China

[Purple State]

Other. More democratic than it is now, possibly focusing on local democracies, while power at the national level will be concentrated in some form of dictatorship. This is necessary to alleviate much of the local conflict and harmful policies that the local governments fail to address for lack of accountability while the national government fails for lack of capability.

There needs to be some way for the people of China to have their voices heard for the good of the nation. Environment, for one, is a major factor in rural China, with major issues rising to the forefront due to rapid industrialization.

[Sam Spade]

I disagree with Sam Spade on this point: bad economic times lead to more freedoms and more democracy, not less (although the extremely immediate impacts can't be denied).

Well, first off, I think I spoke of the near future, not of 2050 (I can't see that far ahead).  And as for "extremely immediate impacts", I have no clue what that means.

In general, I disagree with your premise, as really bad economic times tends to make people willing to trade freedom for security, with a few notable country exceptions that come to mind.  I tend to believe that this present epoch (which, btw, is really just beginning in this regard) will probably be no different.

[Lunar]

I wouldn't be surprised if China goes through the typical developmental cycle of increased and decreased freedom.

However, China tends to be pragmatic instead of being based off of individual dictator personalities.  They're willing to grant more freedom if it gains them more than it loses them.  Their rulers are more concerned with amoral efficiency (with acknowledgment that international condemnation = bad) than irrational power, which is sort of unusual for such powers, I'd say.

/read a lot a lot about the Chinese political system, too lazy to elaborate



I'd bet more than a third of my money that China will be a "democracy" by 2050.  Without the quotation marks?  I wouldn't bet on it.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

China is a screwed up country that we're seriously indebted thanks to Bush's massive deficit spending, and the fact that the mess he left us means that now isn't the time to seriously cut spending and raise taxes.

[big bad fab]

China may become an autocratic semi-democracy, as Mahatir's Malaysia was.

The real problem related to this thread is:

who will bump it in 2050 to see who is right ?!?

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Other.

I think China have been at its top concerning economy and that know it will just decrease. I think the economical crisis would hardly touch it, as the rest of the world. I think the regime would be in huge troubles because of economical, so social, so political crisis. I think that this regime would swing a lot and would try to use force in his homeland and maybe outside of it, it will depend of the international strategical global relationships in the times to come. I think no matter it uses force inside or outside the homeland, it will fail. I think the revolts would win because a lot (peasants plus working-class, so 1.1 billion of people) will have nothing to lose.

I think that the fall of this regime would lead to the brink of the country between several big provinces, that ones (except of Muslim and Tibetan ones maybe) could stay united in a kinda EU-like, maybe the ASEAN.

I also think, and maybe here you gonna think I'm crazy, but well, I assume, that the result of the falling of the current regime would lead to a politico-religious evangelical regime, because that would be the only strong direction to follow proposed to people. People fight hard for big things in which they believe, there I don't see them fighting for some kind of political ideas when evangelicals, who, even forbidden there, are already with about 100 to 200 millions of believers in countrysides, would surely propose them to fight for "Freedom in the name of God". Chinese who are already a population which in its majority seems to be used to mass culture, which has erased a lot of their past culture, and which is used by their media to simple conceptualizations of the world. That could be also encouraged by the US in order to make a friendly regime, especially if all of this happens after Obama, with a republican.

Well, that's just what I think but as much as it can sound crazy I'm serious!

[Verily]

China is a screwed up country that we're seriously indebted thanks to Bush's massive deficit spending, and the fact that the mess he left us means that now isn't the time to seriously cut spending and raise taxes.

Are you seriously not capable of talking about anything without complaining about Bush?

[dead0man]

It will likely break up.

[Frodo]

Anyone else want to take a stab at this? 

[Bo]

China is a communist dictatorship in name only right now. In reality, it is more of a fascist dictatorship (since it has a market, rather than a command, economy). It is likely to remain that way in 2050, even though there is a chance that it will become a multi-party democracy by then. However, I personally don't see democracy coming to China until after 2050.

[k-onmmunist]

China is a communist dictatorship in name only right now. In reality, it is more of a fascist dictatorship (since it has a market, rather than a command, economy). It is likely to remain that way in 2050, even though there is a chance that it will become a multi-party democracy by then. However, I personally don't see democracy coming to China until after 2050.

You're right, but China isn't free market. It is corporatist.

[Bo]

China is a communist dictatorship in name only right now. In reality, it is more of a fascist dictatorship (since it has a market, rather than a command, economy). It is likely to remain that way in 2050, even though there is a chance that it will become a multi-party democracy by then. However, I personally don't see democracy coming to China until after 2050.

You're right, but China isn't free market. It is corporatist.

China has a free-market. It is regulated by the govt. but it is still (mostly) free. There are little restrictions on trading within the market. The Soviet Union (and Cuba and North Korea), on the other hand, did not have a free market. In China, the means of production are in private ownership. In the U.S.S.R., they were govt.-owned.

[k-onmmunist]

China is a communist dictatorship in name only right now. In reality, it is more of a fascist dictatorship (since it has a market, rather than a command, economy). It is likely to remain that way in 2050, even though there is a chance that it will become a multi-party democracy by then. However, I personally don't see democracy coming to China until after 2050.

You're right, but China isn't free market. It is corporatist.

China has a free-market. It is regulated by the govt. but it is still (mostly) free. There are little restrictions on trading within the market. The Soviet Union (and Cuba and North Korea), on the other hand, did not have a free market. In China, the means of production are in private ownership. In the U.S.S.R., they were govt.-owned.

Doesn't change the fact they are supported by the state, much like they were in Italy.

[RIP Robert H Bork]

Option 1.

[Bo]

It will likely break up.

lol

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

It will likely break up.

lol

lol

[Bo]

It will likely break up.

lol

lol

China is like the unbreakable Red Dragon. It cannot be scattered like the Soviet Union. It is too closely interknit.

[Хahar 🤔]

It will likely break up.

lol

lol

China is like the unbreakable Red Dragon. It cannot be scattered like the Soviet Union. It is too closely interknit.

75 years ago, China had no central government.

[k-onmmunist]

China is hardly the homogenous superstate Westerners think it is.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

China is hardly the homogenous superstate Westerners think it is.

True but unlike the Soviet Union there isn't a clearly delineated alternative (the CCCP always had its constituent republics, relics of its idealistic phase really but important boundaries.... China has... no it's provinces are not the same thing).

[k-onmmunist]

China is hardly the homogenous superstate Westerners think it is.

True but unlike the Soviet Union there isn't a clearly delineated alternative (the CCCP always had its constituent republics, relics of its idealistic phase really but important boundaries.... China has... no it's provinces are not the same thing).

Yeah, pretty much. Any breakup would involve a good deal of wrangling and inter-state wars.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Well, seems big pieces of the cake would easily go, Tibet and Xinjiang easily comes to mind, that's mostly what I thought about personally, Inner Mongolia could follow too in case of a general overthrow of the regime, for the most evident guesses. As I had already said a long time ago, I think that, maybe outside of Tibet and Xinjinag, if the communist regime is effectively overthrown - and once again, seeing the scale and the state of the peasantry and of the basic and industrial workers, and those who are inner immigrants, and the contempt in which this part of the population is maintained, I think that's possible, can we really speak of a middle class when it only applies to 20% of a country? - a kind of EU thing could take place between the remaining provinces, or maybe just a federation, US or Germany like.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Well, seems big pieces of the cake would easily go, Tibet and Xinjiang easily comes to mind, that's mostly what I thought about personally, Inner Mongolia could follow too in case of a general overthrow of the regime, for the most evident guesses. As I had already said a long time ago, I think that, maybe outside of Tibet and Xinjinag, if the communist regime is effectively overthrown - and once again, seeing the scale and the state of the peasantry and of the basic and industrial workers, and those who are inner immigrants, and the contempt in which this part of the population is maintained, I think that's possible, can we really speak of a middle class when it only applies to 20% of a country? - a kind of EU thing could take place between the remaining provinces, or maybe just a federation, US or Germany like.

How much of the modern populations of Tibet and Xijiang are Han? Are how good are the inter-ethnic relationships in Xinjiang (Like say between Uighers and Kazakhs)?

Anyway I highly doubt China will break up in the future. The breakup of the CCCP was due to its own particular circumstances.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Well, seems big pieces of the cake would easily go, Tibet and Xinjiang easily comes to mind, that's mostly what I thought about personally, Inner Mongolia could follow too in case of a general overthrow of the regime, for the most evident guesses. As I had already said a long time ago, I think that, maybe outside of Tibet and Xinjinag, if the communist regime is effectively overthrown - and once again, seeing the scale and the state of the peasantry and of the basic and industrial workers, and those who are inner immigrants, and the contempt in which this part of the population is maintained, I think that's possible, can we really speak of a middle class when it only applies to 20% of a country? - a kind of EU thing could take place between the remaining provinces, or maybe just a federation, US or Germany like.

How much of the modern populations of Tibet and Xijiang are Han? Are how good are the inter-ethnic relationships in Xinjiang (Like say between Uighers and Kazakhs)?

Anyway I highly doubt China will break up in the future. The breakup of the CCCP was due to its own particular circumstances.

Well, yes, the Han question is of course a good one in Tibet and Xinjiang, I personally can't answer, according to the different things I heard about it until now, I built myself a kind of mental image that would give a big maximum of 50% of Hans there, though I can't come with a precise source/figure, and I don't know if the central power is aware of the numbers too. The 'feeling' I have according to the developments of last years in these both provinces, is that the 'original' ethnicities of these provinces would take over the Hans in case of a weakening of the central power, and would break with it.

I think the only way to put the central power in difficulties would be the economy, not being optimistic for the future of global economy, and this partly because not being optimistic in the geopolitics realm, if the peasants/basic industrial workers/inner immigrants see that the Chinese economical machine no more work, then why continuing to accept the contempt of the regime which can sometimes take very nasty forms, that would also suit with a 'culture' of peasant revolts there, well for the few I know aobut the history of the country. In a global pessimistic scenario, I think the odds for China to break up within the decade can be considered.

[Beet]

Multi party democracy.