NV Caucus Results Thread (doors close at 2 CT)

[Mehmentum]

https://twitter.com/carrigeer/status/1231266762353627136

Sounds like a good thing for Sanders. Henderson should be prime Buttigieg/"moderate" territory, at least the more white/southern parts of it.

It’s raining in all of Las Vegas ...

Yes, but it said it was coming down "hard" in Henderson. Perhaps the rain is not as heavy in the more Bernie-friendly areas. I don't know, just saying that it might be since we don't have anecdotal reports from there. Although I suppose we could look at the radar.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/nevada/weather-radar

Differential turnout due to weather doesn't actually matter for SDEs though, right?  If a precinct has lower turnout it'll still give the same number of SDEs, right?

[Mehmentum]

Is it possible that the early vote was disproportionately old, leaving caucus day mostly young?  There was that Emerson poll that had Buttigieg doing well with the early vote and Sanders crushing it on caucus day.

[Mehmentum]

Looks like turnout is gonna surge past 2016.

I should hope so, I'd hate to have less than 10k people show up on caucus day.

[Mehmentum]

Reminder as we get close to the entrance poll period, the entrance poll could be rather far off from the final results depending on whether the early vote was incorporated into it's projections.

I know I'm fighting against a title wave here, but seriously,  let's try and put some breaks to on the entrance poll hype train, since we so far have heard nothing about the early vote in regards to the entrance poll.

MSNBC (Steve Kornacki) said the entrance poll results they had so far were ONLY early vote.

CNN says it's ~50% saying they're first time caucus goers both among early voters and today's voters, implying that their entrance poll includes both.

[Mehmentum]

From CNN TV entrance poll:

age:
under 30: 18%
30-44: 20%
45-64: 35%
over 65: 27%

Basically identical to 2016.

Of course we have no idea if this includes EV or caucus day, or how much, and as always these are subject to change, so...

[Mehmentum]

It's glorious watching James Carville, Joy Reid, and Chris Matthews cry on MSNBC.

https://twitter.com/BillKristol/status/1231344333586124806

At least he has a sense of humor about it.