Super Tuesday Results Thread

[Gass3268]

How often is CA going to update? They haven't pushed an update since this morning

Varies by county, some like to do daily updates in the afternoon/evening (usually the bigger counties), some will only update all their outstanding in one large batch. Usually county websites (again particularly larger counties) will announce reporting schedules. Orange County will post new results at 5 pm PST for example.

By the end of the week we should have a statewide report of the number of ballots in each county left to county.

[Gass3268]

The California exit poll has been readjusted:

Sanders 35 (-3)
Biden 24 (+1)
Bloomberg 14 (+2)
Warren 13 (-2)

[Gass3268]

The Green Papers estimate for Sanders net delegates gain is 59. This is with neither Bloomberg or Warren making the 15% threshold. If Bloomberg gets to 15% that number will drop.

[Gass3268]

This is my bi-yearly reminder that the way California counts its votes is a disgrace.  Every year I hear the excuse that "its a really big state so it takes longer", which has no bearing on their ability to count votes.

The alternative is Florida, and given how 2018 Broward went...that doesn't seem a good difference.

Let the state take its time and get the results correct, rather than become another one of those states with irregularities and controversies.

That's not really the only alternative.. You don't need a full month to count the votes correctly.  Somehow Virginia managed to count pretty much 100% of the vote in a matter of hours, and I don't hear of any issues there.  Let the state take its time, sure..  California had a full day today and went from 54% to 58%.  There's a happy medium between rushing the count and this.

Virginia is largely Election Day only [which is partially why I sat out of 2013]. California has one of the longest early-voting periods, combined with lots of perma-absentee ballots [as yours truly has voted]. These things do make a difference, along with size.

Then thats part of the problem too.  We have an election day for a reason.  Unless you're disabled, go to the polls.  This country allows everyone to be so coddled.  No other nation needs to go through these ridiculous hoops to get people to vote.  And they still vote at much lower levels than other western nations.

Allowing everyone to easily vote is more important than speed. The eventual goal in the United States should be universal vote by mail like Colorado and Washington.

[Gass3268]

This is my bi-yearly reminder that the way California counts its votes is a disgrace.  Every year I hear the excuse that "its a really big state so it takes longer", which has no bearing on their ability to count votes.

The alternative is Florida, and given how 2018 Broward went...that doesn't seem a good difference.

Let the state take its time and get the results correct, rather than become another one of those states with irregularities and controversies.

That's not really the only alternative.. You don't need a full month to count the votes correctly.  Somehow Virginia managed to count pretty much 100% of the vote in a matter of hours, and I don't hear of any issues there.  Let the state take its time, sure..  California had a full day today and went from 54% to 58%.  There's a happy medium between rushing the count and this.

Virginia is largely Election Day only [which is partially why I sat out of 2013]. California has one of the longest early-voting periods, combined with lots of perma-absentee ballots [as yours truly has voted]. These things do make a difference, along with size.

Then thats part of the problem too.  We have an election day for a reason.  Unless you're disabled, go to the polls.  This country allows everyone to be so coddled.  No other nation needs to go through these ridiculous hoops to get people to vote.  And they still vote at much lower levels than other western nations.

Allowing everyone to easily vote is more important than speed. The eventual goal in the United States should be universal vote by mail like Colorado and Washington.

Everyone is already able to easily vote.  If you have a disability that prevents you from going outside, vote absentee.  Otherwise, go to a polling station like everyone else in the world.  

Can you imagine if this BS played out every other November on Election Night?

Hypothetical national popular vote election:

"Right now, Smith is ahead of Jones by 13000 votes. This has come down 200000 since Election Day 3 weeks ago. Tomorrow is Thanksgiving and government offices will be closed, but we'll be back on Monday as the nation and the world awaits outside California county election board offices with baited breath to see if this 13000 vote difference will be overcome. We should hopefully get a result before Christmas."

I don't see the problem, as long as the state and counties communicate their process. Paticence is a virtue.

[Gass3268]

This is my bi-yearly reminder that the way California counts its votes is a disgrace.  Every year I hear the excuse that "its a really big state so it takes longer", which has no bearing on their ability to count votes.

The alternative is Florida, and given how 2018 Broward went...that doesn't seem a good difference.

Let the state take its time and get the results correct, rather than become another one of those states with irregularities and controversies.

That's not really the only alternative.. You don't need a full month to count the votes correctly.  Somehow Virginia managed to count pretty much 100% of the vote in a matter of hours, and I don't hear of any issues there.  Let the state take its time, sure..  California had a full day today and went from 54% to 58%.  There's a happy medium between rushing the count and this.

Virginia is largely Election Day only [which is partially why I sat out of 2013]. California has one of the longest early-voting periods, combined with lots of perma-absentee ballots [as yours truly has voted]. These things do make a difference, along with size.

Then thats part of the problem too.  We have an election day for a reason.  Unless you're disabled, go to the polls.  This country allows everyone to be so coddled.  No other nation needs to go through these ridiculous hoops to get people to vote.  And they still vote at much lower levels than other western nations.

Allowing everyone to easily vote is more important than speed. The eventual goal in the United States should be universal vote by mail like Colorado and Washington.

Everyone is already able to easily vote.  If you have a disability that prevents you from going outside, vote absentee.  Otherwise, go to a polling station like everyone else in the world.  

Can you imagine if this BS played out every other November on Election Night?

Hypothetical national popular vote election:

"Right now, Smith is ahead of Jones by 13000 votes. This has come down 200000 since Election Day 3 weeks ago. Tomorrow is Thanksgiving and government offices will be closed, but we'll be back on Monday as the nation and the world awaits outside California county election board offices with baited breath to see if this 13000 vote difference will be overcome. We should hopefully get a result before Christmas."

I don't see the problem, as long as the state and counties communicate their process. Paticence is a virtue.

I'm going to review yours and others' post history that defend this practice to see what the reaction was to the delay in counting the votes of the Iowa caucuses.

The problem with Iowa was their incompetence. They had no idea what they were going to do if things didn't work perfectly. Also there is a big difference between counting 175K votes to over 6 million votes.

[Gass3268]

Gass3268 described the Iowa caucuses having 100% reporting 72 HOURS LATER as: "100% in! Is the nightmare finally over?

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=357331.msg7166462#msg7166462

So we have it established based on your own post that full results taking 72 hours is a nightmare. What does that make results that take 30 days to get full results? The ninth circle of hell?

You didn't even read my respose. Sad!

[Gass3268]

Gass3268 described the Iowa caucuses having 100% reporting 72 HOURS LATER as: "100% in! Is the nightmare finally over?

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=357331.msg7166462#msg7166462

So we have it established based on your own post that full results taking 72 hours is a nightmare. What does that make results that take 30 days to get full results? The ninth circle of hell?

You didn't even read my respose. Sad!

I did. California taking weeks to count results I established earlier in the thread as likewise incompetence, and also poor government. Post at 3 hours, 20 minutes ago from time of this post.

Again, allowing more people to vote and making it easier to vote is more important that counting fast. As long as they inform the public of what their process is and provide daily updates, there is no issue.

[Gass3268]

Probably over 1 million votes left to count in Los Angeles County.

https://twitter.com/BryanRAnderson/status/1235740347113680896?s=20

[Gass3268]

Anyone have estimates for what the final CA numbers will look like?

In the past they have had turnout numbers by the end of the week.

[Gass3268]

California Estimated Unprocessed Ballots Report

There are still more ballots that will be coming and they will be counted as long as they are postmarked on Tuesday.

[Gass3268]

Meanwhile let's hit the South Bay once again, largest POP CENTER within METRO NorCAL....

Santa Clara County:

We have a couple post election Night Updates

951,292   TOT Registered Voters:

2012 GE: (53-45 Obama)
2016 GE: (56-37 HRC)

What? No. 2012 was 69-27 Obama and 2016 was 73-21 Clinton in Santa Clara county.

Pretty sure those are the primary numbers.

[Gass3268]

Something I haven't seen pointed out: For all the talk of Bernie's weakness with black voters, his support either held fairly constant or increased from 2016 in most black counties, but it cratered in white areas, in both northern educated suburbs and WWC areas. That's what's done him in far more than his weakness with black voters.

Yup.  He was always going to lose black voters but his policies are toxic in the suburbs democrats need to win.  It's also a reflection that the Democratic Party has moderated under Trump, simply because so many right leaning voters have left the Republican Party and are voting for Democrats now (moderate ones).

Maybe in some ways, but the 2016 platform was arguably the most Progressive Platform ever and a lot of Sanders 2016 proposals that were considered crazy have become middle of the road positions by even the most moderate member of the party.

[Gass3268]

I assume it's pretty sure that Sanders won't come anywhere close the 15-point margin of victory the exit polls showed.

Data for Progress’ poll having a margin of Sanders +8 seems more realistic.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1236095148267798528?s=20

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1237101140606464001?s=20

That's Anna Eshoo's district, which includes the cities of Redwood City, Sunnyvale, Mountain View, and Palo Alto, as well as part of San Jose

[Gass3268]

The voting process in California is a national embarrassment. Virginia figured it out in 2 hours. Come up with a process than fairly enfranchises everyone and reports the numbers before the season changes.

I'm sorry you hate a system that allows millions of people to vote early by mail and takes some time for the ballots to come in and be counted. The fact that you think California's voting system is disenfranchising.... embarassing.

It's inexcusable how long it's take to count all the ballots here. They obviously need to find a way to do this faster. Also the ballot harvesting that's done is very illegal everywhere else. I don't know how you can be ok with political parties going around to people's houses and gathering ballots that were not cast yet. People were given plenty of time to vote this should not be necessary. If you're ballot isn't returned by election day it should not count.

You say ballot harvesting, I call it GOTV.

[Gass3268]

Why do you care so much about the margin in CA? The primary is de facto over, Biden isn't going to win the state and the raw numbers aren't dropping.

It's Atlas... It's what we do.