Super Tuesday Results Thread

[NOVA Green]

ORANGE COUNTY VOTE DUMP:

Election Night: (236,601 DEM PRIM VOTES)

Bernie:               80,059 (36.1%)
Biden:                54,478 (24.5%)
Bloomberg:         34,595 (15.6%)
Warren:              21,366 ( 9.6%)
Pete:                  13,755 ( 6.2%)
Amy:                    6,819 ( 3.1%)
Others:               10,982 ( 4.6%)

*Others--- Tend to be heavily Steyer, Tulsi, & Yang

3/4/20   ORANGE COUNTY UPDATE

Bernie:              83,236  (35.8%)           + 3,177 Votes (-0.3%)
Biden:               57,078  (24.5%)           + 2,600 Votes (+0.0%)
Bloomberg:       36,310   (15.6%)           + 1,715 Votes (+0.0%)
Warren:            22,671   ( 9.7%)            + 1,305 Votes (+ 0.1%)
Pete:                14,677   ( 6.3%)            +   922 Votes  (+ 0.1%)
Amy:                 7,225    (3.1 %)            +   406 Votes  (+0.0%)
Others:            11,849    (5.0%)             +   867 Votes  (+0.4%)                   

Note: Numbers might be slightly off due to rounding....

[GeneralMacArthur]

Also one last thing: what the f*** was up with American Samoa voting for Bloomberg? Has anybody come up with an explanation for that!?

He had 7 campaign staffers there.  Whatever you may think of the man himself, his determination to compete hard and compete everywhere is commendable, and it's a great operation for Biden to inherit.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Also one last thing: what the f*** was up with American Samoa voting for Bloomberg? Has anybody come up with an explanation for that!?

He had 7 campaign staffers there.  Whatever you may think of the man himself, his determination to compete hard and compete everywhere is commendable, and it's a great operation for Biden to inherit.

As little as I care for Bloomberg, I do very much appreciate that he is willing to be a steadfast ally in the cause of defeating Trump.

[StateBoiler]

Fun fact: it looks like Julian Castro (and to a lesser extent Rocky de la Fuente) got a fair number of votes in the Rio Grande Valley.

Looks like the same is happening in Imperial County, CA.

Buttigieg according to The Green Papers actually has a delegate from California based on results so far.

[n1240]

Fun fact: it looks like Julian Castro (and to a lesser extent Rocky de la Fuente) got a fair number of votes in the Rio Grande Valley.

Looks like the same is happening in Imperial County, CA.

Buttigieg according to The Green Papers actually has a delegate from California based on results so far.

He's at 16.1% in CA-36 but that almost certainly won't hold

[NOVA Green]

So while we are waiting for California to count their votes, and publish their estimates of actual ballots yet to be counted by county I thought I would at least review some numbers to see what all might be out there....

So obviously the relocation of the California Primary in '20 to Super Tuesday, instead of being practically the last State to vote, has complicated matters a bit, especially in a multi-candidate contest...

For those few of you not aware, California traditionally since it moved towards a more heavily Vote-by-Mail (VbM) state, traditionally has (4) main categories of voting:

1.) "Early Vote-by-Mail" ballots (Basically the first to be counted)

2.) Election Day In-Person Voting

3.) "Late Vote-by-Mail" ballots  (Ballots mailed by Election Day)

4.) Provisional Ballots---- Basically a means of both protecting the rights of voters, as well as the integrity of the electoral system so that voters can still vote, even if they moved to a different precinct, etc.... These go through a much higher level of scrutiny validating against voter signatures, driver license registration, etc.... These are typically the last to be counted, because of the data validation process involved.

Typically Election Night Returns in California include a mixture of "Early Mail in Ballots" combined with Election same-day in person voting....

Some Counties for various reasons might have better resourcing to include some of the later wave of VbM's in their election night reporting, and some include virtually none....

One method to assess the distribution of the DEM votes between the later votes we expect to see, versus the "early mail in ballot results" would be to look at support for Candidates that have dropped out of the race...

Another method would be to try to use 2016 DEM PRIM numbers as Benchmarks for larger Counties to see how many DEM ballot might still be out there (recognizing that TOT DEM ballots in 2020 might be significantly higher as a result of POP Growth...

These are Final Election Night Numbers only as reported by the California SoS:

Los Angeles County:

2020:   773k DEM Ballots     
2016:  1,435k DEM ballots   

54% of TOT DEM '16 Ballots Counted so far in LA County....

2020 DEM PRIM Results:

Bernie:               291,984   Votes  (37.8%)
Biden:                205,550   Votes  (26.6%)
Bloomberg:          90,559   Votes   (11.7%)
Warren:               93,695   Votes   (12.1%)
Pete:                   31,812   Votes   ( 4.1%)
Amy:                   14,426   Votes   ( 1.9%)
Others:                45,156   Votes   ( 5.8%)

LA County appears to likely include a larger percentage of same day voting than in many other places within California....

Currently the LA County Voting Office estimates that 60% of votes were same day versus 40% VbM.

Needless to say when it comes to CD viability, these numbers do not look good for either Warren nor Bloomberg in the largest County, home to many CDs within Cali...

[n1240]

So while we are waiting for California to count their votes, and publish their estimates of actual ballots yet to be counted by county I thought I would at least review some numbers to see what all might be out there....

So obviously the relocation of the California Primary in '20 to Super Tuesday, instead of being practically the last State to vote, has complicated matters a bit, especially in a multi-candidate contest...

For those few of you not aware, California traditionally since it moved towards a more heavily Vote-by-Mail (VbM) state, traditionally has (4) main categories of voting:

1.) "Early Vote-by-Mail" ballots (Basically the first to be counted)

2.) Election Day In-Person Voting

3.) "Late Vote-by-Mail" ballots  (Ballots mailed by Election Day)

4.) Provisional Ballots---- Basically a means of both protecting the rights of voters, as well as the integrity of the electoral system so that voters can still vote, even if they moved to a different precinct, etc.... These go through a much higher level of scrutiny validating against voter signatures, driver license registration, etc.... These are typically the last to be counted, because of the data validation process involved.

Typically Election Night Returns in California include a mixture of "Early Mail in Ballots" combined with Election same-day in person voting....

Some Counties for various reasons might have better resourcing to include some of the later wave of VbM's in their election night reporting, and some include virtually none....

One method to assess the distribution of the DEM votes between the later votes we expect to see, versus the "early mail in ballot results" would be to look at support for Candidates that have dropped out of the race...

Another method would be to try to use 2016 DEM PRIM numbers as Benchmarks for larger Counties to see how many DEM ballot might still be out there (recognizing that TOT DEM ballots in 2020 might be significantly higher as a result of POP Growth...

These are Final Election Night Numbers only as reported by the California SoS:

Los Angeles County:

2020:   773k DEM Ballots     
2016:  1,435k DEM ballots   

54% of TOT DEM '16 Ballots Counted so far in LA County....

2020 DEM PRIM Results:

Bernie:               291,984   Votes  (37.8%)
Biden:                205,550   Votes  (26.6%)
Bloomberg:          90,559   Votes   (11.7%)
Warren:               93,695   Votes   (12.1%)
Pete:                   31,812   Votes   ( 4.1%)
Amy:                   14,426   Votes   ( 1.9%)
Others:                45,156   Votes   ( 5.8%)

LA County appears to likely include a larger percentage of same day voting than in many other places within California....

Currently the LA County Voting Office estimates that 60% of votes were same day versus 40% VbM.

Needless to say when it comes to CD viability, these numbers do not look good for either Warren nor Bloomberg in the largest County, home to many CDs within Cali...

Updated LA:

Sanders 329108 (38.20%)
Biden 233020 (27.04%)
Warren 105764 (12.27%)
Bloomberg 97276 (11.29%)
Buttigieg 32903 (3.82%)

[vitoNova]

Bernie's ultimate mistake was running against Obama's legacy in 2016.

That is why the blacks never took a liking to him.  

Can you imagine the GOP candidate in 1988 saying that Reagan was a massive disappointment and that Ronnie Raygun should have been primaried in 1984?  Such a candidate would have been shut the hell down.   But liberals are waaaaaay too nice, and they allowed Bernie to run his yap.  

lulz

[NOVA Green]

So while we are waiting for California to count their votes, and publish their estimates of actual ballots yet to be counted by county I thought I would at least review some numbers to see what all might be out there....

So obviously the relocation of the California Primary in '20 to Super Tuesday, instead of being practically the last State to vote, has complicated matters a bit, especially in a multi-candidate contest...

For those few of you not aware, California traditionally since it moved towards a more heavily Vote-by-Mail (VbM) state, traditionally has (4) main categories of voting:

1.) "Early Vote-by-Mail" ballots (Basically the first to be counted)

2.) Election Day In-Person Voting

3.) "Late Vote-by-Mail" ballots  (Ballots mailed by Election Day)

4.) Provisional Ballots---- Basically a means of both protecting the rights of voters, as well as the integrity of the electoral system so that voters can still vote, even if they moved to a different precinct, etc.... These go through a much higher level of scrutiny validating against voter signatures, driver license registration, etc.... These are typically the last to be counted, because of the data validation process involved.

Typically Election Night Returns in California include a mixture of "Early Mail in Ballots" combined with Election same-day in person voting....

Some Counties for various reasons might have better resourcing to include some of the later wave of VbM's in their election night reporting, and some include virtually none....

One method to assess the distribution of the DEM votes between the later votes we expect to see, versus the "early mail in ballot results" would be to look at support for Candidates that have dropped out of the race...

Another method would be to try to use 2016 DEM PRIM numbers as Benchmarks for larger Counties to see how many DEM ballot might still be out there (recognizing that TOT DEM ballots in 2020 might be significantly higher as a result of POP Growth...

These are Final Election Night Numbers only as reported by the California SoS:

Los Angeles County:

2020:   773k DEM Ballots     
2016:  1,435k DEM ballots   

54% of TOT DEM '16 Ballots Counted so far in LA County....

2020 DEM PRIM Results:

Bernie:               291,984   Votes  (37.8%)
Biden:                205,550   Votes  (26.6%)
Bloomberg:          90,559   Votes   (11.7%)
Warren:               93,695   Votes   (12.1%)
Pete:                   31,812   Votes   ( 4.1%)
Amy:                   14,426   Votes   ( 1.9%)
Others:                45,156   Votes   ( 5.8%)

LA County appears to likely include a larger percentage of same day voting than in many other places within California....

Currently the LA County Voting Office estimates that 60% of votes were same day versus 40% VbM.

Needless to say when it comes to CD viability, these numbers do not look good for either Warren nor Bloomberg in the largest County, home to many CDs within Cali...

Updated LA:

Sanders 329108 (38.20%)
Biden 233020 (27.04%)
Warren 105764 (12.27%)
Bloomberg 97276 (11.29%)
Buttigieg 32903 (3.82%)

Thanks for the update.... they hadn't refreshed since I created that post!!!   

[Progressive Pessimist]

Bernie's ultimate mistake was running against Obama's legacy in 2016.

That is why the blacks never took a liking to him.  

Can you imagine the GOP candidate in 1988 saying that Reagan was a massive disappointment and that Ronnie Raygun should have been primaried in 1984?  Such a candidate would have been shut the hell down.   But liberals are waaaaaay too nice, and they allowed Bernie to run his yap.  

lulz

Well, that might be part of it. But really for all the outreach Sanders was doing that earned him the support of Latin voters, whatever he did clearly didn't attract too many new black voters to his camp.

In my understanding of black voters, they put a lot of emphasis on trust. It appears that most just still don't trust Sanders for whatever reason.

[Intell]

Bernie's ultimate mistake was running against Obama's legacy in 2016.

That is why the blacks never took a liking to him.  

Can you imagine the GOP candidate in 1988 saying that Reagan was a massive disappointment and that Ronnie Raygun should have been primaried in 1984?  Such a candidate would have been shut the hell down.   But liberals are waaaaaay too nice, and they allowed Bernie to run his yap.  

lulz

Well, that might be part of it. But really for all the outreach Sanders was doing that earned him the support of Latin voters, whatever he did clearly didn't attract too many new black voters to his camp.

In my understanding of black voters, they put a lot of emphasis on trust. It appears that most just still don't trust Sanders for whatever reason.

Black voters have much more positive opinions of the democratic party and the democratic 'establishment' than latinos, you can see this in down ballot races. The democratic establishment attacks feel like an attack to black leaders in their community.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Bernie's ultimate mistake was running against Obama's legacy in 2016.

That is why the blacks never took a liking to him.  

Can you imagine the GOP candidate in 1988 saying that Reagan was a massive disappointment and that Ronnie Raygun should have been primaried in 1984?  Such a candidate would have been shut the hell down.   But liberals are waaaaaay too nice, and they allowed Bernie to run his yap.  

lulz

Well, that might be part of it. But really for all the outreach Sanders was doing that earned him the support of Latin voters, whatever he did clearly didn't attract too many new black voters to his camp.

In my understanding of black voters, they put a lot of emphasis on trust. It appears that most just still don't trust Sanders for whatever reason.

Black voters have much more positive opinions of the democratic party and the democratic 'establishment' than latinos, you can see this in down ballot races. The democratic establishment attacks feel like an attack to black leaders in their community.

Well that's part of it but also age is probably a major factor too. Latino Americans are younger on average in comparison to black voters. That is at least some of the explanation for the disparity we are seeing regarding which demographic supports which candidate.

[pppolitics]

Bernie's ultimate mistake was running against Obama's legacy in 2016.

That is why the blacks never took a liking to him.  

Can you imagine the GOP candidate in 1988 saying that Reagan was a massive disappointment and that Ronnie Raygun should have been primaried in 1984?  Such a candidate would have been shut the hell down.   But liberals are waaaaaay too nice, and they allowed Bernie to run his yap.  

lulz

Sanders just released an ad featuring Obama:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5gcY2Fhr5wo

...but when asked about it, this is what he said:

“We have worked with President Obama. I’m not going to say he and I are best friends. We talk every now and then”

Sanders is making the same mistake over and over again.

[GoTfan]

Bernie's ultimate mistake was running against Obama's legacy in 2016.

That is why the blacks never took a liking to him.  

Can you imagine the GOP candidate in 1988 saying that Reagan was a massive disappointment and that Ronnie Raygun should have been primaried in 1984?  Such a candidate would have been shut the hell down.   But liberals are waaaaaay too nice, and they allowed Bernie to run his yap.  

lulz

Sanders just released an ad featuring Obama:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5gcY2Fhr5wo

...but when asked about it, this is what he said:

“We have worked with President Obama. I’m not going to say he and I are best friends. We talk every now and then”

Sanders is making the same mistake over and over again.

You'd rather he lie?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

All this is late, Bernie refused to criticize Biden and said he was his friend. Now, at the 11th hr, where he has to sweep almost everything, like in 2016, he spends money on negative ads. Wow.

Then he sends more emails asking for more donations

[pppolitics]

Bernie's ultimate mistake was running against Obama's legacy in 2016.

That is why the blacks never took a liking to him.  

Can you imagine the GOP candidate in 1988 saying that Reagan was a massive disappointment and that Ronnie Raygun should have been primaried in 1984?  Such a candidate would have been shut the hell down.   But liberals are waaaaaay too nice, and they allowed Bernie to run his yap.  

lulz

Sanders just released an ad featuring Obama:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5gcY2Fhr5wo

...but when asked about it, this is what he said:

“We have worked with President Obama. I’m not going to say he and I are best friends. We talk every now and then”

Sanders is making the same mistake over and over again.

You'd rather he lie?

How about using a nicer tone?

"I respect President Obama and am glad to have worked with him over his 8 years of presidency.

Although we achieved X, Y, and Z together, there is still more work to be done."

No one else can claim to be as close to Obama as Biden, but not being anti-Obama would help Sanders a long way.

[NOVA Green]

California Vote Update--- Los Angeles County

TOTAL LA CO REG VOTERS 2020:   5,546,785

2016: 1,435k TOTAL DEM PRIM VOTERS

HRC:        780,013 Votes (54.4%)
Bernie:     639,886 Votes (44.6%)


2020 LA COUNTY ELECTION NIGHT VOTES:

Bernie:               291,984   Votes  (37.8%)
Biden:                205,550   Votes  (26.6%)
Bloomberg:          90,559   Votes   (11.7%)
Warren:               93,695   Votes   (12.1%)
Pete:                   31,812   Votes   ( 4.1%)
Amy:                   14,426   Votes   ( 1.9%)
Others:                45,156   Votes   ( 5.8%)

2020 LA COUNTY 3/4/20 Update:


Bernie:                329,108  Votes  (38.2%)       + 37,124 Votes   (+0.4%)
Biden:                 233,020  Votes  (27.0%)       + 27,470 Votes   (+0.4%)
Bloomberg:           97,276   Votes  (11.3%)       + 6,717  Votes   (-0.4%)
Warren:               105,764   Votes  (12.3%)      + 12,069 Votes   (+0.2%)
Pete:                   32,903   Votes   ( 3.8%)        +  1,091 Votes   (-0.3%)
Amy:                   14,904  Votes    (1.7%)         +    478 Votes    (-0.2%)
Others:                48,661 Votes     (5.7%)         + 3,505 Votes    (-0.1%)

   

[NOVA Green]

Santa Clara County Vote Updates:

TOTAL SANTA CLARA CO REG VOTERS 2020:   951,292

2016: 1,435k TOTAL DEM PRIM VOTERS

HRC:        159,480 Votes (57.5%)
Bernie:     116,193 Votes (41.9%)

2020 SANTA CLARA COUNTY ELECTION NIGHT DEM PRIM VOTES (153.5k TOT)

Bernie:               49,818   Votes     (32.4%)
Biden:                30,916   Votes      (20.1%)
Bloomberg:         27,243  Votes     (17.7%)
Warren:              18,261   Votes    (11.9%)
Pete:                  11,477   Votes    ( 7.5%)
Amy:                  7,223     Votes   ( 4.7%)
Others:               8,594     Votes   ( 5.6%)

2020 SANTA CLARA COUNTY 3/4 UPDATE DEM PRIM VOTES (162.2k TOT)

Bernie:               51,786   Votes     (31.9%)      + 1,968 Votes (-0.5%)
Biden:                33,405   Votes     (20.6%)      + 2,489 Votes (+0.5%)
Bloomberg:         28,721  Votes     (17.7%)       + 1,478‬ Votes (+ 0.0%)
Warren:              19,745   Votes    (12.2%)       + 1,484 Votes (+0.3%)
Pete:                  12,005   Votes    ( 7.4%)        +   528  Votes (-0.1%)
Amy:                  7,644     Votes   ( 4.7%)         +  421 Votes   (+ 0.0%)
Others:               8,873     Votes   ( 5.6%)         +  279 Votes  (+ 0.0%)

Needless to say Bernie winning Santa Clara County initially by some 12% is amazing, after losing to HRC by 15% in '16, but these numbers will most likely continue to climb higher for Sanders as all of these late votes and Provisional Ballots come in...

Meanwhile, anybody wanting to check out Santa Clara election results further can go their website that even includes provisional numbers by precinct (haven't had a chance to delve into it yet)...

https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/CA/Santa_Clara/101316/web.241347/#/vote-center

https://www.sccgov.org/sites/rov/Statistics/Documents/sov/2020/Santa%20Clara%20March%202020%20Primary%20-%20Statement%20Of%20Vote.pdf

[Green Line]

This is my bi-yearly reminder that the way California counts its votes is a disgrace.  Every year I hear the excuse that "its a really big state so it takes longer", which has no bearing on their ability to count votes.

[Mr. Smith]

This is my bi-yearly reminder that the way California counts its votes is a disgrace.  Every year I hear the excuse that "its a really big state so it takes longer", which has no bearing on their ability to count votes.

The alternative is Florida, and given how 2018 Broward went...that doesn't seem a good difference.

Let the state take its time and get the results correct, rather than become another one of those states with irregularities and controversies.

[Green Line]

This is my bi-yearly reminder that the way California counts its votes is a disgrace.  Every year I hear the excuse that "its a really big state so it takes longer", which has no bearing on their ability to count votes.

The alternative is Florida, and given how 2018 Broward went...that doesn't seem a good difference.

Let the state take its time and get the results correct, rather than become another one of those states with irregularities and controversies.

That's not really the only alternative.. You don't need a full month to count the votes correctly.  Somehow Virginia managed to count pretty much 100% of the vote in a matter of hours, and I don't hear of any issues there.  Let the state take its time, sure..  California had a full day today and went from 54% to 58%.  There's a happy medium between rushing the count and this.

[Tender Branson]

In reality, Biden already has a more than 2:1 lead over Sanders in delegates if you add Bloomberg/Buttigieg and Klobuchars delegates + 90% of the superdelegates (which Biden will get).

Biden already has 1.300 delegates in this case vs. 600 or so for Bernie.

[Mr. Smith]

This is my bi-yearly reminder that the way California counts its votes is a disgrace.  Every year I hear the excuse that "its a really big state so it takes longer", which has no bearing on their ability to count votes.

The alternative is Florida, and given how 2018 Broward went...that doesn't seem a good difference.

Let the state take its time and get the results correct, rather than become another one of those states with irregularities and controversies.

That's not really the only alternative.. You don't need a full month to count the votes correctly.  Somehow Virginia managed to count pretty much 100% of the vote in a matter of hours, and I don't hear of any issues there.  Let the state take its time, sure..  California had a full day today and went from 54% to 58%.  There's a happy medium between rushing the count and this.

Virginia is largely Election Day only [which is partially why I sat out of 2013]. California has one of the longest early-voting periods, combined with lots of perma-absentee ballots [as yours truly has voted]. These things do make a difference, along with size.

[Kamala's side hoe]

Bernie's ultimate mistake was running against Obama's legacy in 2016.

That is why the blacks never took a liking to him.  

Can you imagine the GOP candidate in 1988 saying that Reagan was a massive disappointment and that Ronnie Raygun should have been primaried in 1984?  Such a candidate would have been shut the hell down.   But liberals are waaaaaay too nice, and they allowed Bernie to run his yap.  

lulz

Well, that might be part of it. But really for all the outreach Sanders was doing that earned him the support of Latin voters, whatever he did clearly didn't attract too many new black voters to his camp.

In my understanding of black voters, they put a lot of emphasis on trust. It appears that most just still don't trust Sanders for whatever reason.

Black voters have much more positive opinions of the democratic party and the democratic 'establishment' than latinos, you can see this in down ballot races. The democratic establishment attacks feel like an attack to black leaders in their community.

Well that's part of it but also age is probably a major factor too. Latino Americans are younger on average in comparison to black voters. That is at least some of the explanation for the disparity we are seeing regarding which demographic supports which candidate.

There seems to be an emerging immigrant-vs-native divide here that complements the existing geographic and ideological divisions within the Democratic Party.

The vast majority of black voters are African-American, while most Latino voters in heavily-Latino states west of the Mississippi are either Mexican immigrants themselves or the children of Mexican immigrants. Native-born and established-community voters are generally going to favor the establishment, while recent immigrant communities are going to be more drawn to outsider candidates who make policy comparisons with other countries, as Bernie has done. I suspect this also explains why Sanders did relatively well with Asian voters.

[Kamala's side hoe]

I'm sure someone has pointed this out already, but perhaps the highlight of the night for me is Sanders winning Orange County, and by so much. So much for this county flipping back in 2020.

#OrangeCoLovesSocialism

I'm very curious to the precinct map in OC, especially how the Vietnamese areas are voting.

If I had to bet I'd say Sanders or Biden. For some reason I don't think Bloomberg would appeal to the older, anti-Sanders Viets.