State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2

[Gass3268]

Yeah, SD-17 looks to be a very suburban Kansas City district, just across the river. Seems to have all the elements of a Democratic pick up.

[Gass3268]

No idea on the margin

https://twitter.com/TheDLCC/status/1001653927660736513

[Gass3268]

Today there will be one election - Connecticut State House District 4. Polls close at 8 EST. Not seeing a results page just yet.

Non-Tuesday/Saturday elections are stupid.

[Gass3268]

In 2016, the Dems held this seat by 87 percent to 13 percent. Tonight, the two Dems outpolled the republican by 94 percent to 5 percent. That's a 15 point swing (+74 to +89) to the Democrats.

What a fundamental collapse by the Connecticut Republican Party. Clearly on their way to third party status and Lamontmania sweeps the state.

Did I do it right?

[Gass3268]

Miles Map!

[Gass3268]

People are already rushing in to say "muh Greitens" to excuse the R-loss, using it to act as if this has no bearing on the rest of the races we'll see in 2018. They did the same with "muh pederast" in AL-SEN. It's almost as if MULTIPLE state-level Republican parties are horrible, scandal-plagued and liable to blowback, and that perhaps these cases aren't necessarily isolated incidents.

Greitens is a big drag here, but an area like Kansas City is were you could totally see Trump be a bigger drag then other locations.

[Gass3268]

It's a win like this that makes me feel pretty good about KS-03 just across the border.

[Gass3268]

Good news! A map is coming tonight!

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1004181976415432704

[Gass3268]

Corlew is on track to underperform Akins 2012 performance.

No way. McCaskill won Clay County as a whole by 19 points, and SD-17 is slightly bluer than the county as a whole

This post just caused me to check the map and I noticed that McCaskill lost a county in 2012 that she won in 2006. Oregon County, MO must be a very "special" place...lol.

some of the old yellow dogs probably died between 06 and 12 lol..

literally thats the reason.

The only rural counties McCaskill could win:

Ste Genevieve: Lean to likely D in probability but close in margin.
Saline: Toss Up
Adair: Lean GOP
Iron: Lean GOP
Ray: Lean GOP
Lafayette: Likely GOP
Reynolds: Lean GOP
Washington: Likely GOP
Hickory: Likely GOP

What about Jefferson?

My dad lives in Saline County. Dems always do better there in statewide races.

[Gass3268]

Arthur only lost 3 precicents:

[Gass3268]

I'm optimistic on the two Wisconsin specials next Tuesday. Both democratic candidates have decent facebook enthusiasm, and the DLCC is getting heavily involved. Also saw an article indicating outside groups are already putting tens of thousands in SD-01 in favor of Frostman (D).

I personally feel better about SD-01 than about AD-42. SD-01 is more swingy, while AD-42 is gerrymandered just right with some really nasty Republican areas in the eastern part of the district that offset a more Democratic friendly western part of the district.

[Gass3268]

This feels like loser speak:

https://twitter.com/jessieopie/status/1004444193794781186

[Gass3268]

Whoops, lol:

https://twitter.com/sbauerAP/status/1005154699618717697

[Gass3268]

Posting my analysis here:

AD-42
Groves-Lloyd (D) - 832 likes
Plumer (R) - 693 likes
54-40 Trump, Dallet won by <1

This seat in a mishmash of areas north of Madison is historically Republican. The incumbent won reelection 59-41 in 2016, which isn't too impressive considering how the district voted in the presidential race. As you can see, the facebook enthusiasm is about the same for each candidate, so that metric is a wash. Groves-Lloyd is from Columbia county, which has the largest amount of votes in the district. Coincidentally, Plumer is from the exact same town as GL so Columbia county will be the battleground. Lloyds-Grove needs to keep her margins down in Fond-du-Lac and Dodge and do well in the Dane portions of the district. Plumer received the endorsement of the Wisconsin State Journal, giving him an extra boost.

Scandals: Plumer was cited for hitting his daughter in the 90s, GL deleted tweets saying mean things about Republicans and endorsing the DSA. Should be a wash in that metric.

Money: More outside spending for Plumer (80K to 30K), ads running on TV for him according to Facebook. But GL has outraised Plumer 300K to 185K (Holy sh*t that's a lot for a state legislative special)

Prediction: Plumer wins 54-46
Republican tradition holds strong, and the late newspaper endorsement pushes Plumer to the top.

SD-01
Frostman (D) - 1696
Rep. André Jacque (R) - Doesn't have a campaign facebook page but seems decently popular on his personal facebook in terms of individual post likes and shares
56-38 Trump, Dallet+7

This seat encompasses the Door peninsula and is focused on the counties of Brown, Outagamie, Calumet and Door. Hard to calculate facebook enthusiasm, so I'll just ignore that metric. Jacque represents 1/3 of this senate seat in AD-02, so he needs to rack up votes in the portion Brown and Manitowoc counties that he represents. In 2016 he faced an independent, but in 2012 he only won reelection 58-42 in AD-02. Trump won the assembly seat 59-36 (5 points more republican than the district as a whole), so he needs to stay around the 2012 level as a minimum to keep himself in contention. Frostman is the head of the Door county economic council, so he needs to absolutely crush Jacque in Door county, which I expect he will easily win. The question is the margin, not who wins and loses each county. Frostman also needs to perform well in the portions of Brown and Outagamie counties that are not in AD-02, where Hillary did better than in the district as a whole. Overall, there are several plausible paths to victory for each candidate.

Scandals: None really, though Jacque is considered one of the most conservative members of the assembly.

Fundraising: Frostman is favored in outside spending (150K to 80K) and in fundraising (170K to 90K).

Prediction: Jacque wins 52-48
This seat really liked Trump, and I'll expect voters there are going to be invigorated by the images of Trump winning in diplomacy with South Korea. Frostman seems to be running a good campaign, but it won't be enough.

Some of this is nonsense (nobody cares about newspaper endorsements and I really doubt what happened in Korea will get someone who wasn't going to vote today to go out and vote), but for the most part this is pretty good analysis.

I think going with the Dems picking up SD-01 narrowly and losing AD-42 narrowly. AD-42 may one of the most gerrymandered districts in the state.

[Gass3268]

Groves-Lloyd is from Village Lodi (Plumer is from the Town of Lodi, two different things)

https://twitter.com/MollyBeck/status/1006633572248285184

Clinton won the Village of Lodi by about 20 points.

[Gass3268]

Polls are closed! Now we wait.

[Gass3268]

First results from Kewaunee County:

City of Algoma
Jacques (GOP): 180
Frostman (DEM): 337

Couldn't track down precinct results, but it is supposedly a 50/50 town.

Trump won it by .13, Obama won it in 2012.

[Gass3268]

Frostman currently up in Calumet County. He did really well in the Appleton precincts.

[Gass3268]

45% in, Frostman narrows the gap. Trails 48-52%

Where are you getting this?

[Gass3268]

Candidate
Votes
Percent
Caleb Frostman
11,545
52%
Andre Jacque
10,540
48%
Precincts Reporting: 71 of 93
Percent Reporting: 76%

This is going to be really close.

[Gass3268]

We're all conceding AD42 to the Republican, right?

What is in so far is from the very very Republican part of the district, plus the tiny bit that's in Dane County.

[Gass3268]

Frostman won Calumet County by 20 votes.

[Gass3268]

Based on what I can gather Jacque is doing really well in his Assembly District, but is losing the other two.

[Gass3268]

The Republican is romping in AD-42.

Oh yeah, this one is over. Democrat did awful in Columbia County.

[Gass3268]

Total incl. Jacque's Brown dump:


Candidate
Votes
Percent
Caleb Frostman
14,432
52%
Andre Jacque
13,406
48%
Precincts Reporting: 90 of 93
Percent Reporting: 97%

Last three precincts are from Manitowoc County.