2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[Non Swing Voter]

I think danumbersguy is the guy responsible for the map everyone used to post of Florida.  See below:

https://public.tableau.com/profile/dave.trotter#!/vizhome/2020FloridaElectionData/VoteComposition

he hasn't updated it in forever though.  Wish he'd spend more time updating the map and less time with bad hot takes.

He has updated, but since Sunday you have to donate $15 to his PayPal to view it.

His Youtube vids are free though.

Oh, hell no.  They were convenient to look at but I'd rather just go here for free up to date info in chart form:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17YKazYaUMZ33vmd4YHDKcVdlTkP5DmnHQQlAttwOzL0/edit#gid=1837208868

[Non Swing Voter]

The Ralston stuff seems odd to me, especially since he literally says "pending mail count" - so yeah, uh, it's not surprising that Dems lost ground in Washoe and Clark in *in person early voting* since the majority of Dems are... mailing in the votes... and you're doing an analysis .... *without* the mail count that will likely help Dems?

Like I said before too, it's not an apples to apples comparison either. If the mail is delayed, or one day is a bigger count than the rest, that will easily make things look better or worse. If today was a slow mail day and not as many ballots processed, then obviously it's going to look bad next to the live daily updates from early in person where votes are being processed *that day* compared to god knows whenever the mail decides to move for the mail in ballots.

Like let's say the mail is backed up and for 3 days in a row, they don't process a whole ton of ballots. Well of course Reps are going to look great for those 3 days since they are voting in person!

I trust Ralston, but this all seems like important context that he's willfully ignoring...

Also: is this a dumb question or is Ralston not even taking account that NPAs will likely go more for Biden this year than Clinton in 2016?

Ralston the surprise bedwetter of 2020?

[Non Swing Voter]

Florida Turnout Tracker

Democrats achieve the EV turnout % from 2016 with 5 days of early voting left.  Next goal, to bank tons more turnout before Sunday so they can blow past the Final 74.5% number on election day and at least match Republicans in the low 80s.




Dems have surpassed '16 EV Turnout now in 40 of 68 counties.   For comparison, at this time, Republicans have only done this in 5 counties.

Miami Dade hits 50% of all Dems registered but along with Orange county needs to keep the pressure on.  Large Hillsborough County (Tampa) has achieved '16 EV Turnout.   This might not get so much press but Dems are doing quite well in small/mid size counties.  I expect one outcome might be Trump winning these counties at much lower margins vs. '16

This analysis is really good.  Dems need to keep a singular focus on Orange and Miami Dade.

Everyone needs to remember that these were the two counties that mailed ballots out the latest.  It doesn't change the fact that we are where we are though and Dems need to get these people out.  These two places have a lot of young Democrats though so it's entirely plausible that you might see a lot of them vote on Election Day as young people procrastinate.  I'd still rather be Biden in Florida.

[Non Swing Voter]

PA now at 32.3% of 2016 turnout.

Dems 1,354,624 (68.5%)
Reps 426,431 (21.6%)
Other 197,431 (10%)
= 1,978,486

Dem return rate is 70%, Rep return rate is 54%. Dem lead is now +928K. It was +881K yesterday.

I think those numbers are still lagging the real numbers.  I can't find the article but the actual numbers were higher a week ago in some of the philly suburban counties and I still don't think they've been accounted for much less the new ones that have come in.

[Non Swing Voter]

PA now at 32.3% of 2016 turnout.

Dems 1,354,624 (68.5%)
Reps 426,431 (21.6%)
Other 197,431 (10%)

Dem return rate is 70%, Rep return rate is 54%. Dem lead is now +928K. It was +881K yesterday.

Good lord, PA Dems are on fire.

I'm not convinced this is a leading indicator of how PA is going to vote. Yes, it's good that the Dems are returning their absentee ballots. But PA did not have no-excuse absentee voting nor early voting in the past, so this is pure cannibalization of election day turnout. PA did not suddenly turn into a one party D state. I'm still thinking Biden wins PA by around 6 but I'd hope to see something like 90%+ of absentee ballots returned, we don't want regular D voters not have their vote counted because they sent their ballot in late or something.

Given how Biden is over performing Clinton among independents, substantially in some states, the metric is just getting out Democrats to vote.  There's no doubt Trump supporters are going to turn out but it's probably not going to be enough if Democrats are voting too, which they clearly are.

[Non Swing Voter]

It seems like at the current pace + a bit of an Election Day bump, Democrats will hit 80% turnout.  Do Florida experts think this is enough? 

[Non Swing Voter]

It seems like at the current pace + a bit of an Election Day bump, Democrats will hit 80% turnout.  Do Florida experts think this is enough? 

From what  have seen Florida dems had 75% total turnout versus 81% for the GOP in 2016. The guy I follow is hoping for 80% Florida dem turnout in total, or to stay within 3% of the GOP turnout figure.  They hope Dems can get to 65%-70% by the end of the early vote.

I'd be surprised at this point if Dems aren't above 65% by the end of early voting. 

[Non Swing Voter]

It seems like at the current pace + a bit of an Election Day bump, Democrats will hit 80% turnout.  Do Florida experts think this is enough?  

All I want for Xmas is
1). 80%+ Turnout statewide,
2).  Dems  at least match 2016 turnout level 74.3% in Miami Dade (that is 170K more votes from now)
and 3).  NPAs to exceed their 2016 levels overall

Hopefully souls to the polls cuts deep into that 170k.

[Non Swing Voter]

Dems at 54.7% turnout in Florida.

If they end today at 56%, Thursday at 59%, Friday at 62% they'll be well positioned to hit 65-70% by the end of early voting.

[Non Swing Voter]

Dem turnout = 55.1% in FL.  That looks pretty good.

[Non Swing Voter]

PA now at 32.3% of 2016 turnout.

Dems 1,354,624 (68.5%)
Reps 426,431 (21.6%)
Other 197,431 (10%)
= 1,978,486

Dem return rate is 70%, Rep return rate is 54%. Dem lead is now +928K. It was +881K yesterday.

I think those numbers are still lagging the real numbers.  I can't find the article but the actual numbers were higher a week ago in some of the philly suburban counties and I still don't think they've been accounted for much less the new ones that have come in.

Doesn't PA update only on Fridays or something?

I think that's Minnesota or is it PA too?  I feel like they do update every couple of days it's just far behind the actual numbers in some places.

[Non Swing Voter]

PA now at 32.3% of 2016 turnout.

Dems 1,354,624 (68.5%)
Reps 426,431 (21.6%)
Other 197,431 (10%)
= 1,978,486

Dem return rate is 70%, Rep return rate is 54%. Dem lead is now +928K. It was +881K yesterday.

I think those numbers are still lagging the real numbers.  I can't find the article but the actual numbers were higher a week ago in some of the philly suburban counties and I still don't think they've been accounted for much less the new ones that have come in.

Doesn't PA update only on Fridays or something?

I think that's Minnesota or is it PA too?  I feel like they do update every couple of days it's just far behind the actual numbers in some places.

PA updates every weekday. Minnesota is every Friday

Their numbers don't seem accurate though.  There have been articles about how their reporting is behind.  It would be nice if they got their act together considering it's probably the most important state this cycle.

[Non Swing Voter]

Every single post in here on the last 3 pages suggests this is going to be a Biden landslide.  Still we are all pooping our pants because of 2016 and the fact that there is a conceivable path for Trump.  But no-one should be surprised if Biden wins the popular vote by the biggest vote margin ever. 

[Non Swing Voter]

Every single post in here on the last 3 pages suggests this is going to be a Biden landslide.  Still we are all pooping our pants because of 2016 and the fact that there is a conceivable path for Trump.  But no-one should be surprised if Biden wins the popular vote by the biggest vote margin ever. 

I think I may have said this before, but the fact that so many Democrats are pooping their pants and petrified of another 2016 is exactly why the landslide is going to happen. That was just an unbelievable motivator.

Yeah, everything just keeps compounding and snowballing.  Overconfident Trump people.  Worried democrats.  Democrats early voting because they're paranoid about voter suppression. 

Hot take: this election is going to be a mandate of epic proportions and a massive realignment of modern American politics.  The GOP is going to have to rebrand in a major way in 10 days.

[Non Swing Voter]

Every single post in here on the last 3 pages suggests this is going to be a Biden landslide.  Still we are all pooping our pants because of 2016 and the fact that there is a conceivable path for Trump.  But no-one should be surprised if Biden wins the popular vote by the biggest vote margin ever. 

"Ever" is a bit of an exaggeration, but he may win by double-digits with the biggest margin in decades.

I mean vote total margin not percentage margin.

[Non Swing Voter]

Excited to report that Wife and I voted today right before the polls closed in GA! Local media is reporting lines are getting longer all over metro ATL as the early voting window closes, so turnout here is probably only going to accelerate over the next few days.

Who do you think has the upper hand in the Presidential race in Georgia?

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1321608439689211904

[Non Swing Voter]

I voted Ossoff and Loeffler (I expect a runoff and suspect she's more of a fiscal conservative vs. Collins being a social conservative so prefer her in a runoff. However if she continues to veer towards Trumpism in the runoff, I am very much willing to switch my vote to Warnock).

Frankly I was leaning Perdue until his Kamala comment so Ossoff was a bit of a last minute change. I hope I made the right call on this one.

Excited to report that Wife and I voted today right before the polls closed in GA! Local media is reporting lines are getting longer all over metro ATL as the early voting window closes, so turnout here is probably only going to accelerate over the next few days.

Awesome! How did you decide to vote on Senate, if you care to share?

Not gonna see many Ossoff/Loeffler voters.  I respect you for sticking to your beliefs/values!

The guy who does the Monmouth poll said he saw a good number of Perdue/Warnock voters. He implied it was Republicans who were sick of the Collins/Loeffler battles.

If Sore Loserman would get out of the race maybe Dems could take it outright.  Like father like son.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1321608439689211904

definitely bad for Dems, or at least that's the tone he'll have

I actually think Ralston reads this thread and gets off on seeing you guys sh**t your pants.

[Non Swing Voter]

Is the rest of Dane county fairly Democratic or are the Democrats substantially concentrated in the city of Madison?

[Non Swing Voter]

one thing I find really weird is how South Dakota shot up to over 30% of 2016 turnout after like 1 week of voting and like a month later its at 40% of 2016 turnout.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1321628279187660800

A good reminder that Republicans can't expect Election Day to be as Red as people here claim.  They are eating into their Election Day vote as well. 

[Non Swing Voter]

does anyone know how big Souls to the Polls is the last Sunday in Florida? 

Dems are at 56% turnout and are gaining about 3% every day.  So if they got to 59 on Thursday, 62 on Friday, 65 Saturday, we could be looking at close to 70% turnout on Sunday if that's a big day.

[Non Swing Voter]

Florida Turnout Tracker

Dems proceed beyond 2016 EV Turnout but Republicans catching up.   Just need to keep at same level as Reps in the end.  NPAs will hit their 2016 EV % today

Dems  56.4% (+2.8 )
Reps   53.9%  (+3.7)
NPAs   40.2%  (+3.0)





Democratic Behemoth Broward and Duval (JAX) on pace to achieve 2016 EV Turnout this morning.  Democrats have achieved already in 54/68 counties.   All the talk about Miami-Dade but they are quietly banking 3% each day.    Pinellas past  60% of all Dem voters!

Something's going on in Tampa too.

[Non Swing Voter]

A lot of the focus has shifted to Georgia but the North Carolina numbers are getting really insane.  Charlotte in particular is looking really good.