MA Special Election Watch Thread

[RogueBeaver]

Ted Jr. isn't running.

http://www.politico.com/story/2012/12/report-ted-kennedy-jr-wont-run-85460.html?hp=f3

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Unsurprising, since he lives out-of-state.

[RogueBeaver]

So a demolition derby between Markey, Capuano and Lynch?

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Seems that way, unless somebody like Downing actually gets traction. Doubtful, but possible.

[RogueBeaver]

Who'd have an advantage in that primary? Capuano got thumped by Coakley and Lynch is too conservative for liberals, so Markey?

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Markey would be my guess at the moment. He's widely respected in his district and among Democrats statewide, even though his general name recognition isn't great. I think Capuano is likelier than Lynch to upset. Remember that Coakley was considered the overwhelming favorite at pretty much every stage in the process until she actually lost.

[RogueBeaver]

As expected, Affleck takes a pass.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/on-congress/2012/12/affleck-passes-on-senate-run-152759.html?hp=l2

The Dems will go all-out to hold this seat. The Obamas and Clintons will be $$$ and campaigning for the nominee... whoever it is.

http://www.politico.com/story/2012/12/obama-vows-help-electing-john-kerrys-successor-85439.html

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Who'd have an advantage in that primary? Capuano got thumped by Coakley and Lynch is too conservative for liberals, so Markey?

The more people that jump into the race, the better Lynch's chances. There are a lot of conservative, pro-life Democrats in Massachusetts in the Lynch mold. Not enough to win a one-on-one primary, but certainly enough to win a clusterf*** primary.

[Maxwell]

Who'd have an advantage in that primary? Capuano got thumped by Coakley and Lynch is too conservative for liberals, so Markey?

The more people that jump into the race, the better Lynch's chances. There are a lot of conservative, pro-life Democrats in Massachusetts in the Lynch mold. Not enough to win a one-on-one primary, but certainly enough to win a clusterf*** primary.

If Lynch wins, that could spell trouble for them in the general, because I think Democratic turnout would be severely depressed.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Lynch would definitely depress turnout, but I don't see him winning a Lynch vs. Markey vs. Capuano primary, he needs a bigger clown car than that.  I think Markey would beat Brown at this point, he's pretty respected among Massachusetts Democrats and he seems to really want it.  That means he is less likely to try to just cruise through like Coakley who, as has been pointed out, was only running to try and screw over Obama (and in a way she succeeded ).  I also think Capuano would beat Brown.  It would be a mistake to read very much into his primary defeat since Coakley was always the overwhelming favorite in the primary and Capuano didn't have the sort of backing he could/would get if he runs this time (especially if it is a Capuano vs. Lynch primary).  However, I think Markey would win a Capuano vs. Markey vs. Lynch primary.  Patrick would probably beat Brown as well, but he doesn't seem to want it.  

I also agree with sg0508 that it would be a mistake for Brown to run and that he'd be much better off running for Governor (and he'd have a very strong shot at winning if he ran for Governor).  Brown often came across as a bully during the 2012 campaign (his personal animosity towards Warren really came through) and he had some really bad moments (his answer about his ideal SC Justice comes to mind).  The former may well have damaged his "brand" and the later will provide plenty of ammunition in a Senate race, but both will be reasonably fresh in voters' minds.  Plus, he won't have the advantages he had in 2010 (the worst political environment in over 100 years for Democrats, catching the Dems off-gaurd, the MA Democratic Party being a complete mess, running against Coakley, etc).  Additionally, if he won he'd be the Democrats number one target in 2014.  I also wonder if there might be an anti-Brown/GOP backlash among Massachusetts voters if they feel like Rice's nomination was derailed just to give Brown another shot at staying in the Senate.  Polls may show Brown leading right now due to name recognition, but that's all (imo).  Lastly, I think that for a majority of MA voters', their animosity to the national Republican Party outweighs their positive feelings about Brown himself/Brown's likability.

[Talleyrand]

I think we're underestimating Brown's political prowess here. Let's not forget that even as the man went down to a seven point defeat in 2012, exit polls showed that sixty percent of voters still had him in their good graces. And let's not forget that this is the man who outperformed the losing presidential nominee of his presidential party by eight and a half points in the election. In 2013, Brown would face a less favorable environment for the Democratic Party, less negative coattails, and a less well-funded challenger (IIRC, Senator-elect Warren raised $39 million to unseat Brown; I think it's pretty likely that whoever Brown faces next year, if he chooses to run, will not receive that kind of money). Not to mention, this will be a quick six month campaign, not the year and a half long slog that Warren had to build up her name recognition.

I believe Lynch would all but assure a Republican victory, and I feel that a longtime liberal Congressman, like Capuano or Markey, would come across as an old hack in a campaign against Brown, in a way that the fresh-faced Warren did not. Democrats may receive an outsider for a candidate, like State Senator Downing, U.S. Attorney Ortiz, and possibly Congresswoman Niki Tsongas, but the risks for those three are very high, and Brown might actually cruise against such inexperienced candidates. However, I could envision one of those three using the tactics Brown used in 2010 against him, and pulling out a win.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I'm with Mr. X. Brown's not gonna win.

[Vosem]

I'm finding it difficult to envision any of the three Congressmen beating Brown. All are down double-digits in the polls. Brown has more money and is better-known by a majority of people. Warren had a kind of 'unique appeal' to certain voters, as a fresh-faced expert liberal outsider, that Capuano/Lynch/Markey just don't have.

That said, Brown could choose not to run and to wait and go for Governor instead. But I'm inclined to think he runs.

[RogueBeaver]

Plus he won't have the 51 tag that he had in 2012.

[Brittain33]

As someone who thinks Brown is favored to win, let me play devil's advocate.

I'm finding it difficult to envision any of the three Congressmen beating Brown. All are down double-digits in the polls.

That was one poll, and it showed how little-known the congressmen were. Brown was around 50%, which is a good place to be, but those undecideds are all Dem-leaning.

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Didn't he spend all his money in the campaign? I assume he's in debt. Meanwhile, Capuano and Markey haven't had a competitive race in at least a decade and presumably have a lot of cash with which to introduce themselves to the state.

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While she was a fresh face, she was also an academic and a woman who was very clearly not from here and was an inexperienced candidate. Those were all obstacles that held her back. She may have had a unique appeal to liberals--but Capuano has been no slouch in appealing to liberals, and neither has Markey. Warren turned out to be an ok candidate who won because she was good enough in a good environment in Massachusetts. That's not a high bar to match.

[DrScholl]

Honestly, the legislature should just change the law again and save the state a whole lot of money on a statewide special election. The seat is up in 2014 anyway, there's no reason an appointment can't last until then.

[justfollowingtheelections]

As someone who thinks Brown is favored to win, let me play devil's advocate.

I'm finding it difficult to envision any of the three Congressmen beating Brown. All are down double-digits in the polls.

That was one poll, and it showed how little-known the congressmen were. Brown was around 50%, which is a good place to be, but those undecideds are all Dem-leaning.

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Didn't he spend all his money in the campaign? I assume he's in debt. Meanwhile, Capuano and Markey haven't had a competitive race in at least a decade and presumably have a lot of cash with which to introduce themselves to the state.

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While she was a fresh face, she was also an academic and a woman who was very clearly not from here and was an inexperienced candidate. Those were all obstacles that held her back. She may have had a unique appeal to liberals--but Capuano has been no slouch in appealing to liberals, and neither has Markey. Warren turned out to be an ok candidate who won because she was good enough in a good environment in Massachusetts. That's not a high bar to match.

Massachusetts is probably one of the few places in America where being an academic is a good thing, not a bad thing.  A poll had shown that people in Massachusetts have an overwhelmingly positive opinion of college professors (as they should).

[Nichlemn]

Honestly, the legislature should just change the law again and save the state a whole lot of money on a statewide special election. The seat is up in 2014 anyway, there's no reason an appointment can't last until then.

It'd look awfully self-serving to change the law yet again to avoid an imminent possibility of a Republican Senator.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

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Didn't he spend all his money in the campaign? I assume he's in debt. Meanwhile, Capuano and Markey haven't had a competitive race in at least a decade and presumably have a lot of cash with which to introduce themselves to the state.

Though Markey and Capuano haven't had a real race ever, they only have $3M and $0.5M cash on hand respectively. That's really not much of a head start when you need at least $15M to play the game; probably $25M or more if Brown runs.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Looks like Brown is about $6 or $7M in debt.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Honestly, the legislature should just change the law again and save the state a whole lot of money on a statewide special election. The seat is up in 2014 anyway, there's no reason an appointment can't last until then.

It'd look awfully self-serving to change the law yet again to avoid an imminent possibility of a Republican Senator.

Why would that stop the Massachusetts General Court?

[morgieb]

Honestly, the legislature should just change the law again and save the state a whole lot of money on a statewide special election. The seat is up in 2014 anyway, there's no reason an appointment can't last until then.

It'd look awfully self-serving to change the law yet again to avoid an imminent possibility of a Republican Senator.

I don't think it'll have much of an impact, quite frankly. Yes it does sound cowardly, but still....

[DrScholl]

It'd look awfully self-serving to change the law yet again to avoid an imminent possibility of a Republican Senator.

I really doubt that the legislature would care about that. It wasn't a great idea to change the law to begin with, as statewide elections are very expensive.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Honestly, the legislature should just change the law again and save the state a whole lot of money on a statewide special election. The seat is up in 2014 anyway, there's no reason an appointment can't last until then.

It'd look awfully self-serving to change the law yet again to avoid an imminent possibility of a Republican Senator.

Why would that stop the Massachusetts General Court?

Though they may be self-serving partisans, Massachusetts Democrats do have shame.

[Brittain33]

Looks like Brown is about $6 or $7M in debt.

Holy crap! He may have to run for senate in that case. Renting himself out to Wall Street is lucrative and they don't care if he runs for governor.