LA 2019 Gov Race: Gov John Bel Edwards wins a 2nd term

[smoltchanov]

JBE has governed like an R; but with a D next to his name

Lie.

[smoltchanov]

Here's my prediction map (non-Atlas colors) of combined Dem vs Rep vote, with the expectation of JBE narrowly getting sucked into a runoff 49% (50-51% with the other Dem) vs combined R vote of 47-48%. Yellow counties are bellwethers. I'm expecting the most R swing in Cajun country, the most D swing in Baton Rouge and New Orleans suburbs, and least amount of swing in NoLA.

Expecting similar results. Cajun country moved heavily to the right since 2008, IMHO - more because of continuing liberalisation of national (and, to lesser degree, state) party on social issues, which began to trump populist instincts on economy for many Cajuns (may be - partly because Obama too, but i doubt that it was the most important factor). Most of Republican gains in state legislature will also happen in that area or nearby..

[smoltchanov]

Edwards probably ends the night at 47%. I don't think he can be totally counted out, but clearly the "Democrats would win if they were only more 'moderate'" talking point took another big hit tonight. I'd like to see some Edwards/Rispone polls, so I'll leave this as a Toss-Up for now, but this night definitely didn't go the way Edwards planned.

Of course - moderate Democrats can lose in conservative Louisiana. But that doesn't mean that "bold progressive" would have done better. On the contrary: most of Democratic candidates in downballot statewide races were more liberal, then JBE. Which percentage they got? Together - between 32 and 35% in all races (numbers very similar to Black percentage in the state, meaning that voting was, probably, very polarized by race, except governor race). Democrats absolutely cratered in Acadiana and around it (even conservative-leaning candidates were beaten badly), but former conservative Democrat, running for state House this time as Republican, beat an opponent, whom he lost as Democrat, rather decisively (letter after name was different). With rare exceptions (university cities) - all non-metropolian majority white southern areas became a "scorched Earth" zone for Democratic candidates. Any candidates: socially extremely conservative Milkovich lost to Republican too. Suburbs - another matter, but in Louisiana they are still relatively conservative and not that big (and, usually,  can't outvote almost 90% Republican rural areas).

Republicans gained considerably in state legislature, Only 2 white Democratic state Senators remain (Luneau and Smith, who was unopposed), the same tendency - in House. "Black party" and "White party" essentially..

[smoltchanov]

Lol John Milkovich lost and he’s probably the most conservative legislator in the country. So much for “Dems need to stop stressing social issues and they can win”

ANY Demicrat would lose there. Simply because "D" letter is almost as toxic there as "R" - in San Francisco.

[smoltchanov]

Lol John Milkovich lost and he’s probably the most conservative legislator in the country. So much for “Dems need to stop stressing social issues and they can win”

LMAO

JFC, didn't this guy AUTHOR the draconian abortion ban?!

Yes. And still - he was, probably, "insufficiently conservative" for his voters. You don't expect winning Republican to vote differently, don't you?

[smoltchanov]

WTF I love JBE now

JBE a "Liberal", lmao. That ad is so cringe and reeks of desperation.

Economic liberal - sure. But - these days "liberal" means "social liberal", which he isn't.

[smoltchanov]

Things like that happen when trends run ahead of conventional wisdom.
It's like 2010 when Arkansas Republicans didn't take the majority in the legislature because they left too many seats uncontested.

Yes and also because the Arkansas GOP didn't really have a bench to overtake the legislature and even as late as 2010 there were still entrenched legislative incumbents and many Arkansans had some local trust in Democrats.

Little did people know what would happen in the following cycles.

But anyway.. we may not be able to win Southern states federally but through suburbs we could do better with governorships.

Uh, Texas is shifting fast, Virginia is flipped, Georgia's going fast, and even NC is on the way.

Or are you telling me only Flawed-Duh!, Tennessee, and The Deep South count now?

Well, there's cosmopolitan south and classic south. Cosmopolitan south behaves more like the rest of the nation both Coalition and trend wise. Classic south sees everyone vote for D/R nationally depending on if you are a minority/white. Cosmopolitan verses classic is a county-by-county dichotomy, and no state conforms entirely to either approach. Classic south is more inflexible today than it was in the past, which is what the post implied.

Rather obvious, but some people needed explanations. Agree 101%...