Israeli General Election (2nd of March, 2020): Madness

[Hnv1]

Netanyahu is asking for immunity from indictment which the Knesset needs to vote on. Lieberman announces he’s against and will support forming the house committee even before the next election to vote against the request. The ball is now in the speaker’s lap and he needs to approve the vote.

Bibi is desperate, delaying the trial with a heavy electoral cost

Without Leib such a bill would not have the votes and be DOA, so what's the point of pushing it now?

Procrastinating. The request automatically freezes the judicial processes. Deciding on the request takes time as it’s a semi judicial process with attorneys and Bibi’s attorneys will drag it out, and afterwards he can appeal before the SC who will take their time.

His plan is to delay the longest he can and especially after the elections that will both stop the process and might miraculously yield him a majority.

Desperate times...

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According to Wikipedia the National Union are planning to run on their own, any news on this?

Good for Lieberman, by the way.

3 knobs with a huge ego. I guess they’ll come around soon. They won’t dare running separately

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Stav Shaffir needs to act fast if she wants to remain MK. She has no support alone, even from people who like her, because she has no chance. As part of the DC, she does bring a lot of voters as the factor that tips the balance and makes it more than just Meretz.

Also, a hilarious-sad piece of new:
A party lead by Yigal Amir's wife Larisa has been approved to run next election. It doesn't express any explicit support of Rabin's murder so it was approved, but it's promoting "examining past convictions and supporting retrials".

While I don't blame Shaffir for fleeing the feckless Labor Party, I find her behavior to be totally incomprehensible lately. After the left wins a majority there will be plenty of time for grandstanding and football-spiking. But if these people aren't careful they are going to let Bibi hang onto power and put a final nail in the country's coffin. I really do like her and think she could certainly build something important in politics, but that probably requires playing along with one of the parties on the left and breaking out when she has more support.

She’s being pushed out violently by Zandberg and Freg.

[Hnv1]

New Right say the right wing to far right parties are set on running separately.

Shaffir and Meretz are kissing and making up and a Labour-Meretz merger is still being worked on. So the left and right and really moving in different directions with regards to unity. Just, I suppose, as you'd expect in an election featuring a doomed right wing prime minister.

That'd guarantee like 10-12 seats for them, right?

Would any center-left Labor voters be put off by a Meretz alliance, potentially pushing them to B&W?

Also, pretty laughable how Likud haven't won a single opinion poll this election cycle, nor have the right wing bloc gotten over 58 seats. The fall from grace is something else.

More like 7-9 seats. Each party has 1-2 seats they got from panic voters, together B&W will drink them thoroughly

[Hnv1]

New Right say the right wing to far right parties are set on running separately.

Shaffir and Meretz are kissing and making up and a Labour-Meretz merger is still being worked on. So the left and right and really moving in different directions with regards to unity. Just, I suppose, as you'd expect in an election featuring a doomed right wing prime minister.

That'd guarantee like 10-12 seats for them, right?

Would any center-left Labor voters be put off by a Meretz alliance, potentially pushing them to B&W?

Also, pretty laughable how Likud haven't won a single opinion poll this election cycle, nor have the right wing bloc gotten over 58 seats. The fall from grace is something else.

More like 7-9 seats. Each party has 1-2 seats they got from panic voters, together B&W will drink them thoroughly

Yep, though initial polls would show them with 12-14 I assume.

Also, I've seen nothing with Shaffir and Meretz making up- only that she offered to give up the 2nd place to a representative of the Arab community and that Meretz want to push her down to the unrealistic 6th as payment for all she sacrificed and did to save them last time. At this point, after how they treated her, I'm probably going to vote for Labour-Gesher.

What's their aim for this? Trying to steal votes from JL?

Well, steal is kind of a harsh word for that, but basically creating a Jewish-Arab partnership that could get some Arab votes. I personally don't know if it's such a great idea politically, but whatever.

Isn't that the purpose Hadash was supposed to serve? Also, would many Arab-Israelis vote for a Zionist party?

Not everyone want the communist led “partnership”. Some Jewish voter will also feel more comfortable with a party with a larger Jewish representation as their first step leftwards

[Hnv1]

Meretz are just backstabbing Shaffir. She might not be an electoral asset but half a year ago they begged her to join to be a bridge between them and Barak. Now Zandberg and Freg with their massive ego are pushing her out.

Peretz is acting like a complete bellend about the merger and persists with his objections. his arguments aren't even coherent anymore after he spinned a proposal for a triple merger with B&W yesterday. With Bibi is probably the last remain of the ultra egoistic politicians of the 80's\90's

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So Kachlon is retiring

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The immunity process is not going to end before the election and then it will have to start over

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The immunity process is not going to end before the election and then it will have to start over

I actually think that is not correct. Once a Knesset special committee denies a request for immunity not only is the immunity process self-evidently over but it cannot be revived with a new Knesset, either.

I should start taking legal bets here.

Anyhow, it’s a semi judicial process with attorneys and he has very good attorneys who can drag it out. The formation of the committee will be challenged in the SC, and the decision of the committee either way could be challenged. This is not going to take 2-3 weeks.

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Moshe Kahlon is retiring from politics. Can’t say I’ll miss him- he stood for nothing.

Already reported it on Friday:) his party lives on with the incoming Welfare Minister to mooch more money through party funding.

Israel politics at the moment has no room for a party between Likud and B&W.

Labour and Meretz are heading for a joint run followed by a post election breakup. Peretz basically wants to be in B&W’s future coalition and they aren’t going to get Meretz in.

[Hnv1]

Moshe Kahlon is retiring from politics. Can’t say I’ll miss him- he stood for nothing.

Already reported it on Friday:) his party lives on with the incoming Welfare Minister to mooch more money through party funding.

Israel politics at the moment has no room for a party between Likud and B&W.

Labour and Meretz are heading for a joint run followed by a post election breakup. Peretz basically wants to be in B&W’s future coalition and they aren’t going to get Meretz in.

I think this is probably for the best. I’m assuming it’ll just be a technical bloc, right?

Yes. Though I can’t see both a parties carrying on as independent entities for much longer. I assume that Meretz post election with only 2-3 MKs will go into “liquidation”

[Hnv1]

Well, Orly Levy announced a union with Meretz is necessary, so this obstacle is gone. And according to unofficial agreements, Stav Shaffir is off the list- read, backstabbed.

The union will land 6-8 seats and hopefully Gilon is out. Wretched parties

[Hnv1]

Well, Orly Levy announced a union with Meretz is necessary, so this obstacle is gone. And according to unofficial agreements, Stav Shaffir is off the list- read, backstabbed.

The union will land 6-8 seats and hopefully Gilon is out. Wretched parties

And where will those 3-5 seats go? B&W?

Most of them. 0.5-1 seats would go to the JL. Now that they can’t scare voters we can see their real worth.
B&W would be aiming for the 40 seats and a big gap from Likud for a clear victory picture

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Labour-Gesher-Meretz union official. Looks like the top 5 will be this:
1. Peretz
2. Levy
3. Horovitz
4. Zandberg
5. Shmuli

6. Michaeli
7. Golan
8. Gilon
9. Bar Lev
10. Suede
11. Freg


Poor Freg, I thought pushing Shaffir down was to make room for him...oh it was a spin.

I hope they get 7 seats

[Hnv1]

Well, Orly Levy announced a union with Meretz is necessary, so this obstacle is gone. And according to unofficial agreements, Stav Shaffir is off the list- read, backstabbed.

The union will land 6-8 seats and hopefully Gilon is out. Wretched parties

The joint run will not get six seats. Good grief. They will clearly get at least 8 and probably nine or ten.

Want to have a bet? Lunch next time I’m in Jerusalem

I’m positive this list gets no more than 7 seats. B&W will get 38, JL 14

[Hnv1]

Well, Orly Levy announced a union with Meretz is necessary, so this obstacle is gone. And according to unofficial agreements, Stav Shaffir is off the list- read, backstabbed.

The union will land 6-8 seats and hopefully Gilon is out. Wretched parties

The joint run will not get six seats. Good grief. They will clearly get at least 8 and probably nine or ten.

Want to have a bet? Lunch next time I’m in Jerusalem

I’m positive this list gets no more than 7 seats. B&W will get 38, JL 14

Lol sorry what

DU and Labor-Gesher got 405k votes between them in September, do you expect 40% of their voterbase to die before March?

I’ll say 10. JL 13, B&W 37. I’ve seen no reason to assume the Joint List will gain more seats- the only thing that will push them to 14/15 is if the Jewish Home fail to meet the threshold and NR underperform.

A substantial amount of Labour and Meretz voters voted out of fear not sympathy. That fear is now gone. Literally no one responded with any positive feedback to this Union. Absolute silence on social media

[Hnv1]

Well, Orly Levy announced a union with Meretz is necessary, so this obstacle is gone. And according to unofficial agreements, Stav Shaffir is off the list- read, backstabbed.

The union will land 6-8 seats and hopefully Gilon is out. Wretched parties

The joint run will not get six seats. Good grief. They will clearly get at least 8 and probably nine or ten.

Want to have a bet? Lunch next time I’m in Jerusalem

I’m positive this list gets no more than 7 seats. B&W will get 38, JL 14

Lol sorry what

DU and Labor-Gesher got 405k votes between them in September, do you expect 40% of their voterbase to die before March?

I’ll say 10. JL 13, B&W 37. I’ve seen no reason to assume the Joint List will gain more seats- the only thing that will push them to 14/15 is if the Jewish Home fail to meet the threshold and NR underperform.

When you are close to the threshold, a party picks up voters easier since they fear the party missing the threshold and getting 0 seats. It's a rational conclusion that since both parties no longer have to fear that demarcation line, some  'softer' voters will migrate to other left/arab parties. The combined list no longer has the ability to stoke fear and gain those 'fear' voters who might normally be considering similar parties.

Oh come on. No center-left liberal Zionist is going to vote for a party with the Islamic Movement or f**king Balad.

No. But a left wing Zionist would. JL already pulled around 5-10K of them last time, would be easier now

[Hnv1]

The musical chairs on the right continue, as Smotrich joins with New Right. Peretz now has to decide if he's joining again or going alone with Otzma.

I know right wing voters who will be deterred from voting the NU in. Shame for the NR, they could have capitalized on Likud voters disillusioned with Bibi but not wanting to go to Gantz

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Taking the cake for the most deplorable party in this election, somehow even exceeding the fascist-theocratic union of the Jewish Home and Otzma: Larisa Trimbuvler, the wife of Rabin's murderer Yigal Amir, founded a new party named "Just Trial" that explicitly demands a retrial for Amir and "other innocent prisoners", as well as the usual bs of "judicial reform".
Obviously, no chance to pass the threshold.

Why do people think that Amir didn't kill Rabin?

The fringes of the far right believe he was pushed to do so by an undercover agent of the internal intelligence service.

The fringe of the fringe of the fringe believe in even wilder theories.

But deep down they just think he did anything wrong

[Hnv1]

Former Zehut incels are now running in 2 different micro parties. The New Liberal Party & Liberal and economic strength party. The latter more edgy with some weed activist currently in jail as number 2.

Both will take 10-20K votes from the right mostly.

While we’re at it can we add another Atlas color for Liberals who dislike libertarians?

[Hnv1]

Former Zehut incels are now running in 2 different micro parties. The New Liberal Party & Liberal and economic strength party. The latter more edgy with some weed activist currently in jail as number 2.

Both will take 10-20K votes from the right mostly.

While we’re at it can we add another Atlas color for Liberals who dislike libertarians?

I've heard about the latter, lead by Gilad Alper (Zehut #2 so pretty prominent in libertarian circles). What about the New Liberals? Haven't heard of them.

Also, I'm compelled to be edgy and say the D avatar is for you, but we need to keep some ORDER among the Israeli posters (hint hint Danny go R! hint)

The new Liberals are led by Libby Molad who was number 3 Zehut with the rest of the Zehut crew. Oh and the support of Prof. Omer Moav. They’re more “serious”

How is a JL voter who dislikes Marxism a D? Maybe I should go O? Existential crisis here

[Hnv1]

Meretz and Labour are now officially together. Anyone knows how many historical parties have immersed in this move? (It’s much more than 10)

[Hnv1]

Meretz and Labour are now officially together. Anyone knows how many historical parties have immersed in this move? (It’s much more than 10)

Ratz
Mapam
Mapai
?

That’s the easy ones. I got to 19

[Hnv1]

Meretz and Labour are now officially together. Anyone knows how many historical parties have immersed in this move? (It’s much more than 10)

Depends on how pedantic we want to get.

From the top:

Labor-Gesher-Meretz

Easiest one first: Gesher (1)
From Orly Levy: Yisrael Beiteinu (2)

Democratic Union (3)
Meretz (4)
-Ratz (5)
--Ya'ad-Civil Rights Movement (6)
--Left Camp of Israel (7)
---Independent Socialist Faction (8 )
---Meri (9)
---Moked (10)
----Maki (11)
-----Hebrew Communists (12)
-----Palestine Communist Party (13)
-----National Liberation League (14)
----Siah (15)
---Black Panthers (16)
-Mapam (17)
--Hashomer Hatzair (18)
---Socialist League of Palestine (19)
--Poale Zion (20)
-Shinui (21)
--Dash (22)

Democratic Israel (23)
From Ehud Barak: Independence  (24)

Democratic Choice (25)
-Yisrael BaAliyah (26)

Avoda (27)
Mapai (28)
-Ahdut haAvoda (29)
-Hapoel Hatzair (30)
Rafi (31)

From Labor alliances:
HaMaarakh (32)
One Israel (33)
Zionist Union (34)

From Amir Peretz:
One Nation (35)
Hatnuah (36)
- Hetz (37)

Possible additions: Kadima from Hatnuah, Likud from Kadima , Greens from DU and Hatnuah, Meimad from Greens. Possibly Kulanu from Avi Gabbay, if we're being silly, and Likud again from Kulanu, and then all of the Likud historical bullsh**t. And we can even get all of Mapam's Arab and other satellites.

That’s more of genealogy than what I meant as formations actually absorbed by them over the years

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Gadi ybarkan may defect from B&W to Likud for the promise of the 20th spot. Likud lost some Ethiopian voters to B&W in September and desperate Bibi is trying to turn the tide.

This defection is straight of the late 80's, Ybarkan called likue a party without value and said Ethiopians can't be baught less than a month ago.