Which Party Will Control Congress?

[nclib]

GOP would need to pick up more than 40 seats to take the House, aka bigger than 2006. That's not going to happen.

Senate is basically impossible.

Agreed. Obama and the Dems aren't in as bad shape electorally as many say.

[Mr.Phips]

My gut feeling at this moment is a one to two seat R gain in the Senate and a slim R majority in the house. That said, we still have a year to go.

If Republicans have enough of a tidal wave in their favor to get the House, they would almost certainly gain more than just a Senate seat or two. 

[The Duke]

I can't see the Republicans gaining fewer than 50 seats.  We are entering the greatest period of political volatility since the Civil War.  Expect wild swings from one party to the other until someone manages to finally solve some of the problems the country faces.

[Хahar 🤔]

I can't see the Republicans gaining fewer than 50 seats.  We are entering the greatest period of political volatility since the Civil War.  Expect wild swings from one party to the other until someone manages to finally solve some of the problems the country faces.

List the 50 that are bound to switch.

[Swing Voter]

I can't see the Republicans gaining fewer than 50 seats.  We are entering the greatest period of political volatility since the Civil War.  Expect wild swings from one party to the other until someone manages to finally solve some of the problems the country faces.

That certainly is a bold prediction, sir.

[Marokai Backbeat]

Yeah I encourage everyone to bookmark that post like I did so we can bump that prediction in a year.

[minionofmidas]

I can't see the Republicans gaining fewer than 50 seats.  We are entering the greatest period of political volatility since the Civil War.  Expect wild swings from one party to the other until someone manages to finally solve some of the problems the country faces.

Yeah I encourage everyone to bookmark that post like I did so we can bump that prediction in a year.

Actually, it's the last half-sentence of that post that's basically just fucking retarded, not the part you all are upset about. Republicans retaking the House on such a wave is a little unlikely - it certainly wouldn't be happening if the election were today, though all the recent southern gains would be gone -  but it is not impossible.

[Eraserhead]

House: Democrats
Senate: Democrats

[Rowan]

After the health care vote, all bets are off.

[Eraserhead]

After the health care vote, all bets are off.

Hardly, Rowan.

[nhmagic]

Senate: Democrats
House: Republicans

Healthcare reform will cause the democrats to lose in a landslide in 2010.  They openly declared war on the American people with their vote yesterday.  Republicans will win around 50 house seats and 6-7 senate seats.

[Franzl]

DEMs retain both the House and the Senate.

Anybody who considers any other scenario likely is a hack.

[The Duke]

I can't see the Republicans gaining fewer than 50 seats.  We are entering the greatest period of political volatility since the Civil War.  Expect wild swings from one party to the other until someone manages to finally solve some of the problems the country faces.

List the 50 that are bound to switch.

This is a stupid question to ask because at this point in the ’08 cycle no one would have thought ID-1 was vulnerable.  And if someone had posted on this board that ID-1 was vulnerable they would have been skewered.  Seats end up getting lost in wave elections that you never would have thought would get lost.

Who in 1993 was predicting that Tom Foley would lose his seat?

But I will answer nonetheless.

Here are the 43 seats where I think Republicans have a better than 50/50 shot:
AL-2, AL-5, AZ-5, AZ-8, CA-11, CO-3, CO-4, FL-8, FL-22, FL-24, GA-8, ID-1, IL-8, IL-11, IL-14, IN-8, IN-9, LA-3, MI-7, MI-9, MN-1, MS-1, NH-1, NH-2, NJ-3, NM-2, NY-20, NY-23, NY-29, NC-11, OH-15, OH-16, OH-18, PA-3, PA-4, PA-7, PA-8, PA-10, TX-23, VA-2, VA-5, VA-9, WI-8

Here are the 17 seats where we will have about a 50/50 shot:
FL-2, GA-12, IN-2, IA-3, KS-3, KY-3, MD-1, NY-9, NY-19, NY-24, NC-8, PA-11, TX-17, TX-27, TX-28, WV-1, WV-3

Here are the 17 long shot seats that are in play only in a wave or with the right candidate:
CA-47, MS-4, MO-4, NY-1, NC-2, NC-7, ND-AL, OK-2, PA-12, PA-17, SC-5, SD-AL, TN-4, TN-6, UT-2, WA-3, WI-7

[Lunar]

You already have a 50-50 shot at those seats? Weiner?  Really?

[The Duke]

You already have a 50-50 shot at those seats? Weiner?  Really?

Isn't Weiner NY-5?

[The Duke]

I see what I did.  I meant NY-13, the Staten Island district.

[Sbane]

Healthcare reform will cause the democrats to lose in a landslide in 2010.  They openly declared war on the American people with their vote yesterday. 

Protecting the people from practices such as denying coverage for pre-existing conditions is declaring war on them? Helping insure most of the uninsured by just raising taxes on the top 1-2% is declaring war on them? Welcome to the batsh**t insane list.

[War on Want]

Actually there were plenty of people in late 2007/early 2008 that though ID-1 was vulnerable...

[Mechaman]

Your mom will control congress, in bed.

[Mechaman]

A GOP take over of the House is possible, but not likely.  

There is no chance in hell of the GOP winning a majority in the Senate.  They'd have to win 11 seats in addition to defending every single one they now hold, several of which are in swing states with retiring incumbents.

This.
Unless the Democrats have an epic clusterf**k of mistakes over the next year that makes 1994 look like a picnic I really REALLY don't see how they will lose the Senate. The House however is a different story. We are now entering an era of polarization that hasn't been seen since the immediate post Civil War Era-1920. The Democratic and Republican parties are going to undergo serious change in the next 20-30 years, if not sooner. The Democratic and Republican parties of 2009 are going to be unrecognizable to those of 2029.

I can't see the Republicans gaining fewer than 50 seats.  We are entering the greatest period of political volatility since the Civil War.  Expect wild swings from one party to the other until someone manages to finally solve some of the problems the country faces.

The first sentence is a maybe on my part, but other than that I feel the Duke is right on the matter.

[Mr.Phips]

I can't see the Republicans gaining fewer than 50 seats.  We are entering the greatest period of political volatility since the Civil War.  Expect wild swings from one party to the other until someone manages to finally solve some of the problems the country faces.

List the 50 that are bound to switch.

This is a stupid question to ask because at this point in the ’08 cycle no one would have thought ID-1 was vulnerable.  And if someone had posted on this board that ID-1 was vulnerable they would have been skewered.  Seats end up getting lost in wave elections that you never would have thought would get lost.

Who in 1993 was predicting that Tom Foley would lose his seat?

But I will answer nonetheless.

Here are the 43 seats where I think Republicans have a better than 50/50 shot:
AL-2, AL-5, AZ-5, AZ-8, CA-11, CO-3, CO-4, FL-8, FL-22, FL-24, GA-8, ID-1, IL-8, IL-11, IL-14, IN-8, IN-9, LA-3, MI-7, MI-9, MN-1, MS-1, NH-1, NH-2, NJ-3, NM-2, NY-20, NY-23, NY-29, NC-11, OH-15, OH-16, OH-18, PA-3, PA-4, PA-7, PA-8, PA-10, TX-23, VA-2, VA-5, VA-9, WI-8

CA-11? AZ-08? CO-03? FL-22?  IL-08?  IL-11?  IN-08?  IN-09?  MI-09? MN-01?  NY-20?  NC-11?  OH-16?  OH-18?  PA-04?  PA-08?  VA-09?  WI-08?  Are you freakin serious?  Have you seen some of the crappy(or nonexistant) candidates Republicans have in these seats?

[Mr.Phips]

Senate: Democrats
House: Republicans

Healthcare reform will cause the democrats to lose in a landslide in 2010.  They openly declared war on the American people with their vote yesterday.  Republicans will win around 50 house seats and 6-7 senate seats.

Yeah, not passing healthcare reform helped Democrats greatly in 1994, right?

[Vepres]

Senate: Democrats
House: Republicans

Healthcare reform will cause the democrats to lose in a landslide in 2010.  They openly declared war on the American people with their vote yesterday.  Republicans will win around 50 house seats and 6-7 senate seats.

Yeah, not passing healthcare reform helped Democrats greatly in 1994, right?

They're in a damned if you damned if you don't situation.

[nhmagic]

Senate: Democrats
House: Republicans

Healthcare reform will cause the democrats to lose in a landslide in 2010.  They openly declared war on the American people with their vote yesterday.  Republicans will win around 50 house seats and 6-7 senate seats.

Yeah, not passing healthcare reform helped Democrats greatly in 1994, right?

That is only one of two explanations and we are going to find out which one is correct in 2010.

Democrats go by that interpretation.
Republicans say that it was because they were trying to pass something that Americans did not want.

Americans did not want this bill that the house passed - that much is clear and I tend to think the second explanation will be the one that is correct.

Additionally, we don't just have to flip congressional seats in Republican leaning districts to win a majority.  Dem leaning districts will be up for grabs just as republican leaning districts were in 2006.  So we won't need to win every single one of the Bush/McCain congressional districts back to assemble the majority.  Obviously, that will be part of it - a decent size part, but we will pick up Obama districts as well.

[Mr.Phips]

Senate: Democrats
House: Republicans

Healthcare reform will cause the democrats to lose in a landslide in 2010.  They openly declared war on the American people with their vote yesterday.  Republicans will win around 50 house seats and 6-7 senate seats.

Yeah, not passing healthcare reform helped Democrats greatly in 1994, right?

That is only one of two explanations and we are going to find out which one is correct in 2010.

Democrats go by that interpretation.
Republicans say that it was because they were trying to pass something that Americans did not want.

Americans did not want this bill that the house passed - that much is clear and I tend to think the second explanation will be the one that is correct.

Additionally, we don't just have to flip congressional seats in Republican leaning districts to win a majority.  Dem leaning districts will be up for grabs just as republican leaning districts were in 2006.  So we won't need to win every single one of the Bush/McCain congressional districts back to assemble the majority.  Obviously, that will be part of it - a decent size part, but we will pick up Obama districts as well.

Which Obama districts other than OH-01, OH-15, FL-08, and maybe PA-07 and NH-02 will Republicans pick up?  In 2006, Democrats only picked up thirty seats.