Kentucky 2023 gubernatorial election megathread

[BigSkyBob]

If Bashear loses, blame will rest firmly on the squad and their more nuanced view on HAMAS.

[BigSkyBob]

The KY posters may be able to confirm this, but my impression is that this race is slipping away from Beshear at the last minute.

Cameron has been far more on message in recent days, relentlessly nationalizing the race and painting Beshear as a national Democrat on two of the most unpopular political stances in the state: his support for Joe Biden and his support for draconian COVID lockdowns.

Previously, Beshear had managed to put Cameron on the defensive on abortion, his ties to Bevin, etc. while Cameron's own attacks were comparatively weak (e.g. on trans rights), but that seems to have changed, and it’s not good for Beshear.

Might turn into another example of "incumbent wishing the election had been held one week earlier."

I doubt Cameron is able to turn the race around in one week though.

It is more accurate to state Cameron has turned the race around already. He was tracking for a blowout loss.  The only question is whether, or not, his momentum will carry him to victory, or not.

[BigSkyBob]

The KY posters may be able to confirm this, but my impression is that this race is slipping away from Beshear at the last minute.

Cameron has been far more on message in recent days, relentlessly nationalizing the race and painting Beshear as a national Democrat on two of the most unpopular political stances in the state: his support for Joe Biden and his support for draconian COVID lockdowns.

Previously, Beshear had managed to put Cameron on the defensive on abortion, his ties to Bevin, etc. while Cameron's own attacks were comparatively weak (e.g. on trans rights), but that seems to have changed, and it’s not good for Beshear.

Might turn into another example of "incumbent wishing the election had been held one week earlier."

I doubt Cameron is able to turn the race around in one week though.

It is more accurate to state Cameron has turned the race around already. He was tracking for a blowout loss.  The only question is whether, or not, his momentum will carry him to victory, or not.

Something in me doubts that it was ever really gonna be anything but close.

This.  In a state that strongly favors one party, it's normal for there to be movement toward that party late in an election. 

Both of these things can be true: Beshear is still favored, but Cameron has closed the gap.

And, also, both of these things can be true; the poll showing Cameron ahead, including leaners, can be an accurate snapshot of the race as it stood when the poll was taken, as opposed to an outlier, and, Cameron has such momentum that he is the favorite.

[BigSkyBob]

The KY posters may be able to confirm this, but my impression is that this race is slipping away from Beshear at the last minute.

Cameron has been far more on message in recent days, relentlessly nationalizing the race and painting Beshear as a national Democrat on two of the most unpopular political stances in the state: his support for Joe Biden and his support for draconian COVID lockdowns.

Previously, Beshear had managed to put Cameron on the defensive on abortion, his ties to Bevin, etc. while Cameron's own attacks were comparatively weak (e.g. on trans rights), but that seems to have changed, and it’s not good for Beshear.

Might turn into another example of "incumbent wishing the election had been held one week earlier."

I doubt Cameron is able to turn the race around in one week though.

It is more accurate to state Cameron has turned the race around already. He was tracking for a blowout loss.  The only question is whether, or not, his momentum will carry him to victory, or not.

Something in me doubts that it was ever really gonna be anything but close.

This.  In a state that strongly favors one party, it's normal for there to be movement toward that party late in an election. 

Both of these things can be true: Beshear is still favored, but Cameron has closed the gap.

And, also, both of these things can be true; the poll showing Cameron ahead, including leaners, can be an accurate snapshot of the race as it stood when the poll was taken, as opposed to an outlier, and, Cameron has such momentum that he is the favorite.

Beshear is very much still the favorite.

This presumes the poll is an outlier. If it isn't, Cameron is the favorite. Furthermore, the poll has almost certainly changed the race. Demoralized Republicans aren't going to be demoralized anymore. This should help Cameron's turnout. This is especially true after Donald Trump's enthusiastic endorsement. I don't know if the poll is an outlier, or not. Do you?

[BigSkyBob]

The KY posters may be able to confirm this, but my impression is that this race is slipping away from Beshear at the last minute.

Cameron has been far more on message in recent days, relentlessly nationalizing the race and painting Beshear as a national Democrat on two of the most unpopular political stances in the state: his support for Joe Biden and his support for draconian COVID lockdowns.

Previously, Beshear had managed to put Cameron on the defensive on abortion, his ties to Bevin, etc. while Cameron's own attacks were comparatively weak (e.g. on trans rights), but that seems to have changed, and it’s not good for Beshear.

Might turn into another example of "incumbent wishing the election had been held one week earlier."

I doubt Cameron is able to turn the race around in one week though.

It is more accurate to state Cameron has turned the race around already. He was tracking for a blowout loss.  The only question is whether, or not, his momentum will carry him to victory, or not.

Something in me doubts that it was ever really gonna be anything but close.

This.  In a state that strongly favors one party, it's normal for there to be movement toward that party late in an election. 

Both of these things can be true: Beshear is still favored, but Cameron has closed the gap.

And, also, both of these things can be true; the poll showing Cameron ahead, including leaners, can be an accurate snapshot of the race as it stood when the poll was taken, as opposed to an outlier, and, Cameron has such momentum that he is the favorite.

Beshear is very much still the favorite.

This presumes the poll is an outlier. If it isn't, Cameron is the favorite. Furthermore, the poll has almost certainly changed the race. Demoralized Republicans aren't going to be demoralized anymore. This should help Cameron's turnout. This is especially true after Donald Trump's enthusiastic endorsement. I don't know if the poll is an outlier, or not. Do you?

The poll looks pretty decent and properly weighed

If the poll is accurate, the history of such momentum is that it builds rather than suddenly stalls and reverses. If so, Cameron is quite the favorite.

[BigSkyBob]

Cameron might well win this, but some of you are indulging in the long-held Atlas tradition of placing way too much importance on a single poll.

I don't know for sure if the poll is accurate, an outlier, or overly Bashear-friendly. That said, it is equally true that some folks here are engaging in another Atlas tradition of putting hopiem over the data. That poll, for better or worse, is the current data set.

[BigSkyBob]

The KY posters may be able to confirm this, but my impression is that this race is slipping away from Beshear at the last minute.

Cameron has been far more on message in recent days, relentlessly nationalizing the race and painting Beshear as a national Democrat on two of the most unpopular political stances in the state: his support for Joe Biden and his support for draconian COVID lockdowns.

Previously, Beshear had managed to put Cameron on the defensive on abortion, his ties to Bevin, etc. while Cameron's own attacks were comparatively weak (e.g. on trans rights), but that seems to have changed, and it’s not good for Beshear.

Might turn into another example of "incumbent wishing the election had been held one week earlier."

I doubt Cameron is able to turn the race around in one week though.

It is more accurate to state Cameron has turned the race around already. He was tracking for a blowout loss.  The only question is whether, or not, his momentum will carry him to victory, or not.

Something in me doubts that it was ever really gonna be anything but close.

This.  In a state that strongly favors one party, it's normal for there to be movement toward that party late in an election. 

Both of these things can be true: Beshear is still favored, but Cameron has closed the gap.

And, also, both of these things can be true; the poll showing Cameron ahead, including leaners, can be an accurate snapshot of the race as it stood when the poll was taken, as opposed to an outlier, and, Cameron has such momentum that he is the favorite.

Beshear is very much still the favorite.

This presumes the poll is an outlier. If it isn't, Cameron is the favorite. Furthermore, the poll has almost certainly changed the race. Demoralized Republicans aren't going to be demoralized anymore. This should help Cameron's turnout. This is especially true after Donald Trump's enthusiastic endorsement. I don't know if the poll is an outlier, or not. Do you?

The poll looks pretty decent and properly weighed

The polls is by a notoriously bad pollster whose final polls of 2022 overestimated Republicans across the board.

FiveThirtyEight rates Emerson A- with a slight Democratic bias.

[BigSkyBob]

The KY posters may be able to confirm this, but my impression is that this race is slipping away from Beshear at the last minute.

Cameron has been far more on message in recent days, relentlessly nationalizing the race and painting Beshear as a national Democrat on two of the most unpopular political stances in the state: his support for Joe Biden and his support for draconian COVID lockdowns.

Previously, Beshear had managed to put Cameron on the defensive on abortion, his ties to Bevin, etc. while Cameron's own attacks were comparatively weak (e.g. on trans rights), but that seems to have changed, and it’s not good for Beshear.

Might turn into another example of "incumbent wishing the election had been held one week earlier."

I doubt Cameron is able to turn the race around in one week though.

It is more accurate to state Cameron has turned the race around already. He was tracking for a blowout loss.  The only question is whether, or not, his momentum will carry him to victory, or not.

Something in me doubts that it was ever really gonna be anything but close.

This.  In a state that strongly favors one party, it's normal for there to be movement toward that party late in an election. 

Both of these things can be true: Beshear is still favored, but Cameron has closed the gap.

And, also, both of these things can be true; the poll showing Cameron ahead, including leaners, can be an accurate snapshot of the race as it stood when the poll was taken, as opposed to an outlier, and, Cameron has such momentum that he is the favorite.

Beshear is very much still the favorite.

This presumes the poll is an outlier. If it isn't, Cameron is the favorite. Furthermore, the poll has almost certainly changed the race. Demoralized Republicans aren't going to be demoralized anymore. This should help Cameron's turnout. This is especially true after Donald Trump's enthusiastic endorsement. I don't know if the poll is an outlier, or not. Do you?

The poll looks pretty decent and properly weighed

The polls is by a notoriously bad pollster whose final polls of 2022 overestimated Republicans across the board.

FiveThirtyEight rates Emerson A- with a slight Democratic bias.

Then why would they suddenly be more accurate in 2023 than in 2022?

Because the herd of pollsters all overrated Republicans in 2022.

[BigSkyBob]

Cameron might well win this, but some of you are indulging in the long-held Atlas tradition of placing way too much importance on a single poll.

I don't know for sure if the poll is accurate, an outlier, or overly Bashear-friendly. That said, it is equally true that some folks here are engaging in another Atlas tradition of putting hopiem over the data. That poll, for better or worse, is the current data set.

No, it is one element of the current data set.  As it's the most recent poll, it's indeed fair to place more weight on it than older polls, but it does not invalidate them.  Put it this way: if another poll should come out with later survey dates that shows (for example) Beshear+5, would that then become the current data set and invalidate the Emerson poll?

Well, if a subsequent poll is evidence that this poll is an outlier, then, the outlier assumption would be buttressed. If a subsequent poll shows Cameron ahead five, the outlier assumption would tend to be disproven. What's your point?

[BigSkyBob]

To my surprise, I believe Cameron will pull this out.

Biden is unpopular.  Kentucky is still a coal state.  Kentucky is a socially conservative state, and it is generally considered Likely Republican in every race.  Beshear really can't claim to be a moderate, and you can't show me an area in which he's effectively dissented from the national Democratic line.

Cameron ty 3-4 points is my prediction in a race which will have become surprisingly nationalized

The race is a referendum on Beshear, not Biden. Beshear has very strong approval ratings. This is like saying Trump’s unpopularity will cost Larry Hogan and Charlie Baker re-election. Also, we’ve seen John Bel Edwards and Laura Kelly defy the lean of their states in their re-election bids.

Kentucky is not really that socially conservative, as the referendum to ban abortion failed there.

Next Tuesday is an election for Kentucky governor. In the privacy of the voting booth each individual can vote for whatever candidate they choose for whatever reason they choose, or for no reason at all. If Cameron asks people to vote for him as a referendum on Biden, and, they do vote for that reason then you are simply wrong.

[BigSkyBob]

To my surprise, I believe Cameron will pull this out.

Biden is unpopular.  Kentucky is still a coal state.  Kentucky is a socially conservative state, and it is generally considered Likely Republican in every race.  Beshear really can't claim to be a moderate, and you can't show me an area in which he's effectively dissented from the national Democratic line.

Cameron ty 3-4 points is my prediction in a race which will have become surprisingly nationalized

The race is a referendum on Beshear, not Biden. Beshear has very strong approval ratings. This is like saying Trump’s unpopularity will cost Larry Hogan and Charlie Baker re-election. Also, we’ve seen John Bel Edwards and Laura Kelly defy the lean of their states in their re-election bids.

Kentucky is not really that socially conservative, as the referendum to ban abortion failed there.

Next Tuesday is an election for Kentucky governor. In the privacy of the voting booth each individual can vote for whatever candidate they choose for whatever reason they choose, or for no reason at all. If Cameron asks people to vote for him as a referendum on Biden, and, they do vote for that reason then you are simply wrong.

So it’s a referendum on Biden for some people and one on Beshear for others.

Beshear should win but if he doesn't you might be able to credit the clowns in DC today. And unlike BLM (which had decent public support in polls), this will have almost done.

the protesters were literally calling for a ceasefire, which has 66% approval in the u.s., including majority support among both independents and republicans. and if you seriously think that the deciding factor in kentuckians' minds while they are voting for governor is the fact that a bunch of people waved a palestinian flag in washington dc then i am begging you to please touch some grass.

This an example of a nuanced view towards HAMAS. Bashear has a nuanced view of Biden, who in turn has a nuanced view of the squad, who in turn have a nuanced view of HAMAS. Waving the Palestinian flag places those asserting nuance in bad position. Many voters, including many Kentuckians, don't. Zionism is next to Godliness for many sects of Christianity. Bashear could have declared himself a "Kentucky Democrat" and disassociated himself with the national party, but, he chose nuance. Now, he is stuck.

Daniel Cameron ought to have paid you to post the above, except he didn't have to pay you.

[BigSkyBob]

Data for progress has it at Beshear +2. I get that a lead is a lead but that seems pretty narrow for a Dem tilting poll firm.
Also, Trump only has a +9% favorabilty according to them? Lmao.

DfP overestimated Republicans in 2022.

Also has Beshear’s approval rating at only +7.

That is completely consistent with all the other data. The data shows the race is very narrow. If the race is that close, one of the logical extensions would be either Cameron's approval has risen sharply, Bashear's approval has dropped significantly, or a combination of both. Bashear has taken a nuanced stance towards Biden, who in turn has taken a nuanced view of the squad, who have in turn taken a nuanced view of HAMAS. If that isn't bad enough, the former leader of the Democratic party, Barack Obama has just announced a new stance that posits a somewhat equivalence of victimization between the two sides.

[BigSkyBob]

I think turnout is going to be very low.

Really? I think the opposite.

I also think that if Andy loses, it will be in part because he failed to do enough to tie Cameron to the hated, 75% unfavorably rated Mitch McConnell. He should have emphasized their close ties and hinted that Cameron only views the governorship as a stepping stone to the Senate. If he hired me, that would have been the primary theme of this campaign. In the last few days/weeks especially, I worry because Cameron has gone full on blitzkrieg with advertisements painting Beshear as soft on crime, out of step with KY cultural values, and pro-Biden/anti-Trump. While Beshear's best response is "Hey, you know me and like me don't you?" and "Here's some doctors who don't like Cameron's healthcare plan." It just feels like he's bringing a knife to a gunfight, and like the Republicans have dumped a ton of money at the last minute into this race while the Democrats have failed to respond.

This is why I will sadly not be surprised by a loss tomorrow.

What polls have shown consistently over the past year is that almost without-exception Andy has locked up half of Kentucky voters. By galvanizing the other half of the electorate with petty personal attacks, he would not only supercharge his opposition but also probably alienate his own supporters who appreciate his uncontroversial good guy image.

The polls most certainly have not shown "Andy has locked up half of Kentucky voters." No poll has shown Andy Bashear to have the "certain support" of 50% of Kentuckians. Historically, over 50% well before the election was a good score; less than 50% a couple of week before the election was a lousy result; and less than 50% just before election day with few undecides was a mediocre score. The race has changed. We have witness Bashear slip from an almost commanding position to a mediocre one. He might pull it off. Then again, he might lose.

[BigSkyBob]

I think turnout is going to be very low.

Really? I think the opposite.

I also think that if Andy loses, it will be in part because he failed to do enough to tie Cameron to the hated, 75% unfavorably rated Mitch McConnell. He should have emphasized their close ties and hinted that Cameron only views the governorship as a stepping stone to the Senate. If he hired me, that would have been the primary theme of this campaign. In the last few days/weeks especially, I worry because Cameron has gone full on blitzkrieg with advertisements painting Beshear as soft on crime, out of step with KY cultural values, and pro-Biden/anti-Trump. While Beshear's best response is "Hey, you know me and like me don't you?" and "Here's some doctors who don't like Cameron's healthcare plan." It just feels like he's bringing a knife to a gunfight, and like the Republicans have dumped a ton of money at the last minute into this race while the Democrats have failed to respond.

This is why I will sadly not be surprised by a loss tomorrow.

What polls have shown consistently over the past year is that almost without-exception Andy has locked up half of Kentucky voters. By galvanizing the other half of the electorate with petty personal attacks, he would not only supercharge his opposition but also probably alienate his own supporters who appreciate his uncontroversial good guy image.

The polls most certainly have not shown "Andy has locked up half of Kentucky voters." No poll has shown Andy Bashear to have the "certain support" of 50% of Kentuckians. Historically, over 50% well before the election was a good score; less than 50% a couple of week before the election was a lousy result; and less than 50% just before election day with few undecides was a mediocre score. The race has changed. We have witness Bashear slip from an almost commanding position to a mediocre one. He might pull it off. Then again, he might lose.

The D internal had like 12% undecided? That makes no sense right before Election Day does it

It makes no sense whatsoever. It suggests to me selective "pushing" of the undecided vote probably those the pollster think are more apt to choose the candidate commissioning the poll.

[BigSkyBob]

I get that partisanship is strong since its KY, but it's still weird to me that something happened here that we saw last year too -- this invisible "momentum" story that apparently every GOP candidate seems to get towards the end, when in fact, at least recently, most of the time it's completely not tied to reality and simply just made up.

Again, this is KY, and not PA, or AZ, or wherever. But still, Cameron has objectively done nothing differently in the last week or two that he's been doing the whole campaign, so any type of momentum outside of simply partisanship makes no sense to me.

HAMAS.

[BigSkyBob]

If Beshear ends up winning by a substantial margin tonight (>5 pts) what will be the explanation from the doomers?  The Bradley effect?  LOL

Wouldn't it the same explanation if Cameron won by 4 or more points: the polls were incorrect?

[BigSkyBob]

Apparently E day voting in Kentucky is “off the charts” according to predicit peoples. Can someone confirm or deny

That might be true, or it could be someone trying to talk up their futures position.