MA-SEN Megathread: Senator Markey wins

[Indy Texas 🇺🇦🇵🇸]

There are now rumors flying on Twitter that some of the Election Twitter folks made up the Gravis poll in an attempt to carry out a pump-and-dump scheme on PredictIt markets.

Does anyone know what the hell is going on?!

[Indy Texas 🇺🇦🇵🇸]

Any MA experts have an indication of which way the race likely goes at this (early) point?

Too early to say. Neither candidate is running away with it.

If Kennedy loses, I wonder what that means for his future career. On one hand, it's impressive to run against an incumbent and come close to beating them. But it seems he's alienated many progressives by primarying Markey, and he'd come out of this looking pretty bad. I can't imagine him not running for higher office again in the near future.

It doesn't help that he had no coherent, justifiable reason for running beyond "I'm a Kennedy and I'm bored in the job I have now." If Markey had done something to seriously alienate Democrats or engaged in corrupt behavior, that would have been another thing.

Even the age argument (Markey's 74) rings hollow when you consider he's really not "old" by the standards of the modern Senate. Compare to say, when Barry Goldwater nearly lost in 1980 in part because his opponent argued he was too old to keep up with the job (he was 71 at the time).

[Indy Texas 🇺🇦🇵🇸]

Why is Kennedy doing so well in minority areas? Is it perhaps nostalgia for his grandfather, who was beloved by black voters? Or his recent appeals to those voters on racial justice issues?

Maybe because Markey opposed desegregation of Boston schools? Just a thought

The Kennedys implicitly supported segregated schools by virtue of sending their children to expensive private schools that only white people could afford to attend.

[Indy Texas 🇺🇦🇵🇸]

https://twitter.com/dick_nixon/status/1300966503068692480?s=20

[Indy Texas 🇺🇦🇵🇸]

Why is Kennedy doing so well in minority areas? Is it perhaps nostalgia for his grandfather, who was beloved by black voters? Or his recent appeals to those voters on racial justice issues?

Maybe because Markey opposed desegregation of Boston schools? Just a thought

Cry more and then vote Markey this November )

I just find it funny. Markey is an old career politician who voted for the 1994 Crime Bill, the Iraq War, and has been accused of not adequately supporting desegregation back in the day.

“Progressives” made Joe Biden out to be horrible for all of these things, yet passionately defend Markey. Who is being challenged by someone with just as progressive ideas but is much younger.

There is no ideological consistency here. It just goes to show how much of the “progressive” vs. “establishment” divide is style and how little of it is substance.

One of the craziest things about the primary was Bernie people yelling about how terrible the crime bill was when Bernie Sanders voted for it.

My personal take on it is that being tough on crime is what voters wanted at that time in a context where violent crimes had recently reached an all-time high and a lot of academic research suggested more punitive approaches were warranted (Hillary's "superpredators" comment was in reference to a psychological theory about what drives people to commit crimes). (It's worth noting that Kennedy's father also voted for it.)

[Indy Texas 🇺🇦🇵🇸]

Meanwhile, Kevin O'Connor is beating Shiva Ayyadurai.

Is there any ethnic Republican who has managed to win a primary this year over a white candidate? Even the ones who had all the money and support lost (ex. Hawatmeh in NY).

[Indy Texas 🇺🇦🇵🇸]

Meanwhile, Kevin O'Connor is beating Shiva Ayyadurai.

Is there any ethnic Republican who has managed to win a primary this year over a white candidate? Even the ones who had all the money and support lost (ex. Hawatmeh in NY).

Maybe the ones with European sounding names.

That's what I mean: it's basically become impossible to win a GOP primary with a non-"white" sounding name. (As in South Asian/African/Middle Eastern, not Irish/Italian/Polish.)

[Indy Texas 🇺🇦🇵🇸]

Markey's numbers in Natick and Newton compared against Kennedy's numbers in Springfield and Worcester make one thing clear: this race has never been about progressive vs establishment or house vs senate. It's about the wealthy (Markey's base) vs everyone ese (Kennedy's base). So much for being on the side of the working man, Markey bros.

Kennedy is running against the co-writer of the GND, so your comment makes no sense.

In terms of coalitions, it absolutely makes sense. Places like Wellesley and Natick are wealthy and establishment in every sense of the word and yet they're propelling Markey's majority.

Living in a town/county with an above-average median household income does not make someone "Establishment."

Is a high school librarian in Wellesley part of some elite Establishment?

[Indy Texas 🇺🇦🇵🇸]

Markey's numbers in Natick and Newton compared against Kennedy's numbers in Springfield and Worcester make one thing clear: this race has never been about progressive vs establishment or house vs senate. It's about the wealthy (Markey's base) vs everyone ese (Kennedy's base). So much for being on the side of the working man, Markey bros.

Kennedy is running against the co-writer of the GND, so your comment makes no sense.

In terms of coalitions, it absolutely makes sense. Places like Wellesley and Natick are wealthy and establishment in every sense of the word and yet they're propelling Markey's majority.

Ah, so environmentalism is merely the concern of white, well-off and well-educated people?

Not at all. My point is that Markey is simply winning based on the votes of Massachusetts most elite. As it happens, Markey's message has little appeal outside these communities which would imply his environmentalist of the people schtick isn't being bought by the people he claims he's fighting for.

The present Democratic environmental agenda really doesn't animate a lot of people other than college-educated young and/or white people. This is part of the reason I don't think the GND makes sense as a front-and-center policy item for the party.

But remember also that Democratic primary dynamics are such that Stephen Lynch, who is a former ironworker and trade unionist, is facing a primary challenge from Robbie Goldstein, a wealthy doctor who thinks Lynch is too conservative. Old-school class politics don't work the way a lot of people assume.

[Indy Texas 🇺🇦🇵🇸]

Markey's numbers in Natick and Newton compared against Kennedy's numbers in Springfield and Worcester make one thing clear: this race has never been about progressive vs establishment or house vs senate. It's about the wealthy (Markey's base) vs everyone ese (Kennedy's base). So much for being on the side of the working man, Markey bros.

Kennedy is running against the co-writer of the GND, so your comment makes no sense.

In terms of coalitions, it absolutely makes sense. Places like Wellesley and Natick are wealthy and establishment in every sense of the word and yet they're propelling Markey's majority.

Living in a town/county with an above-average median household income does not make someone "Establishment."

Is a high school librarian in Wellesley part of some elite Establishment?

Doesn't sound populist to me! I dub thee elitist!

Book readers are New People! Send them to the killing- er- to the rice fields!

[Indy Texas 🇺🇦🇵🇸]

Maybe the ones with European sounding names.

That's what I mean: it's basically become impossible to win a GOP primary with a non-"white" sounding name. (As in South Asian/African/Middle Eastern, not Irish/Italian/Polish.)

One exception: Mike Garcia beating Steve Knight.

Mike Garcia is still a pretty White sounding name. It could be Hispanic, or it could be Spanish. It's not like as nonwhite a name as like, Cristina Tzintzún Ramirez or Raul Grijalva.

But yeah it'll be interesting to see how it goes in the future. As Hispanics assimilate more into White society, there should be GOP candidates of Hispanic origin in the long term.

California's open primary muddies things a bit.

As for the other two, Democratic primary dynamics are very different, especially in the Southwest. In Texas, if anything it's to your benefit to have a Hispanic surname. That's why Trey Martínez Fischer began using his mother's maiden name as a middle name; that's why Chrysta Castañeda is not using her maiden name (she's an Anglo lady married to a Hispanic man).

[Indy Texas 🇺🇦🇵🇸]

Reminder of how giving the State of the Union response seems to so often doom you when you want to advance your career any further.

2010 - Gov. Bob McDonnell (went to prison for corruption)
2011 - Rep. Paul Ryan (lost VP campaign; brief speakership was a disaster)
2012 - Gov. Mitch Daniels (never ran for POTUS or Senate)
2013 - Sen. Marco Rubio (2016 presidential campaign imploded)
2014 - Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (term limited out of her chairmanship and has no hope of election to higher office in her state)
2015 - Sen. Joni Ernst (let's see how this goes)
2016 - Gov. Nikki Haley (is going to run for president in 2024 and do about as well as Jeb did)
2018 - Rep. Joe Kennedy (tried and failed to primary an incumbent senator)

[Indy Texas 🇺🇦🇵🇸]

Kennedy's loss, as noted above, means he is the first member of that family to ever lose an election in Massachusetts. And another thing-once his House term ends on January 3, 2021, it will be the first time in 74 years that no direct descendant of Joseph Kennedy Sr. will hold elected office anywhere in the United States. This doesn't count Amy Kennedy, Van Drew's opponent in New Jersey, who married into the family. Hopefully, the Kennedy dynasty will now find its way into the history books, like the Roosevelts and Tafts have.

Consorts are not eligible to be in the line of succession. Only Kennedys du sang have that privilege!

[Indy Texas 🇺🇦🇵🇸]

Kennedy's loss, as noted above, means he is the first member of that family to ever lose an election in Massachusetts. And another thing-once his House term ends on January 3, 2021, it will be the first time in 74 years that no direct descendant of Joseph Kennedy Sr. will hold elected office anywhere in the United States. This doesn't count Amy Kennedy, Van Drew's opponent in New Jersey, who married into the family. Hopefully, the Kennedy dynasty will now find its way into the history books, like the Roosevelts and Tafts have.

Who did between Ted's death in 2009 and Joe's election to Congress in 2012?

Patrick Kennedy, Ted Kennedy's younger son, was still in office as a Democratic Representative from Rhode Island until 2011, when he was succeeded by David Cicilline. I think there was a congressional gap between 2011 and 2013, but a two-year gap isn't that substantial in my view.

If we're using the very loose definition of "elected office anywhere in the United States," it looks like Eunice Kennedy's son Bobby was on the Santa Monica City Council during that period.

[Indy Texas 🇺🇦🇵🇸]

https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1300974079617441792?s=20

There is no red state Democrat equivalent to Baker/Hogan and that is something state-level Democrats need to address.

I would be very happy if a state like Tennessee or South Dakota would elect a Democratic governor whose entire agenda was more or less "run state agencies well and veto all the crazy $#!@ the Republican-controlled legislature passes," and Republicans basically didn't make any meaningful effort to challenge them because they were so popular.

But that's not what happens. Compare Baker and Hogan's reelections in 2018 to, say, Steve Bullock's in 2016 or John Bel Edwards' in 2019. Compare how MA Dems feel about Baker to how LA Republicans feel about Edwards.

[Indy Texas 🇺🇦🇵🇸]

https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1300974079617441792?s=20

There is no red state Democrat equivalent to Baker/Hogan and that is something state-level Democrats need to address.

I would be very happy if a state like Tennessee or South Dakota would elect a Democratic governor whose entire agenda was more or less "run state agencies well and veto all the crazy $#!@ the Republican-controlled legislature passes," and Republicans basically didn't make any meaningful effort to challenge them because they were so popular.

But that's not what happens. Compare Baker and Hogan's reelections in 2018 to, say, Steve Bullock's in 2016 or John Bel Edwards' in 2019. Compare how MA Dems feel about Baker to how LA Republicans feel about Edwards.

Wish Billie Sutton won his race

Comes down to how Dems fundamentally want to use govt to better people, while Republicans want less govt. Therefore, blue state Reps can sit in their governor chairs and veto anything too crazy, whereas red state Dem govs tend to work with Reps to pass 'better' legislation. The closest to a reverse Baker would probably be Beshear...but his vetos are useless thanks to KY law.

I agree there's an institutional difference that precedes politics: Northern states generally have "strong" governors, while Southern states generally have "weak" ones, ergo it's a lot harder for a Democratic governor in a typical red state to have the same impact as a Republican governor in a typical blue state.

[Indy Texas 🇺🇦🇵🇸]

Tory men, Whig measures. Biden men, Bernie measures.

https://twitter.com/EdMarkey/status/1300996513393520640?s=20