China

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Multi party democracy.

What are you basing that on?

[Beet]

Multi party democracy.

What are you basing that on?

History of countries that become rich? [shrugs]

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Multi party democracy.

What are you basing that on?

History of countries that become rich? [shrugs]

That isn't a good idea.

[Beet]

Multi party democracy.

What are you basing that on?

History of countries that become rich? [shrugs]

That isn't a good idea.

Why not?

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Multi party democracy.

What are you basing that on?

History of countries that become rich? [shrugs]

That isn't a good idea.

Why not?

Well for a start using comparative history is always problematic when making predictions especially when taking about a country with such a nationalist, xenophobic and internalistic history like China.

Second of all I would take issue with the idea that wealth = democracy. I reckon the world is mostly democratic today because the US and the UK happened to win all three of the major world conflicts of the 20th Century. In many developing countries actually it seems the more 'developed' it becomes the less democratic it gets - look at the history of Africa since colonization or many Latin American countries since about 1860 to the end of 1980s (though that admittely might be cause and effect).

Thirdly, why would the Communist Party simply force itself out of office?

[Beet]

Why does any ruling party ever lose power? Ruling parties are only a part of society. Society sometimes changes to the point where it's monopoly is no longer needed.

Latin America today is more prosperous than it has ever been, and also more democratic. Sure, lots of poor countries have unstable democracies, but once a certain level of development is reached, pressure for democratization sets in. I don't think this trend is based solely on wars. Europe was moving towards democracy before World War I.

The biggest risk to democracy is not that authoritarian systems will prove immovable but that democratic systems self- destruct. E.g., the breakup of the Soviet Union, just like what you've been talking about here. That was a huge blow to democracy in China because China obviously doesn't want to be broken up. The biggest argument of the authoritarians there is that democracy is inevitably coupled with Russia style disaster.

Other ways democracy can self destruct is illegitimate or disputed elections, parliamentary systems that produce nothing but gridlock, and hyper polarization.

Ultimately, wealth in society leads to greater expectations of people being well treated, and this in turn leads to democracy. China may be nationalist, xenophobic and internalistic, but it is also secular. There are nationalistic and xenophobic sentiments, and these sentiments might find various expressions, but you don't have the fixed, centralized doctrine; you don't have the entrench clerical oligarchy, you don't have the intense personal and spiritual investment that comes with religion. Chinese conservatism and insularity is disorganized, disoriented. It will never recover from the blows of the 20th century. Old line Confucianism isn't really coming back.

[2952-0-0]

What a lot of armchair experts here who are stuck in the Cold War.

First, no, China is not the Soviet Union. When one dominant ethnic group is 93% of the population (and much of the remaining 7% are mixed Han/minority who declare themselves as minority in order to qualify for affirmative action schemes), there will be no Yugoslav-style collapse.

Second, I can foresee a crisis which causes Tibet and Xinjiang to split up (but not Inner Mongolia, which is 80% Han), but they will quickly become totally dependent on their vast new neighbour. Tibetan schoolchildren and businessmen will still be required to learn Mandarin to succeed. Almost all the trade will be conducted with their new neighbour. Perhaps they will depend on it for military protection. By this point any sense of independence becomes blurred.

Third, I'm not aware of any country descending into civil war after its economy has grown above a certain point.

Fourth, any notion that Chinese culture is incompatible with democracy and liberalism is nonsense. Korea and Japan prove that Confucian values can coexist with liberalism (the former proves how one culture can form two totally opposite regimes). Taiwan *is* Chinese, and has been democratic for 20 years without much trouble. Hong Kong (under the flag of the PRC, no less) *is* Chinese and *does* have democratic and western values, and has been that way for decades without any trouble. No doubt the latter two will do much more to promote those values in the PRC than anything else will.

Fifth, if anything Korea and Japan are more xenophobic and nationalistic, since their small size enables a culture which is uniform across the entire country with little foreign influence.  Many provinces in China are more culturally diverse than those two liberal, democratic countries. So any cultural explanations for the dictatorship is nonsense.

Finally, it is possible for the Communist Party to relinquish power. Supposedly "free" China, a.k.a. the Republic of China in Taiwan, was ruled by an authoritarian dictatorship until the late 1980s when controls were gradually loosened. In 1990 students demonstrated in Taipei demanding democracy, which the government had no choice but to accept.

People need to accept that this isn't the 1980s and there is no evil empire to bluster about

[Psychic Octopus]

Fascist dictatorship, as it is currently.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Dean, While I bow to those more knowledgable I have to say a few things:

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How would such a crisis occur? If those states became independent that I could see is what would happen but why China let them - however is governing it - especially considering the investment China has put into the two places.

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Yes, yes. But history is full of exceptions and doesn't follow 'laws'. There is no guarantee that a civil war won't happen in a modern economy just because it hasn't happened before. Which is not, I should say, to say I think China will descend into civil war. I was merely pointing out to Disraeli the differences between China and the Soviet Union and that the CCCP had a system of clearly delineated 'republics' while China does not. What I didn't say was that China would collapse.

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If this a reference to my comment "country with such a nationalist, xenophobic and internalistic history like China" that wasn't to give a cultural spin against democracy or anything like that. My point was China's history and position means that it does not necessarily have to follow the 'laws of history' - because X country reached democracy at a certain point, does not mean China has to also. China's political-economic development is an issue of China, what happens in the rest of the world is not wholly applicable.

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But is there the popular will or position do to so?

Also, Japan = Liberal? Really? Democratic yes, but Liberal is not something that would particularly strike me about the country (though of course its government is much more liberal than the CCP...)

[2952-0-0]

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Like they happen in the past when dynasties lose their authority: perhaps a major social/economic downturn hits, which diminishes the authority of the Party. This coincides with a tide of liberalism, which in the two areas turns into a tide of virulent nationalism. The military is divided, and somehow a declaration of independence is made out. The military is unable or unwilling to stop them. But in any way, it will be fairly easy for the new, reduced China to "buy back" the two, just as Hong Kong and Taiwan are being "bought out".

It's also clever that the Tibet Autonomous Region only covers a part of the area considered Tibetan: most of western Sichuan and all of Qinghai are also considered Tibetan, which could run into issues in the future.

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The ethnic identity is old enough to make a Yugoslav-style collapse a non-starter. State collapse, on the other hand, is not entirely impossible, but the barriers to launching a revolt are much higher now than they have ever been.

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But what happens in areas with a culture that is highly influenced by China is applicable. Korea and Japan are arguably more isolationist and submissive of authority, yet they are liberal democracies (imperfect ones, but democracies nonetheless). Taiwan and Hong Kong share the same culture and language, and liberalism is prevalent in both of them (the former is an immature democracy, while the latter is a mature semi-democracy).

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Currently the authority of the Party and the Party's dirty tricks are enough to suppress any calls for reform. But this cannot go on forever. When the KMT fled to Taiwan and declared martial law, it was a "temporary" measure until the Communist Party was defeated. The British didn't care about democracy in Hong Kong (perhaps why it was and still is the most free market place on earth), until the years after the Tiananmen Square protests when it became a priority. Anything can cause the Party's authority to be tarnished, and the public will be sure to take advantage of it.

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Japan is not entirely good examples of liberalism, and the culture is more submissive of authority. In China there is no pressure to "know your place", and the saying that "the nail that sticks out is beaten by the hammer" is unknown. There are no complex language rules about speaking to people of different status. In this sense China is much more liberal and fluid than a supposedly democratic country.

[Beet]

Of course, Japan, Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, etc. were all Western colonies or puppets at one point.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Of course, Japan, Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, etc. were all Western colonies or puppets at one point.

So was much of mainland China.

[Beet]

Of course, Japan, Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, etc. were all Western colonies or puppets at one point.

So was much of mainland China.

Yeah but the pertinent point is that Japan 1945, Korea 1988, Taiwan 1989, Hong Kong 1997 were all Western colonies or puppets (or 'allies' if you prefer), at the time they transitioned their political systems.