Ontario general election 2018 - Results Thread

[DC Al Fine]

And this is why despite all the complaints about it, I like the two party system in the US. So frustrating to see RW Govt's take power because of a fractured left wing.

Eh. There's underlying assumptions there that Liberal + NDP are "mere progressives" to borrow a Christian term and that merged party would get 100% of their votes. I don't believe that either assumption is true. The Liberals and NDP are more diverse than their old conservative counterparts and therefore would have trouble holding that coalition together.

I mean, can you really see Scott Brison sitting in a caucus with say Niki Ashton? My guess is if the Liberals and NDP merged right-Liberals would jump to the Tories in sufficient numbers to create a 50/50 two party system like Oz and the USA.

[DC Al Fine]

Some other thoughts:

1) Lol Vaughan-Woodbridge

2) I'm surprised how well some Liberal incumbents help up outside Toronto.

3) Look at some of the Liberal results in rural southwestern Ontario and compare to 2003/2007. Oh how the mighty have fallen.

[DC Al Fine]

Polling does suggest that the bedrock ~20% of Liberal supporters lean more towards the NDP as their second choice though, so there is room for the NDP to improve if the Liberals spend the next four years running around like chickens with their heads cut off.

And that's a very real risk for the Liberals. People look at Trudeau and Canadian volatility and assume that they'll be back fairly quickly. Trudeau was rather exceptional. There are lots of examples of parties suffering this sort of defeat either fading away or at least spending a long time in the wilderness.

My guess is that they are in for a long time in the wilderness but will eventually get back into power.

[DC Al Fine]

Which seats have the largest relative differences between their federal and provincial results? I'm assuming it's Etobicoke North for the Tories. I.e. Ford outpaced the provincial vote by 12% while the federal Tories underperformed their provincial vote by 12% for a total variance of 24%

[DC Al Fine]

Please use this thread exclusively for discussion and analysis of results, trying to keep partisan commentary and cheerleading to a minimum.

The usual rules apply.

Results links
https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/onvotes/results/
https://www.thestar.com/news/ontario_election.html
http://windsorstar.com/tag/2018-Ontario-Election
https://globalnews.ca/news/4257183/ontario-election-results-2018/

Last time: http://www.election-atlas.ca/ont/

Compare the map on the last link to the maps on the other links.

[DC Al Fine]

Here's the full list:

Cape Breton--Canso changes to Cape Breton--North Nova
South Shore--St. Margarets changes to South Nova
Sydney--Victoria changes to Cape Breton by the Sea
Bellechasse--Les Etchemins--Lévis changes to Lévis--Bellechasse--Etchemins
Jonquière changes to Jonquière–Haut-Saguenay
Manicouagan changes to Côte-Nord
Saint-Hyacinthe--Bagot changes to Saint-Hyacinthe--Acton
Mississauga--Streetsville changes to Streetsville--Meadowvale--Lisgar
Nickel Belt changes to Greater Sudbury--Nickel Belt
Charleswood--St. James--Assiniboia--Headingley changes to Winnipeg West--Headingley
Regina--Lewvan changes to Regina West
Calgary Signal Hill changes to Calgary West
Fort McMurray--Cold Lake changes to Fort McMurray--Lac La Biche--Cold Lake
Burnaby South changes to Burnaby--Douglas
Langley--Aldergrove changes to Langley--West Abbotsford
Mission--Matsqui--Fraser Canyon changes to Abbotsford--Mission--Fraser Canyon

Effing ____ Nova riding names. Let's rename Fundy Royal to Southeast New and Abbotsford to British South while we're at it

[DC Al Fine]

What is it with you people and your bizarre hypotheticals? Horwath led the NDP to their best result in over 25 years. She's safe. Atlas would probably be speculating about kicking Diefenbaker out in 1957 too

[DC Al Fine]

This thread looks like it always needs a few Canadian posters to anchor it, so I'll do my part and see how it goes...

• The problem with terms like "left-liberals" or "progressive coalition" is that they're vague to almost being meaningless. I can see why it's seductive for international observers to take the following interpretation seriously:
  
  https://twitter.com/DougSaunders/status/1004805693826916352
  
  But even if the differences between the OLP and the ONDP are now merely "tribal," such tribal differences are still important demographically and electorally. Especially since the two parties are so ostensibly similar in policy but have varying political bases, the more interesting question is what kind of candidates and local issues the parties can use to move into areas once considered "dead" to the party.
  
  This is why I'm not really impressed by takes that say the ONDP should be "more moderate" or "stick to their principles" or whatever. To show I'm not just being abstract, I was personally annoyed near the end that the NDP platform didn't diversify beyond promising universal pharmacare and dental care. It would have been a no-brainer to make rural broadband a serious part of the platform, in a country where an oligopolistic telecoms industry lacks the incentive to cheapen internet access. A promise from the NDP to add one commuter rail line also wasn't flashy enough when you're competing against one of the Ford Brothers, who already spent years talking about how much he wishes to expand subways and highways if The Elites let him.
  
  
• While the PCPO ran a convincing victory, I don't feel like a new coalition for conservatives is really emerging here. Case in point: Ford's PCs got ~40.6% of the vote this year, but Harper's 2011 Conservatives got 44.4% of the Ontario share!
  
  If you look at the505's somewhat overkill map of the 2011 election, you can see that the Tories back then also ran up the margins in North York, Mississauga, York/Durham and Chatham and Sarnia too.
  
  Another important note, if you read stuff like Paul Wells's report on the election, is that the Ford campaign was staffed by either ex-Harper people (Teneycke, Byrne) or old hands from the PCPO (Froggatt). These guys may had less time to prepare than in past campaigns, but they knew the model for a victory. (This is also why I dislike talk of Ford being "America's Trump" since he clearly followed orders from the party's electoral strategy.)
  
  Look, Teneycke is an early Harper guy and he was around when Harper made his pledge to cut the GST by 2%; same dude tried the same message with Ford and "Buck-a-beer/10 cents off gas", but when Harper did it the tactic was "conservative" but when Ford did it the tactic is "populist."
  
  
• At the end of the day, Canadian conservatives today have dreams of displacing the Liberals to be "Canada's 21st century natural governing party." I would also say that post-Harper, there is a party consensus to not run boisterously on social issues like abortion or LGBT rights.
  
  The only remaining major debate, I think, is on "leadership style." Should a conservative leader run more in the clinical, evasive style of Harper or the combative but relatable style of the Fords? There is a tradeoff here: being combative but relatable galvanizes the base, but overdo it and both the opposing parties and the media will successfully define the leader early on in the tenure, leading to a doomed candidacy.
  
  At the moment both leadership styles have assembled similar coalitions in Ontario to win a majority of the province's seats in one election, and a victory in Ontario is almost critical to chances of a federal Conservative government. The current Conservative leader, Scheer, is nonetheless more Harper-like than Ford, whose most relatable characteristic is being "doughy." So, if you see hot takes from Canadian Conservatives like this:
  https://twitter.com/PierrePoilievre/status/1005113965599338496
  Don't take it seriously; this is signaling. In particular, Poilievre during the Harper days was infamous as a right-wing troll, so we know which side he takes on the leadership style debate.
  

Ugh that Doug Saunders tweet was cringeworthy. I can't believe you can get a column in a national paper and not know at least the basics of our electoral geography.

[DC Al Fine]

Earl, where's the lolLiberals swing map ?

[DC Al Fine]

The Liberals would probably do well to look outside of the provincial caucus for a leader.  There are a number of federal liberals who could be considered, and what about John Tory?

.........

Why would the Liberals look at John Tory for leader?

Because, as far as I can tell, he is the highest profile *liberal* in Ontario.

But he's not a Liberal. Not even close. He's supported the Conservatives both Federally and Provincially since at least 1988, and probably before that too.

Oh and of course, there is the little issue that he was Ontario PC leader.

Not exactly comparable; but the little issue that he was Ontario NDP Premier didn't dissuade Bob Rae from seeking the federal Liberal leadership;  (And even less exactly comparable: federal PC leader Jean Charest becoming Quebec Liberal Premier)

John Tory is the defacto Liberal mayor of Toronto. 

Only because there was no Liberal candidate for mayor in 2014, and for some reason (Ok, strategic voting to stop Ford) Liberals/progressives didn't want to vote for Olivia Chow.

You think?  My understanding is that he has been embraced by the Liberals since becoming mayor.

Has he embraced them?

I don't know why John Tory of all people would want the OLP leadership. Perhaps he's a masochist and wants to mix losing in Don Valley West with losing a by-election in a safe seat in a cocktail of his old failures

[DC Al Fine]

Earl, where's the lolLiberals swing map ?

You're a sadist. But fine:

Hey now. There's very little for me to like in Canadian politics. Let me have this one thing

[DC Al Fine]

However, if the NDP actually attempts to reach the median voter in the Toronto suburbs then there is a good chance swing voters might not break as favorably for the PCs. In 2015 after all, Vaughan-Woodbridge gave the Libs+NDP combined around 53.5% in 2015, and it doesn't look like the riding changed all that much in redistricting. So there are clearly swing voters who would vote against the PC if given the proper appeal.

Vaughan is the epicenter of "blue Liberalism" in Ontario and given how the right-wing flank of the Liberal vote ditched Kathleen Wynne for moving the party too far to the left, it's not surprising how much the PC vote shot up there.  

Just because the combined Lib+NDP vote exceeded 50% doesn't mean it's winnable for a more centrist NDP once the PCs become less popular.  Unless the Liberals die completely and the NDP really morphs into something like the US Democrats.  But the party cultures are different and I expect some seats to turn blue if the NDP becomes the dominant force on the center-left.  Vaughan and other York Region seats are of course the type of places a renewed Liberal Party can win seats if they become a contender again.

Agreed. This might work for an election or two but it's not like the left would get endless majorities while the right is content to lose every election 60-40. The left would overreach or the right would adjust or both.

[DC Al Fine]

Kitchener-Waterloo is trending away from the Tories very quickly. I started following politics in the mid 2000's. I still find it kind of weird to see the Tories doing so poorly in mid sized cities while doing so well in ethnic Toronto suburbs.

[DC Al Fine]

Kitchener-Waterloo is trending away from the Tories very quickly. I started following politics in the mid 2000's

It was only held provincially because of a popular incumbent.

Kitchener-Waterloo is also a name for the metropolitan area.

[DC Al Fine]

Actually, Liberal support was stronger in the north part of the county, which is a bit more 'urban' what with Pembroke and Petawawa, etc, but also contains more 'remote' communities up the Ottawa Valley, and further into the rugged interior. The south part of the riding (which includes the Town of Renfrew itself) is much more rural and has an agricultural base, and was often lumped with historically (and still is) Tory Carleton County (now rural Ottawa), which helped the Tories win that riding.

I'd always sort of figured this from the provincial history, but confirmation is good. Though above I was just referring to the county - i.e. that it's peculiarities aren't to do with the second part of the name.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Renfrew County is pretty Catholic and there are also substantial Catholic populations in parts of the SW, particularly further south - in a period in which a big part of the PC brand was anchored in overt support for a Protestant Ascendancy (and so anti-Catholic discrimination) that would have been a pretty big incentive to vote Liberal, and as a tribal marker will have lasted longer. And the parts of the SW that are not all Catholic (i.e. further north) weren't they historically Methodist rather than Anglican?

Also o/c it's not so much that the old provincial Liberals were the right-wing party as a right-wing party, specifically the right-wing party that styled itself as anti-elite, anti-Toronto etc, rather than the right-wing party associated with those things.

All of which leads me to suspect whether an awful lot of this is just a generational shift - genepool Liberals dying and their children not having the reasons for party loyalty that they did.

That's partially true, but OTOH SW Ontario has seen some massive, rapid drop offs for the Liberals, much too quick to be purely generational.

[DC Al Fine]

That's partially true, but OTOH SW Ontario has seen some massive, rapid drop offs for the Liberals, much too quick to be purely generational.

And in the industrial towns as much as the countryside. Though I wonder whether there's an issue there of popular incumbents defying gravity. In part - that could only explain part.

But I suspect the answer there is that... well... if we consider Liberalism in the SW to have been based on peripheral backlash politics, then the policies and rhetoric of the now late Liberal government, the official ideology of which was literally Woke Neoliberalism by the end...

That seems like the best explanation.

[DC Al Fine]

Rather unfortunately Canadian MPs often get to re-name their constituencies using private members bills. Which leads to the absurdity of Town-Town-Village-Every-Fycking-Molehill-Between-Here-And-There. Or, even worse, Town-Village-Hamlet-Tourist Name For Pretty Countryside No On Lives In.

I'd be happy if my province could change a riding name to something that isn't _______ f ucking Nova

[DC Al Fine]

Rather unfortunately Canadian MPs often get to re-name their constituencies using private members bills. Which leads to the absurdity of Town-Town-Village-Every-Fycking-Molehill-Between-Here-And-There. Or, even worse, Town-Village-Hamlet-Tourist Name For Pretty Countryside No On Lives In.

I'd be happy if my province could change a riding name to something that isn't _______ f ucking Nova

New riding name change: Halifax > Halifax Nova.

Lol

[DC Al Fine]

Any advance poll results yet?  Wouldn't mind knowing how they compare to the general election count...

Judging by the regular polls there will be one major advance poll for each riding plus half a dozen random apartment building polls.