2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Our Progress election forecast has Trump only getting 60% of the vote in Forsyth! Biden also very close to 40%.

https://www.ourprogress.org/president/georgia

Forsyth was Trump 70.6 - 23.7 - 5.7 in 2016.  

60-40 would be stunning and perhaps indicative of the type of shift coming in Other suburbs (Montgomery 👀) I don’t think ForsythVoter even expected this.

That'd be a 26 point swing in Biden's favor. That's a statewide win.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

AOC calls out Biden and Democratic Party over failure to win Latinx vote:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-election-2020/aoc-twitter-biden-election-results-latino-voters-b1578094.html?utm_content=Echobox&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook#Echobox=1604465253

Let’s see her do better

I mean... she’s right. Appealing to moderate Republicans wasn’t the path to victory this year. If we win, it’s because Democrats that didn’t show up in 2016 came back in MI/WI/PA this year.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

This is what happens when we let old black people and moderate Republicans choose the Democratic Nominee.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

So is Cunningham done in NC?

He was a loser when Schumer tipped the scales in the primary and he's a dumba$$ loser now for costing us the Senate cause he couldn't keep it in his pants.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

I've got to say, 2020 may be the very last time the Democrats run on a "Midwest strategy".

A "sunbelt strategy" might be the way to go from now on.

Demographics are changing and the Democrats need to stop running old white men and women on the ticket.

Except Kamala Harris is not an old white woman. I'm now convinced that Biden made a mistake by selecting her as his running mate. He should have gone with Tammy Duckworth, Cory Booker, or Julian Castro.

What was Kamala even supposed to add to the ticket?

Biden "owed" black voters.

One of the worst VP picks in recent memory, and Tim Kaine was only four years ago!

Kamala’s not the reason for this underperformance. Hell, we don’t even know if it’s Biden’s fault yet. All we can do right now is wait for every vote to be counted, see where the chips lay, and then engage in deep introspection as a party about what we stand for and where we wanna go in the future (which we were denied this year by Bernie & Biden refusing to retire).

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

If there’s one thing I think I’ve learned from the last 4 years, it’s that rural counties should require civics tests before they’re residents are allowed to vote.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Just a very weird and disappointing election overall. Biden seemingly doing worse than Clinton in many working-class areas ranging from Youngstown to the Rio Grande Valley despite an admirable recovery in the Iron Range and New England. Even the denser white working class suburbs which I had thought were more winnable (Macomb, Long Island, Staten Island) have swung massively towards Trump with him currently leading in Nassau. Blue Dog Democrats like Bullock, Peterson, Torres-Small lost their races. A Democratic Senate looks increasingly unlikely and its clear that the dominant narrative will be that Trump defied the polls yet again even if Biden pulls through on the outstanding absentee ballots in the Rust Belt trio. Any semblance of moral victory against Trumpism or of a decisive electoral defeat for the GOP has been lost. At best, Biden will preside over a replay of Obama's second term with all the potential for midterm disaster and a rerun of Trumpism in 2024 that it entails.

I hate saying this, but I actually want Trump to win at this point. A Biden Presidency with a Republican Senate and an underwhelming electoral mandate would usher in a revival of Trumpism in 2024-with a banner carried by a more electorally formidable and "relatable" Republican candidate such as Hawley or DeSantis. Trump winning this year would give Democrats a fighting chance at a decent midterm in 2022 and the White House in 2024.

Just no. Another four years of Trump will be absolutely horrible, give us a 7-2 supreme court, more relentless attacks on democratic institutions and lead to absolute apathy amongst democratic voters, especially after this election result.

It's a choice between two evils for many. Biden's agenda will be blocked by McConnell, and Republicans would be poised to regain control of the House in 2022, ridding off anti-Biden backlash. Recent political history shows us that such an outcome is very possible.

I don't think there will be an anti-Biden backlash, with Biden not being able to pass anything in the first place.

Biden could still do a lot with the powers of the executive. Yes, a hack Supreme Court could block it, but at that point the court process could take months or even years. A President Biden could wipe away student debt for millions just by giving an order to his Education Secretary.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

As regards Pennsylvania, I think Biden will also make it. Again, look at the swings in the counties where almost all of the vote has been reported.

A 7-point swing in Pike.
A 4-point swing in Lackawanna.
A 5-point swing in Wayne.
A 4-point swing in York.
A 5-point swing in Dauphin.

Just a 1-point swing needed in PA, folks, and so many ballots pending in Philly, the suburbs, Allegheny and Eire. Barring a disaster in those counties (and, judging by Biden's performance in the suburbs elsewhere, I doubt it), he's taking PA.

Right...in evaluatiing these states with a big early vs. election day split, we essentially need to entirely ignore the statewide vote count and just look at the places where the vote has been completed.  And in every midwestern state, these numbers look pretty good for Biden (though not as good as we would have liked at the beginning of the night).

Okay, but then Trump challenges the results and it goes to the Supreme Court.  Then what?

At that point, Civil War wouldn’t be out of the question if they ruled in his favor. This issue isn’t justiciable by any standard.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

It’s coming.

https://twitter.com/MegJonesJS/status/1323917549000663041?s=20

These people just keep pushing back the time the vote totals will be updated. They’d be up “in an hour” 3 hours ago.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Wtf’s happening in Arizona?

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

House-ton County

I just...gagged a little. 

Relax, that's my hometown. We're very touchy on people mispronouncing our name.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

But... when is the non-concession bump coming??