Israel 2022 election (November 1st)

[Hnv1]

Meretz got 6 seats on a recent poll, which is the first time they've gotten that high since about a year (?) ago.

the notorious post-primaries bump. ZR on the other hand were below the threshold in one poll yesterday.

Anyhow, until the lists are finalized (September 15) the polls are even less meaningful than usual

[Hnv1]

Can someone explain the rise of Otzma Yehudit. How did they go from a minor part of RZP and 1-2% of the vote when running separately to polling at 7 seats on their own?

There were always 5% of the electorate that liked their opinions but:
1. Ben Gvir is good with the (social) media, while former leaders were more awkward.
2. there used to be a bigger crowding out effect in the far right with other parties like Moledet, Herut, Liberman (oh how times have changed) and so on having more appeal. Now most Otzma voters are Sephardic, i.e., people who could vote Shas\Likud and aren't radical settlers so now Ben Gvir has a clean field to swipe them to him.

Wonder what you think about the differences between Ben Gvir and Kahane's appeals.

Kahane was a weirdo. Even among the far right back then he was considered bizarre. He set up shop between junkies and the poor in south Tel Aviv and in an era with no threshold that was enough to see him through. His thick accent and KKK approach was pretty outlandish. The settlers didn’t fancy him and were resolute in not collaborating. Hi performance in 1977/1981 was poor dove worked at poor Sephardi areas to get one seat, and even that seat he got because the SC did his campaign by disqualifying and then allowing him to run.

Ben Gvir is more dogwhistle than blunt like his master. Israel also changed a lot. The fringe of the Haredi society is much larger now (ironically this is because of their political success since 1977). Also nationalism is much more ripe in the Israel periphery. post second intifada Israel is a different place.
There’s also this segment of first time voters still buzzing with military attitudes (where they were janitors and drivers) that also fancy his Johnny big bad kind of talk

[Hnv1]

Apparently RZ and Otzma are running together after all - Ben Gvir published a statement with this message.

Likely list:
1. Smotrich
2. Ben Gvir
3. Ofir Sofer (RZ)
4. Orit Strook (RZ)
5. Yitzhak Weisserlof (Kahanist)
6. Simcha Rotman (RZ)
7. Kahanist
8. Michal Waldinger (RZ)
9. Kahanist
10. Kahanist
11. Offered to Noam (single issue homophobes)

If anything, this looks like a raw deal, considering that Otzma Yehudit has actually been doing better than the Religious Zionists in all recent polls where they've been polled separately, with the latter actually not even making it in in one poll.

Ben Gvir doesn’t have money, this way he puts his foot through the doors with substantial party financing in the future.
Bibi and Smotric are buying the rope with which he’ll strangle them in the future

[Hnv1]

I would also note that RZ and Otzma's value is always higher "pre money". RZ (basically Tkuma) always ran with other parties, and parasitic on their supporters base. In reality, there aren't that many Hardali in Israel and Smotric's personal popularity with hard right voters masks his party terrible appeal.

Otzma is a serial above the threshold before and under after the election when running alone (2006, 2013, 2019). The only times they got someone in was in a large union (NU in 2009 and recently in RZ), and even with broad unions they failed (2003, 2015).
If Ben Gvir doesn't capitalize on the zenith of his popularity to make his movement of plonkers into a stable party they might never will.

[Hnv1]

I saw a new party on the wiki polling page today--does anyone have an explainer on what "Youth on Fire" stands for and whoch bloc they'd be aligned with? They actually polled surprisingly wrll kn the one poll that included them.

It's... a party that should be ignored, but the media is dumb. Basically, some 20 years old named Hadar Muchtar started a tiktok\social media movement by making shocked faces in selfies and saying mostly stupid populist things about economics and the cost of living. The thing is, because of her age she can't even run to the Knesset. When confronted about this, she just says she wants to be a Minister and doesn't name her actual Knesset candidates. Funnily, she's also part of the same military service route I am- finishing your degree first and then serving in the army. She finished her degree and is supposed to be conscripted, but is probably trying to use this to skip the conscription. So basically she's an embarrassment.

Outside of vague populism about economics, she's a religious settler, so you can imagine her opinions on Palestinians, LGBT people etc.

I’m 80% certain Muchtar is being funded by Likud.
Fake parties and NGO is Likud campaign 101

[Hnv1]

Why does Israel have such ridiculously long election campaigns? Most countries have campaign periods of five or six weeks and if an early election is forced due to a non confidence vote, it’s usually held no more than two months later. Only Israel seems to think it takes like six months to hold an early election.

Good question. Historically, the long period was set as the new state didn't have the institutional infrastructure throughout to hold one. It became the norms as workers in Israeli public sector are some of the worst in the world. The central election committee simply works like we're a third world country.

I tend to work as precinct secretary and my lord the people working in the election committee are of the lowest quality.

[Hnv1]

The polls are suspiciously similar to each other, even across different firms. One would expect the seats per party to fluctuate more just from statistical noise alone.

Or after five consecutive elections people are pretty determined about what they want and don’t need another reflection. The real results will differ in seats only because of Arab turnout, the number of Jewish swing voters is minimal

[Hnv1]

Shaked and Hendel are no more. Shaked will try linking up with old JH and positioning herself between Likud and ZR.

hopefully, she's going home for good that cancerous hag

[Hnv1]

Can someone explain why some parties have longer lists than others? Is there a reason for every party not to just have full 70 candidate lists?

The full list would be 120. Some parties such as Likud, Labor and Meretz are traditional parties who usually submit full lists, usually beyond the candidates elected in the primary they put various party figure and in the last spots respected party elders (as a sign of respect). Others just don't see the need to submit full lists - not enough people who agree to run, or no need to bother with finding names.

This. Plus each person on the list needs a form and an affidavit to confirm his nomination, a logistic hassle for parties with no actual membership or branches

[Hnv1]

Balad is as relevant to 2022 politics as Herzel. They won’t get more than 25K votes.

[Hnv1]

Israel can yall please not do whatever the f*** it looks like yall are currently on pace to do? My sanity would appreciate it.

As we say, you count the money in the bank. I don’t think Bibi’s heading for a majority and if he does Herzog would make Lapid and Gantz join a grand coalition

[Hnv1]

Israel can yall please not do whatever the f*** it looks like yall are currently on pace to do? My sanity would appreciate it.

As we say, you count the money in the bank. I don’t think Bibi’s heading for a majority and if he does Herzog would make Lapid and Gantz join a grand coalition

Ironically, this is probably labor's only road back to prominence. Who would even be opposition leader if the government is Likud-Yesh Atid-Statist-Haredim? Smotrich? Lieberman? Michaeli (if she can form a bloc with Meretz)?

Whoever gets the most votes between the opposition MKs. If Labour+Meretz<RLZ then Smotric unless Michaeli could somehow sweet talk Hadash/Ta’al to support her (though I and others would make the vocal case Meretz should back Odeh and not Michaeli who’s driving me a bit crazy since last year)

[Hnv1]

Anyway Lapid stays as PM?

Until somebody else forms a coalition, yes. Bibi’s 2015 mandate theoretically continued until he signed a power-sharing agreement with Gantz in 2020 (so for significantly longer than the length of a single Knesset term). Lapid remains in power until somebody else demonstrates that they have the confidence of the Knesset; a purely negative vote of no confidence does not suffice.

One should note Bennett stays alternate PM and Lapid can’t fire Shaked and Co.

[Hnv1]

This is the most boring election Israel had since probably the sixties (2013 was fairly boring as well and 2001 was simply so predictable it was boring). It seems all polling shows an impasse with the number of undecided voters marginal. The wildcard is Arab turnout and no one has real control over it.

Low Arab turnout will put Bibi over 60, regular turnout at 59-60, high turnout to 57-8.

The good thing is that come October 2 we'll know straight away whether we're heading to a sixth cycle or a Bibi government.

[Hnv1]

Shaked is giving a statement this evening. I think she's going to drop out.

Shaked NOT dropping out

She needs the 1% funding. She’s not going to quit nor will it matter. I’ll post my prediction on Monday but I will just say I think Hadash are going to drop under and Bibi will have 62-3 seats

[Hnv1]

What is most likely outcome?

Bibi wins, which seems very possible.

Current coalition succeeds which seems unlikely unless expand to include Arab List.

Neither get a majority with Arab List holding balance of power making for interesting times.

Also doesn't current coalition include two right wing parties that dislike Bibi so wonder if Likud could win them back with a different leader?

Scenarios sorted by likelihood:
Bibi wins a majority
Hung parliament and sixth election cycle in March
Hung parliament but Bibi finds a defector to join a narrow government that will fall very soon
Lapid forms a minority government
Gantz forms a government
Lapid forms a majority government
any sort of mutiny within Likud

The likelihood of the last 4 borders null

[Hnv1]

The scenario in which Netanyahu gets his majority can be further divided depending on whether or not he could substitute the Religious Zionists with National Unity even if he wanted to.

I don't think that's going to happen, nor would either Gantz or Sa'ar be interested.

I think YA and the statists would merge parties a day into their time in opposition to have a larger faction than Likud and prepare a wide opposition to what's to come

[Hnv1]

All three final polls for Israel have the Netanyahu bloc at 60 seats, Labor at 5-6, Meretz at 4-5, and Hadash-Ta'al and Ra'am at 4 in all 3. Balad getting support amounting to 2-3 seats in the polls, while Jewish Home gets 1-2 (and unclear if their voters would go for Likud-RZ or for Gantz), so if Bibi wins next week, it might just be thanks to Balad

worth noting that polls can't calculate Bader-Ofer and surplus agreements, hence 60 could easily become 61 or even 62

[Hnv1]

So my prediction*:
Likud 32
YA 28
RZ-NSDAP 16
Statist Party - 12
Shas -8
UTJ - 6
Meretz - 5
YB - 5
Labour - 4
Ra'am - 4

Bibi Bloc - 62

Hadash+Balad+JH under the threshold

*This includes Bader-Ofer and surpluses that both favor the right dramatically. Likud will move from 30 to 32 in the final results. YA might also gain a seat or two. one of Meretz\Labour will gain from the surpluses.

[Hnv1]

When will we know results?

If it’s clear cut we’ll know by morning. If it’s a close one we’ll have to wait for the all the double envelopes to be counted by Friday morning

[Hnv1]

Absolute scenes. The precinct I work in is working nonstop. I don’t recall anything like this

[Hnv1]

You'd think people would be sick of voting by this point

Polarisation is a hell of a drug

[Hnv1]

Voting chilled a bit. But we’ll see by the 14:00 figures

[Hnv1]

Turnout dipped back to 71-2% levels here

[Hnv1]

Solid Bibi win.