2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1325803054344581124

I have to say that I've been very impressed with Georgia's election apparatus for this election, both at the state and county levels.

Me too.  But why is that?  I'd like to think it's because they are being responsible.  But I have to think a factor is that they know the state is changing and they can't get away with BS anymore.  They have a political future beyond Donald Trump and his personal interests.

[Non Swing Voter]

OMG CNN has John King and Mattingly on split screen with two magic walls. 

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/johnkruzel/status/1325855042222632960?s=20

This is getting pathetic. 

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/johnkruzel/status/1325855042222632960?s=20

Ridiculous. Regardless of what you think of the rules in place, everybody should be able to agree that you don't change the  rules after the fact. That would be disenfranchising all of those voters who voted by the rules set in place at the time of their vote.

John Roberts ‘if the people Pennsylvania don’t like not have their votes counted, they need to vote out the Ohio legislature’

who are in gerrymandered districts.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1325895522612285442

there is no bottom...

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1325895522612285442
there is no bottom...

Do they really think that going full retard is the best strategy for the runoff?

well they do need to speak directly to their base.

[Non Swing Voter]

I get why an ego maniac like trump will never accept the fact that he lost this election
but I have need no idea why so many in the GOP are still going along with him at this point beacause
the reality is by the end of all of this Biden will sworn in as the 46th president of the united states come January

There is simply no evidence of voter fraud that is large enough to reverse the results of this election and all the investigations from Bill Barr in the world is not going to change that fact

Being part of Trump's GOP is like being part of a violent gang.  You can't leave it.  You owe your existence to it.  And if you do try to leave they hunt you down.  They all live in fear of Trump's chubby orange fingers hovering over the "tweet" button on twitter.

[Non Swing Voter]

There is clearly a lot of ticket splitting going on everywhere.  Biden is going to win this election by like 7 million votes yet the House GOP picked up seats.  It makes me wonder if overhyping the blue wave actually hurt Democrats down ballot because moderates wanted a check on the Democratic Party.  Normally I would want this too but Democrats need complete power right now because the GOP has abused their right to have any.

[Non Swing Voter]

There is clearly a lot of ticket splitting going on everywhere.  Biden is going to win this election by like 7 million votes yet the House GOP picked up seats.  It makes me wonder if overhyping the blue wave actually hurt Democrats down ballot because moderates wanted a check on the Democratic Party.  Normally I would want this too but Democrats need complete power right now because the GOP has abused their right to have any.

There certainly is some siginificant ticket splitting in some races. But ticket splitting is not a necessary condition for the election results we saw.  

Remember that the current make-up of the House was the result of an D+9 election cycle.  This was certainly not a D+9 election cycle.  Biden only won by ~4 points, and so if the House Dems also only won by 4 points, you would expect them to lose quite a number of seats.  In fact, if you told most analysts that the Dems would win the national House vote by 4 points in 2018, most would think they were unlikely to ever win the majority in the first place due to gerrymandering.

Probably a bit of both I'd guess.  Trump got all his fans out which helped Republicans, but I think there was clearly also ticket splitting.  Look at the results in the Omaha district as a prime example. 

On the other hand, Trump improving in Miami did likely lift up the two GOP house challengers who won.

[Non Swing Voter]

Do you guys know the outstanding ballots to be counted in AZ? Anyone has a breakdown of the remaining votes? I know about the 18k from Pima. But we don't really know the breakdown of those provisional votes, can they lean Trump, regardless of the +18 Biden margin win there? But I wouldn't think they would be enough to help Trump take over the lead.

https://arizona.vote/ballot-progress.html

[Non Swing Voter]

1) Why is Arizona being so slow to count?

2) Why hasn't Arizona been called?

1) Arizona isn't being that slow. There are plenty of other states that still have far more ballots left to count than AZ. Arizona is just the slowest close state. There was a lot more early or mail-in or otherwise atypical voting, because the nation is in the middle of the worst pandemic in a century.

2) The AZ race is extremely close, and a good showing by Trump (unlikely but well within the realm of possibility) on the remaining ballots could flip the result. AP/FOX called it anyway..

Trump is down by 15,000.  There are only a little over 60,000 remaining.  About 1/3 of the remaining ballots are from a county that Trump only received 39% of the vote in.  There is literally zero chance Trump flips Arizona at this point.  It would be good for the country if Arizona finished its count to put another nail in the Trump coffin and make it harder for his voter fraud charade to continue.  Lindsey Graham is on record saying he trusts the Arizona results.

[Non Swing Voter]

What's going on with North Carolina.  Out of all the close states they've been the slowest.  Literally no progress in days it seems.  I doubt Biden wins it but there are a lot of deeply blue counties that have votes outstanding.

[Non Swing Voter]

What's going on with North Carolina.  Out of all the close states they've been the slowest.  Literally no progress in days it seems.  I doubt Biden wins it but there are a lot of deeply blue counties that have votes outstanding.

If I remember correctly, they’re allowing ballots to be received up until the 12th and will count after then.

Yeah I think ur right, I do recall that too actually.

[Non Swing Voter]

Does anyone know how many votes are left in Pennsylvania? 

[Non Swing Voter]

Will Biden's margin of victory be closer to 10 million or 5 million votes?

my guess right now is between 7.5-8 million.  Those outstanding ballots are going to be heavily Democratic.

[Non Swing Voter]

Dumb figure.  Tens of millions of Trump voters live in the Blue counties (and many of them higher-earning than their Democratic neighbors.)

Was waiting for this argument to happen and it's complete BS.  The Trump voters in those blue counties tend to be the same kinds of unproductive members of society as the ones in red counties. 

[Non Swing Voter]

-

Dumb figure.  Tens of millions of Trump voters live in the Blue counties (and many of them higher-earning than their Democratic neighbors.)

Was waiting for this argument to happen and it's complete BS.  The Trump voters in those blue counties tend to be the same kinds of unproductive members of society as the ones in red counties.  

No.  GDP is just a proxy for urbanity.  Trust me, the >1M GOP voters in Los Angeles and Cook County are much, much more productive members of society than the >1M Biden voters living in the Black Belt or on Native American reservations  

You cannot infer how much someone *contributes to society just by their vote

The exit polls are already showing Biden won the 100K+ vote. 

Just looking at the counties Trump is winning by 80 point margins, they are all dirt poor.  The GOP is just a party of grifters who have a made a political movement of grifting and then claiming the other side is socialist.  If gainfully employed people still voted Republican Trump wouldn't have been so badly swamped in fundraising.

[Non Swing Voter]

why are there still no Georgia projections?  there's like no vote left.

[Non Swing Voter]

now Pima and Maricopa are still out, they should call Arizona already

FoxNews guy vindicated

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/srl/status/1326322097262632962

After all that debate and court cases, there were only 10k ballots in that late arriving narrow window in PA that the Supreme Court had separated but still counted for now. To me, it'd be outrageous if the tossed them since those people clearly made a good faith effort to vote, only to be screwed by a dysfunctional postal service. And I would say that if these were Trump votes.

It's fairly outrageous that the GOP gleefully trying to disenfranchise 10,000 people is lost in the overall Pennsylvania story because of all the other atrocities they are committing.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/srl/status/1326322097262632962

After all that debate and court cases, there were only 10k ballots in that late arriving narrow window in PA that the Supreme Court had separated but still counted for now. To me, it'd be outrageous if the tossed them since those people clearly made a good faith effort to vote, only to be screwed by a dysfunctional postal service. And I would say that if these were Trump votes.

It's fairly outrageous that the GOP gleefully trying to disenfranchise 10,000 people is lost in the overall Pennsylvania story because of all the other atrocities they are committing.

Ehhh... I'm not as sympathetic in that particular case.  It was trying to change the rules away from the written law at the last minute on a 1 vote partisan majority, and I was hoping it would be overturned on Purcell grounds.

That having been said if the way it got overturned was by a hyperliteral interpretation of "legislature thereof," that would have tragic implications for voting rights in many other states and cases. 

The legislature refused to change the law despite there being a pandemic and knowing the mail was moving slowly.  Regardless of the Purcell principle or whether the PA Courts over-reached, the bottom line is that the GOP tried as hard as it could to make sure people wouldn't get their votes in.  Not only that, they are arguing in court that it's not right that people were informed that their ballots were incorrect and given a chance to cure them.  These people don't belong in civilized society.

[Non Swing Voter]

i'm annoyed at this result as a republican, but it's fired me up as hell to vote these liberals out in 2022. leggo

I disagree with almost everything you stand for, but that's a perfectly fine response - "We lost. We'll get them next time."

How do you feel that the sitting President is attempting to invalidate election results? Does it bother you that the country looks like it is on its way to becoming a failed state? How do you feel that the President hinted at this behavior over the course of his term and was not taken seriously?

nah i'm fine with this because i had to deal with the liberals complaining and bitching about trump for 4yrs so anything to mess with the biden administration with incoming susan rice getting a job again it's so sad LOL i hope hillary gets something too the old hag needs something too

Okay, let me make sure I understand this.

If the election results are legitimate, you would still overturn them to "own the libs?"

duh

You just lost your last shred of credibility.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1326665741433647104

The estimated ballots left website just updated with the numbers from Pima and Yavapai.  I'll post an update in a couple minutes.

87% turnout in these rural counties and Trump still couldn’t win.  The GOP is in trouble.

[Non Swing Voter]

Is it normal for Georgia to pay for a full hand recount of a statewide election?  Or are they giving Trump special favors because of his *feelings*

[Non Swing Voter]

Is it normal for Georgia to pay for a full hand recount of a statewide election?  Or are they giving Trump special favors because of his *feelings*

Raffensperger is using existing Georgia law to accommodate the recount (which, let's face it, was coming anyway).  There is a provision requiring a "risk-limiting audit" (RLA) of one race, to be chosen by the SoS, in which they hand-examine a statistically significant number of ballots to have confidence that the outcome was accurate.  The number of ballots to be examined depends on the closeness of the margin.

So Raffensperger chose the Presidential race for the RLA in this election.  And the margin is so close that it requires examining 100% of the ballots to meet the statistical requirements.  This way he gets it done by using existing requirements of the law.  Given the pressures he's facing, this was actually a clever solution.

Thanks, that makes sense.  I’m sure Trump will still complain despite all of these accommodations.  Hopefully this recount is on the up and up.