IA-SEN 2020: Ernst megathread

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

It's really depressing. Ernst ran one of the worst campaigns this entire cycle and just personally, just seems like an awful fit for IA. How people in that state like her is beyond me. Greenfield genuinely seemed like a good person and someone who cared about IA

For what it's worth, IASEN was closer than TX, KS, MT, etc. so everyone suggesting Ernst was much safer than the Republicans there should be eating crow, too.

[Xing]

Yeah, Ernst won, but she's also one of the only Republicans to underperform Trump. Even James, Tillis, and Perdue are overperforming Trump. Pretty clear that she won purely because Iowa is a red state, and not because she's a "Strong Candidate" or "Folksy."

[VAR]

I think this race will be a redux of MO-SEN 2018. Here’s how: 1) The Republican is initially viewed as a “strong candidate” 2) Then people focus on how “bad” or “lackluster” a campaign he/she has run 3) call the race a “pure tossup” when it clearly isn’t 4) ignore the fundamentals 5) act surprised when the Republican candidate outperforms the polls.

it IS a pure tossup though. and the fundamentals are not good for Trump/Rs right now, especially in a state like IA when his support is collapsing in the midwest.

I think this race will be a redux of MO-SEN 2018. Here’s how: 1) The Republican is initially viewed as a “strong candidate” 2) Then people focus on how “bad” or “lackluster” a campaign he/she has run 3) call the race a “pure tossup” when it clearly isn’t 4) ignore the fundamentals 5) act surprised when the Republican candidate outperforms the polls.

Except McCaskill was never a strong candidate in 2018 to begin with, and she constantly struggled in the polls.

I think this race will be a redux of MO-SEN 2018. Here’s how: 1) The Republican is initially viewed as a “strong candidate” 2) Then people focus on how “bad” or “lackluster” a campaign he/she has run 3) call the race a “pure tossup” when it clearly isn’t 4) ignore the fundamentals 5) act surprised when the Republican candidate outperforms the polls.

Except McCaskill was never a strong candidate in 2018 to begin with, and she constantly struggled in the polls.

Not to mention the fact that Missouri is a more Republican state than Iowa.

I think this race will be a redux of MO-SEN 2018. Here’s how: 1) The Republican is initially viewed as a “strong candidate” 2) Then people focus on how “bad” or “lackluster” a campaign he/she has run 3) call the race a “pure tossup” when it clearly isn’t 4) ignore the fundamentals 5) act surprised when the Republican candidate outperforms the polls.

- McCaskill trailed in most polls.

- McCaskill had been consistently unpopular for years. There was an absolutely vicious Republican smear campaign against her that literally began back in 2016.

- Hawley had a Kavanaugh bump right at the end. Missourians are totally unable to resist culture war red meat.

I will now accept my accolades . Ernst and Hawley won by identical margins too.

[KaiserDave]

Of course you were right here, but the fact that the margin was the same as MO-SEN 2018 either speaks on 2018's hard D lean, or Ernst's weaknesses. Probably the former.

[MT Treasurer]

IceSpear also deserves accolades because this...

I can't wait until she makes some "gaffe" that only Dem hacks care about like in 2014 (or like Cramer's "Akin comments" this year) and everyone moves it to toss up/lean D.

...is precisely what happened throughout the campaign, especially after ‘soybeangate.’

[Calthrina950]

IceSpear also deserves accolades because this...

I can't wait until she makes some "gaffe" that only Dem hacks care about like in 2014 (or like Cramer's "Akin comments" this year) and everyone moves it to toss up/lean D.

...is precisely what happened throughout the campaign, especially after ‘soybeangate.’

IceSpear could see the results of this year's election coming from a mile away. He'd be back on top this time after what happened in Kentucky last year.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yeah when you a Socialistic Veep AA in Harris and she did lousy in IA caucuses and not Whitmer or Klobuchar, whom would of been better Veep's and with Kim Reynolds approvals are high, you are gonna get Daines, Cornyn, Tillis and Ernst winning.

Harris was overrated as a Veep

[Hope For A New Era]

I think this race will be a redux of MO-SEN 2018. Here’s how: 1) The Republican is initially viewed as a “strong candidate” 2) Then people focus on how “bad” or “lackluster” a campaign he/she has run 3) call the race a “pure tossup” when it clearly isn’t 4) ignore the fundamentals 5) act surprised when the Republican candidate outperforms the polls.

- McCaskill trailed in most polls.

- McCaskill had been consistently unpopular for years. There was an absolutely vicious Republican smear campaign against her that literally began back in 2016.

- Hawley had a Kavanaugh bump right at the end. Missourians are totally unable to resist culture war red meat.

I will now accept my accolades . Ernst and Hawley won by identical margins too.

okay, fair

accolades granted

She won for different reasons than Hawley, though.

[VAR]

OC, before the election:

Ernst is a weak incumbent

Biden will win OH and Ernst is gone by the way

Biden is gonna win Iowa next Tuesday anyways due to Ernst losing 6/9 polls and we can put an end to the silly GOP taking pts once for all about safe R IA.

Collins and Ernst are DOA

Ernst is done

So much for Indy Rep Safe Ernst😆😆😆

Ernst is finished

Kim Reynolds is vulnerable to a Scholten challenge in 2022

OC, after the election:

Reynolds, Collins and Ernst are very popular even among Dems..

Greenfield and HEGAR and Bollier overblown candidates

Joni Ernst is just as popular as Kim Reynolds, as long as both remain in office, they will keep winning

Kim Reynolds is very popular and as long as she remains at Gov, Ernst and Grassley are gonna get reelected

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yeah Biden is a good fit for IA and OH, Harris isn't and I wanted Harris for Prez not Veep, a pragmatist as Veep would have done better with Biden or Harris to capture IA, Whitmer or Klobuchar would of helped D's win IA.  Harris should of been on the ticket as Prez only, she isn't that great as a Veep candidate, after the Veep debate, she was an empty suit.

But, she probably is better at governing than campaigning anyways

Klobuchar did better than Harris in IA caucuses than Harris or Warren

Just like John Edwards turned out to be an empty suit as Veep, but was a better Prez candidate

[GALeftist]

https://twitter.com/RobSandIA/status/1352417207377162240

Bruh please just run for governor. Senate is unwinnable