State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Arthur needs like 20% of remaining votes to win.

[LimoLiberal]

Another 10 more precincts came in, and Arthur (D) won those 2981-2060. Lead narrows marginally to 60-40 with 46/61 precincts reported. Call can be made.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Fresh dump. 75% in and Arthur leads sinks to only 60-40. We can call it

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

People are already rushing in to say "muh Greitens" to excuse the R-loss, using it to act as if this has no bearing on the rest of the races we'll see in 2018. They did the same with "muh pederast" in AL-SEN. It's almost as if MULTIPLE state-level Republican parties are horrible, scandal-plagued and liable to blowback, and that perhaps these cases aren't necessarily isolated incidents.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Arthur needs 1% of remaining vote to win.

[Gass3268]

People are already rushing in to say "muh Greitens" to excuse the R-loss, using it to act as if this has no bearing on the rest of the races we'll see in 2018. They did the same with "muh pederast" in AL-SEN. It's almost as if MULTIPLE state-level Republican parties are horrible, scandal-plagued and liable to blowback, and that perhaps these cases aren't necessarily isolated incidents.

Greitens is a big drag here, but an area like Kansas City is were you could totally see Trump be a bigger drag then other locations.

[Hindsight was 2020]

82% in and Arthur lead goes back up 61-39

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Even if all the remaining votes went to Corlew, Arthur still wins.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

People are already rushing in to say "muh Greitens" to excuse the R-loss, using it to act as if this has no bearing on the rest of the races we'll see in 2018. They did the same with "muh pederast" in AL-SEN. It's almost as if MULTIPLE state-level Republican parties are horrible, scandal-plagued and liable to blowback, and that perhaps these cases aren't necessarily isolated incidents.

Greitens is a big drag here, but an area like Kansas City is were you could totally see Trump be a bigger drag then other locations.

Right, that's what I'm saying. That people are consistently underestimating the effect of what they perceive to be isolated incidents (Greitens, Moore) and not considering the possibility that these are somehow indicative of something wrong with the national Republican party as a whole (or at least it's perception).

[junior chįmp]

Hawley is done

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Hawley is done

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Corlew is on track to underperform Akins 2012 performance.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

By the way, in polls of this District, McCaskill was leading by more than Arthur was when both races were polled.

[IceSpear]

People are already rushing in to say "muh Greitens" to excuse the R-loss, using it to act as if this has no bearing on the rest of the races we'll see in 2018. They did the same with "muh pederast" in AL-SEN. It's almost as if MULTIPLE state-level Republican parties are horrible, scandal-plagued and liable to blowback, and that perhaps these cases aren't necessarily isolated incidents.

It won't. Only Dem hacks (which were already banked votes) will remember or care about Greitens by November. Voters have the attention span of a goldfish.

If McCaskill wins, it'll be because of the political environment, the enthusiasm gap, and Hawley's dud of a campaign.

[ON Progressive]

Final result:

Lauren Arthur (D) 14,674 (59.61%)
Kevin Corlew (R) 9,917 (40.28%)

Keep in mind the one poll of this race had Arthur up 47-41, and it ended up being 59-40.

[Ebsy]

Final.

25 point swing from 2016.

[GeorgiaModerate]

There's been a noticeable lack of comment on this result from certain quarters.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

All votes are in; and Corlew has done even worse than Akin 2012.

Hawley is done.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Final result:

Lauren Arthur (D) 14,674 (59.61%)
Kevin Corlew (R) 9,917 (40.28%)

Keep in mind the one poll of this race had Arthur up 47-41, and it ended up being 59-40.

They also polled the Senate Race within the District, and had McCaskill up by even more than they had Arthur up.

[LimoLiberal]

Rep. Lauren Arthur had massive facebook enthusiasm and the DLCC invested rather significantly here as well. She was a great candidate who had a great win.

[IceSpear]

Rep. Lauren Arthur had massive facebook enthusiasm and the DLCC invested rather significantly here as well. She was a great candidate who had a great win.

So this means the Dem wave is back on, right Andrew?

[Gass3268]

It's a win like this that makes me feel pretty good about KS-03 just across the border.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Corlew is on track to underperform Akins 2012 performance.

No way. McCaskill won Clay County as a whole by 19 points, and SD-17 is slightly bluer than the county as a whole

...

I thought McCaskill got 57% of the vote in this SD, and Arthur has even more than that now.

[IceSpear]

Corlew is on track to underperform Akins 2012 performance.

No way. McCaskill won Clay County as a whole by 19 points, and SD-17 is slightly bluer than the county as a whole

This post just caused me to check the map and I noticed that McCaskill lost a county in 2012 that she won in 2006. Oregon County, MO must be a very "special" place...lol.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Turns out, PNM was right.

McCaskill won the SD by 22 in 2012; 57 to 35.

I only remembered the McCaskill percent, and I forgot how well 3rd parties did in that election.