Israel 2022 election (November 1st)
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Author Topic: Israel 2022 election (November 1st)  (Read 33703 times)
Angel of Death
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« Reply #225 on: September 15, 2022, 05:45:00 PM »

It might be that there is an accelerationist motive behind this decision. A Netanyahu-Ben-Gvir government could generate a bit of a backlash internationally.
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Coldstream
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« Reply #226 on: September 16, 2022, 04:40:46 AM »

It might be that there is an accelerationist motive behind this decision. A Netanyahu-Ben-Gvir government could generate a bit of a backlash internationally.

Even by the standards of accelerationism, letting people that could generously be described as ethnic cleansers like Otzma into the government would be a very bad idea.
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America Needs R'hllor
Parrotguy
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« Reply #227 on: September 18, 2022, 06:23:05 AM »

Michaeli in a government meeting about the Abraham Accords: "we should promote an agreement with the Palestinians"
Shaked: "the Palestinians don't interest the Emirates"
Hendel: "no one cares about the Palestinians"
Our politicians are driving our bus with a blindfold, ignoring the biggest problem and refusing to admit that they're going to crash us into the abyss
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warandwar
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« Reply #228 on: September 18, 2022, 09:38:43 AM »

Michaeli in a government meeting about the Abraham Accords: "we should promote an agreement with the Palestinians"
Shaked: "the Palestinians don't interest the Emirates"
Hendel: "no one cares about the Palestinians"
Our politicians are driving our bus with a blindfold, ignoring the biggest problem and refusing to admit that they're going to crash us into the abyss
You're not wrong, but in all fairness, I don't think Shaked is, either.
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
darthpi
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« Reply #229 on: September 19, 2022, 02:45:59 PM »

Israel can yall please not do whatever the f*** it looks like yall are currently on pace to do? My sanity would appreciate it.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #230 on: September 19, 2022, 06:46:38 PM »

Israel can yall please not do whatever the f*** it looks like yall are currently on pace to do? My sanity would appreciate it.

My other ancestral homeland (Italy) is certain to f*** up in a few days, so I cannot agree more with you with this sentiment.
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
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« Reply #231 on: September 19, 2022, 06:50:36 PM »

Israel can yall please not do whatever the f*** it looks like yall are currently on pace to do? My sanity would appreciate it.

My other ancestral homeland (Italy) is certain to f*** up in a few days, so I cannot agree more with you with this sentiment.

Italy really is just picking progressively more and more outlandish governments, I do have to wonder at what point reality is going to catch up with people there.
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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #232 on: September 19, 2022, 06:52:52 PM »

Israel can yall please not do whatever the f*** it looks like yall are currently on pace to do? My sanity would appreciate it.

Tell us about it my man.

But honestly I just don't think he'll suddenly get 61. We'll see.
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Hnv1
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« Reply #233 on: September 20, 2022, 03:30:12 AM »

Israel can yall please not do whatever the f*** it looks like yall are currently on pace to do? My sanity would appreciate it.
As we say, you count the money in the bank. I don’t think Bibi’s heading for a majority and if he does Herzog would make Lapid and Gantz join a grand coalition
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America Needs R'hllor
Parrotguy
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« Reply #234 on: September 20, 2022, 04:46:12 AM »

Israel can yall please not do whatever the f*** it looks like yall are currently on pace to do? My sanity would appreciate it.
As we say, you count the money in the bank. I don’t think Bibi’s heading for a majority and if he does Herzog would make Lapid and Gantz join a grand coalition

Ironically, this is probably labor's only road back to prominence. Who would even be opposition leader if the government is Likud-Yesh Atid-Statist-Haredim? Smotrich? Lieberman? Michaeli (if she can form a bloc with Meretz)?
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Hnv1
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« Reply #235 on: September 20, 2022, 12:09:49 PM »

Israel can yall please not do whatever the f*** it looks like yall are currently on pace to do? My sanity would appreciate it.
As we say, you count the money in the bank. I don’t think Bibi’s heading for a majority and if he does Herzog would make Lapid and Gantz join a grand coalition

Ironically, this is probably labor's only road back to prominence. Who would even be opposition leader if the government is Likud-Yesh Atid-Statist-Haredim? Smotrich? Lieberman? Michaeli (if she can form a bloc with Meretz)?
Whoever gets the most votes between the opposition MKs. If Labour+Meretz<RLZ then Smotric unless Michaeli could somehow sweet talk Hadash/Ta’al to support her (though I and others would make the vocal case Meretz should back Odeh and not Michaeli who’s driving me a bit crazy since last year)
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Pres Mike
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« Reply #236 on: September 23, 2022, 05:25:39 PM »

Anyway Lapid stays as PM?
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Vosem
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« Reply #237 on: September 23, 2022, 05:35:38 PM »


Until somebody else forms a coalition, yes. Bibi’s 2015 mandate theoretically continued until he signed a power-sharing agreement with Gantz in 2020 (so for significantly longer than the length of a single Knesset term). Lapid remains in power until somebody else demonstrates that they have the confidence of the Knesset; a purely negative vote of no confidence does not suffice.
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Hnv1
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« Reply #238 on: September 24, 2022, 12:39:46 PM »


Until somebody else forms a coalition, yes. Bibi’s 2015 mandate theoretically continued until he signed a power-sharing agreement with Gantz in 2020 (so for significantly longer than the length of a single Knesset term). Lapid remains in power until somebody else demonstrates that they have the confidence of the Knesset; a purely negative vote of no confidence does not suffice.
One should note Bennett stays alternate PM and Lapid can’t fire Shaked and Co.
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Hnv1
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« Reply #239 on: October 18, 2022, 07:34:37 AM »

This is the most boring election Israel had since probably the sixties (2013 was fairly boring as well and 2001 was simply so predictable it was boring). It seems all polling shows an impasse with the number of undecided voters marginal. The wildcard is Arab turnout and no one has real control over it.

Low Arab turnout will put Bibi over 60, regular turnout at 59-60, high turnout to 57-8.

The good thing is that come October 2 we'll know straight away whether we're heading to a sixth cycle or a Bibi government.
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Hollywood
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« Reply #240 on: October 23, 2022, 04:43:09 PM »

I don't what ya'll expected?  You guys caused the public turn against you in Europe and Israel.  Democrats might barely hold on to the Senate in the US, because Biden is pouring Strategic Petroleum Reserves into the markets until the elections have concluded.  "Biden’s latest 15-million-barrel move is supposed to counter the OPEC+ cut of 2 million barrels a day after Saudi Arabia ignored his pleas to hold off until after the November election. (The Saudis aren’t doing Biden any favors after he vowed to make them a “pariah” state and renewed the Obama-era bid for a strategic partnershp with their arch-rival, Iran.)". https://nypost.com/2022/10/22/bidens-spr-follies-will-hurt-americans-and-damage-our-national-security/

Biden helped out the left-wing parties by giving them a small deal that they can tout before the election.  According to Israeli News, no one cares about.  The left-wing is somehow surprised that the election is trending further to Bibi after Biden's visit.  They do not trust Biden and they don't want to enter a war with Russia, because Russia allows them to operate over Syrian Airspace in order to destroy Iranian weapons.  The Israel Democracy Institute found that most Israelis (54%) do not trust Biden to take Israel’s interests into account while 37% have confidence.   Voters needed Biden to deliver on a deal with Saudi Arabia.  They also don't forget the fact that his Administration gave away Israeli Intelligence.

The Radical Left in Israel look like fools right now, because Trump had Iran cornered.  They could have pulled off this psy-op attack on Iran under a Trump Administration, and been given leeway to level their weapons and nuclear facilities that they have already located, but this only worked as long Trump's Historic Peace Deal with Saudi Arabia allowed Israeli Planes to fly over their airspace.  Israel, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, and the US were going to launch joint attacks.  They were going to place Israeli Defense Systems in Saudi Arabia, and Biden froze fighter jet sales to Saudi Arabia and Qatar. Now those Iranian Weapons are helping Russia kill Ukrainian Soldiers, as well as NATO teams operating in the country.  Saudi Arabia is firmly in Russian (Iranian) hands, China is supplying materials to the Iranians, and Israel has to sit on their hands at a time when Iran is most vulnerable. 

Democrat Israelis/Jews are the biggest threat Israel faces, because they do not have a good grasp on the geopolitical situation. Their intransigence will only radicalize the Jewish Population towards real fascism, because they will to protect themselves from similar psy-op campaigns that the US uses in Israel to affect their elections.  It started when Barack interfered with the Israeli Political Process due to opposition to his stupid Iran Deal, so Bibi went to embarrass by delivering a speech to Congress. 
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warandwar
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« Reply #241 on: October 23, 2022, 09:40:11 PM »


The Radical Left in Israel look like fools right now
yeah everyone's laughing at those four people
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America Needs R'hllor
Parrotguy
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« Reply #242 on: October 25, 2022, 09:08:12 AM »

Shaked is giving a statement this evening. I think she's going to drop out.
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Parrotguy
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« Reply #243 on: October 25, 2022, 12:39:00 PM »

Shaked is giving a statement this evening. I think she's going to drop out.

Shaked NOT dropping out
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Hnv1
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« Reply #244 on: October 25, 2022, 02:01:24 PM »

Shaked is giving a statement this evening. I think she's going to drop out.

Shaked NOT dropping out
She needs the 1% funding. She’s not going to quit nor will it matter. I’ll post my prediction on Monday but I will just say I think Hadash are going to drop under and Bibi will have 62-3 seats
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mileslunn
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« Reply #245 on: October 25, 2022, 05:32:38 PM »

What is most likely outcome?

Bibi wins, which seems very possible.

Current coalition succeeds which seems unlikely unless expand to include Arab List.

Neither get a majority with Arab List holding balance of power making for interesting times.

Also doesn't current coalition include two right wing parties that dislike Bibi so wonder if Likud could win them back with a different leader?
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Hnv1
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« Reply #246 on: October 26, 2022, 04:41:58 AM »
« Edited: October 26, 2022, 05:14:32 AM by Hnv1 »

What is most likely outcome?

Bibi wins, which seems very possible.

Current coalition succeeds which seems unlikely unless expand to include Arab List.

Neither get a majority with Arab List holding balance of power making for interesting times.

Also doesn't current coalition include two right wing parties that dislike Bibi so wonder if Likud could win them back with a different leader?
Scenarios sorted by likelihood:
Bibi wins a majority
Hung parliament and sixth election cycle in March
Hung parliament but Bibi finds a defector to join a narrow government that will fall very soon
Lapid forms a minority government
Gantz forms a government
Lapid forms a majority government
any sort of mutiny within Likud

The likelihood of the last 4 borders null
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Angel of Death
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« Reply #247 on: October 26, 2022, 09:16:56 AM »

The scenario in which Netanyahu gets his majority can be further divided depending on whether or not he could substitute the Religious Zionists with National Unity even if he wanted to.
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locked_out
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« Reply #248 on: October 26, 2022, 09:25:51 AM »

If the parties of the current coalition are at 57 seats and Hadash-Ta'al gets 4, what is the chance that they are added to the coalition? Would a 61 seat majority dependent on 2 Arab parties be a risk worth taking?
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Angel of Death
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« Reply #249 on: October 26, 2022, 09:40:23 AM »

If the parties of the current coalition are at 57 seats and Hadash-Ta'al gets 4, what is the chance that they are added to the coalition? Would a 61 seat majority dependent on 2 Arab parties be a risk worth taking?

A formal coalition is out of the question and even a confidence-and-supply-like arrangement would be extremely unlikely, as Hadash-Ta'al would have to explicitly vote in favor of everything rather than be allowed to tactically abstain on certain votes.
The deteriorating situation in the West Bank isn't helping things either.
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