The Al Realpolitik Institute of Sulfur Mining & Extraction

[RogueBeaver]

Developments in this most recent scandal are coming-in very rapidly.

Keep up with the latest here.

This site is well-known for its Cochran bias.

Reality is well-known for its Cochran bias.

[RogueBeaver]

Oh. Reality makes an appearance again.

[RogueBeaver]

Well, well, well. Look at who has come out of his hole to grace us with his fantastical blathering. It's good to see you are hackish as ever. Perhaps after you get thoroughly owned for yet another election cycle, you will come to realize the truth about Colorado. I'm not quite sure where you live, but it certainly isn't in reality, yet alone Colorado.

If I'm wrong, I'll be here eating crow.

Oh, you're going to eat crow? Haven't you had more than enough crow already to last a lifetime? Your whole political life has been nothing but a feast on crow. The time has come for you to get schooled by Panda Express. I'm gonna crush you like a crouton. I'm gonna fry you like a fritter. I'm gonna smoke you like a bong.

Let's take a look at all the crow you've consumed throughout the years, shall we?

On 2010:

I wouldn't be surprised if Hick takes a look at the political environment and decides not to run.  He's already the third-string QB in a race that needs a Peyton Manning to beat McInnis.  And he already has rural Democrats lobbing bombs over the Front Range at him because he looks to a lot of people too much like a carpetbagging liberal (remind of a certain Senator from Colorado?).  The fact is that Obama's approval rating in Colorado is among the lowest in the country and Hickenlooper's (and Ritter's and Bennet's and...) ties to the president will hurt him a lot.  Add to that the fact that Hickenlooper's business ties could cost him some union support (which Romanoff apparently tried picking up over the weekend) and this looks like an absolute disaster. 

He'll keep it close enough to make it interesting, but my guess is that his rather liberal ideas seep into the suburbs and beyond, his poll numbers will take a big hit and McInnis could end up winning with Ritter-esque numbers.

PPP also had Hickenlooper up by 11 points which is ridiculous.  If he's up at all--and I doubt that he is--Hick leads by a point or two.  It looks more like PPP is trying to cheerlead their candidates rather than do an accurate poll. 

That's funny--Rasmussen is the only pollster who has had any consistency in this race.  The only poll (besides, ironically, Rasmussen's February poll) showing Hickenlooper winning was the liberal PPP poll showing him up by a ridiculous 11 points. 

On the 2012 Presidential Election in Colorado:

Obama is doing far worse in Colorado than in Georgia, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Virginia.  Those numbers tell you where 2012 will be won for Team Obama.  And it won't be in Colorado.

I'm fairly confident that Obama will lose Colorado. 

PPP's poll simply over-samples Democrats.  That's fine, I suppose.  But you just have to consider that when analyzing the PPP polls out of Colorado.  And if you take a Democrat-leaning poll that has Obama up only 2 and another poll with his approval numbers at only 39% in Colorado, you have a big Obama loss in Colorado.

Colorado will end up moving more safely in Romney's direction,

people will be genuinely surprised that Colorado ends up with a PVI of R +3 or R+4 in November.

SurveyUSA is up to its usual games, I see.

You're right--this poll slanted decidedly to the left.  As I noted visa-vis the ARG poll out of Colorado yesterday, it is likely that Romney has a small but significant lead in Colorado right now. 

The Survey USA crosstabs are 34 D, 34 R, 30 I.  But the actual active voter registration is 32 D, 34 R, 31 I.  Even in 2008, it was R +1.  It won't be any less than R +3 this year, especially considering the gains in voter registration since '08 made by the GOP here.  So no matter how you slice it, Romney leads Colorado.

Actually, if you look into the crosstabs, it's not that close at all in Colorado.  If they had polled the state correctly, Romney would have a decent lead.  ARG has 34 D 32 R 34 I.  The problem?  Active registration is actually like this: 37 R, 32 D, and 31 I.  In other words, they underpolled Republicans by five points, overpolled Dems by two, and significantly overpolled unaffiliateds (who favor the president by two in this poll).

If you work out the math, I imagine that Romney would be leading by at least three or four. 

Unbelievable how people accept this stuff carte blanche without actually looking into whether the books are cooked (as they frequently are, for whatever reason, in Colorado). 

Did the Bain ads even air in Colorado? Thought those were mainly targeted in the rust belt.

We've had plenty of them here in the Denver area.  And they're probably helped Romney rather than hurt him.

I would expect Romney to crank out a win similar to President Bush's margin in 2004.

It's a D +3 sample.  That doesn't even pass the laugh test.  The National Journal story was probably legit--if you can only must a three-point lead when you oversample Democrats by six points, then you're probably in real trouble.

With PPP, you have to peel beneath the numbers to get the real story.

On the political leanings of Colorado in general:

The reality on the ground is that Colorado looks poised to emerge after Election Day, once again, as a state that leans Republican in absence of a compelling, moderate Democrat running in a bad year for the GOP.  Way too many people drank the blue Kool Aid that pundits were serving over the charred carcus of the state Republican Party.  It was so weird to see that happening considering the fact that Colorado is still a fairly conservative state, all things considered.  It's hard to declare Colorado the newest Democratic stronghold when most voters in the state gravitate to ideas that run contrary to the heart of the Democratic Party (nationally, anyway). 

Coloradans have not become more "left-wing."  In fact, if you take the last 20 years out as a case study, the opposite might be more true.

The poll's methodology is even more hackneyed than the sort of baloney that PPP usually produces.


The reality: Colorado's a conservative state.

The Colorado GOP is actually is pretty good shape here.  We'll likely maintain our 4-3 congressional split, and might even pick up CD-7.  We'll also probably keep the state house, and possibly pick up the state Senate. 

Colorado has snapped back to the right.  I don't know what that portends for the country more broadly, but I won't at all be surprised to see Romney lose by handful and still win in Colorado.  Frankly, the whole "new majority" narrative about Colorado and even Nevada has been wrong for six long years.

Did they poll the marijuana referendum?

Yes.  The Post will release those results probably sometime this weekend.  I really don't expect it to pass. 

You really only post about Colorado and when you do, you're completely wrong. Always. You're going to be wrong again when the GOP goes down in flames again. My hope is you'll finally wake up to the truth but you're one of the most delusional people here. Your predictions have been one big joke after another but it's no longer funny. Time to wake up and smell the coffee, son.

[RogueBeaver]

Nixon at least had some good domestic policies.

Yeah, I hear stagflation was great.

[RogueBeaver]

Wow, guys, I did not ask to be lambasted while I was gone to church.  You think I'm hopeless.  You all, except for J-Mann, are hopeless for pointing fingers and viciously assassinating my character.  You'd think I'd learn and stop updating.  Let me ask this:  When I cease updating would you please stop assassinating my character and my family's character?  I do not want to hear a single, solitary word more of this vicious, no-good, lying, un-manlike garbage.

Your character is sh!t. You have zero self-control, zero work ethic, zero rationality, zero responsibility and zero chance of ever changing until you address all of that. "Un-manlike" is rich, coming from you. Look at all the excuses you've made in just the past few posts: "I don't want to offend people by not eating their food", "you all are making me fat by telling me to eat healthy", "Southern food is healthy because it's what I like", and so on. You sound like are a child.

How about this, guys, you know I can't stay away from the update.  How about we just change the subject and leave me to live my life how I please?  I may lose more weight if I don't have birds chirping in my ear all the time criticizing me for every adverse and boneheaded move.

Which Updater was egging you on at the bowling alley when you decided to shove a greasy cheeseburger down your gullet? Sorry, but you don't get to publish every little detail about your life and then only talk about the ones that paint you in a positive light. You already have a whole group of people in real life who enable your "character" by saying  "Good job, Jeff!" all the time after hearing about all of your "accomplishments" after you invariably put a deceptive spin on them.

This is all part of your act. Hopefully at some point, your enabling parents will wake up, slap the hell out of you, throw all of your belongings out on the front yard, go to Granny's and do the same, toss you out and change the locks. It's becoming abundantly clear that's the only way you'll ever learn to exert any responsibility for yourself in a meaningful way.

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[RogueBeaver]

Mia Love (Uncle Tom-UT): Leave Scalise Alone!

I think we can all agree she's a race traitor now.

Calling people "race traitors" is generally beyond the pale in any context. Particularly when the accuser is a different racer on the accused. Even more so when the accused happens to not conform to certain political views.

The idea a white person can call a black person an "Uncle Tom", can decide who is "loyal" to "black people"- which is in and of itself absolutely disgusting- reeks of denying blacks political agency and to "get back in line", that they are required to behave a certain way and believe certain things, enforced by outsiders. One would think the time for such things is long past.

Whether or not white people are oppressed had nothing to do it. People's views deserve to be judged on their merits, not their degree of conformity to the prevailing thought of their group. Sawx, for all your talk about oppression and what black people ought to want you seem to underrate freedom of thought.

[RogueBeaver]

Mia Love clearly needs more lectures from the all knowing, fourteen year old white boys on the Internet!