2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[cg41386]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1325563462433509376

I don't think he's appearing though.

What is that even?  That sounds like some D list conservamoron.  He's not even getting Tucker to push this?

He has a radio show as well as a weekend TV show on Fox. He loves to brag about how much of a constitutional expert he is, but he actually knows very little. Loves to shout. Very irritating voice.

[emailking]

What is that even?  That sounds like some D list conservamoron.  He's not even getting Tucker to push this?

Trump loves him and promotes his show a lot but kind of a nobody yeah. Guess we'll have to see what Tucker does tomorrow.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/HKrassenstein/status/1325408154889367558?s=19

[Gass3268]

Wow, that Maricopa drop was brutal for whatever hopes Trump may have had in the state. He cannot afford to win these drops by 11 points, let alone lose them by that much.

It was a small batch.

What's ever left of the non-provisionals is of the same type (ballots that take longer to count).

[Badger]

What are the chances the Supreme Court sides with him?

Literally 0. He's been unable to present any evidence of fraud (because there isn't any), & so the federal courts have 12(b)(6)'d all of his "claims" so far. At this point, none of his suits are even making it to the Court (the PA case that Alito partially "ruled on" (read: literally just reminded the state to keep doing something it was already doing) will be as close as it gets). If Trump thought he could just ramrod the cases to the Court & then - since he appointed 3 justices - think they'd give him a favorable result, he's in for some disappointment.

What about the possibilities of challenging the electoral vote certification, or strong arming state legislatures into subverting the popular vote--something I doubt they'd care about their image over if they know they can easily overturn voter will.

If this entire election came down to Arizona or Georgia, possibly both, I could possibly see their respective state legislatures pulling some dog and pony show committee " investigation of widespread voter fraud" and trying to pull that s***. And if they did, I would bet anyone 10 to 1 that a solid majority of our current Court makeup would go along with it it with a big shrug of, well, the Constitution says it's their prerogative so who are we to say this was a partisan Hatchet job? Best leave it to the voters of their state to deal with! I don't think even Roberts would go off the reservation.

Fortunately, it's just too many states requiring a flip at this point that Republicans are willing to throw down over it. Not to mention it's Trump and, since they still control the Senate, they're not too worried about it.

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1325563462433509376

I don't think he's appearing though.

What is that even?  That sounds like some D list conservamoron.  He's not even getting Tucker to push this?

Uh oh...

"During the 2020 election, Levin called on Republican-controlled state legislatures to disregard the results of the 2020 election and send electors to the Electoral College who would vote for Trump.[69]"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Levin#2020_election

[Badger]

Wow, that Maricopa drop was brutal for whatever hopes Trump may have had in the state. He cannot afford to win these drops by 11 points, let alone lose them by that much.

It was a small batch.

Was there anything particularly unique about this latest batch that would distinguish its results from further Maricopa ballots? Genuine question.

[Gass3268]

Garrett Archer (aka the Jon Ralston of Arizona) calls it for Biden.

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1325578469628018688?s=20

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

Now we just need the non-Fox news networks to call it! Then we will have just GA, NC, and AK!

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Garrett Archer says Biden has enough to win Arizona.

[Gass3268]

Wow, that Maricopa drop was brutal for whatever hopes Trump may have had in the state. He cannot afford to win these drops by 11 points, let alone lose them by that much.

It was a small batch.

Was there anything particularly unique about this latest batch that would distinguish its results from further Maricopa ballots? Genuine question.

About the Maricopa vote dump in an hour or so:

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1325567242910593024

if these do not go majorly trump, will AZ be called?

These are "special ballots" too, so they probably lean towards Biden or at the very least won't give Trump the ~60% he needs.

https://twitter.com/MaricopaVote/status/1325105878547099648?s=20

All they have left in the non-provisional group are "different ballots." Braille, large print, overseas, and military ballots. As we saw from this batch, they will lean towards Biden. 

[DrScholl]

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1325267759769546753

Results like this might complicate the GOP's inevitable push to gerrymander.  How much of the white flight from the GOP is specific to Trump, that's what they have to reconcile going forward. 

They won't have much choice but to draw a vote sink for Fletcher.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I will never doubt the Fox Decision Desk ever again. A job well done.

[GeorgiaModerate]

OK, the website has updated and I have better numbers. 

Arizona now has the following estimated ballots left per https://arizona.vote/ballot-progress.html:

Ballots needing signature verification by 5pm MST Tuesday: 6253
Provisional ballots: 45872
Ballots ready for tabulation: 41872

Total: 93997

Prior to the last dump, Maricopa had 5000, 15000, and 23661 in the three categories, for a total of 43,761.  The first two were obviously approximations, but now they have better numbers.  Maricopa estimates it now has left:

Needing signature cure: 3700 (-1300)
Provisional: 16204 (+1204)
Ready for tabulation: 18455 (-5206)

These don't add up exactly to the 6752 vote dump because previously the first two categories were estimates, and now we have more clarity on them. 

Updating with these numbers and using the same (very) Trump-friendly assumptions as before:

50% of the ballots needing signature cures will be accepted.
80% of the provisionals will be accepted.
Trump will do 10% better (and Biden 10% worse) than the current margins in each county.

With these assumptions, an estimated 81696 ballots will be accepted, and Trump will net 16347 of them.  He currently trails by 20102, so would finish behind by 3755, up from 2117 before the Maricopa dump.

So not *quite* as bad for Trump as my original estimate above.  But I've still seen enough.

[Stockdale for Veep]

Deciphering the blend of each AZ dump remains my favorite election week activity.

[Hammy]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1325563462433509376

I don't think he's appearing though.

What is that even?  That sounds like some D list conservamoron.  He's not even getting Tucker to push this?

Uh oh...

"During the 2020 election, Levin called on Republican-controlled state legislatures to disregard the results of the 2020 election and send electors to the Electoral College who would vote for Trump.[69]"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Levin#2020_election

I keep telling you people this is what's going to happen in the end

I will never doubt the Fox Decision Desk ever again. A job well done.

Ironic Fox seems like the only one whose decision desk aren't basing whether or not to call a state on how much ratings they can pull from not doing so.

[Kuumo]

Wow, that Maricopa drop was brutal for whatever hopes Trump may have had in the state. He cannot afford to win these drops by 11 points, let alone lose them by that much.

It was a small batch.

Was there anything particularly unique about this latest batch that would distinguish its results from further Maricopa ballots? Genuine question.

About the Maricopa vote dump in an hour or so:

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1325567242910593024

if these do not go majorly trump, will AZ be called?

These are "special ballots" too, so they probably lean towards Biden or at the very least won't give Trump the ~60% he needs.

https://twitter.com/MaricopaVote/status/1325105878547099648?s=20

All they have left in the non-provisional group are "different ballots." Braille, large print, overseas, and military ballots. As we saw from this batch, they will lean towards Biden.  

I'm definitely having trouble seeing blind people, expats, and military members from Arizona saving Trump here.

As Nate Silver would say,
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1324567154306490368
Hive Sea Knee Off.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1325563462433509376
I don't think he's appearing though.

What is that even?  That sounds like some D list conservamoron.  He's not even getting Tucker to push this?

Uh oh...

"During the 2020 election, Levin called on Republican-controlled state legislatures to disregard the results of the 2020 election and send electors to the Electoral College who would vote for Trump.[69]"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Levin#2020_election

I keep telling you people this is what's going to happen in the end

And we keep telling you that it's not.  It's a right-wing fantasy.

[Hammy]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1325563462433509376
I don't think he's appearing though.

What is that even?  That sounds like some D list conservamoron.  He's not even getting Tucker to push this?

Uh oh...

"During the 2020 election, Levin called on Republican-controlled state legislatures to disregard the results of the 2020 election and send electors to the Electoral College who would vote for Trump.[69]"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Levin#2020_election

I keep telling you people this is what's going to happen in the end

And we keep telling you that it's not.  It's a right-wing fantasy.

Everything Trump's done after entering office was right wing fantasy until it became reality. I have absolutely no faith in these people to do the right thing as they've proven they simply don't care

[Mike88]

There was another vote dump somewhere in Arizona...

[GeorgiaModerate]

Arkansas police chief resigns after calling for violence against Democrats

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

There was another vote dump somewhere in Arizona...

Yeah, Biden up to 21K per DDHQ.

[Gass3268]

There was another vote dump somewhere in Arizona...

Yeah, Biden gained another 926 votes.

[Badger]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1325563462433509376

I don't think he's appearing though.

What is that even?  That sounds like some D list conservamoron.  He's not even getting Tucker to push this?

Uh oh...

"During the 2020 election, Levin called on Republican-controlled state legislatures to disregard the results of the 2020 election and send electors to the Electoral College who would vote for Trump.[69]"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Levin#2020_election

I keep telling you people this is what's going to happen in the end

Trust me, man. I have been as worried about this as anyone in the event of a closed Spanish election like this. However, at the end of the day even trying to claim voter fraud change the razor close a parent Biden wins in Georgia and Arizona isn't enough. Or even Nevada! They would have to call fraud in big industrial state like Pennsylvania or Wisconsin to pull this off oh, and the margins there, while not overwhelming, are just too great for the GOP to die on this hill for Trump.

This isn't some Newfound Morality In the Republican Party. I believe to a large degree they are mummified by the fact that they unexpectedly kept the Senate, so they will be able to bottle up everything and anything Biden attempts that can't be accomplished with executive orders. They can sit and expect typical midterm election games in two years, and then come back in 24 with an establishment fact Neo authoritarian more to their tastes.

That said, as I said a few minutes ago, if this came down to one or possibly two states as close as Georgia or Arizona, you can bet your bottom dollar they go for it. And they'll try it in 24 under such circumstances, guaranteed.

[Mike88]

Another dump in Arizona. Biden's lead dropped to 16,952 votes