2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[Gass3268]

Just a few minutes later and it's up to 4.45 million votes now:

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html

Looks like the added numbers are mostly from Michigan.

Wisconsin just added over 100,000 votes in the new update. Dane is now at over 50% requested and 50% returned.

Dane County finally passed Douglas County on the return %.

[Gass3268]

When can Wisconsin start counting ballots?

Day of, but other than maybe Milwaukee this shouldn't be a massive issues. Each municipality and town count their own ballots, so it's not like they have to go to a central county location. Also they typically only release results once they have 100% for a given precinct, municipality, or town.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/MadisonWIClerk/status/1313582111790637058?s=20

So about 53% of the Dane County vote is coming from Madison. The suburbs and rurals are keeping up well.

[Gass3268]

Just a few minutes later and it's up to 4.45 million votes now:

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html

Looks like the added numbers are mostly from Michigan.

Wisconsin just added over 100,000 votes in the new update. Dane is now at over 50% requested and 50% returned.

Judging by those insane Dane #s, that modeling for Wisconsin appears to be severely wrong.

Not just Dane, but the entire state. Almost the entirety of returned votes are from urban areas or Democrat-friendly enclaves, even in the more conservative parts of the state.

How can you tell they are coming from urban areas?  Are you basing this off the county results or some more specific precinct level data within counties?

We got town/municipality data last night. Go back a few pages and there is a map.

[Gass3268]

This is the first time Pennsylvania has like ever had mass early vote, I'm not shocked they might not be up to speed on reporting statistics early on.

[Gass3268]

Milwaukee county catching up to WOW is making me feel good.

I like the fact it’s returning more votes than Dane County everyday. We know Dane County will show up, need the same for Milwaukee.

[Gass3268]

I try not to read too much into it since the use of mail voting is much greater in 2020 than 2016 but in Palm Beach county more Democrats (80,848) have cast mail ballots in 2020 than did during the entire 2016 election (74,079). The total mail vote is closing in too, 134,258 so far in 2020 vs 152,336 in 2016.

What if you combine VBM and early vote?

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/sbauerAP/status/1314261190827274245

So is this good or bad and what does this mean?

This means that ballots have to arrive on Election Night as prescribed by state law. In district court a judge had extended that by 6 days but that ruling did not stand on appeal

Yeah, not good, but it's what we expected.

[Gass3268]

could this backfire because the Democrats have been turning them in quickly whereas the GOP has a lot of outstanding ballots?

It wouldn't be the first or even second time recently that WI Republicans have kneecapped themselves in an attempt to suppress the Democrat's chances of winning.

The state party and others have been amazing this cycle at getting information out to the public. If this holds at the Supreme Court, which I imagine it will, there will be a big push in the last 1-2 weeks for folks to not mail in their ballots, but drop them off.

[Gass3268]

The longest we'll have to wait for absentees to be counted in Wisconsin will be Milwaukee, but they are still expecting results that night/early morning.

https://twitter.com/WisVoter/status/1314255979022868482?s=20

[Gass3268]

Jon Ralston
@RalstonReports
·
17m
The early voting blog is updated!

Dems have gained 3,000 on their voter registration lead over the GOP in Clark County since mid-September. They are gaining hundreds every day now.

Also, a look at key Assembly races.

The Machine has awakened!

[Gass3268]

The longest we'll have to wait for absentees to be counted in Wisconsin will be Milwaukee, but they are still expecting results that night/early morning.

https://twitter.com/WisVoter/status/1314255979022868482?s=20

So does this mean Dems shouldn't be worried if Trump is up by 20,000 votes at midnight on election night?

I think so. This is similar to what happened in the 2018 Gubernatorial Race, but that was unintentional.

[Gass3268]

Milwaukee topped 100,000 returned ballots! Really impressed with their performance over the past week. They are now now returning more ballots than Dane County every day and are in the Top 10 for % of 2016 vote returned. Dane County will pass 30% of registered voters voted already tomorrow and will in all likelihood pass 40% of 2016 votes by Monday. Far northern Wisconsin has also been really strong. Ashland, Bayfield, Douglas, Iron, Oneida, Sawyer, and Vilas counties are all over 20% of 2016 voters returned. The weakest areas really appear to be central and western Wisconsin.

[Gass3268]

Will any state reach more than 100% of 2016 turnout before election day?

Probably not in the state as a whole, but maybe a county in Florida? Mix of population increase and a history of Republican VBM?

[Gass3268]

California seeing a massive surge of folks getting their ballots in early. Already 250K+ votes submitted.

https://twitter.com/Political_Data/status/1314770103569846273?s=20

[Gass3268]

I think Democrats will get the coveted 600k vote lead in Florida before Election Day...  still not sure where 600k came from though...

I am very hesitant to assume anything from EV reporting, other than this is likely to be one of the highest turnouts overall in the modern era.  Election day could be near unanimous for Trump in states with no-excuse EV and VBM.

I don't think it's going to be that extreme on election day. With a lot of minority groups, there is a legitimate fear that their ballots won't be counted if they vote by mail. Lots of those folks will vote early, but a number will vote on election day too.

[Gass3268]

We got a surprising weekend absentee update in Wisconsin. Similar trends going on, but I have to say Milwaukee is really kicking butt right now! They returned 6,200 ballots since Friday's report. Only a little over 9,000 votes before they pass Dane County, who returned 4,054 since Friday. There is typically a surge on Monday/Tuesday after they've counted votes that came over the weekend. Wouldn't surprise me if Wisconsin cross over the 700,000 line then. Will have another map update on Tuesday.

[Gass3268]

We got a surprising weekend absentee update in Wisconsin. Similar trends going on, but I have to say Milwaukee is really kicking butt right now! They returned 6,200 ballots since Friday's report. Only a little over 9,000 votes before they pass Dane County, who returned 4,054 since Friday. There is typically a surge on Monday/Tuesday after they've counted votes that came over the weekend. Wouldn't surprise me if Wisconsin cross over the 700,000 line then. Will have another map update on Tuesday.

Are republicans turning out in the same numbers? i've been hearing from people the turnout is pretty good for both sides.

Turnout has been pretty good in Ozaukee and Waukesha, but middling in Washington. Northern Wisconsin has been pretty good too, but that's pretty mixed between traditional Democratic and Republican counties. Other than that most of the big Republican counties are below the state % right now.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/BryanLowry3/status/1315661570744225792?s=20

[Gass3268]

Crazy registration numbers in Texas.

https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1315786012812075010?s=20

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/MaricopaVote/status/1315762648282132481?s=20

[Gass3268]

Crazy registration numbers in Texas.

https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1315786012812075010?s=20

"It's not there yet"

Some pollsters are probably better than others, but I have to imagine Texas' radial growth makes it very difficult to poll. Most polls base their demographics off of the census, but I'm not sure how you can do that when there are already hundreds of thousands of new voters since the last set of estimates.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/RonBrownstein/status/1315786625561944064

I read that about 1% of all the polling machines in the entire state of Georgia are at the State Farm Arena.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/hope_iam/status/1315837232725536770?s=20

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/JudgeClayJ/status/1316064249505079297?s=20