Illinois Primary Thread

[Lunar]

Is there some aging politician, like a downstate version of Roland Burris, that would like the grace and prestige of the lt. governor office to end their career?  I checked the non-Chicago Democratic Congressmen and they're all <60, hmm. 

Can Quinn just pick Hynes so that they can work together to abolish the Lt. Governor's office?  I mean, it's far easier to get rid of the office if your lt. gov supports the idea.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

There's the former two-term Blue Dog Congressman David Phelps, who lost to John Shimkus when their districts were merged in 2002. He's an assistant secretary for the Illinois DOT, and is in his 60s.

Hynes might as well just wait until 2014 to run again. Quinn's damaged goods, and it's got to be a tossup at best for him (thanks only to Brady winning the nomination).

[Lunar]

There's the former two-term Blue Dog Congressman David Phelps, who lost to John Shimkus when their districts were merged in 2002. He's an assistant secretary for the Illinois DOT, and is in his 60s.

Hynes might as well just wait until 2014 to run again. Quinn's damaged goods, and it's got to be a tossup at best for him (thanks only to Brady winning the nomination).

Meh, a pro-life anti-gay type might depress progressive Hynes supporters who are already unsure about this race.  I guess every political faction in IL probably has an opinion on who should be on the ticket.  Quinn would be just as well finding the faction that he most needs to cement his relationship with (something which might not be public) and go with whoever they want that's geographically viable.  

Maybe some Hynes-loyalist downstate legislator?  The better connected the better.

[ill ind]

  I think Phelps would be a good choice.  Downstate people didn't vote for Hynes because they were progressives.  They voted for Hynes because he wasn't Quinn.  Downstate Dems tend to be the antithesis of progressives i.e Glen Poshard--progressive in terms of government, but conservative on social issues. 
  Quinn got smoked downstate quite badly, so he would be wise to pick a runningmate who could appeal to downstate Dems.

Ill_Ind

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Hynes might as well just wait until 2014 to run again. Quinn's damaged goods, and it's got to be a tossup at best for him (thanks only to Brady winning the nomination).

Quite frankly, from what I've learned about Dillard over the last several months, I'm not sure that Republicans landed the worst possible scenario here.

Being a moderate doesn't automatically make you awesome.

[ill ind]

Both Cook County suburban, and Chicago itself have updated their vote totals.  As of about noon today, these totals have shaved 45 votes off of Bill Brady's lead bringing his lead over Kirk Dillard down to 375 votes.

(Imagine that--Cook County and Chicago being more efficient than the other counties and counting their absentees at a quicker rate.  Who would have thunk it??)

Ill_Ind

[ill ind]

The City of Chicago has again updated its numbers.  Along with an update yesterday afternoon from Suburban Cook, Brady's lead has been shaved down an additional 13 votes to 362.

Ill_Ind

[Badger]

The pressure to force Cohen off the ballot as LG seems to be at a fever pitch. Sen. Durbin's quote sums up what all the top Dems are saying now “He really should spare himself, and his friends and family what he’s about to go through.”

Is Cohen purchasable? I mean, if he is, the longer he waits up to a point, the higher the price no?

Some sources are saying that he'd like some compensation for the $2M+ he pumped in the race. Other sources are saying that money won't be involved.

The irony is that the IL Constitution gives the legislature the power to pass a law that would have tickets run in the primary as well as the general. Even after the 1986 debacle, they did not invoke that provision to change the law. Yet, here we are again.

Couldn't you guys just shove that through in the next month or so?

Too late. The primary has already passed.

But at least it'll be corrected for next time, right?

[muon2]

The pressure to force Cohen off the ballot as LG seems to be at a fever pitch. Sen. Durbin's quote sums up what all the top Dems are saying now “He really should spare himself, and his friends and family what he’s about to go through.”

Is Cohen purchasable? I mean, if he is, the longer he waits up to a point, the higher the price no?

Some sources are saying that he'd like some compensation for the $2M+ he pumped in the race. Other sources are saying that money won't be involved.

The irony is that the IL Constitution gives the legislature the power to pass a law that would have tickets run in the primary as well as the general. Even after the 1986 debacle, they did not invoke that provision to change the law. Yet, here we are again.

Couldn't you guys just shove that through in the next month or so?

Too late. The primary has already passed.

But at least it'll be corrected for next time, right?

IL Speaker filed a constitutional amendment to abolish the office entirely this week. If that passes, there will be nothing to correct.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Dems will have a token VP governor that have no intentions on running in 2014 like a Tammy Duckworth and then Lisa Madigan, like the Speaker intends on having as Gov will run in 2014.  


It won't be on the ballot in this election cycle because the recall will be on there, perhaps in 2012, but the law won't go into effect until 2014 anyway.

[ill ind]

  Lee County has released its official results from the 2/2 primary.

  It gives Brady 4 additional votes and Dillard 0 additional.  

Brady's lead is now 366 up from 362 in my last post.

Most counties are going to count their absentees by tomorrow (2 weeks after the election) so more official results should be showing up.

Ill_ind

[ill ind]

  Adding on to yesterday:

Carroll, Ford, Logan, and Whiteside Counties have all released official results.

Carroll: Dillard +0, Brady +1
Ford: No change for either
Logan: Dillard +0, Brady +3
Whiteside: Dillard +0, Brady +1

In addition, Cook County, the City of Chicago and Kane County have updated their results

Cook and Chicago: Dillard +24, Brady +8
Kane: Dillard +28, Brady +9

All of these together: Dillard +52, Brady +22

Net gain for Dillard 30 votes.

This reduces Brady's lead from my update yesterday of 366 votes to 336 votes.

Ill_Ind

[rbt48]

How slim does the lead need to become for Dillard to pursue a recount?  Less than 100?  Less than 25?

[ill ind]

  Dillard told Crain's Chicago Business that he would seek a recount if the lead was around 100.

Rural Winnebago County (outside of Rockford) has a new total:  Dillard +6, Brady +4
Du Page County has a new total: Dillard +58, Brady +12
Will County has a new total: Dillard +51, Brady +26

Net Dillard +73

Bill Brady's lead now: 263

Ill_Ind

[ill ind]

New update:

Tazewell County Dillard+4, Brady +6
McHenry County Dillard +1, Brady unchanged
Champaign County  Dilard +6, Brady +12
Sangamon County Dillard +7, Brady +3
Fulton County Dillard +2, Brady unchanged
Pike County Dillard and Brady both unchanged
Shelby County Dillard and Brady both unchanged.

Net Brady increases his lead by 1
Brady now up by 264

Ill_ind

[ill ind]

Lake County is now in too.

Dillard +43
Brady +19

Net for Dillard +24

Brady's lead now 240


Lake is the last Chicago Metropolitan County with the exception of Kendall (the smallest) to report.  Everything else is downstate.

Brady's lead is going to hold up.  This one is over save for a recount.

Ill_ind

[Vosem]

I'd prefer Dillard over Brady (I voted McKenna). I'm wondering whether or not it would be productive to have him (Dillard) pull a Norm Coleman. We are not gonna win with a downstate candidate and it would be even worse if Brady's loss had enough coattails to pull in Giannoulias.

[ill ind]

Update since 2/16

Peoria (County and City): Dillard +48  Brady +24
Ogle:  Dillard +1  Brady +2
Cass : no change
Scott: no change
Clark: no change
Williamson: Dillard - Brady +3
Cook: Dillard +9 Brady +2
Coles: Brady +1
Crawford: no change
Douglas: Dillard +2 Brady +1
Johnson: Dillard +1 Brady +2
Kane including Aurora: Dillard +2  Brady +3
LaSalle: Dillard - Brady +1
McLean including Bloomington: Dillard +9  Brady +22
Morgan: Dillard +1  Brady-

Net from this update:  Dillard +12

Bradys new lead 228

Not going to happen here unless there is a recount.

Ill_Ind

[ill ind]

I can't believe that I'm doing this again.  This will be the last update before 3/5 when the Illinois Board of Elections releases the official results.

from last post Brady +228

New 'official counts'

Boone: Brady +1, Dillard -
Knox (County without the City of Galesburg) Brady +3, Dillard -
Warren: Brady-, Dillard -
Bureau: Brady +1, Dillard +1
DeWitt: Brady +3, Dillard -
Livingston: Brady +1, Dillard -
Macon: Brady +1, Dillard -
Macoupin: Brady-, Dillard -
Madison: Brady +1, Dillard +2
Marshall: Brady-, Dillard -
Piatt: Brady-, Dillard -
Rock Island: Brady +2, Dillard +1
City of Rockford: Brady +1, Dillard +2

Total Brady +11, Dillard +6

Net Brady +5

The lead now extends to Brady +233

Ill_Ind

[Franzl]

Dillard said he would concede if the lead were over 100 votes.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It turned out that Brady or Dillard weren't as strong as they appeared to be right after the primary and Quinn who has lacked enthusiam may very wind up winnijng as well as Giannoulias in what is going to be a very low turnout election.

[Franzl]

It turned out that Brady or Dillard weren't as strong as they appeared to be right after the primary and Quinn who has lacked enthusiam may very wind up winnijng as well as Giannoulias in what is going to be a very low turnout election.

You're basing this off that one Kos poll?

[xavier110]

It turned out that Brady or Dillard weren't as strong as they appeared to be right after the primary and Quinn who has lacked enthusiam may very wind up winnijng as well as Giannoulias in what is going to be a very low turnout election.

You're basing this off that one Kos poll?

With eight months to go before election day too!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

There was a Victory Research poll as well that had Quinn up iby 11 pts.  I'm saying that the GOP cleared the primary for Kirk to win and it didn't help him all that much.

[Franzl]

There was a Victory Research poll as well that had Quinn up iby 11 pts.  I'm saying that the GOP cleared the primary for Kirk to win and it didn't help him all that much.

You realize that Quinn and Kirk are running for seperate offices?