UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[YL]

The Tories got 66% of the vote in Tamworth in 2019. That doesn’t mean it’s safe, and it would fall on the Selby & Ainsty swing, but it’s not an easy gain.

The Election Maps tweet above suggests that it’s not clear who carried it in May, given the split wards in the Lichfield district bit. AIUI that Lichfield bit is very Tory, which is partly why the constituency as a  whole leans to them more than you might think from its name.

[YL]

Back on topic, Central Bedfordshire council have stated that Mid Beds will be on 19 October.

Odds on the Lib Dems have lengthened a bit and those on Labour and the Tories shortened, but the yellows are still favourites. I’ve no idea whether that reflects the mood on the ground.

[YL]

Tamworth: Reports that Chris Pincher has resigned written to Jeremy Hunt asking to be appointed Steward of the Manor of Northstead.

[YL]

Interesting that the Conservative candidate in Mid Bedfordshire is LDS. Is that at all common in the UK and might it affect the outcome?

There are two LDS temples in the UK, one in Surrey and one in Chorley, Lancashire, so it's not that unusual, and we have had Mormon MPs; Terry Rooney, Labour MP for Bradford North from 1990 to 2010, was the first.  I don't think it'd be a big deal unless the media pick up on some particularly controversial view related to his religion.

[YL]

I don't know how much of the Tory collapse in Hove in 2017 was down to the candidate's religious views and how much down to the fact that of all erstwhile Lab/Con marginals Hove was just about the worst fit for the modern Conservative Party, but the former did get attention at the time.

Said candidate has just been selected for Mid Sussex, which isn't, on new boundaries, as rural as it sounds; it's basically Haywards Heath and Burgess Hill and doesn't actually look that safe.

[YL]

Tamworth constituencies have an interesting history, including one of the most bizarre naming decisions for a UK constituency and a by-election with which the upcoming one will inevitably be compared.

It was a traditional Parliamentary borough under the old, pre-1832, system, and survived the Great Reform Act with somewhat enlarged boundaries, and was particularly associated with Sir Robert Peel.  But the town was much smaller than it is now, and when small boroughs were abolished in the 1885 reform it was abolished as a borough.  The town is right on the historic boundary between Warwickshire and Staffordshire, which meant that parts of it went into two separate county divisions, one in each county.  The Staffordshire division included the city of Lichfield, and so took that name, and so the name Tamworth became attached to the Warwickshire division, although it only contained part of the town and stretched way to the south beyond Solihull, including a lot of is now east Birmingham.

Between 1885 and the next review in 1918, county boundaries were changed and the Municipal Borough of Tamworth (not to be confused with the old Parliamentary Borough) was united in Staffordshire.  So in that review the formerly Warwickshire parts were also added to the Staffordshire division still called Lichfield, but somehow the Warwickshire division retained the name Tamworth in spite of not containing the actual town of that name.  (It did include some areas which are now part of the town, but they were outside it in 1918, and it did include areas which were in the Tamworth Rural District.)  You can see it on this map; it covered a very large area, including Solihull and Sutton Coldfield.  In 1945 there was a review of over-sized constituencies, and as a result it was broken up and the name "Tamworth" briefly disappeared from the constituency map.

That 1885-1945 "Tamworth" consistently voted Conservative, but although there was some overlap in the east of the town doesn't really have a lot to do with the modern constituency.  Lichfield, on the other hand, voted Labour in 1923 and 1929 before its MP joined Ramsay MacDonald's National Labour faction; when he died in 1938 it voted for Labour again in the by-election.

With the confusing Warwickshire division gone, the Staffordshire constituency which actually contained the town was renamed Lichfield & Tamworth in 1950, and this lasted until 1983.  It voted Labour in the 1950s and 1960s, but then moved towards the Tories, being a Tory gain in 1970 and only won by Labour again in October 1974.  In 1983, Lichfield was transferred to the new Mid Staffordshire constituency (scene of a famous 1990 by-election) and instead of reviving the name Tamworth the rump was renamed South East Staffordshire.

South East Staffordshire voted Tory in all three General Elections under that name, but it was close enough in 1992 that it would have been an easy gain in 1997 (the swing needed was just over 6%) had it still existed.  However it had already been gained, because its MP David Lightbown died in December 1995 and the resulting by-election was (inevitably, for a by-election in a Lab/Con marginal in 1996) a Labour landslide.  So if Labour do not win this by-election or even if they only win it narrowly, expect certain people to compare Tony Blair and Keir Starmer's by-election winning abilities...

In 1997 some more areas close to Lichfield were removed and the constituency was renamed Tamworth.  The by-election winner Brian Jenkins held it for Labour until he was beaten by Chris Pincher in 2010, since when it has swung heavily to the Tories, with their margins in 2015 and 2017 being bigger, and their margin in 2019 much bigger, than the ones they got in South East Staffordshire in 1983 and 1987.  That suggests that this is really a considerably harder gain than it was in 1996.

[YL]

The Scotsman: Sex pest MP Patrick Grady is welcome to campaign in Rutherglen and Hamilton West ahead of by-election, says SNP candidate

I get why Katy Loudon would say Sturgeon was welcome to campaign, despite her difficulties - as she did last week. She is after all, still a grandee, and uncharged. But Patrick Grady?

A Labour or Tory candidate would hardly endorse campaigning with Chris Pincher or Claudia Webbe.

And sure, she tried to hedge. But she still ended up at a straightforward yes.

I guess the difference between Grady's case and Pincher's or Webbe's is that the latter two have been disowned by their parties, whereas Grady's suspension was lifted and he is again an SNP MP. I'm not sure how well this reflects on the SNP, but in that sense he is back in the fold, so it's not that surprising that they'd be happy to have him campaign.

I understand, though, that the SNP have used Glasgow going from seven to six seats in the boundary review to squeeze him out for the next Parliament.

[YL]

What do people think the chances are of a genuine three way split in Mid Beds?

It's only likely if there is significant confusion in the area as to who the "tactical" choice to beat the Tories is. Both Labour and Lib Dems are claiming that they are, of course, but that doesn't mean very much. I have not been on the ground so can't really comment; perhaps Coldstream has been?

If the Lib Dems can't persuade people that they are the tactical choice I don't think they'll be anywhere near making it a three way split. They are still the bookies' favourites, but their odds have been lengthening.

[YL]

The Tories moved the writ for Tamworth yesterday, but it's not to be issued until Thursday, which following the 21 to 27 working days rule puts polling day on 19 October, the same as for Mid Bedfordshire.

The Tories have a three name shortlist which according to Michael Crick does not include Eddie Hughes's wife but does include another Tory MP's wife, Karen Treacy, wife of Craig Tracey, and Tom Byrne, an advisor to Andy Street (West Midlands metro mayor), who missed out to Hughes in the original selection. I haven't seen anything new on whether whoever is selected is just a stopgap for Hughes.

[YL]

14 candidates for Rutherglen & Hamilton West

Gloria Adebo (Lib Dem)
Bill Bonnar (Scottish Socialist Party)
Garry Patrick Cooke (no description) [1]
Andrew Vincent Daly (Independent) [2]
Cameron Eadie (Scottish Green)
Prince Ankit Love Emperor of India (no description) [3]
Niall Fraser (Scottish Family Party) [4]
Ewan Hoyle (Volt UK) [5]
Thomas Jordan Kerr (Con)
Katy Loudon (SNP)
Christopher Anthony Sermanni (TUSC)
Michael Shanks (Lab)
David Stark (Reform UK)
Colette Walker (Independence for Scotland Party) [6]

[1] This guy.  Platform "Alba dhan Phrìomh Lìog/Scotland for the Premier League": that Scottish football clubs should be allowed to join the Premier League.
[2] Possibly this guy?
[3] Stood for Mayor of London and in some by-elections in 2016. In Richmond Park he stood as "Maharaja Jammu and Kashmir" so he has clearly expanded his territorial claim.
[4] This party frequently stands in Scottish local by-elections. I think their platform is roughly what you'd expect from the name.
[5] Yes, we have a Volt too.
[6] This lot

[YL]

The Tories have a three name shortlist which according to Michael Crick does not include Eddie Hughes's wife but does include another Tory MP's wife, Karen Treacy, wife of Craig Tracey, and Tom Byrne, an advisor to Andy Street (West Midlands metro mayor), who missed out to Hughes in the original selection. I haven't seen anything new on whether whoever is selected is just a stopgap for Hughes.

... and they've picked the other one, Andrew Cooper, a Tamworth councillor (Mercian ward) and an engineer with Network Rail with a previous military career.

[YL]

Looks like Mid Bed will be excitingly close

Possibly, though odds aren't always the most accurate indicator of what's going on on the ground. (See Chesham & Amersham, where the Tories were overwhelming favourites with the betting markets but weren't even close to holding the seat; the markets were also "wrong" in Batley & Spen and Uxbridge & South Ruislip in the sense that the favourite did not win but those were close results and the markets did suggest a reasonable probability of the seats being held.)

As it happens since the tweet quoted above the markets have moved back in the Lib Dems' favour a little.  But I don't know whether the people putting money on them have any idea what is actually happening in Mid Bedfordshire.

[YL]

In spite of the mixed track record of such things, I'd like to see another poll of Mid Beds.

[YL]

Seen a claim on Twitter that a Rutherglen poll might be coming soon.

Link?  Searching Twitter for the words "Rutherglen" and "poll" just finds SNP supporters (and Guido) talking about the latest YouGov poll (which showed quite a swing to them) and using it to suggest that they might hold on.

[YL]

The Independent is much lower in this poll than in the Opinium one. I'm not very surprised by that, but it's the biggest change between the two polls.

FWIW I believe 29% would be the lowest winning share in a by-election in the era of universal suffrage. I suspect it'll end up a bit higher than that in the end, though.

[YL]

What's the lowest winning vote share in any seat, including general elections, since universal suffrage?

Belfast South in 2015 was won by the SDLP with only 24.5%. I’m sure someone else knows a lower figure somewhere.

That's the lowest Wikipedia's General Election records page knows about.

[YL]

Fuller figures and tables for the Survation poll: www.survation.com/mid-bedfordshire-by-election-update/

It appears that all declared candidates were prompted for.

Akinbusoye (Con) 29%
Strathern (Lab) 29%
Holland-Lindsay (Lib Dem) 22%
Holland (Reform UK) 7%
Mackey (Ind) 6%
Victor (True and Fair) 4%
Sibley (Green) 2%

[YL]

Polling accuracy aside - surely this is exactly the result Labour would want from a Mid Beds poll. "It's a dead heat, don't vote Lib Dem and let the Tories back in", is campaign gold dust.

They've basically been gifted the perfect figures for a Lib Dem leaflet bar-chart, and they don't even need to mess with the y-axis, it's ideal for them - "only Labour can beat the Tories here".

You can, however, always rely on the Lib Dems to come up with a bar chart:
https://twitter.com/timfarron/status/1703096799299326090

[YL]

It’s weird how little coverage the Scottish by election is getting- I’ve not even seen a vox pox!

I suspect that is a combination of
(a) the media think it's a foregone conclusion (though, again, Chesham & Amersham did happen)
(b) I suspect you'd have seen more coverage if you'd looked at the Herald or the Scotsman

[YL]

I actually met a Reform canvasser today, he seemed optimistic they’d be keeping their despot - not sure how likely that is but they are working it.

Tice or Farage?

[YL]

I think Ferrier will get some blame for causing the by-election in the first place.

[YL]

13 candidates for Mid Bedfordshire

Festus Akinbusoye (Con)
Sid Cordle (Christian People's Alliance) [1]
Prince Ankit Love Emperor of India (no description) [2]
Dave Holland (Reform UK)
Emma Louise Holland-Lindsay (Lib Dem)
Ann Kelly (OMRLP)
Gareth Mackey (Independent) [3]
Chris Rooney (Mainstream) [4]
Cade Sibley (Green)
Alistair Luke Strathern (Lab)
Alberto George Thomas (Heritage)
Alan Victor (True and Fair) [5]
Antonio Daniel Vitiello (Eng Dem)

[1] I have had the opportunity to vote for this person in a parliamentary election.  I did not take it.
[2] Well, the empire apparently includes both Rutherglen and Mid Bedfordshire.
[3] Central Bedfordshire councillor, Flitwick ward.  The one who polled particularly well in the Opinium poll.
[4] Stood in Coventry South in 2015.  Here's what he told the Coventry Telegraph then.
[5] This is the party set up by anti-Brexit campaigner Gina Miller.  The candidate was nearly elected as an Independent in Cranfield & Marston Moretaine ward in May's Central Bedfordshire council election.

[YL]

9 candidates for Tamworth

Robert Bilcliff (UKIP)
Andy Cooper (Con)
Ian Stuart Cooper (Reform UK)
Sarah Siena Edwards (Lab)
Howling Laud Hope (OMRLP)
Sue Howarth (Green)
Peter George Longman (no descripton) [1]
Ashlea Simon (Britain First)
Sunny Virk (Lib Dem)

[1] I think this is the Peter Longman who is associated with an organisation called Transport for Britain.

[YL]

Labour has one attacking Lib Dem drug policy

I realize this isn’t necessarily the best example, but still, genuine question: is there any “social issue” on which a Starmer government would be different from the current one?

Labour quite often attack the Lib Dems on drug policy.  Blair mentioned Oldham East & Saddleworth, referring to what happened there in 2010, but in its predecessor constituency Littleborough & Saddleworth there was a 1995 by-election where Labour (with the same candidate as in 2010) attacked the Lib Dem candidate as "high on taxes and soft on drugs"; as a Lab/LD swing voter, it's not unheard of for Labour leaflets to be more effective at making me want to vote Lib Dem than Lib Dem ones.

(Littleborough & Saddleworth was actually a Tory-held seat, but it was 1995, so they were out of contention and it was between the Lib Dems and Labour.  The Lib Dem won, but the 1997 boundary changes which replaced Littleborough with eastern Oldham made it more Labour and Labour took the seat then.)

[YL]

(Mid Beds)

Current best odds for each party, BTW, are Lib Dems 7/4 on, Lab 4/1 against, Con 9/2 against.  (But remember Chesham & Amersham, Batley & Spen and Uxbridge & South Ruislip.)  If I were a betting man I think that I might take those odds on Labour.

Now Lab 11/8 against, Lib Dem 2/1 against, Con 9/4 against.