CO, Ras: Romney leads by 2

[krazen1211]

Link



Romney 47
Obama 45


Great news!

[backtored]

The ARG and Survey USA polls has Romney up too, but the Democrat-leaning samples obscured that happy reality.  The fact is that Rasmussen--despite oversampling Democrats (again!)--shows where the race is really at.

Colorado has snapped back to the right.  I don't know what that portends for the country more broadly, but I won't at all be surprised to see Romney lose by handful and still win in Colorado.  Frankly, the whole "new majority" narrative about Colorado and even Nevada has been wrong for six long years.

[Lief 🗽]

Scott should try being a little less obvious.

[tmthforu94]

Database Entry: https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2012/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=820120917016

[J. J.]

Actually, even taking into account the "house bias," at least a tie.

[MorningInAmerica]

Party ID on this:
Republican 31%  
Democrat 30%  
Other 39%

White 80%  
Black 4%  
Other 16%

Obama job approval is 48/51%
Romney favorability is 48/50%

The Governor's job rating is an incredible 65/29%

Actually, even taking into account the "house bias," at least a tie.

Rasmussen's house bias is LESS severe than PPP's, for the record. Again. http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/06/22/calculating-house-effects-of-polling-firms/

[Reds4]

Wish we could get some more polling numbers from Colorado.. seems like a state to keep a close eye on at this point.

[Sbane]

Not saying this is totally accurate, but some of the data points to Colorado possibly being more Republican than the nation.

[opebo]

Frankly, the whole "new majority" narrative about Colorado and even Nevada has been wrong for six long years.

Bit of a stretch to lump Nevada in with this. 

[LiberalJunkie]

Lol good try Scotty. I don't see Romney winning Colorado at all. But all you Conservatives can dance around about this all you want, he WONT win Ohio.

[Likely Voter]

I think CO may be the ultimate  tipping point state and will come in right around the national average. So if the Rasmussen view of the electorate is right, then Romney is ahead 2 nationwide and ahead 2 in CO. Makes sense.

The big question for CO is the youth vote. If they show up, Obama wins, otherwise he loses. And of course Gary Johnson and the pot initiative throw a couple of variables into that equation as well.

[Sbane]

Frankly, the whole "new majority" narrative about Colorado and even Nevada has been wrong for six long years.

Bit of a stretch to lump Nevada in with this.  

CO is a state that is whiter than average, has less black people than average and has more independents than average. A large swing back shouldn't surprise us. Nevada will likely trend Republican as well, but let's not forget that Obama won there by 12 points.

[Person Man]

I think CO may be the ultimate  tipping point state and will come in right around the national average. So if the Rasmussen view of the electorate is right, then Romney is ahead 2 nationwide and ahead 2 in CO. Makes sense.

The big question for CO is the youth vote. If they show up, Obama wins, otherwise he loses. And of course Gary Johnson and the pot initiative throw a couple of variables into that equation as well.

This.

[Sbane]

I think CO may be the ultimate  tipping point state and will come in right around the national average. So if the Rasmussen view of the electorate is right, then Romney is ahead 2 nationwide and ahead 2 in CO. Makes sense.

But his other state polling has been more favorable towards Obama. I think his national numbers are bullsh**t, tbh.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Colorado is a state where Obama saw his approvals drop and drop fast a couple years ago.  They don't seem to be very friendly to him out there.  I'd like to see a few more polls, but this is one to watch.  

[NVGonzalez]

Whatever helps to keep your confidence from going into oblivion I guess.

[Sbane]

Obama needs to slam Romney on his vow to increase military spending here. The wars are a big reason Colorado swung to Obama.

[pbrower2a]

The President has a 48% approval rating and he is going to lose the state? I don't fully believe it.

[cavalcade]

Two polls from a week ago (so possibly including some Obama convention bounce) had Obama +1 (SurveyUSA) and Obama +5 (Keating, D).  So pure tossup now is quite reasonable.

[SPC]

Colorado must be at least within striking distance for Romney if Rasmussen can produce a Romney lead, something he was unable to accomplish in Ohio, Virginia, or Florida.

[5280]

All I can say is this is good news.

[opebo]

Bit of a stretch to lump Nevada in with this.  

CO is a state that is whiter than average, has less black people than average and has more independents than average. A large swing back shouldn't surprise us. Nevada will likely trend Republican as well, but let's not forget that Obama won there by 12 points.

Yeah, there is I suspect a much greater potential/likely swing from D to R in CO than in NV, just because of the racial difference in the two states.

[mondale84]

Colorado must be at least within striking distance for Romney if Rasmussen can produce a Romney lead, something he was unable to accomplish in Ohio, Virginia, or Florida.

No, Rassy is making up numbers as usual. People aren't calling him out because there's been a scarcity of CO polls.

[ElectionAtlas]

New Poll: Michigan President by Marketing Resource Group on 2012-09-17

Summary: D: 48%, R: 42%, I: 0%, U: 8%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Devils30]

Dont forget Dems tend to outperform poll numbers here. I think Obama is probably up 2-5 at the moment. I'd also caution between comparing state and national polls from different organizations. If romney is up 2 here and 2 nationally it makes sense.