MA Special Election Watch Thread

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Markey seems most likely to me at this point, and probably has one of the better chances of victory if Brown runs. I'm really not convinced Brown will run for this.

Ben Downing, who's a state senator out of Pittsfield, is interested but starts at obvious disadvantages related to his current position and relative lack of exposure; the same, however, was true of Brown himself three years ago.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Rep. Stephen Lynch has reached out to key allies in the labor movement and told them unequivocally he will run for Senate if Sen. John Kerry, as expected, is tabbed as Secretary of State.

Oh good Lord.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Unsurprising, since he lives out-of-state.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Seems that way, unless somebody like Downing actually gets traction. Doubtful, but possible.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Markey would be my guess at the moment. He's widely respected in his district and among Democrats statewide, even though his general name recognition isn't great. I think Capuano is likelier than Lynch to upset. Remember that Coakley was considered the overwhelming favorite at pretty much every stage in the process until she actually lost.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Honestly, the legislature should just change the law again and save the state a whole lot of money on a statewide special election. The seat is up in 2014 anyway, there's no reason an appointment can't last until then.

It'd look awfully self-serving to change the law yet again to avoid an imminent possibility of a Republican Senator.

Why would that stop the Massachusetts General Court?

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Does Massachusetts have open or closed primaries? If it has open primaries, I could see Brown supporters, mostly Republican crossing over and voting for Lynch in the primary, both to give their guy a better shot in the general and to pick the most conservative candidate from the Democratic side.

Closed. Independents can vote in one or the other but not both.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Why would Brown run for this seat, absent stupidity, considering it would entail having to run again in 2014, possibly facing Patrick, thus running for Senate four times in five years for the possibility of one full term, when his path to the corner office is significantly easier? I'm not saying he won't--he very well might--just that it would indicate he isn't interested in the path of least resistance and doesn't particularly care about the relative possibility of long-term political success.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Oh joy.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I'm sticking with my bold prediction--that Brown sits this one out, and Weld tilts at this windmill.

I invite him, with relative seriousness, to try. Weld was a decent governor, but until very recently hadn't lived in Massachusetts for quite some time (granted, Markey has a similar problem, but Markey has always represented Massachusetts and never tried to run for governor of another state). The state has I think passed him by.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

The perception at least as far as I'm able to tell is that Brown's staying undecided for long enough that it's not really helping him.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

The SOS has announced the primary date for 4/25 and the GE for 6/30. Filing deadline in 4 weeks, so Brown has to make up his mind quickly.

Damn. I'll probably be in another country then. I suppose I'll have to file for an absentee ballot.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Yeah, no Republican other than Brown has any chance at all. It's nice that Weld's back in the state again, but he's back after at least a decade of not only absence, but radio silence on Massachusetts affairs. (The only exception of which I am aware is a novel that he wrote about the Swift River Valley tragedy, which I'm given to understand got mixed reviews.) He even tried to run for governor of another state! His time as governor is well-remembered but that doesn't necessarily mean we want him back in office now.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

How messy will this get, Bay Staters?

At this point, regardless of the result, I'm not expecting the process to be at all pretty.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Really, Deval?

Sounds like exactly the sort of person who should be appointed as an interim candidate who isn't going to seek election. Why are people upset?

3 words: Senator. Barney. Frank

That would have been nice, but he wanted it too much and too obviously and it was obvious Patrick didn't appreciate that.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

PPP has about the numbers I'd expect for Brown-Markey and Brown-Lynch at this point. I agree with RogueBeaver that this'll likely, unless something drastic changes, be a tight race throughout, with the Warren-Brown result (in either direction) being about the upper level of a gap I'd consider plausible.

The primary numbers also look legit. Lynch is going nowhere. He should stick to his district, which he represents reasonably well.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I still won't feel comfortable until he actually announces such.

A Markey-Lynch primary without the specter of Brown in the general could be a load of theatrical fun for us Massachusetts Democrats, though.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Weld is probably out of politics for good.  I'm sticking with Brown.

You may be sticking with Brown, but Brown isn't sticking with Brown.

It's going to be either Weld or somebody I've never heard of, and I think the latter is somewhat more likely. Tisei is the only other even remote possibility I can conceive of at this point.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Stephen Lynch should pull a Lieberman and run a strong independent campaign against that Cambridge nutcase.

Stephen Lynch is a union man, and Ed Markey is in fact from Malden.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Stephen Lynch should pull a Lieberman and run a strong independent campaign against that Cambridge nutcase.

Stephen Lynch is a union man, and Ed Markey is in fact from Malden.

I think he's saying he wants that so that the vote is split so a Republican wins, but maybe I'm wrong.

Hmm, that's a thought. Lieberman won, though. Eliot Cutler would have been a better (though still inane) comparison from recent New England politics, except for having been an independent all along, or at least throughout the campaign.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Ha ha ha, oh wow.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Lynch is flip-flopping on the abortion issue.

I can't say I'm particularly surprised. His views do genuinely seem to be comparatively nuanced, but he's always been terrible at communicating such.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Stephen Lynch should pull a Lieberman and run a strong independent campaign against that Cambridge nutcase.

Stephen Lynch is a union man, and Ed Markey is in fact from Malden.

I think he's saying he wants that so that the vote is split so a Republican wins, but maybe I'm wrong.

Hmm, that's a thought. Lieberman won, though. Eliot Cutler would have been a better (though still inane) comparison from recent New England politics, except for having been an independent all along, or at least throughout the campaign.

That is of course a possibility if a Republican enters the race. In a head to head matchup, as Brad Sherman just showed, a patch to victory is possible by associating your opponent with leftwingers such as Maxine Waters, Barney Frank, and Barbara Boxer. Frank of course has endorsed Markey.

I'm not sure you understand my state as well as you seem to think you do, and I know for a fact that you wouldn't like Senator Stephen Lynch as much as you seem to think you would.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Possibly five, wasn't it? Bennett, Gomez, Winslow, Bielat, and Sullivan. Unless Bennett or Gomez has dropped out over the past few days without my noticing.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Possibly five, wasn't it? Bennett, Gomez, Winslow, Bielat, and Sullivan. Unless Bennett or Gomez has dropped out over the past few days without my noticing.

Only two will wind up making the ballot, maybe three at most, if Bielat still has an organized volunteer base in place. The signature hurdle is brutal for Mass Republicans.

Oh, of course. I think something like ten per cent of the state is registered Republicans, at best.