UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[Coldstream]

Went out in Mid Beds today. Was surprised at how good the reception was - it felt like we are ahead, but that the Lib Dem’s aren’t completely out of it. There seems to be fewer people than you’d expect considering them though, lots of “it’s a waste of a vote because they won’t be in government” sentiment.

I actually met a Reform canvasser today, he seemed optimistic they’d be keeping their despot - not sure how likely that is but they are working it.

I’ve never been anywhere that has such visceral, fixated, hatred on one person (Dorries) - I honestly found less hostility towards the Pedo ex-MP in Wakefield. It’s very hard to see the Tories holding on outside of a very weird vote split.

Would add that we seemed to be ahead on garden stakes, not sure how much that’s worth but it’s surprising the Lib Dem’s aren’t running away with that.

[Coldstream]

Unskew the polls!

The reform vote looks too high and I really doubt G*** M***er tiny party is going to get 4%.

I’m curious how the long campaign has been influencing this race; I know from a family friend who lives in the seat that they have had leaflets from Labour and the Liberals and been invited to a ‘coffee and chat’ with Labours PPC.

To be fair, the Gina Miller candidate stood in 2019 as an independent - he also stood in the local elections and nearly won a council seat. So he’s probably got some local name recognition (though I doubt it’s worth 4%).

[YL]

I actually met a Reform canvasser today, he seemed optimistic they’d be keeping their despot - not sure how likely that is but they are working it.

Tice or Farage?

[CumbrianLefty]

It’s weird how little coverage the Scottish by election is getting- I’ve not even seen a vox pox!

There was one in the Graun a few days ago.

[afleitch]

It’s weird how little coverage the Scottish by election is getting- I’ve not even seen a vox pox!

There was one in the Graun a few days ago.

The seat has been flooded with Labour figureheads and activists but with very little media coverage.

There are certain vibes around the race in recent weeks. It's also a very 'long' campaign even though it only officially started recently. That's wearying for the candidates and the electorate.

I admit I am being somewhat cagey in my observations.

[Blair]

Yeah both Mid Beds and Rutherglen are strange in that we’ve know for what 4 months that there was going to be a by election.

I wonder how the SNPs brand damage will impact them; I assume it’s basically that v Starmers issues as what pulls down each sides vote more.

I wonder how SNP Twitter would react to a defeat…

[Oryxslayer]

I wonder how SNP Twitter would react to a defeat…

Somewhere between "it's expected given Labour's massive lead" and "the level of Unionist tactical voting in a special election is unrepeatable in a GE" depending upon the size of the defeat.

[YL]

I think Ferrier will get some blame for causing the by-election in the first place.

[afleitch]

The SNP expect defeat. Anything else is a bonus.

[Torrain]

Politico’s Ailbhe Rea has a nice run-down of the Rutherglen by-election, with comment from Humza Yousaf, Anas Sarwar, both major candidates, and Prof John Curtice. They’ve even included a round of vox pops for Blair.

The full podcast can be found here: https://www.politico.eu/podcast/the-battle-for-scotland/

Probably not too much new info for regulars of this thread, but a nice primer if you’re coming in fresh.

[YL]

13 candidates for Mid Bedfordshire

Festus Akinbusoye (Con)
Sid Cordle (Christian People's Alliance) [1]
Prince Ankit Love Emperor of India (no description) [2]
Dave Holland (Reform UK)
Emma Louise Holland-Lindsay (Lib Dem)
Ann Kelly (OMRLP)
Gareth Mackey (Independent) [3]
Chris Rooney (Mainstream) [4]
Cade Sibley (Green)
Alistair Luke Strathern (Lab)
Alberto George Thomas (Heritage)
Alan Victor (True and Fair) [5]
Antonio Daniel Vitiello (Eng Dem)

[1] I have had the opportunity to vote for this person in a parliamentary election.  I did not take it.
[2] Well, the empire apparently includes both Rutherglen and Mid Bedfordshire.
[3] Central Bedfordshire councillor, Flitwick ward.  The one who polled particularly well in the Opinium poll.
[4] Stood in Coventry South in 2015.  Here's what he told the Coventry Telegraph then.
[5] This is the party set up by anti-Brexit campaigner Gina Miller.  The candidate was nearly elected as an Independent in Cranfield & Marston Moretaine ward in May's Central Bedfordshire council election.

[YL]

9 candidates for Tamworth

Robert Bilcliff (UKIP)
Andy Cooper (Con)
Ian Stuart Cooper (Reform UK)
Sarah Siena Edwards (Lab)
Howling Laud Hope (OMRLP)
Sue Howarth (Green)
Peter George Longman (no descripton) [1]
Ashlea Simon (Britain First)
Sunny Virk (Lib Dem)

[1] I think this is the Peter Longman who is associated with an organisation called Transport for Britain.

[CumbrianLefty]

The SNP expect defeat. Anything else is a bonus.

One thing to maybe look out for is how much the "unionist" vote unites behind Labour.

Tory lost deposit possible?

[Blair]

Am I correct that Rutherlegen (which I can't spell) has quite a lot of what I believe a poster on here called tongue in cheek 'Labours core vote now-old Lanarkshire grannies'?

There was a write up of the seat in the Guardian (which ironically didn't interview anyone under the age of 50)

[Oryxslayer]

Am I correct that Rutherlegen (which I can't spell) has quite a lot of what I believe a poster on here called tongue in cheek 'Labours core vote now-old Lanarkshire grannies'?

There was a write up of the seat in the Guardian (which ironically didn't interview anyone under the age of 50)

Looking at polling over the past few years, this is or perhaps was the case. Labour's vote got noticeably better increasing age categories, while the SNP's had a declining trend through the age brackets. However, since the scandals and the subsequent narrowing of the polls, both effects are have become somewhat muted. Labour's vote is approximately equivalent across all age categories, with a slight decrease among the Youth and increase among the retired. The SNP age decline meanwhile is less steep. They had less elderly voters to lose than among the middling and younger demographics, so those groups were going to fall and bring down the trendline. The SNP trend was always a much steeper decline then Labour's growth with increasing age: partially cause they had a larger share of the vote, partially cause the Conservative vote increases dramatically in the older age groups

Stepping back, this should be fairly understandable. Part of Labour's initial collapse was because the younger cohorts lacked the party self-identification their parents had from the previous decades, and could only associate Labour with scandal and/or Blair. This age trend can be seen in similar parties on the continent that one had near-duopolistic control but now have to compete with younger and more ideologically divided parties. When combined with the fact that the Tory vote is also elderly-dependent, and unionist voters are increasingly fine voting tactically for each other, this would make the core Labour vote in a SNP-Labour dogfight very dependent on the older cohorts.

The trend since the scandals also makes sense. The issues the SNP are dealing with are party organization and personality focused. This is unlikely to touch any particular age group in particular. Instead, I would not be surprised if income or perceived financial situation has a better correlation among those who shifted parties, given the current situation nationally and how both the SNP and Conservatives are seemingly unable to resolve the situation.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Am I correct that Rutherlegen (which I can't spell) has quite a lot of what I believe a poster on here called tongue in cheek 'Labours core vote now-old Lanarkshire grannies'?

There was a write up of the seat in the Guardian (which ironically didn't interview anyone under the age of 50)

The Guardian has previous for this. In the 2017 election they profiled a bunch of seats, one of which was Glasgow NE, which they painted as an SNP-Tory marginal based on their vox pops, none of which seemed to be with anybody below the retirement age. Sadly, I believe they've scrubbed that from the website.

[Blair]

I don’t really like how Lib Dems use betting odds in their campaign materials in this by upcoming by election- I know why they do it but I don’t really like it. Betting markets have always been stupid for politics especially when unlike say football, I assume those betting do not have the same amount of insight or knowledge.

Ignoring the fact they’re no longer favourites either…

But it appears there’s some red on yellow- labour has one attacking Lib Dem drug policy and Lib Dems are attacking the labour candidate as ‘Keir Starmers labour candidate’

I saw reporting about legal letters and well there was form I believe the only successful election court was triggered over the Oldham election. We luckily have not reached that level of awfulness yet.

[Estrella]

Labour has one attacking Lib Dem drug policy

I realize this isn’t necessarily the best example, but still, genuine question: is there any “social issue” on which a Starmer government would be different from the current one?

[YL]

Labour has one attacking Lib Dem drug policy

I realize this isn’t necessarily the best example, but still, genuine question: is there any “social issue” on which a Starmer government would be different from the current one?

Labour quite often attack the Lib Dems on drug policy.  Blair mentioned Oldham East & Saddleworth, referring to what happened there in 2010, but in its predecessor constituency Littleborough & Saddleworth there was a 1995 by-election where Labour (with the same candidate as in 2010) attacked the Lib Dem candidate as "high on taxes and soft on drugs"; as a Lab/LD swing voter, it's not unheard of for Labour leaflets to be more effective at making me want to vote Lib Dem than Lib Dem ones.

(Littleborough & Saddleworth was actually a Tory-held seat, but it was 1995, so they were out of contention and it was between the Lib Dems and Labour.  The Lib Dem won, but the 1997 boundary changes which replaced Littleborough with eastern Oldham made it more Labour and Labour took the seat then.)

[YL]

(Mid Beds)

Current best odds for each party, BTW, are Lib Dems 7/4 on, Lab 4/1 against, Con 9/2 against.  (But remember Chesham & Amersham, Batley & Spen and Uxbridge & South Ruislip.)  If I were a betting man I think that I might take those odds on Labour.

Now Lab 11/8 against, Lib Dem 2/1 against, Con 9/4 against.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Labour has one attacking Lib Dem drug policy

I realize this isn’t necessarily the best example, but still, genuine question: is there any “social issue” on which a Starmer government would be different from the current one?

Labour quite often attack the Lib Dems on drug policy.  Blair mentioned Oldham East & Saddleworth, referring to what happened there in 2010, but in its predecessor constituency Littleborough & Saddleworth there was a 1995 by-election where Labour (with the same candidate as in 2010) attacked the Lib Dem candidate as "high on taxes and soft on drugs"; as a Lab/LD swing voter, it's not unheard of for Labour leaflets to be more effective at making me want to vote Lib Dem than Lib Dem ones.

(Littleborough & Saddleworth was actually a Tory-held seat, but it was 1995, so they were out of contention and it was between the Lib Dems and Labour.  The Lib Dem won, but the 1997 boundary changes which replaced Littleborough with eastern Oldham made it more Labour and Labour took the seat then.)

Lab/LD squeeze material was often aimed at Pennine communities with decidedly reactionary attitudes. In 2010 I was campaigning in Cambridge and we were sent some national Lab/LD squeeze leaflets that went straight into a shredder, because we'd have haemhorraged votes if we put them out.

[YL]

Labour has one attacking Lib Dem drug policy

I realize this isn’t necessarily the best example, but still, genuine question: is there any “social issue” on which a Starmer government would be different from the current one?

Labour quite often attack the Lib Dems on drug policy.  Blair mentioned Oldham East & Saddleworth, referring to what happened there in 2010, but in its predecessor constituency Littleborough & Saddleworth there was a 1995 by-election where Labour (with the same candidate as in 2010) attacked the Lib Dem candidate as "high on taxes and soft on drugs"; as a Lab/LD swing voter, it's not unheard of for Labour leaflets to be more effective at making me want to vote Lib Dem than Lib Dem ones.

(Littleborough & Saddleworth was actually a Tory-held seat, but it was 1995, so they were out of contention and it was between the Lib Dems and Labour.  The Lib Dem won, but the 1997 boundary changes which replaced Littleborough with eastern Oldham made it more Labour and Labour took the seat then.)

Lab/LD squeeze material was often aimed at Pennine communities with decidedly reactionary attitudes. In 2010 I was campaigning in Cambridge and we were sent some national Lab/LD squeeze leaflets that went straight into a shredder, because we'd have haemhorraged votes if we put them out.

Oldham East & Saddleworth more than Hebden Bridge?

[Torrain]

STV held a televised debate between the SNP, Labour and Conservative candidates for Rutherglen this evening. As ever, STV loves to let candidates cross-examine each other, so it got a bit punchy:

• Labour’s Michael Shanks took hits over Labour’s reversal on the two-child cap, and had a tightrope to walk on issues where he diverges from London.
• Conservative Thomas Kerr was hauled over the coals for praising Liz Truss, mere days before the fiscal event - and struggled to defend the government’s record.
• The SNP’s Katy Loudon couldn’t answer whether she supported further council tax rises, and was criticised for pledging to put the party line first.

Write-up here. If it’s posted to YouTube, I’ll share the link.

The Lib Dem candidate was invited, but “chose not to attend” - Lib-Lab non-aggression pact?

[Blair]

The interesting thing is that I reckon even before the SNP wars begun this seat might have flipped- iirc even in May 2021 labour almost won a by election in Scotland despite putting absolutely no investment in it.

I can’t recall the seat name perhaps begun with an A?

[Coldstream]

The interesting thing is that I reckon even before the SNP wars begun this seat might have flipped- iirc even in May 2021 labour almost won a by election in Scotland despite putting absolutely no investment in it.

I can’t recall the seat name perhaps begun with an A?

Airdrie & Shotts, we were 1.7k off. It was a real sleeper by-election caused by an SNP MP switching to holy rood iirc.