2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Gass3268]

the number of uncounted ballots remaining in Arizona:
Uncounted votes in AZ, according to The Arizona Republic:

About 43,761 ballots in Maricopa County, including 15,000 provisionals.
About 18,700 in Pima County, including 18,000 provisionals.
Roughly 23,000 in Pinal County, including 1,800 provisionals.
About 2,150 in Yuma County.
More than 3,000 ballots in Yavapai County.
Roughly 600 ballots in Coconino County.
Less than 500 in Navajo County.
About 900 in La Paz County.
Less than 400 in Gila County.
Less than 100 in Graham County.
Mohave County only has provisional ballots left to count, but the number remains unclear.

What's the likely outcome based on this?

Maricopa regular, Maricopa provisionals, Pinal regular and Pima provisionals are the big ones, how are each of them likely to go?

I did some analysis a few pages back based on the current county totals by category on https://arizona.vote/ballot-progress.html.  Basically, with some very favorable assumptions Trump can get real close.  So while it's difficult to see him winning (Biden is definitely favored), it's not impossible.  If I was on a decision desk, I wouldn't call it yet.

I’ve read that what’s left of Maricopa’s “regular” vote are special cases, such as ballots for disabled folks (large print, Braille, etc.), overseas, and military. On net, I imagine that would lean towards Biden.

[Gass3268]

About the Maricopa vote dump in an hour or so:

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1325567242910593024

if these do not go majorly trump, will AZ be called?

These are "special ballots" too, so they probably lean towards Biden or at the very least won't give Trump the ~60% he needs.

https://twitter.com/MaricopaVote/status/1325105878547099648?s=20

[Gass3268]

It's pretty ridiculous that ballots are still not fully counted in Arizona.  Haven't they been doing mostly mail ballot elections for years?

TBF, they are doing better than 2 years ago.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1325574471042928640?s=20

[Gass3268]

Wow, that Maricopa drop was brutal for whatever hopes Trump may have had in the state. He cannot afford to win these drops by 11 points, let alone lose them by that much.

It was a small batch.

What's ever left of the non-provisionals is of the same type (ballots that take longer to count).

[Gass3268]

Garrett Archer (aka the Jon Ralston of Arizona) calls it for Biden.

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1325578469628018688?s=20

[Gass3268]

Wow, that Maricopa drop was brutal for whatever hopes Trump may have had in the state. He cannot afford to win these drops by 11 points, let alone lose them by that much.

It was a small batch.

Was there anything particularly unique about this latest batch that would distinguish its results from further Maricopa ballots? Genuine question.

About the Maricopa vote dump in an hour or so:

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1325567242910593024

if these do not go majorly trump, will AZ be called?

These are "special ballots" too, so they probably lean towards Biden or at the very least won't give Trump the ~60% he needs.

https://twitter.com/MaricopaVote/status/1325105878547099648?s=20

All they have left in the non-provisional group are "different ballots." Braille, large print, overseas, and military ballots. As we saw from this batch, they will lean towards Biden. 

[Gass3268]

There was another vote dump somewhere in Arizona...

Yeah, Biden gained another 926 votes.

[Gass3268]

Another dump in Arizona. Biden's lead dropped to 16,952 votes

Trump 8567
Biden 4491
Total 13417

Pinal - 500 mail-in ballots, 1700 provs remaining in the county.

This was the last mass number of ballots that would be super Trump.

[Gass3268]

California keeps tightening with each update.  Biden is likely to end up with a lower CA margin of victory than Hillary when all is said and done.  WA/OR and NJ/MD are also tightening with late ballots.  I wouldn't expect the NPV margin to balloon like it did in 2016.  The NY absentees could be near unanimous Biden, but that could be last big PV swing he will get.

Really about Maryland? When I first looked Biden was ~60% and is now up to 63.33%.

Illinois still has ~600K, the vast majority are in Cook and Lake counties. There are also thousands of ballots left to count in predominantly Democratic areas in Virginia.

It would be nice if there was one place were we could see the total numbers of votes still outstanding.

[Gass3268]

Arizona is confirmed D, for one thing.

Why it is confirmed if new numbers are T-friendly???

What's left (Special and Provisional ballots) aren't Trump friendly.

[Gass3268]

Another batch from Clark County:

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1325846893239263234?s=20

[Gass3268]

I think this most recent batch from Clark County means Nevada has officially swung to the Dems from 2016.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/johnkruzel/status/1325855042222632960?s=20

"Dictatorship of the state legislature doctrine"

That said, these late arriving votes haven't been counted yet or included into Biden's lead in the state. This case is meaningless for the result in the state.

[Gass3268]

Remember those ~8,000 outstanding military votes that were going to save Trump in Georgia? Only ~1,000 came back in time.

https://twitter.com/AmyEGardner/status/1325862774262599680?s=20

[Gass3268]

Small Arizona update:

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1325866763850969096?s=20

[Gass3268]

Ouch to Trump:

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1325871697946275840?s=20

[Gass3268]

I think this most recent batch from Clark County means Nevada has officially swung to the Dems from 2016.

But mah conservative Latinos narrative!

Trump is still doing 2.3% better in Clark County than in 2016- the county has still swung R.

I mean there is still late VBM out that will pad onto Biden's margin. Ralston think Biden's wins Nevada by 4

Yeah, Clinton won by 10.7% in Clark, Biden is now up by 10% and there still a lot left there.

[Gass3268]

For anyone curious about Georgia, the deadline for counties to certify votes to the state is Nov. 13.  Approximately 47 counties have already certified (Gwinnett is the largest of them).  The state then has until Nov. 20 to certify the results.  At that point, recount requests will be accepted.

Is there any limitations on requesting a recount?

[Gass3268]

....is New York ever going to start counting their mail ins?

Illinois also appears to be going very slow too.

New York doesn't start until this week, I think tomorrow, but I could be wrong about that.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/ZekeJMiller/status/1325947140439482368

I would be more worried about this if Barr had "found" something with Durham.

They don't have to find anything, they're going to use this to challenge the electoral votes in the Senate, which McConnell seems all in on doing

The electoral college meets in a joint body of the House and Senate, McConnell can't challenge it on his own.

[Gass3268]

AP headline was pretty crappy:

https://twitter.com/chrislhayes/status/1325956514218209281?s=20

[Gass3268]

Yeah, this is totally about keeping Trump happy.

https://twitter.com/Tom_Winter/status/1325961331493761027?s=20

https://twitter.com/Tom_Winter/status/1325962438110556160?s=20

[Gass3268]

Given how many states Trump's challenging, it's time to ask what I asked months ago and never got an answer to--while the courts are clearly not giving Trump victories he wants, what happens if he continues to keep the states tied up in the appeals process, and thus prevents MI/AZ/PA/GA (states that have R legislatures) from certifying their results before the December 8 deadline?

The courts will eventually tell him to F off.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/marceelias/status/1325950513200893952

The Trump campaign is getting destroyed in court.