2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[Non Swing Voter]

https://public.tableau.com/profile/dave.trotter#!/vizhome/2020FloridaElectionData/VoteComposition

updated Florida numbers.

Dems up 310k now.

[Stuart98]

https://public.tableau.com/profile/dave.trotter#!/vizhome/2020FloridaElectionData/VoteComposition

updated Florida numbers.

Dems up 310k now.

Fixed link.

[Non Swing Voter]

Wow big update, numbers up to almost 8 million now!

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html

[Holmes]

Minnesota came in strong. Hennepin and Ramsey are looking strong at nearly 50% returned each.

[Non Swing Voter]

I think we are at the point where we start getting 2 million or more new votes a day.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Early in person voting starts in some big Sun Belt states next week: Texas and Georgia. We should see tons of votes added daily.

[ExSky]

I think we are at the point where we start getting 2 million or more new votes a day.

Starting Tuesday I’d expect it. Texas begins early voting and I know many other states begin

[Rep Jessica]

IA update today.

[Gass3268]

Milwaukee topped 100,000 returned ballots! Really impressed with their performance over the past week. They are now now returning more ballots than Dane County every day and are in the Top 10 for % of 2016 vote returned. Dane County will pass 30% of registered voters voted already tomorrow and will in all likelihood pass 40% of 2016 votes by Monday. Far northern Wisconsin has also been really strong. Ashland, Bayfield, Douglas, Iron, Oneida, Sawyer, and Vilas counties are all over 20% of 2016 voters returned. The weakest areas really appear to be central and western Wisconsin.

[DINGO Joe]

IA update today.

Just for frame of reference, Iowa had 650,000 early voters in 2016 and that was 41% of the total vote.  The D advantage in the early vote that election was 42,000.  So, obviously, the 150,000+ advantage right now is a huge head start for the Ds.  If I have time this evening, I might try to do a deep dive into IA.

[GP270watch]

Milwaukee topped 100,000 returned ballots! Really impressed with their performance over the past week. They are now now returning more ballots than Dane County every day and are in the Top 10 for % of 2016 vote returned. Dane County will pass 30% of registered voters voted already tomorrow and will in all likelihood pass 40% of 2016 votes by Monday. Far northern Wisconsin has also been really strong. Ashland, Bayfield, Douglas, Iron, Oneida, Sawyer, and Vilas counties are all over 20% of 2016 voters returned. The weakest areas really appear to be central and western Wisconsin.

 So is the Koch voting juggernaut in Wisconsin lagging or are Democrats just that enthused?

[Dr. Arch]

Milwaukee topped 100,000 returned ballots! Really impressed with their performance over the past week. They are now now returning more ballots than Dane County every day and are in the Top 10 for % of 2016 vote returned. Dane County will pass 30% of registered voters voted already tomorrow and will in all likelihood pass 40% of 2016 votes by Monday. Far northern Wisconsin has also been really strong. Ashland, Bayfield, Douglas, Iron, Oneida, Sawyer, and Vilas counties are all over 20% of 2016 voters returned. The weakest areas really appear to be central and western Wisconsin.

 So is the Koch voting juggernaut in Wisconsin lagging or are Democrats just that enthused?

The latter. The Kochs don't like Trump enough to invest like they did for Walker, either way.

[Bootes Void]

Will any state reach more than 100% of 2016 turnout before election day?

[Dr. Arch]

Will any state reach more than 100% of 2016 turnout before election day?

That would require high turnout by Republicans in the form of VBM or early voting as well, and I don't think that's happening.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Minnesota came in strong. Hennepin and Ramsey are looking strong at nearly 50% returned each.

Also 43% of all ballots returned. In 2016 they made up 31% of total returns.

[The Mikado]

http://www.electproject.org/_/rsrc/1551800206840/national-1789-present/National%20Turnout%20Series.png

Big fan of this image from elect project. Fascinating story.

[Tender Branson]

Will any state reach more than 100% of 2016 turnout before election day?

Only the vote by mail states can achieve such a thing.

And even they have a huge junk of their returns coming in on Election Day itself or later, so no.

[Non Swing Voter]

Maybe Virginia comes close to 100%?  It's a growing state (so more registered voters than 2016) and it's seeing heavy turnout already and Fairfax hasn't really opened yet.  Right now it's at 22.3% turnout. 

[Skill and Chance]

http://www.electproject.org/_/rsrc/1551800206840/national-1789-present/National%20Turnout%20Series.png

Big fan of this image from elect project. Fascinating story.

2018 really stands out vs. any other time with remotely modern election laws.

[Minnesota Mike]

Strong day for returns (or at least returns processed)in Iowa. More than 54,000 ballots were returned, more than the 42,000 total up to this point. Dems up 62-26%. Dems 16.7% of requests returned, Republicans 11.2%. Historically Democrats dominate early voting in Iowa.

https://sos.iowa.gov/elections/pdf/2020/general/AbsenteeCongressional2020.pdf

[Gass3268]

Will any state reach more than 100% of 2016 turnout before election day?

Probably not in the state as a whole, but maybe a county in Florida? Mix of population increase and a history of Republican VBM?

[kph14]

Will any state reach more than 100% of 2016 turnout before election day?

Probably not in the state as a whole, but maybe a county in Florida? Mix of population increase and a history of Republican VBM?

NJ, NV, HI and VT send mail ballots to all voters for the first time and it might happen in one of them

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/davebjerke/status/1314664637267349505

[Non Swing Voter]

PA numbers picking up, but still very low compared to other states.  But the partisan gap is enormous.

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/PA.html

198k D
42k R

[Dr. Arch]

PA numbers picking up, but still very low compared to other states.  But the partisan gap is enormous.

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/PA.html

198k D
42k R

3:1. That electoral makeup is reminiscent of MN in 2018.