2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[pantsaregood]

https://twitter.com/Data_Orbital/status/1325981927011098624

Ouch.

[BudgieForce]

I'll crunch the numbers once the website updates, but that's not nearly as good enough for Trump as he needs.  I was expecting something much worse from his earlier tweet.

That earlier tweet could indicate that bad batch for Biden is still out there. As you know though, every mixed batch like this makes Trump's climb harder and harder.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1325930313172869122

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1325930313172869122

Who thinks Trump and Tom Dewey are remotely in the same league?

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1325983783418425345

[GeorgiaModerate]

The website has updated with the Maricopa dump. Arizona now has the following estimated ballots left per https://arizona.vote/ballot-progress.html:

Ballots needing signature verification by 5pm MST Tuesday: 4283
Provisional ballots: 36827
Ballots ready for tabulation: 20467

Total: 61577

Updating with these numbers and using the same (very) Trump-friendly assumptions as before:

50% of the ballots needing signature cures will be accepted.
80% of the provisionals will be accepted.
Trump will do 10% better (and Biden 10% worse) than the current margins in each county.  Trump has generally not been doing this well in recent dumps.

With these assumptions, an estimated 52070 ballots will be accepted, and Trump will net 8503 from them.  He currently trails by 14746, so would finish behind by 6243. 

Of the estimated remaining 61.5K ballots, 29.5K are in Maricopa and 18.7K are in Pima.  I'm guessing the final margin will be around 20K for Biden, unless there actually is a very GOP-friendly batch left in Maricopa.

[Ferguson97]

1) Why is Arizona being so slow to count?

2) Why hasn't Arizona been called?

[DrScholl]

I'll crunch the numbers once the website updates, but that's not nearly as good enough for Trump as he needs.  I was expecting something much worse from his earlier tweet.

That earlier tweet could indicate that bad batch for Biden is still out there. As you know though, every mixed batch like this makes Trump's climb harder and harder.

Looking at how the county level races broke that was a more Republican heavy batch, but Trump under performed the down ballot candidates by double digits.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1325985409046867968

[Alben Barkley]

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1325930313172869122

Thomas Dewey>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Trump, and this is coming from one of the world's biggest Truman fans.

[roxas11]

The way Trump is behaving after losing this election has convinced me that we need major reforms to our election system

It's a flawed system that largely relies on the premise that the 2 people who are running for president will automatically do the right thing in the end and concede after they lose the election

Trump has proven just how outdated and silly this system is
I honestly believe that we need to find a way to prevent something like this from ever happing again because there can easily be a situation where A future president takes it much further than trump and turns our democracy into a dictatorship

[BudgieForce]

So if its true that that was a republican heavy batch, there's gotta be alot of ticket splitting going on in Maricopa.

[Holmes]

1) Why is Arizona being so slow to count?

2) Why hasn't Arizona been called?

It has been called by the AP and Fox News (which I believe use the same exit polling data, different from the other networks).

[gf20202]

Deleted an earlier post. While that was a somewhat republican batch, there remains a batch from AZ-5 which will probably the heaviest republican batch left in the state. Not nearly enough but there will be one drop that will help Trump a decent amount.

[Non Swing Voter]

There is clearly a lot of ticket splitting going on everywhere.  Biden is going to win this election by like 7 million votes yet the House GOP picked up seats.  It makes me wonder if overhyping the blue wave actually hurt Democrats down ballot because moderates wanted a check on the Democratic Party.  Normally I would want this too but Democrats need complete power right now because the GOP has abused their right to have any.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

There is clearly a lot of ticket splitting going on everywhere.  Biden is going to win this election by like 7 million votes yet the House GOP picked up seats.  It makes me wonder if overhyping the blue wave actually hurt Democrats down ballot because moderates wanted a check on the Democratic Party.  Normally I would want this too but Democrats need complete power right now because the GOP has abused their right to have any.

There certainly is some siginificant ticket splitting in some races. But ticket splitting is not a necessary condition for the election results we saw.  

Remember that the current make-up of the House was the result of an D+9 election cycle.  This was certainly not a D+9 election cycle.  Biden only won by ~4 points, and so if the House Dems also only won by 4 points, you would expect them to lose quite a number of seats.  In fact, if you told most analysts that the Dems would win the national House vote by 4 points in 2018, most would think they were unlikely to ever win the majority in the first place due to gerrymandering.

[Non Swing Voter]

There is clearly a lot of ticket splitting going on everywhere.  Biden is going to win this election by like 7 million votes yet the House GOP picked up seats.  It makes me wonder if overhyping the blue wave actually hurt Democrats down ballot because moderates wanted a check on the Democratic Party.  Normally I would want this too but Democrats need complete power right now because the GOP has abused their right to have any.

There certainly is some siginificant ticket splitting in some races. But ticket splitting is not a necessary condition for the election results we saw.  

Remember that the current make-up of the House was the result of an D+9 election cycle.  This was certainly not a D+9 election cycle.  Biden only won by ~4 points, and so if the House Dems also only won by 4 points, you would expect them to lose quite a number of seats.  In fact, if you told most analysts that the Dems would win the national House vote by 4 points in 2018, most would think they were unlikely to ever win the majority in the first place due to gerrymandering.

Probably a bit of both I'd guess.  Trump got all his fans out which helped Republicans, but I think there was clearly also ticket splitting.  Look at the results in the Omaha district as a prime example. 

On the other hand, Trump improving in Miami did likely lift up the two GOP house challengers who won.

[ucscgaldamez1]

Do you guys know the outstanding ballots to be counted in AZ? Anyone has a breakdown of the remaining votes? I know about the 18k from Pima. But we don't really know the breakdown of those provisional votes, can they lean Trump, regardless of the +18 Biden margin win there? But I wouldn't think they would be enough to help Trump take over the lead.

[Non Swing Voter]

Do you guys know the outstanding ballots to be counted in AZ? Anyone has a breakdown of the remaining votes? I know about the 18k from Pima. But we don't really know the breakdown of those provisional votes, can they lean Trump, regardless of the +18 Biden margin win there? But I wouldn't think they would be enough to help Trump take over the lead.

https://arizona.vote/ballot-progress.html

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

1) Why is Arizona being so slow to count?

2) Why hasn't Arizona been called?

1) Arizona isn't being that slow. There are plenty of other states that still have far more ballots left to count than AZ. Arizona is just the slowest close state. There was a lot more early or mail-in or otherwise atypical voting, because the nation is in the middle of the worst pandemic in a century.

2) The AZ race is extremely close, and a good showing by Trump (unlikely but well within the realm of possibility) on the remaining ballots could flip the result. AP/FOX called it anyway..

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

The way Trump is behaving after losing this election has convinced me that we need major reforms to our election system

It's a flawed system that largely relies on the premise that the 2 people who are running for president will automatically do the right thing in the end and concede after they lose the election

Trump has proven just how outdated and silly this system is
I honestly believe that we need to find a way to prevent something like this from ever happing again because there can easily be a situation where A future president takes it much further than trump and turns our democracy into a dictatorship

The system is less than ideal, but it's not the problem. Republicans, or more specifically, people who participate in our society and government in bad faith are the problem.

If half the nation does not believe we should be a representative democracy then no systemic fix is going to solve the threat they pose to representative democracy. And if half the country wasn't cheering on the death of the Republic, then we wouldn't need to fix the system in the first place.

[Non Swing Voter]

1) Why is Arizona being so slow to count?

2) Why hasn't Arizona been called?

1) Arizona isn't being that slow. There are plenty of other states that still have far more ballots left to count than AZ. Arizona is just the slowest close state. There was a lot more early or mail-in or otherwise atypical voting, because the nation is in the middle of the worst pandemic in a century.

2) The AZ race is extremely close, and a good showing by Trump (unlikely but well within the realm of possibility) on the remaining ballots could flip the result. AP/FOX called it anyway..

Trump is down by 15,000.  There are only a little over 60,000 remaining.  About 1/3 of the remaining ballots are from a county that Trump only received 39% of the vote in.  There is literally zero chance Trump flips Arizona at this point.  It would be good for the country if Arizona finished its count to put another nail in the Trump coffin and make it harder for his voter fraud charade to continue.  Lindsey Graham is on record saying he trusts the Arizona results.

[Bootes Void]

I think the polling error was caused by higher turnout. Higher turnout means alot more of noncollege educated people voted skewing the electorate to be more noncollege educated as noncollege educated voted Trump.

The polls werent entirely terrible however they was working on a 2016 electorate but this year because of higher turnout there will be a higher composition of a noncollege educated electorate.Thats what I think caused the polling miss as well.

-Also seniors are notorious liars, Biden hardly improved with them or somethings up

[Non Swing Voter]

What's going on with North Carolina.  Out of all the close states they've been the slowest.  Literally no progress in days it seems.  I doubt Biden wins it but there are a lot of deeply blue counties that have votes outstanding.

[soundchaser]

What's going on with North Carolina.  Out of all the close states they've been the slowest.  Literally no progress in days it seems.  I doubt Biden wins it but there are a lot of deeply blue counties that have votes outstanding.

If I remember correctly, they’re allowing ballots to be received up until the 12th and will count after then.