GA-SurveyUSA: Gov. Deal (R) opens up lead
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2024, 01:11:09 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls
  GA-SurveyUSA: Gov. Deal (R) opens up lead
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: GA-SurveyUSA: Gov. Deal (R) opens up lead  (Read 1352 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: August 19, 2014, 05:26:10 AM »

48% Nathan Deal (R)
39% Jason Carter (D)
  4% Andrew Hunt (L)
  8% Undecided

...

In an election today for Governor, incumbent Republican Nathan Deal defeats Democratic challenger Jason Carter 48% to 39%. (Jason is the grandson of former President Jimmy Carter.) Libertarian Andrew Hunt gets 4% today. 8% are undecided. Deal holds 83% of the Republican base. Carter holds 82% of the Democratic base. Independents break sharply Republican. Moderates provide some but not presently enough support for Carter to catch Deal. Libertarian Hunt takes more votes from the Republican Deal than he does from the Democrat Carter.

In an election today for Lieutenant Governor, incumbent Republican Casey Cagle defeats Democratic challenger Connie Stokes, 52% to 36%. Cagle holds 90% of the Republican base.

In an election today for Secretary of State, incumbent Republican Brian Kemp defeats Democratic challenger Doreen Carter 53% to 36%. Carter trails by 9 points among women.

In an election today for Attorney General, incumbent Republican Sam Olens defeats Democratic challenger Greg Hecht, 49% to 36%. Hecht has a 5-point advantage among lower-income voters, but he is overpowered by Olens among middle-income and upper-income voters.

In an election today for State School Superintendent, Republican Richard Woods defeats Democrat Valarie Wilson 51% to 39%. Among voters who support the "Common Core" school standards, the Democrat Wilson leads 2:1. Among those who oppose Common Core, the Republican Woods leads 6:1.

...

Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,100 state of Georgia adults 08/14/14 through 08/17/14.

Of the adults, 953 were registered to vote.

Of those registered to vote, 560 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/04/14 general election.

This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (72% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (28% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their tablet, smartphone, or other portable device.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=c649d925-5e23-4406-a545-30cf95234a33
Logged
JRP1994
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,045


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: August 19, 2014, 05:53:41 AM »

It's........... not happening. Sad


Logged
Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,090
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: August 19, 2014, 06:27:13 AM »

The recent trend is worrisome, but I'll just point the following out:

Poll: 52% Male, 48% Female
2010: 55% Female, 45% Male

Poll: "Atlanta" (metro) - 34% of sample
Size of state: 45%

Poll: 35-49 = Deal 55, Carter 32 (biggest lead of any age group)
2008: 30-44 = Martin 52, Chambliss 45; Obama 56, McCain 44

Logged
Keystone Phil
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 52,611


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: August 19, 2014, 06:51:31 AM »

Oh. Reality makes an appearance again.
Logged
Badger
badger
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 40,258
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: August 20, 2014, 05:21:51 PM »

The recent trend is worrisome, but I'll just point the following out:

Poll: 52% Male, 48% Female
2010: 55% Female, 45% Male

Poll: "Atlanta" (metro) - 34% of sample
Size of state: 45%

Poll: 35-49 = Deal 55, Carter 32 (biggest lead of any age group)
2008: 30-44 = Martin 52, Chambliss 45; Obama 56, McCain 44



Even if one re-weights the poll as suggested, Carter's still in a world of hurt.
Logged
Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,090
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: August 21, 2014, 01:47:12 AM »

The recent trend is worrisome, but I'll just point the following out:

Poll: 52% Male, 48% Female
2010: 55% Female, 45% Male

Poll: "Atlanta" (metro) - 34% of sample
Size of state: 45%

Poll: 35-49 = Deal 55, Carter 32 (biggest lead of any age group)
2008: 30-44 = Martin 52, Chambliss 45; Obama 56, McCain 44



Even if one re-weights the poll as suggested, Carter's still in a world of hurt.

Unless I erred and did double-math, it's potentially a 11-point margin shift.

Age Group: 21-point swing in 25% of electorate, adjusted: 5.2 points
Region: 44-point swing in 11% of electorate, adjusted 4.8 points
Gender: 11-point swing in 7% of electorate, adjusted: 0.8 points
Logged
Free Bird
TheHawk
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,918
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.84, S: -5.48

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: August 21, 2014, 04:40:20 PM »

Oh. Reality makes an appearance again.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.036 seconds with 13 queries.