China

[Frodo]

Go....

[Undisguised Sockpuppet]

China is fascist not commie. THe only connections to communism it has now is the name of the ruling party.

[Frodo]

As long as the Chinese Communist Party remains in power, and continues to call itself by such, so I will continue to call China a communist dictatorship.

[phk]

Single-party (Chinese Communist Party) ultra-capitalist state (similar to Singapore).

[Jaggerjack]

I really don't know (it's too far out to tell)

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

It is likely to seek to follow the Singapore model, but I doubt it can.

China is simply too large.

A federal capitalist oligarchy in the mode of Mexico under the PRI, circa 1950, is one likely possibility.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

It is likely to seek to follow the Singapore model, but I doubt it can.

China is simply too large.

A federal capitalist oligarchy in the mode of Mexico under the PRI, circa 1950, is one likely possibility.

Well, pretty much... that or the complete breakdown of the country once recession hits. I have no doubt though that the Chinese Communist party will soon stage 'elections'.

[phk]

If any breakdown were to occur, I would suspect Tibet and the Western Muslim fringes of the country would but the Chinese government is clever to encourage Han settlement in places like Xinjiang and Tibet.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

If any breakdown were to occur, I would suspect Tibet and the Western Muslim fringes of the country would but the Chinese government is clever to encourage Han settlement in places like Xinjiang and Tibet.

You mean like how the Soviet government was clever to encourage Russian settlement in the other republics of the USSR?  Thanks to the one child policy, I suspect that there will be significant re-migration of the Han back to the traditional Han territory once their demographic bubble busts and the flow of rural migrants to the cities slows because they've run out of people to go.  Won't happen for several decades at least, but it is likely to happen.

[Padfoot]

If/When the Chinese Communist Party collapses I imagine many parts of China will fuse with neighboring countries (Chinese controlled Kashmir) or become independent nations (Taiwan, Tibet, Macau, Hong Kong and possibly the other autonomous regions).  I guess my prediction is essentially a Chinese-replay of the collapse of the USSR in which there will still be a large area known as China but many smaller areas will break off. 

I think China is approaching a tipping point that will reach its peak sometime after the 2008 Olympics.  This is sort of a superstitious prediction based on some loosely tied historic events but hear me out. 

Ok we'll start with Germany and the 1936 Olympics in Berlin.  Less than ten years after hosting these games Hilter was dead and Germany lost WWII after attempting to take over Europe.

Next we have Russia and the 1980 Games in Moscow.  Again less than a decade later we had the collapse of the Berlin Wall and the crumbling of communist governments throughout the Eastern bloc.  And finally the end came for the USSR in 1991.

In 2008 China will have the Olympics and once again they will be in the capital city.  Will China be having the same bad luck those other "evil empires" did merely a decade after hosting one of the most prestigious events in the world?

I am in no way suggesting that the Olympics are some sort of magic wand capable of bringing about the destruction of fascists and communists.  However, I do think that there is a link between the Olympics and the spectacular downfalls of Germany and Russia.  Hosting the Olympics gives a nation the opportunity to showcase itself on the world stage.  Bully nations seeking to show the world their might are naturally attracted to such an event.  However what these nations don't seem to realize is that when you open your doors to the entire world a lot more comes in than you might want to.  You also run the risk of exposing your weak points to the entire world as you are put under the microscope.  Essentially, opening up to the world means that you're going to have to face facts and start admitting your faults.  The Olympics are a symbolic event that can trigger small events leading to the end for those who hate freedom.

I'm not sure what I'm expecting to happen to China from 2008-2018, all I know is that something big will probably happen to reshape the country as we know it. 

[2952-0-0]

It's much more likely that a new generation of western-educated leaders will take over the Communist bureaucracy sometime in the next decade. Each time a new generation takes over the party, they always, must, absolutely have a guiding catch-phrase:

Mao Zedong's Thoughts (under Mao)
Deng Xiaoping's Theories (which first unleashed the economic boom)
Socialism with Chinese Characteristics (essentially lip service claiming that they still want socialism)
Three Represents (representing economic growth, cultural development, political stability)

And the current one is Building a Harmonious Society,indicating that they are aware of the inequalities and the need to smoothen them out. They've shown genuine desire by abolishing rural taxes, trying to force factories to pay wages on time, trying controlling pollution, etc (on the other hand corrupt local officials treat their areas like a fiefdom and ignore what the central leadership says).

Some time next decade, another generation (most of whom have been overseas and seen democracy) will take over, and by that time the GDP per head will have surpassed a threshold that makes democracy inevitable. Once that happens either a wave of populism sweeps in (similar to current leftists in Latin America) or we get something like India with a stable democracy but fractured in practice.

It's pretty much impossible that Hong Kong or Macau could ever become independent, since those two cities depend so much on the mainland's needs for services. Besides, once democracy arrives in Beijing it's sure that it will have come several years before that (right now they are free, but only partially democratic with appointed leaders, somewhat like British colonies). As for Taiwan, it's anyone's guess how or whether they rejoin (on the other hand it's less than impossible they will secede), given the unpredictable politics of the island. Tibet and Xinjiang might be granted autonomy, but I'm sure even a liberal leadership would suppress separatism.

As for the next few years, there might be a tiny bit more freedom as the government has realized that criticism is constructive. Don't forget that it was a dissident who uncovered some product safety scandals.

[Democratic Hawk]

Remian a Communist (in name only) dictatorship. The state still appears to be all too powerful

Dave

[Undisguised Sockpuppet]

China probably won't ever become liberal democratic. I could see it being something like singapore though.

[Stranger in a strange land]

China right now is what I would describe as "soft fascist." Communism has been pretty much dismantled. Chinese nationalism is strong and actively promoted by the leadership, but not to such an extent that most let it go to their heads. The ordinary people are left alone as long as they don't actively oppose the CCP.

[Frodo]

Realized I haven't made a prediction in my own thread:

In many ways, China is following the Taiwanese/South Korean model of political development.  The early stages were dominated by one-man/one-party dictatorships, later gradually liberalizing to the point that genuine democratic elections were made possible in forty years, but not before Taiwan and South Korea had become industrialized and developed countries in the 1960s and '70s.  It is not out of the question that by 2020, China should have become politically liberalized enough that democratic elections could be held.  The 'Great Recession' that is occurring world-wide could well hasten this process, particularly if India grows at a higher rate than China. 

[Sbane]

Realized I haven't made a prediction in my own thread:

In many ways, China is following the Taiwanese/South Korean model of political development.  The early stages were dominated by one-man/one-party dictatorships, later gradually liberalizing to the point that genuine democratic elections were made possible in forty years, but not before Taiwan and South Korea had become industrialized and developed countries in the 1960s and '70s.  It is not out of the question that by 2020, China should have become politically liberalized enough that democratic elections could be held.  The 'Great Recession' that is occurring world-wide could well hasten this process, particularly if India grows at a higher rate than China. 

Why would India growing faster than China lead to democracy? If that is what you were trying to say.

[Psychic Octopus]

China will be the same as it is today, I think, no freedom of the press.

[Beet]

Apart from world war or environmental cataclysm, China will be a multi-party parliamentary democracy.

[Verily]

Realized I haven't made a prediction in my own thread:

In many ways, China is following the Taiwanese/South Korean model of political development.  The early stages were dominated by one-man/one-party dictatorships, later gradually liberalizing to the point that genuine democratic elections were made possible in forty years, but not before Taiwan and South Korea had become industrialized and developed countries in the 1960s and '70s.  It is not out of the question that by 2020, China should have become politically liberalized enough that democratic elections could be held.  The 'Great Recession' that is occurring world-wide could well hasten this process, particularly if India grows at a higher rate than China. 

Why would India growing faster than China lead to democracy? If that is what you were trying to say.

Economic pressure on the government. The greater the pressure on the Chinese government, the greater the incentive to relieve that pressure through the introduction of democracy. (I suspect China would be a one-party dominant political state similar to 1950s-1990s Japan for at least a generation in any case, so they would retain power.)

[Frodo]

Realized I haven't made a prediction in my own thread:

In many ways, China is following the Taiwanese/South Korean model of political development.  The early stages were dominated by one-man/one-party dictatorships, later gradually liberalizing to the point that genuine democratic elections were made possible in forty years, but not before Taiwan and South Korea had become industrialized and developed countries in the 1960s and '70s.  It is not out of the question that by 2020, China should have become politically liberalized enough that democratic elections could be held.  The 'Great Recession' that is occurring world-wide could well hasten this process, particularly if India grows at a higher rate than China. 

Why would India growing faster than China lead to democracy? If that is what you were trying to say.

Think of it this way: India and China are both rising powers -as well as rivals (at least since the Communist conquest of mainland China in 1949).  As long as China sees itself growing at a faster pace (particularly at a time like this) than any other country in Asia, it will see its model of 'authoritarian capitalism' vindicated -and would further delay any chances of political reform.  If, however, India (as the world's largest democracy) not only catches up to but even exceeds China's rate of economic growth, that could well help to spur calls within China (and the CCP) for greater political liberalization.  I am not saying that India alone will turn China in a more democratic direction, but combined with forces within China and the Chinese Communist Party, I fail to see how it won't. 

Edit: I see Verily has already pretty much made my argument.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

China will not change on its own in the near future.

[jokerman]

Realized I haven't made a prediction in my own thread:

In many ways, China is following the Taiwanese/South Korean model of political development.  The early stages were dominated by one-man/one-party dictatorships, later gradually liberalizing to the point that genuine democratic elections were made possible in forty years, but not before Taiwan and South Korea had become industrialized and developed countries in the 1960s and '70s.  It is not out of the question that by 2020, China should have become politically liberalized enough that democratic elections could be held.  The 'Great Recession' that is occurring world-wide could well hasten this process, particularly if India grows at a higher rate than China. 

Why would India growing faster than China lead to democracy? If that is what you were trying to say.

Economic pressure on the government. The greater the pressure on the Chinese government, the greater the incentive to relieve that pressure through the introduction of democracy. (I suspect China would be a one-party dominant political state similar to 1950s-1990s Japan for at least a generation in any case, so they would retain power.)

I wouldn't count on it.  India's an economic wreck, on one hand lacking the government vigour to establish necessary infrastructure (instead wasting money through corruption and ineffective gasoline subsidies) and then in some areas of regulation and policy actually granting less economic freedom than in China.

[Sam Spade]

Hard to know that far in advance - the Chinese have never had a real problem with a centralized power structure, except for rebellions every so often when the leaders go too far.

In the near future, it seems plainly clear that China will become a much more repressive place, especially when they have to deal with countless unhappy, homeless and hungry citizens (this applies to a lot of countries, really).

[Sbane]

Realized I haven't made a prediction in my own thread:

In many ways, China is following the Taiwanese/South Korean model of political development.  The early stages were dominated by one-man/one-party dictatorships, later gradually liberalizing to the point that genuine democratic elections were made possible in forty years, but not before Taiwan and South Korea had become industrialized and developed countries in the 1960s and '70s.  It is not out of the question that by 2020, China should have become politically liberalized enough that democratic elections could be held.  The 'Great Recession' that is occurring world-wide could well hasten this process, particularly if India grows at a higher rate than China. 

Why would India growing faster than China lead to democracy? If that is what you were trying to say.

Economic pressure on the government. The greater the pressure on the Chinese government, the greater the incentive to relieve that pressure through the introduction of democracy. (I suspect China would be a one-party dominant political state similar to 1950s-1990s Japan for at least a generation in any case, so they would retain power.)

I wouldn't count on it.  India's an economic wreck, on one hand lacking the government vigour to establish necessary infrastructure (instead wasting money through corruption and ineffective gasoline subsidies) and then in some areas of regulation and policy actually granting less economic freedom than in China.

Biggest thing holding back India is their labor laws. Organizations with more than 100 employees can't lay off people. Thus nobody makes big investments in manufacturing. Touching it is political suicide so who knows what will happen. Infrastructure is getting much, much better but do note where they are starting from.

[Verily]

Realized I haven't made a prediction in my own thread:

In many ways, China is following the Taiwanese/South Korean model of political development.  The early stages were dominated by one-man/one-party dictatorships, later gradually liberalizing to the point that genuine democratic elections were made possible in forty years, but not before Taiwan and South Korea had become industrialized and developed countries in the 1960s and '70s.  It is not out of the question that by 2020, China should have become politically liberalized enough that democratic elections could be held.  The 'Great Recession' that is occurring world-wide could well hasten this process, particularly if India grows at a higher rate than China. 

Why would India growing faster than China lead to democracy? If that is what you were trying to say.

Economic pressure on the government. The greater the pressure on the Chinese government, the greater the incentive to relieve that pressure through the introduction of democracy. (I suspect China would be a one-party dominant political state similar to 1950s-1990s Japan for at least a generation in any case, so they would retain power.)

I wouldn't count on it.  India's an economic wreck, on one hand lacking the government vigour to establish necessary infrastructure (instead wasting money through corruption and ineffective gasoline subsidies) and then in some areas of regulation and policy actually granting less economic freedom than in China.

Well, yes. But Frodo's premise was that India would be gaining ground on China. My point wasn't that this would happen but that, if it did happen, China would have strong pressure for democratic reforms.

As it is, I agree with Frodo and others that China is likely to institute at least nominal democracy within the next few decades, perhaps as a part of a reunification agreement with Taiwan but more likely on its own (then later leading to reunification). The reason is not likely, at least on its own, to be India and the growth of the Indian economy, although I wouldn't rule out completely an Indian surge. The reason is likely to be internal discontent over economic conditions followed by rapid growth of the high-end economy as the world economy recovers. I disagree with Sam Spade on this point: bad economic times lead to more freedoms and more democracy, not less (although the extremely immediate impacts can't be denied).