2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[Tintrlvr]

Has anyone calculated the margin biden must have (before election day) to win?

I think it's almost impossible to say what margin the Democrats need in early voting because this year is so different from previous years. We just don't know what the partisan breakdown will be on election day, how many voters will turn out then, etc. Any assumptions would be little more than guesswork and could result in wildly diverging standards.

[Non Swing Voter]

Michael McDonald
@ElectProject
·
4m
#earlyvote cast as a percentage of *total* 2016 vote is truly amazing

SD: 22.8%
VA 20.7%
WI: 20.6%
WY: 14.9%
VT: 14% (report from yesterday)
MI: 13.1% (report from yesterday)
ND: 12.1%
NJ: 12.3%
FL: 12.3%
MN: 11.3% (report from last Fri.)

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-202

LOL regarding the ridiculous Virginia turnout, that's just pure hatred of Trump fueling it.

[Holmes]

Michael McDonald
@ElectProject
·
4m
#earlyvote cast as a percentage of *total* 2016 vote is truly amazing

SD: 22.8%
VA 20.7%
WI: 20.6%
WY: 14.9%
VT: 14% (report from yesterday)
MI: 13.1% (report from yesterday)
ND: 12.1%
NJ: 12.3%
FL: 12.3%
MN: 11.3% (report from last Fri.)

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-202

LOL regarding the ridiculous Virginia turnout, that's just pure hatred of Trump fueling it.

Wisconsin too.

[Non Swing Voter]

Michael McDonald
@ElectProject
·
4m
#earlyvote cast as a percentage of *total* 2016 vote is truly amazing

SD: 22.8%
VA 20.7%
WI: 20.6%
WY: 14.9%
VT: 14% (report from yesterday)
MI: 13.1% (report from yesterday)
ND: 12.1%
NJ: 12.3%
FL: 12.3%
MN: 11.3% (report from last Fri.)

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-202

LOL regarding the ridiculous Virginia turnout, that's just pure hatred of Trump fueling it.

Wisconsin too.

Yeah but at least you could say that's a battleground state and it's important to vote.  Nobody is actually fearful Trump will win Virginia, people are just turning out in outrageous numbers early to give Trump the middle finger.

[Ljube]

Michael McDonald
@ElectProject
·
4m
#earlyvote cast as a percentage of *total* 2016 vote is truly amazing

SD: 22.8%
VA 20.7%
WI: 20.6%
WY: 14.9%
VT: 14% (report from yesterday)
MI: 13.1% (report from yesterday)
ND: 12.1%
NJ: 12.3%
FL: 12.3%
MN: 11.3% (report from last Fri.)

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-202

LOL regarding the ridiculous Virginia turnout, that's just pure hatred of Trump fueling it.

Wisconsin too.

Yeah but at least you could say that's a battleground state and it's important to vote.  Nobody is actually fearful Trump will win Virginia, people are just turning out in outrageous numbers early to give Trump the middle finger.

Yeah. Virginia is full of Trump haters.

[indietraveler]

Michael McDonald
@ElectProject
·
4m
#earlyvote cast as a percentage of *total* 2016 vote is truly amazing

SD: 22.8%
VA 20.7%
WI: 20.6%
WY: 14.9%
VT: 14% (report from yesterday)
MI: 13.1% (report from yesterday)
ND: 12.1%
NJ: 12.3%
FL: 12.3%
MN: 11.3% (report from last Fri.)

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-202

I wonder how high this could be by election day overall. In another week or so these numbers are going to start to explode. While it's hard to make year over year comparisons it seems like the above is a decent measurement if certain key counties get 80-100% of their 2016 total before election day. Given how close the rust belt was in 2016 and knowing that Trump has a high floor, but a low ceiling we could reasonably have a decent idea on election day eve.

My nerves are gone about people not turning out due to covid. And while mail voting is still a question mark considering deadlines I'm starting to feel a little better about that too seeing some of the return rates so far.

[Tintrlvr]

Michael McDonald
@ElectProject
·
4m
#earlyvote cast as a percentage of *total* 2016 vote is truly amazing

SD: 22.8%
VA 20.7%
WI: 20.6%
WY: 14.9%
VT: 14% (report from yesterday)
MI: 13.1% (report from yesterday)
ND: 12.1%
NJ: 12.3%
FL: 12.3%
MN: 11.3% (report from last Fri.)

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-202

LOL regarding the ridiculous Virginia turnout, that's just pure hatred of Trump fueling it.

Wisconsin too.

Yeah but at least you could say that's a battleground state and it's important to vote.  Nobody is actually fearful Trump will win Virginia, people are just turning out in outrageous numbers early to give Trump the middle finger.

Reminds me of having to wait over an hour in line in the rain to vote in my precinct in Brooklyn in 2018. Literally no competitive races at all, but people were fired up to turn out anyway.

Fortunately, we have early voting now and a lot more absentee voting, so I don't expect any lines when I go to vote (which will be early in person rather than on election day).

[Non Swing Voter]

While I am happy with the turnout so far, I feel like the trend is slowing down a bit.  Maybe I'm overanalyzing, but I was expecting 1 million ballots a day by now approaching 2 million a day by Monday.  Turnout is still high but I expected it to explode a bit more given how many states are now open for voting.

[Bootes Void]

While I am happy with the turnout so far, I feel like the trend is slowing down a bit.  Maybe I'm overanalyzing, but I was expecting 1 million ballots a day by now approaching 2 million a day by Monday.  Turnout is still high but I expected it to explode a bit more given how many states are now open for voting.

Some people may vote in person. There is also the issue of how much can mail can be delivered and processed

[Non Swing Voter]

While I am happy with the turnout so far, I feel like the trend is slowing down a bit.  Maybe I'm overanalyzing, but I was expecting 1 million ballots a day by now approaching 2 million a day by Monday.  Turnout is still high but I expected it to explode a bit more given how many states are now open for voting.

Some people may vote in person. There is also the issue of how much can mail can be delivered and processed

True but it's plateauing a bit in states where early voting is already prevalent, like Virginia.  I guess it might pick up again as we get closer to the election though.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/sbauerAP/status/1314261190827274245

[Bootes Void]

https://twitter.com/sbauerAP/status/1314261190827274245

So is this good or bad and what does this mean?

[kph14]

https://twitter.com/sbauerAP/status/1314261190827274245

So is this good or bad and what does this mean?

This means that ballots have to arrive on Election Night as prescribed by state law. In district court a judge had extended that by 6 days but that ruling did not stand on appeal

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/sbauerAP/status/1314261190827274245

So is this good or bad and what does this mean?

This means that ballots have to arrive on Election Night as prescribed by state law. In district court a judge had extended that by 6 days but that ruling did not stand on appeal

Yeah, not good, but it's what we expected.

[Non Swing Voter]

could this backfire because the Democrats have been turning them in quickly whereas the GOP has a lot of outstanding ballots?

[Dr. Arch]

could this backfire because the Democrats have been turning them in quickly whereas the GOP has a lot of outstanding ballots?

It wouldn't be the first or even second time recently that WI Republicans have kneecapped themselves in an attempt to suppress the Democrat's chances of winning.

[Ferguson97]

could this backfire because the Democrats have been turning them in quickly whereas the GOP has a lot of outstanding ballots?

If they do, it's proof that karma exists

[Non Swing Voter]

could this backfire because the Democrats have been turning them in quickly whereas the GOP has a lot of outstanding ballots?

If they do, it's proof that karma exists

I think Karma was proven to exist the day Trump got covid...

[Non Swing Voter]

could this backfire because the Democrats have been turning them in quickly whereas the GOP has a lot of outstanding ballots?

It wouldn't be the first or even second time recently that WI Republicans have kneecapped themselves in an attempt to suppress the Democrat's chances of winning.

do we still think Democrats have an advantage in WI given the turnout in Dane and Milwaukee so far?

[Bootes Void]

could this backfire because the Democrats have been turning them in quickly whereas the GOP has a lot of outstanding ballots?

It wouldn't be the first or even second time recently that WI Republicans have kneecapped themselves in an attempt to suppress the Democrat's chances of winning.

do we still think Democrats have an advantage in WI given the turnout in Dane and Milwaukee so far?

Yup Dems are returning their ballots in a higher rate with stronger turnout from Dane and other blue counties

[Non Swing Voter]

could this backfire because the Democrats have been turning them in quickly whereas the GOP has a lot of outstanding ballots?

It wouldn't be the first or even second time recently that WI Republicans have kneecapped themselves in an attempt to suppress the Democrat's chances of winning.

do we still think Democrats have an advantage in WI given the turnout in Dane and Milwaukee so far?

Yup Dems are returning their ballots in a higher rate with stronger turnout from Dane and other blue counties

Great.  If Biden can put away this state I think that would be a big big deal.

[Rep Jessica]

I am going to guess that If the democrats have at least a 20% lead in early-in person/mail votes in Florida once it totals over 5 million, they'll likely be able to win the state. It would be unimaginable to think that republicans can catch up with the other half of the vote on election day. There's over 5.5 million votes out too so it is possible we will get there.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17YKazYaUMZ33vmd4YHDKcVdlTkP5DmnHQQlAttwOzL0/edit#gid=1837208868

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/FL.html

[Non Swing Voter]

I am going to guess that If the democrats have at least a 20% lead in early-in person/mail votes in Florida once it totals over 5 million, they'll likely be able to win the state. It would be unimaginable to think that republicans can catch up with the other half of the vote on election day. There's over 5.5 million votes out too so it is possible we will get there.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17YKazYaUMZ33vmd4YHDKcVdlTkP5DmnHQQlAttwOzL0/edit#gid=1837208868

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/FL.html

So in other words you think Dems need a 1 million vote lead before Election Day to guarantee victory?

[Gass3268]

could this backfire because the Democrats have been turning them in quickly whereas the GOP has a lot of outstanding ballots?

It wouldn't be the first or even second time recently that WI Republicans have kneecapped themselves in an attempt to suppress the Democrat's chances of winning.

The state party and others have been amazing this cycle at getting information out to the public. If this holds at the Supreme Court, which I imagine it will, there will be a big push in the last 1-2 weeks for folks to not mail in their ballots, but drop them off.

[Non Swing Voter]

could this backfire because the Democrats have been turning them in quickly whereas the GOP has a lot of outstanding ballots?

It wouldn't be the first or even second time recently that WI Republicans have kneecapped themselves in an attempt to suppress the Democrat's chances of winning.

The state party and others have been amazing this cycle at getting information out to the public. If this holds at the Supreme Court, which I imagine it will, there will be a big push in the last 1-2 weeks for folks to not mail in their ballots, but drop them off.

I feel like Republicans are playing the voter suppression game under the assumption that the GOP is still the party of 20 years ago when UMC college educated people voted for them.  I don't know that these tactics are going to work now that they're the party of Trump.  Lets be honest, a lot of his supporters are screw ups who enjoy his rallies but aren't exactly on top of election laws and timelines.