Sweden 2006

[Gustaf]

One month to go now and a new poll came out today by TEMO, showing the Social Democrats (SAP) losing 2% and the Conservatives (M) gaining a similar amount:

SAP: 34.8%
M:     28.6%
FP:    10.2%
MP:    5.8%
C:      5.7%
KD:    5.6%
V:      4.7%

Red-Green Bloc (S+V+MP): 45.2%
Blue Bloc (M+FP+C+KD):     50.1%

A Sifo poll a week or so back confirms this result. Time might actually be running out for the Social Democrats.

[Gustaf]

How long have the Social Democrats been in the government in Sweden ?

Since 1994 IIRC.

1920, 1921 - 1923, 1924 - 1926, 1932 - 1936 june, 1936 september -1976, 1982 - 1991, 1994 -

Since 1920 SAP has only been out of government in 17 years!

Well then I believe its high time that Sweden became more competitive.

Traditionally it does for a while after a long period of Social Democrat rule...  the new coalition is then traditionally derailed by various events (not all their fault) and is thrown out at the next election.

Traditionally...it's happened twice.

This really ought to be it. Today's poll shows the Left below the 4%-threshold required for representation. If that happens the SAP is toast. I don't think it will though. Several polls indicate the Centre-Right gaining now, with leads as large as 7%.

[Gustaf]

I think the deciding point of the election was when the leader of the opposition, Conservative party leader Fredrik Reinfeldt, declared that he would top every promise of extra money made by the social democrats. This rendered the traditional SAP election strategy of bombarding key voter groups with promises of extra benefits useless. As a result, they're not really promising anything.

[Gustaf]

Who do you vote for Gustaf? Moderaterna or Liberal People's Party or something else?

I haven't actually voted in a general election yet, but I could probably vote for any of the Centre-Right parties (and actually even the Greens, though not in this election). In this particular election I'm gonna vote for Junilistan, for both personal and political reasons.

If anyone is interested I could do a brief summary of the major parties, because they're not all what you would think them to be (especially the People's Party... )

[Gustaf]

Who do you vote for Gustaf? Moderaterna or Liberal People's Party or something else?

I haven't actually voted in a general election yet, but I could probably vote for any of the Centre-Right parties (and actually even the Greens, though not in this election). In this particular election I'm gonna vote for Junilistan, for both personal and political reasons.

If anyone is interested I could do a brief summary of the major parties, because they're not all what you would think them to be (especially the People's Party... )

Go ahead. I'm always interested in foreign political parties. Be my guest.

Ok.

SAP - Socialdemokratiska Arbetarpartiet (Social Democratic Worker's Party), 2002 Election result 39.9%, current polling about 35%. The oldest party in Sweden (120 years or so). It is a typical centre-left reformed socialist party. In Sweden though the link between the blue-collar trade unions and the SAP is very, very strong (as in the Chairman of LO, the Swedish AFL-CIO, is a member of the SAP Executive Committee). Since they're so big they're a major presence pretty much everywhere but their traditional strongholds lie in the Northern rural areas where there are many old mining communities and such. In order to remain competitive they have been forced to break into the middle class, but the core of the party remains blue-collars workers and the large number of public sector employees. SAP also gets most of the immigrant vote. They have shrunk from their traditional level of about 45% down to 35-40% in the last decade.

M - Moderata Samlingspartiet (Moderate Coalition Party), 2002 election result 15.3%, currently polling about 27%. The traditional conservative party, Sweden's second oldest. Suffered a major melt-down in the last election due to proposing unfinanced tax-cuts and the filming of party spokesmen making racist remarks, but has since recovered enormously through moving towards the centre. Has traditionally polled 20-25% of the vote. They still rely mostly on the traditional establishement: big business, aristocracy, retired colonels, and the likes, but combined with the modern yuppies. Regionally their base lies in the suburbs around Stockholm, Gothenburg and in Skåne in the South.

FP - Folkpartiet Liberalerna (The People's Party the Liberals), 2002 election result 13.3%, currently polling about 10%. The traditional liberal party, though also including originally the evangelicals (don't ask me why). Also the party for Jews. Because of that the party retains a very strong loyalty towards Israel and is also very pro-American. On social issues they're generally very liberal and on the economy they support free markets but combined with a generous welfare state (basically similar to the American Democrats). After a disastrous result in 1998 they campaigned for tougher immigration laws, more discipline in schools and allowing the police to bug suspects, all completely contrary to their tradition. This propelled them from smallest major party to the 3rd biggest. Their traditional base is teachers and the educated middle class. Regionally they're mostly strong in urban and suburban areas. 

V - Vänsterpartiet (Left Party), 2002 result 8.3%, currently polling about 4-5%. Used to be known as Sweden's Communist Party and was directed by the Soviet Union untill the late 60s when it changed its name. It dropped Communism from its name in the 90s and modernized under feminist leader Gudrun Schyman, who brought the party into double digits. Under the leadership of declared Communist Lars Ohly, however, the party has steadily lost support after systemtically cleansing all but hard-core loyalists from their ranks. Their traditional base is radical workers and certain radical academics, such as psychologists. Today they also draw strong support from many immigrant groups. Regionally they're strongest in the far North but also does reasonably in urban areas.

KD - Kristdemokraterna (Christian Democrats), 2002 result 9.1%, currently polling at 5-6%. Was founded in the 60s and didn't enter parliament until the 90s. Was ruled by popular legendary leader Alf Svensson for 3 decades and gradually moderated from its evangelical roots, dropping resistance to abortion and homosexuality. They retain however opposition to homosexual marriage and support for family orientated solutions. Their base can be summed up as the, in Sweden fairly small, evangelical vote, which they have by now almost completely stolen from FP. Regionally this means rural areas, particularly in the Swedish Bible Belt, running through Västergötland into Småland, especially around Jönköping where they're the dominating centr-right party.

C - Centerpartiet (Centreparty), 2002 result 6.1%, currently polling about 6%. The traditional party for farmers which gradually changed its image to a more rural party with an environmentalist streak. During the 70s C was Sweden's biggest party, but after losing votes in 7 consecutive elections it faced extinction. New leader Maud Olofsson has transformed and modernized the party, shifting the traditinoally pragmatic, centrist party severely to the right attacking labour laws and proposing a flat tax rate. Is the dominating centre-right party in most rural areas, especially in the North, but has virtually no support at all in urban areas.

MP - Miljöpartiet (Greens), 2002 result 4.7%, currently polling 5-6%. The newest of the major parties, MP was founded in 1981 and entered parliament in 1988. Has never recieved more than 5.5% in a general parliamentary election and was knocked out in 1994, failing the 4% threshold. It's your basic environmentalist party, which has gained a lot of influence because they have held the deciding vote in parliament since 1998. They have also modernized their image becoming more pragmatic and acting very tough in negotionations, where they have forced the SAP to loosen immigration laws, labour market regulations and up-hold vouchers. Their support comes mostly from young urban voters, though regionally their support is essentially the same everywhere.

[Gustaf]

I have a question :

How is the Forsmark reactor incident affecting the campaign? Does it improve the chances of the Green Party?

It isn't really a big deal, I think. Nuclear power isn't a big political issue anymore for most people. TO the extent that it is, there is a stable and very large majority for retaining nuclear power (depending on phrasing it is often as high as 70%). The Forsmark reactor incident didn't do much to change that, I think. The Greens are doing very well without that though, due to the ineptness of the other leftist parties.

What's the SAP's stance on nuclear energy?

I think I speak for Swedes when I say that I would very much like to know that myself... They were very much in favour of nuclear power until the Harrisburg accident. After that they favoured a referendum on the issue, which was held in 1980. The SAP's alternative won the referendum and that alternative is what they support today. Unfortunately, no one ever understood what their alternative meant exactly.

[Gustaf]

So, what will be the impact of the computer-spying scandal involving the Liberal People's Party I heard yesterday about?

http://www.thelocal.se/article.php?ID=4797&date=20060905

Hard to tell so far, no post-scandal polls that I have heard of. But it will definitely damage the FP severely, but it isn't certain that it will help the SAP (dismayed FP voters might simply go to other opposition parties). It's getting some "politicians are so crooked"-spin which might lower turn-out and thus harm the SAP.

[Gustaf]

Polls are now showing a very, very close race. M has receded to mid 20s, the SAP seems stuck in mid 30s. After the FP-scandal, all other parties seem stuck at about 6-8%.

[Gustaf]

What are the latest coalition polls ? The Left and Right Coalition ?

The Right is ahead by about half a point. It's very, very close...

[Gustaf]

This site shows the latest polls. You can choose a time frame, whether to show the blocs or the individual parties, what institute or an average of all of them.

http://www.svd.se/dynamiskt/inrikes/did_13606415.asp

[Gustaf]

In the latest SIFO poll the Centre Party is actually 3rd biggest, passing the Liberals by a few tenths of a percentage. Well within MoE of course, but still interesting. Persson also stated that he wanted to cooperate with the centrist parties rather than with MP and V, but the formers' leaders rejected that notion.

[Gustaf]

I would prefer the Centre party to get second seat in Gotland, but that is unlikely.

Unlikely yes, but not impossible. It would require a swing of about 3% (giving the SAP 37% and the Centre party 18%). The former is very likely to occur, and the latter is not out of the question. The Centre party appears to be headed for a national gain of about 1%, but that will be almost exclusively in rural areas, I think. It might well be as high as 3% in many places.

[Gustaf]

Today's daily SIFO-poll shows the Red-Green bloc taking a narrow lead. Other polls contradict this though. SIFO is the best pollster in Sweden, but they're publishing daily polls now, so some fluctuation is bound to occur.

[Gustaf]

TV4 uses Demoskop which isn't very good. Temo is the second best in teh country, their latest poll has the Blue coalition at 51%, the Red-Green at 44%.

[Gustaf]

Right: 178 Seats
Left: 171 Seats

Is a majority that small managable in Sweden? Serious question addressed to literally anyone that might know; it certainly wouldn't be here.

Oh yes, it is easily managable. There are no personal mandates here, so no one goes against the party line, ever. Uprisings of the sort you have in England never occur. After the 1979 election the centre-right ruled with 175 v 174.

This is a great day for Swedish democracy, finally having a change of power. Latest distribution of seats:

S: 130 (144)
V: 22 (30)
MP: 19 (17)
Total: 171 (191)
 
M: 97 (55)
C: 29 (22)
FP: 28 (48)
KD: 24 (33)
TOtal: 179 (158)

Oh, and in GOtland M took the second seat. I'm sorry Aethelberth.

[Gustaf]

I'm just going to check who has the last mandates to see what the changes are of any significant change

Here are the divisors:

M:   96,4202
C:   29,3183
FP:  27,7544
KD: 24,4844
S: 130,3889
V:   21,5756
MP: 19,0583

This means that it is likely that KD might loose a mandate to S in the fine count, but it is even more likely that it is M that gains that last mandate

If it's really close the over-seas vote usually tilts to M. Regionally I haven't seen any major surprises so far. It's all as I expected.

[Gustaf]

To clarify: the final results from the election night count is over and can be seen here: http://www.val.se/val/val2006/valnatt/R/rike/roster.html

However, over-seas ballots as well as those ballot cast in the "wrong" booths on election day (basically mail-vote) is being included now. This will lead to the actual final result and the count will also show exact results for minor parties as well as the result of the personal votes for individual candidates (which candidates get the seats the parties have recieved). This process is being monitored here: http://www.val.se/val/val2006/slutlig/R/rike/roster.html

The Centre Party did indeed increase mostly in urban and suburban areas this time (as opposed to 2002 when they gained only in rural areas). Becoming the 3rd biggest party and establishing the foundations of a national party are major improvements for them.

I would also like to mention that S recieved less than 20% of the vote in Nacka, much to my enjoyment. M will now be able to rule Nacka without having to rely on FP.

In Sundbyberg, the most denesely populated municipality in Sweden, the centre-right won the majority for the first time in Swedish political history.

On a sadder note, xenophobic SD (Sweden-Democrats) did their best result ever, recieving 22% of the vote in Landskrona and about 2% nationally.

[Gustaf]

On a sadder note, xenophobic SD (Sweden-Democrats) did their best result ever, recieving 22% of the vote in Landskrona and about 2% nationally.

  Does that mean that the SD will be in Parliament (having broken the 12% threshold in Landskrona or is Landskrona not one of the election districts but something else?

the 12 % was in the municipal election. In general SD got a good regional election, but my guess is that the rather high tresshold is moving quite some "Don't want to waste"-votes from parties like Feministic Initiative, June List and Sweden Democrats, thus giving SD a worser national result

They didn't really get close to breaking a regional threshold, I don't think. However, they're quite likely to manage it the next time (or, for that matter, the national one). And yes, generally all minor parties suffered from the extreme attention the media gave to the struggle for power between the two blocs.

And lol @ M. Good luck with your rule.

[Gustaf]

Would someone who knows Swedish care to tell me what the Norrbottens Sjukvårdsparti is and of what significance is it that they got 15.5% of the vote in Norrbottens (down from 23.2% in 2002).  From the name, I assume they are some local issue party, but what issue?

Sounds like Security Party, but I don´t know any Swedish, so lets wait

I guess the person who knows Swedish would be me.

Sjukvård means health care. Sjukvårdspartiet is the "Health Care party" and their basic focus is to retain local hospitals that the SAP has been shutting down in local areas. They're quite populist and helped over-throw the SAP in many traditional rural strongholds. They also ran for the Riksdag in this general election but failed miserably. Basically, I think they lost votes because like many populist parties they didn't deliver what people had expected of them.

They were also hurt by a general pro-SAP trend in the rural north. It is actually quite interesting to note, the SAP in fact gained votes in the rural north, but lost the election due to their heavy losses and urban and suburban areas, in particular the latter and in particular around Stockholm.

[Gustaf]

The final count, btw, is indicating that the Sweden Democrats did a lot better than the exit polls indicated. It seems like they recieved almost 3% of the vote, which puts them in an excellent position for the 2010 elections.

[Gustaf]

They were also hurt by a general pro-SAP trend in the rural north. It is actually quite interesting to note, the SAP in fact gained votes in the rural north, but lost the election due to their heavy losses and urban and suburban areas, in particular the latter and in particular around Stockholm.

Yeah, I noticed that as well. Any reason for the growth in polarisation?

Honestly, I'm not sure, election analysis (especially geographic ones) are not a strong side of Swedish journalists, scientists, etc. I haven't seen anyone refer to this.

If I'm to wager a guess, then maybe it has to do with local trends. The SAP over-performed in the Stockholm area (and urban areas in general) in 2002 and there was the traditional anti-incumbency wave occurring there. Stockholm for instance hsa changed hands 6 elections in a row. Many of the suburbs have similar records. In Norrland, the SAP lost a LOT of ground in 1998, when core SAP voters abandoned them, mostly for V. It seems like they recovered, back to traditional strength. Another factor could be the return of C as a national party, they gained seats in the urban assemblies for the first time in a decade.

So, to sum up, the election was actually reverting to traditional patterns, but with a general swing to the right. In fact, the local numbers are about what I would expect given the national numbers.

EDIT: I should also mention that while M aimed for the middle-ground, the SAP went LEFTWARDS trying to rally the base. So that might help explain while M gained in a lot of historical swing areas while the SAP gained in their traditional strongholds.

[Gustaf]

Didn't check at the municipality level, but at the constituency level Norrbotten was the only place SD gained. And that seems to be due to a collapse in the "other" vote - probably the collapse of that party mentioned a couple of posts ago by Ernest? (2002, Norrbotten had the highest other vote of all, 10.0%. Now, it's below the national average at 5.6%, while the other vote increased everywhere else.)

You mean SAP when you say SD right?
In 2002 Norrbottenspartiet was formed, trying to get in regionally and came fairly close to succeeding. This time there was no such effort and hence the SAP gained. Outside of Norrbotten all the other parties running compiled a lot of votes together.

What about voting by age? Who made gains, if any in the youth vote?

The youth vote split evenly, 47-46 to the left I think. The SAP did badly as usual, but even worse than usual I think. The Greens gained and V lost quite a bit. M was the big winner, they became the biggest party among youths. KD did badly as usual, FP did pretty badly which is a bit unusual, while C improved considerably.

[Gustaf]

Didn't check at the municipality level, but at the constituency level Norrbotten was the only place SD gained. And that seems to be due to a collapse in the "other" vote - probably the collapse of that party mentioned a couple of posts ago by Ernest? (2002, Norrbotten had the highest other vote of all, 10.0%. Now, it's below the national average at 5.6%, while the other vote increased everywhere else.)

You mean SAP when you say SD right?

Eh. SD was short for Social Democrats.

Since it's the commonly used acronym for Sverigedemokraterna, it can lead to fatal misunderstandings.

[Gustaf]

To give a brief party-by-party analysis:

SAP: They actually seemed to have made a lot of gains, primarily in their traditional rural strongholds, and especially in places where they were ousted in any of the previous two elections. In many places in Norrbotten for instance unholy alliances often led by V or local parties dethroned the SAP, but were now fought back. And in the Värmland region Sjukvårdspartiet helped the Blue Bloc to power in 2002, but was now cut back severely, with the SAP gaining. Part of the explanation is of course the abysmal result for V, which lost votes everywhere.

Of course all of this was off-set by heavy losses in urban and suburban areas and also in most of the rural South. And interesting fact is that SAP seems to have performed better on the local and regional level than on the national level, which is unusual.

M: Basically gained everywhere. Seems to have done better on the national level than on the local level. Not much to comment on really.

FP: Lost votes almost everywhere. Seems to be a few local areas where they gained but, not many. Their weak regional bases in many places were severely damaged and they're on their way to becoming a strictly urban/suburban party again.

C: Displayed an interesting pattern, in that they gained votes primarily in urban and suburban areas where they haven't existed for almost a decade. In Nacka they regained represenation for the first time since 1994, and the same goes for Stockholm. Encouraging for C, which might become a truly national party again. In rural strongholds however, they often lost votes rather than gained. Of course, this means that they consolidated their gains in these areas from last time around.

KD: Basically lost ground everywhere, as far as I can tell. Seems to have saved themselves in a lot of traditionally weak areas, such as Stockholm though. I guess their campaign during the final weeks was strong as usual and helped them hold on to their Stockholm seats to quite a large extent.

V: Lost votes everywhere, especially in "leftist" areas where the SAP drained them quite a lot. One of the few exceptions was Fagersta where popular V leader Stig Henriksson led an unholy alliance with the centre-right to victory in 1998. After cutting taxes every year he gained an own majority in 2002, but continued the cooperation with the centre-right. This time he increased his majority to an astounding 58%. It's sympotmatic of V that such as politician was kicked out of the party leadership committe recently; V nowadays prefer to lose voters over pragmatic politics.

MP: Gained hugely in urban areas, but didn't move much in other parts. They picked up a lot of local seats though by small margins, usually due to V losing votes, rather than them gaining much. They basically strengthened their profile as an almost exclusively urban party. In their former stronghold Kalix in Norrbotten they lost enormously (-33%).

[Gustaf]

And interesting fact is that SAP seems to have performed better on the local and regional level than on the national level, which is unusual.

So the outgoing SAP national government was more unpopular than the party itself?
Or something else?

I'm not sure...I guess that people traditionally have vented their anti-SAP feelings in local votes, rather than national ones, so their might have been a catch-up effect on the national level. Secondly, there is always a bit of a back-lash against incumbent parties in local elections and that hurt the SAP in many previous elections. This time they recovered a lot in many regions, especially Norrbotten as has been discussed above.

But, yes, there was probably an element of the SAP government being especially impopular. It should be noted though that the Stockholm branch was even worse off and did extremely badl, especially on the municipiality level. But, in many places the local SAP-leader was probably a more popular figure than Göran Persson. This is particularly noticeable in Sweden's 2nd city, Göteborg (Gothenburg) where the Blue Bloc won the vote for Riksdag by 4% but local SAP leader Göran Johansson cemented his popularity by gaining and winning comfortably. Of course, Johansson was thrown out of the party leadership after a conflict with Persson, who refused to grant him an audience...