Israel 2022 election (November 1st)

[locked_out]

I saw a new party on the wiki polling page today--does anyone have an explainer on what "Youth on Fire" stands for and whoch bloc they'd be aligned with? They actually polled surprisingly wrll kn the one poll that included them.

[America Needs R'hllor]

I saw a new party on the wiki polling page today--does anyone have an explainer on what "Youth on Fire" stands for and whoch bloc they'd be aligned with? They actually polled surprisingly wrll kn the one poll that included them.

It's... a party that should be ignored, but the media is dumb. Basically, some 20 years old named Hadar Muchtar started a tiktok\social media movement by making shocked faces in selfies and saying mostly stupid populist things about economics and the cost of living. The thing is, because of her age she can't even run to the Knesset. When confronted about this, she just says she wants to be a Minister and doesn't name her actual Knesset candidates. Funnily, she's also part of the same military service route I am- finishing your degree first and then serving in the army. She finished her degree and is supposed to be conscripted, but is probably trying to use this to skip the conscription. So basically she's an embarrassment.

Outside of vague populism about economics, she's a religious settler, so you can imagine her opinions on Palestinians, LGBT people etc.

[Angel of Death]

According to this, only a plurality of 48% of Israelis (and that must presumably include Arab citizens) oppose Ben Gvir being part of the government.

[Hnv1]

I saw a new party on the wiki polling page today--does anyone have an explainer on what "Youth on Fire" stands for and whoch bloc they'd be aligned with? They actually polled surprisingly wrll kn the one poll that included them.

It's... a party that should be ignored, but the media is dumb. Basically, some 20 years old named Hadar Muchtar started a tiktok\social media movement by making shocked faces in selfies and saying mostly stupid populist things about economics and the cost of living. The thing is, because of her age she can't even run to the Knesset. When confronted about this, she just says she wants to be a Minister and doesn't name her actual Knesset candidates. Funnily, she's also part of the same military service route I am- finishing your degree first and then serving in the army. She finished her degree and is supposed to be conscripted, but is probably trying to use this to skip the conscription. So basically she's an embarrassment.

Outside of vague populism about economics, she's a religious settler, so you can imagine her opinions on Palestinians, LGBT people etc.

I’m 80% certain Muchtar is being funded by Likud.
Fake parties and NGO is Likud campaign 101

[DL]

Why does Israel have such ridiculously long election campaigns? Most countries have campaign periods of five or six weeks and if an early election is forced due to a non confidence vote, it’s usually held no more than two months later. Only Israel seems to think it takes like six months to hold an early election.

[Hnv1]

Why does Israel have such ridiculously long election campaigns? Most countries have campaign periods of five or six weeks and if an early election is forced due to a non confidence vote, it’s usually held no more than two months later. Only Israel seems to think it takes like six months to hold an early election.

Good question. Historically, the long period was set as the new state didn't have the institutional infrastructure throughout to hold one. It became the norms as workers in Israeli public sector are some of the worst in the world. The central election committee simply works like we're a third world country.

I tend to work as precinct secretary and my lord the people working in the election committee are of the lowest quality.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Why does Israel have such ridiculously long election campaigns? Most countries have campaign periods of five or six weeks and if an early election is forced due to a non confidence vote, it’s usually held no more than two months later. Only Israel seems to think it takes like six months to hold an early election.

Considering America has been in a permanent election campaign from basically 2015 to the present with no break, a six month campaign sounds positively ideal.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Why does Israel have such ridiculously long election campaigns? Most countries have campaign periods of five or six weeks and if an early election is forced due to a non confidence vote, it’s usually held no more than two months later. Only Israel seems to think it takes like six months to hold an early election.

Considering America has been in a permanent election campaign from basically 2015 to the present with no break, a six month campaign sounds positively ideal.

Well, it would be if 6 months wasn't also the average length of time from one election to the next (I'm exaggerating but just barely).

[Angel of Death]

The polls are suspiciously similar to each other, even across different firms. One would expect the seats per party to fluctuate more just from statistical noise alone.

[Hnv1]

The polls are suspiciously similar to each other, even across different firms. One would expect the seats per party to fluctuate more just from statistical noise alone.

Or after five consecutive elections people are pretty determined about what they want and don’t need another reflection. The real results will differ in seats only because of Arab turnout, the number of Jewish swing voters is minimal

[Angel of Death]

The polls are suspiciously similar to each other, even across different firms. One would expect the seats per party to fluctuate more just from statistical noise alone.

Or after five consecutive elections people are pretty determined about what they want and don’t need another reflection. The real results will differ in seats only because of Arab turnout, the number of Jewish swing voters is minimal

Even from a theoretical completely fixed electorate, samples should still show a modest amount of fluctuation. Herding from the pollsters should definitely not be ruled out here.

[Hnv1]

Shaked and Hendel are no more. Shaked will try linking up with old JH and positioning herself between Likud and ZR.

hopefully, she's going home for good that cancerous hag

[Coldstream]

Shaked and Hendel are no more. Shaked will try linking up with old JH and positioning herself between Likud and ZR.

hopefully, she's going home for good that cancerous hag

Surely there’s no chance either of them get in to parliament?

[Walmart_shopper]

Shaked and Hendel are no more. Shaked will try linking up with old JH and positioning herself between Likud and ZR.

hopefully, she's going home for good that cancerous hag

Surely there’s no chance either of them get in to parliament?

Correct. I think she's flamed out.

[America Needs R'hllor]

In other news Lapid offered Michaeli a pretty generous offer, including Ministries as if she has 10 MKs if he forms the government (unlikely) and reserved spots on his list, but she refused.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Yesh Atid list:
1. Lapid
2. Orna Barbivai
3. Meir Cohen
4. Karin Elharar
5. Merav Cohen
6. Yoel Razvozov
7. Elazar Stern
8. (Knesset Speaker) Mickey Levy
9. Merav Ben Ari
10. Ram Ben Barak
11. Yoav Segalovich
12. Boaz Toporovsky
13. Michal Shir
14. Idan Roll
15. Yorai Lahav Hartzeno
16. Vladimir Beliak
17. Ron Katz
18. Mati Harkevy
19. Tatiana Mazersky
20. Yasmin Sax Friedman

A few points:
- very very similar to the last list.
- all until place 18 are incumbent MKs. Michal Shir in place 13 is a former Sa'ar MK.
- Lapid is trying to emphasize women MKs and get some feminist support. But the result- #3 accused of sexual assault, #7 accused oh physically destroying sexual harassment complaints in the army, 4 women in top 10 but 8 in the top 20 (3 of whom are bundled up in places 18-20).
- MKs who had controversies or failures not punished - including Idan Roll who broke covid rules, Ram Ben Barak who had a controversial statement, and (especially) Elazar Stern who dropped out of the Jewish Agency leader race because of personal failures.
- first new person is a regional council leader in #18, unlikely to add much.

[Coldstream]

Can someone explain why some parties have longer lists than others? Is there a reason for every party not to just have full 70 candidate lists?

[America Needs R'hllor]

Lists being submitted today and tomorrow for Israeli election: Statist Camp submitted, MK Eli Avidar submitted his "Free Israel" list polling squarely at 0.0%, his list is just a bunch of anonymous protesters. Labor refusing a last minute union with Meretz

[America Needs R'hllor]

Can someone explain why some parties have longer lists than others? Is there a reason for every party not to just have full 70 candidate lists?

The full list would be 120. Some parties such as Likud, Labor and Meretz are traditional parties who usually submit full lists, usually beyond the candidates elected in the primary they put various party figure and in the last spots respected party elders (as a sign of respect). Others just don't see the need to submit full lists - not enough people who agree to run, or no need to bother with finding names.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Netanyahu met with the spiritual leader of Noam, the single- issue homophobia and sexism party. He convinced Noam to run with RZ-Otzma, MK Avi Maoz will get the 11th spot on the list

[Hnv1]

Can someone explain why some parties have longer lists than others? Is there a reason for every party not to just have full 70 candidate lists?

The full list would be 120. Some parties such as Likud, Labor and Meretz are traditional parties who usually submit full lists, usually beyond the candidates elected in the primary they put various party figure and in the last spots respected party elders (as a sign of respect). Others just don't see the need to submit full lists - not enough people who agree to run, or no need to bother with finding names.

This. Plus each person on the list needs a form and an affidavit to confirm his nomination, a logistic hassle for parties with no actual membership or branches

[America Needs R'hllor]

Joint List is OVER: Hadash-Ta'al signed up separately from Balad, who announced they're running alone. This makes Hadash-Ta'al potential partners for Lapid, but does mean the Arab vote will be even weaker and thus Netanyahu has better chances to reach a majority.

It was quite a political rollecoaster with the Joint List- Balad reached an agreement with Hadash and Ta'al this afternoon, and then a few hours ago demanded to open the agreement and renegotiate, and then relented and reached a final agreement, and a few minutes ago broke it again and announced that it's running alone.

[jaymichaud]

Good riddance to Balad.

[Hnv1]

Balad is as relevant to 2022 politics as Herzel. They won’t get more than 25K votes.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Balad is as relevant to 2022 politics as Herzel. They won’t get more than 25K votes.

My main fear is that this further dampens Arab enthusiasm. If their turnout slips below 2021 levels the center-left probably loses.