Super Tuesday Results Thread

[DINGO Joe]

Major Cali counties that I think will flip from Bernie to Biden as votes are tallied:

Contra Costa
Ventura
Riverside
San Diego
San Mateo  (a bit of a longshot)

Roughly in the order of likelihood to flip

San Joaquin and El Dorado also look likely with Kern a little more borderline.

[Holmes]

Meanwhile let's hit the South Bay once again, largest POP CENTER within METRO NorCAL....

Santa Clara County:

We have a couple post election Night Updates

951,292   TOT Registered Voters:

2012 GE: (53-45 Obama)
2016 GE: (56-37 HRC)

What? No. 2012 was 69-27 Obama and 2016 was 73-21 Clinton in Santa Clara county.

Pretty sure those are the primary numbers.

It looks like San Diego County

Yup, looks like an honest mistake. No way a Bay Area county would give such underwhelming numbers for Democrats.

[Green Line]

Maybe by the convention we will have all of California's votes reported.

[n1240]

Major Cali counties that I think will flip from Bernie to Biden as votes are tallied:

Contra Costa
Ventura
Riverside
San Diego
San Mateo  (a bit of a longshot)

Roughly in the order of likelihood to flip

San Joaquin and El Dorado also look likely with Kern a little more borderline.

On the topic - my guess of what CDs could flip (numerical order):

CA-03 (D-Garamendi, Sacramento area, likely flip)
CA-04 (R-McClintock, east of Sacramento, should flip)
CA-08 (R-Cook, eastern desert, possibly flip)
CA-10 (D-Harder, San Joaquin Valley, possible flip
CA-11 (D-DeSaulnier, most of Contra Costa county, should flip)
CA-15 (D-Swalwell, Alameda/Contra Costa, likely flip)
CA-18 (D-Eshoo, wealthy south Bay Area suburbs, likely flip)
CA-23 (R-McCarthy, Bakersfield, should flip)
CA-25 (Formerly D-Hill, north LA, likely flip)
CA-26 (D-Brownley, most of Ventura county, possible flip)
CA-30 (D-Sherman, west LA county, east Ventura, should flip)
CA-31 (D-Aguilar, San Bernardino, longshot flip)
CA-37 (D-Bass, west downtown LA, possible flip)
CA-39 (D-Cisneros, Fullerton, Anaheim, surrounding areas, longshot flip)
CA-42 (R-Calvert, Riverside, possible flip)
CA-43 (D-Waters, south LA, likely flip)
CA-48 (D-Rouda, coastal Orange County, likely flip)
CA-50 (Formerly R-Hunter, suburban San Diego, possible flip)
CA-53 (D-Davis, central/eastern San Diego, longshot flip)

For reference, Biden led in CA-33 and CA-52 and no other districts after election night. Since election night he has taken the lead in CA-49, CA-36, and CA-09. He's also viable in every congressional district.

[RI]

Something I haven't seen pointed out: For all the talk of Bernie's weakness with black voters, his support either held fairly constant or increased from 2016 in most black counties, but it cratered in white areas, in both northern educated suburbs and WWC areas. That's what's done him in far more than his weakness with black voters.

[n1240]

Having looked through and inputting results from multiple states, I've noticed the name "Roque De La Fuente" popping up in Democratic primary results. Turns out this Roque is the son of the other serial candidate Roque De La Fuente who ran in multiple 2018 senate primaries, is currently running in the 2020 Republican presidential primary, and was the Reform Party candidate in 2016.

The elder Roque also ran in the CA-21 primary against David Valadao and TJ Cox, along with his other son, Ricardo De La Fuente. Ricardo De La Fuente also ran in the TX-27 primary and actually managed to win the nomination and will be the Democratic nominee for that seat in November. Ricardo does not live in either CA-21 or TX-27. TX-27 is R+13 and was won without a runoff by Michael Cloud in the 2018 special election but it'll be interesting to see how he does in the general election.

[Non Swing Voter]

Something I haven't seen pointed out: For all the talk of Bernie's weakness with black voters, his support either held fairly constant or increased from 2016 in most black counties, but it cratered in white areas, in both northern educated suburbs and WWC areas. That's what's done him in far more than his weakness with black voters.

Yup.  He was always going to lose black voters but his policies are toxic in the suburbs democrats need to win.  It's also a reflection that the Democratic Party has moderated under Trump, simply because so many right leaning voters have left the Republican Party and are voting for Democrats now (moderate ones).

[Gass3268]

Something I haven't seen pointed out: For all the talk of Bernie's weakness with black voters, his support either held fairly constant or increased from 2016 in most black counties, but it cratered in white areas, in both northern educated suburbs and WWC areas. That's what's done him in far more than his weakness with black voters.

Yup.  He was always going to lose black voters but his policies are toxic in the suburbs democrats need to win.  It's also a reflection that the Democratic Party has moderated under Trump, simply because so many right leaning voters have left the Republican Party and are voting for Democrats now (moderate ones).

Maybe in some ways, but the 2016 platform was arguably the most Progressive Platform ever and a lot of Sanders 2016 proposals that were considered crazy have become middle of the road positions by even the most moderate member of the party.

[2016]

Can someone access the Utah Elections Website from the SoS Office. They seem to have vastly different sets of Numbers compared to the AP + Networks.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Something I haven't seen pointed out: For all the talk of Bernie's weakness with black voters, his support either held fairly constant or increased from 2016 in most black counties, but it cratered in white areas, in both northern educated suburbs and WWC areas. That's what's done him in far more than his weakness with black voters.

Yup.  He was always going to lose black voters but his policies are toxic in the suburbs democrats need to win.  It's also a reflection that the Democratic Party has moderated under Trump, simply because so many right leaning voters have left the Republican Party and are voting for Democrats now (moderate ones).

Maybe in some ways, but the 2016 platform was arguably the most Progressive Platform ever and a lot of Sanders 2016 proposals that were considered crazy have become middle of the road positions by even the most moderate member of the party.

Yeah, I actually think that the party has moved left and those new moderate voters either are ambivalent to those policies or have grown to favor them in the face of Trump. If you look at exit polls Medicare-for-All generally polls pretty positively even as Sanders is rejected by the voters in some of those states that were polled. Those voters potentially hold progressive values but just don't seem to think that Sanders is the best person to deliver on them and the other goals they want a candidate or President to pursue. Sanders needs to stop being conflated as the end-all, be-all of progressive politics in this country. Isn't the concept of progress supposed to be about the ideas and policies and not as much about idolizing a figure (*Cough* "Not me. Us." *Cough*)?

[RI]

Something I haven't seen pointed out: For all the talk of Bernie's weakness with black voters, his support either held fairly constant or increased from 2016 in most black counties, but it cratered in white areas, in both northern educated suburbs and WWC areas. That's what's done him in far more than his weakness with black voters.

Yup.  He was always going to lose black voters but his policies are toxic in the suburbs democrats need to win.  It's also a reflection that the Democratic Party has moderated under Trump, simply because so many right leaning voters have left the Republican Party and are voting for Democrats now (moderate ones).

Maybe in some ways, but the 2016 platform was arguably the most Progressive Platform ever and a lot of Sanders 2016 proposals that were considered crazy have become middle of the road positions by even the most moderate member of the party.

Yeah, I actually think that the party has moved left and those new moderate voters either are ambivalent to those policies or have grown to favor them in the face of Trump. If you look at exit polls Medicare-for-All generally polls pretty positively even as Sanders is rejected by the voters in some of those states that were polled. Those voters potentially hold progressive values but just don't seem to think that Sanders is the best person to deliver on them and the other goals they want a candidate or President to pursue. Sanders needs to stop being conflated as the end-all, be-all of progressive politics in this country. Isn't the concept of progress supposed to be about the ideas and policies and not as much about idolizing a figure (*Cough* "Not me. Us." *Cough*)?

Those polls don't mean what you think they mean.

[OSR stands with Israel]

How many of Bernie's 2016 support though came more due to the anti-Hillary factor rather than people actually liking Bernie. I think much of his WWC support was a lot in factor because people just didnt like Hillary.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Something I haven't seen pointed out: For all the talk of Bernie's weakness with black voters, his support either held fairly constant or increased from 2016 in most black counties, but it cratered in white areas, in both northern educated suburbs and WWC areas. That's what's done him in far more than his weakness with black voters.

Yup.  He was always going to lose black voters but his policies are toxic in the suburbs democrats need to win.  It's also a reflection that the Democratic Party has moderated under Trump, simply because so many right leaning voters have left the Republican Party and are voting for Democrats now (moderate ones).

Maybe in some ways, but the 2016 platform was arguably the most Progressive Platform ever and a lot of Sanders 2016 proposals that were considered crazy have become middle of the road positions by even the most moderate member of the party.

Yeah, I actually think that the party has moved left and those new moderate voters either are ambivalent to those policies or have grown to favor them in the face of Trump. If you look at exit polls Medicare-for-All generally polls pretty positively even as Sanders is rejected by the voters in some of those states that were polled. Those voters potentially hold progressive values but just don't seem to think that Sanders is the best person to deliver on them and the other goals they want a candidate or President to pursue. Sanders needs to stop being conflated as the end-all, be-all of progressive politics in this country. Isn't the concept of progress supposed to be about the ideas and policies and not as much about idolizing a figure (*Cough* "Not me. Us." *Cough*)?

Those polls don't mean what you think they mean.

Probably not, but it's the best we have to go off when it comes to ideology. If anything has been clear by this primary it's that ideology isn't as much of a priority as we think. Not all Warren voters had Sanders as their second choice, and not all Klobuchar voters had Biden as theirs. The truth is messier than that.

How many of Bernie's 2016 support though came more due to the anti-Hillary factor rather than people actually liking Bernie. I think much of his WWC support was a lot in factor because people just didnt like Hillary.

And yes, this has become more apparent than ever. The amount of caucuses that were present in 2016 too has contributed to the idea of Sanders' support being bigger than it was, and currently is.

[n1240]

Can someone access the Utah Elections Website from the SoS Office. They seem to have vastly different sets of Numbers compared to the AP + Networks.

Main discrepancy is due to a new batch from SLC, usually the SLC website updates but they didn't seem to update today, but new ballots are added from there on the LT Gov site.

https://electionresults.utah.gov/elections/countyCount/401420711

Also a few from Utah county that Edison results don't seem to have

[2016]

Sanders seems to have also gained in LA County, CA compared to yesterday. He leads Biden over 100K which will push his lead Statewide to 280K over Biden.

Bernie needs a 300K Plurality out of CA to claim this is a good win.

[2016]

Can someone access the Utah Elections Website from the SoS Office. They seem to have vastly different sets of Numbers compared to the AP + Networks.

Main discrepancy is due to a new batch from SLC, usually the SLC website updates but they didn't seem to update today, but new ballots are added from there on the LT Gov site.

https://electionresults.utah.gov/elections/countyCount/401420711

Also a few from Utah county that Edison results don't seem to have

Thanks. I can't connect to the UT LT Gov Site. Could you post the Statewide Numbers please?

[NOVA Green]

Meanwhile let's hit the South Bay once again, largest POP CENTER within METRO NorCAL....

Santa Clara County:

We have a couple post election Night Updates

951,292   TOT Registered Voters:

2012 GE: (53-45 Obama)
2016 GE: (56-37 HRC)

What? No. 2012 was 69-27 Obama and 2016 was 73-21 Clinton in Santa Clara county.

Pretty sure those are the primary numbers.

It looks like San Diego County

Yup, looks like an honest mistake. No way a Bay Area county would give such underwhelming numbers for Democrats.

MY apologies... thanks all for the catch...

That's what I get for trying to copy & paste effectively as a template w/o double-checking.

[Landslide Lyndon]

How many of Bernie's 2016 support though came more due to the anti-Hillary factor rather than people actually liking Bernie. I think much of his WWC support was a lot in factor because people just didnt like Hillary.

That was obvious to anyone with half a brain, and hopefully will put to rest the silliness about Sanders making West Virginia and Oklahoma competitive because he carried them in 2016.

[n1240]

Can someone access the Utah Elections Website from the SoS Office. They seem to have vastly different sets of Numbers compared to the AP + Networks.

Main discrepancy is due to a new batch from SLC, usually the SLC website updates but they didn't seem to update today, but new ballots are added from there on the LT Gov site.

https://electionresults.utah.gov/elections/countyCount/401420711

Also a few from Utah county that Edison results don't seem to have

Thanks. I can't connect to the UT LT Gov Site. Could you post the Statewide Numbers please?

BERNIE SANDERS   DEMOCRATIC   35.25%   74303
JOSEPH R. BIDEN   DEMOCRATIC   18.47%   38923
ELIZABETH WARREN   DEMOCRATIC   16.30%   34352
MICHAEL R. BLOOMBERG   DEMOCRATIC   15.76%   33212
PETE BUTTIGIEG   DEMOCRATIC   08.79%   18533
AMY KLOBUCHAR   DEMOCRATIC   03.56%   7510

[n1240]

Contra Costa County flipped from Sanders up .3% to Biden up 3%.

California Statewide MOV is currently about 7.56%.

[2016]

Contra Costa County flipped from Sanders up .3% to Biden up 3%.

California Statewide MOV is currently about 7.56%.

The Votes Biden gets from there he loses in LA.

[n1240]

Major Cali counties that I think will flip from Bernie to Biden as votes are tallied:

Contra Costa
Ventura
Riverside
San Diego
San Mateo  (a bit of a longshot)

Roughly in the order of likelihood to flip

San Joaquin and El Dorado also look likely with Kern a little more borderline.

Not even sure if the San Mateo prediction is that much of a longshot - Biden won the most recent vote dump with 6899 votes over Sanders' 4659 votes. The countywide margin of victory for Sanders has halved since election night (down to about 3.5% now)

Contra Costa County flipped from Sanders up .3% to Biden up 3%.

California Statewide MOV is currently about 7.56%.

The Votes Biden gets from there he loses in LA.

At this rate there definitely isn't any chance Biden somehow takes the lead in California, but at the current rate the margin is still set to shrink a reasonable amount.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I assume it's pretty sure that Sanders won't come anywhere close the 15-point margin of victory the exit polls showed.

[Gass3268]

I assume it's pretty sure that Sanders won't come anywhere close the 15-point margin of victory the exit polls showed.

Data for Progress’ poll having a margin of Sanders +8 seems more realistic.

[NOVA Green]

ORANGE COUNTY VOTE DUMP:

1,633,966  TOT Registered Voters:

2012 GE: (52-46 Trump)   1.122k TV
2016 GE: (51-42 HRC)      1.198 TV

2016 DEM PRIM: (331k DEM PRIM Voters)

(52%-47% HRC vs Sanders)


ORANGE COUNTY VOTE DUMP:

Election Night: (222.1k DEM PRIM VOTES)

Bernie:               80,059 (36.1%)
Biden:                54,478 (24.5%)
Bloomberg:         34,595 (15.6%)
Warren:              21,366 ( 9.6%)
Pete:                  13,755 ( 6.2%)
Amy:                    6,819 ( 3.1%)
Others:               10,982 ( 4.6%)

*Others--- Tend to be heavily Steyer, Tulsi, & Yang

3/4/20   ORANGE COUNTY UPDATE      232.7k Votes     (+10.6k Votes ED> 3/4)

Bernie:              83,236  (35.8%)           + 3,177 Votes (-0.3%)
Biden:               57,078  (24.5%)           + 2,600 Votes (+0.0%)
Bloomberg:       36,310   (15.6%)           + 1,715 Votes (+0.0%)
Warren:            22,671   ( 9.7%)            + 1,305 Votes (+ 0.1%)
Pete:                14,677   ( 6.3%)            +   922 Votes  (+ 0.1%)
Amy:                 7,225    (3.1 %)            +   406 Votes  (+0.0%)
Others:            11,849    (5.0%)             +   867 Votes  (+0.4%)

3/5/20 UPDATE         246.2k Votes   (+13.5k from 3/4) ,   +  (24.1k from ED)

Bernie:              86,885  (35.3%)           + 3,649 from 3/4  (-0.5%) from 3/4   (-1.1%) from ED
Biden:               61,845  (25.1%)           + 4,767 from 3/4  (+0.6%)  from 3/4 (+0.6%) from ED
Bloomberg:       38,281   (15.5%)           + 1.971 from 3/4 (-0.1%)   from 3/4 (-0.1%)   from ED
Warren:            24,244   ( 9.8%)            + 1,573 from 3/4 (+0.1%)  from 3/4  (+0.2%) from ED
Pete:                15,385   ( 6.2%)            +   708  from 3/4  (-0.1%)  from 3/4  (+0%) from ED
Amy:                 7,590    (3.1 %)            +   365 from 3/4  (+0.0%) from 3/4  (+0%) from ED
Others:            11,965    (4.9%)             +   116 from 3/4  (-0.1%)  from 3/4  (+0.3%) from ED

3/6/20 UPDATE       267.4k Votes     (+21.1k Votes 3/5>3/6)

Bernie:              93,641  (35.0%)           + 6,756 from 3/5  (-0.3%) from 3/5   (-0.8%) from ED
Biden:               69,041  (25.8%)           + 7,196 from 3/5  (+0.7%)  from 3/5 (+1.3%) from ED
Bloomberg:       41,193   (15.4%)           + 2,912 from 3/5 (-0.1%)   from 3/5  (-0.2%)  from ED
Warren:            26,670   (10.0%)            + 2,426 from 3/5 (+0.2%)  from 3/5  (+0.4%) from ED
Pete:                16,222   (6.1%)             +   837 from 3/5  (-0.1%)  from 3/5  (-0.2%) from ED
Amy:                 8,019    (3.0%)            +   429 from 3/5  (-0.1%)  from 3/5  (-0.1%) from ED
Others:            12,576    (4.7%)             +  611 from 3/5  (-0.2%)  from 3/5  (+0.1%) from ED

So what does this mean?

It appears that we are starting to pass the corner in terms of the post IA/NH/NV numbers when it comes to absentee ballots in Orange County....

The decline of "Others" tends to correlate with a drop in Steyer voters, and plus Amy & Pete numbers are continuing to drop a bit...


The inclusion of Election Day In-Person ballots muddies the waters a bit, since without delving into the weeds, makes it a bit harder to draw correlations between waves of votes and when they were actually cast....

*IF*, I had to hazard a guess, I suspect that we are starting to turn the corner in terms of post SC absentees, which may well account for what was a pretty decent Biden batch today...

Now, again we don't really have a handle on the '20 DEM TO Model in OC this election cycle....

It is entirely plausible that in a State where DJT is not particularly popular (Hell HRC beat him handily in the '16 GE), that TO in the DEM PRIM will be much higher, and that additionally many Romney > HRC '16 Voters that are registered NPP wanted to protect their gains...

Currently were are an estimated total 177k TOTAL ballots outstanding in OC (Excluding Provisional Ballots)....

Now, I don't have the exact numbers at my fingertips, but off the top of my head from doing the same thing back in the '16 CA DEM PRIM, provisional ballots heavily favored Sanders > Clinton (In OC as well as throughout California)....

We might have a better idea of what is actually going on here once we start to get final provisional ballot numbers from the larger Counties, but at this point it is doubtful that Bloomberg will get viability in most CD's within OC based upon what we have seen before....

EDIT: Anybody that wants to play with OC precinct data here is a link to the main site, and then click on Reports in the Upper Right and then you can "grab" the data in an Excel File format run some sort of pivot table and then match up against precinct data to see where the votes are coming in from thus far.... (Haven't gone to the trouble myself yet, but figure it shouldn't be too hard for one of y'all to start to break down OC by Municipality and then throw some numbers together against demographics, maybe even some GiS precinct data to get us a good map...

https://www.ocvote.com/vc/web/results/current-election-results