State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2

[jamestroll]

Turns out, PNM was right.

McCaskill won the SD by 22 in 2012; 57 to 35.

I only remembered the McCaskill percent, and I forgot how well 3rd parties did in that election.

Overall still a very good sign. McCaskill wont do as well statewide as she did in 2012 obviously but will need to do nearly as well in the KC and STL suburbs as she did in 2012.

I am even betting she pulls a narrow victory in St Charles County, MO...

But rural areas will remain very very Republican.

[Gass3268]

Good news! A map is coming tonight!

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1004181976415432704

[jamestroll]

Corlew is on track to underperform Akins 2012 performance.

No way. McCaskill won Clay County as a whole by 19 points, and SD-17 is slightly bluer than the county as a whole

This post just caused me to check the map and I noticed that McCaskill lost a county in 2012 that she won in 2006. Oregon County, MO must be a very "special" place...lol.

some of the old yellow dogs probably died between 06 and 12 lol..

literally thats the reason.

The only rural counties McCaskill could win:

Ste Genevieve: Lean to likely D in probability but close in margin.
Saline: Toss Up
Adair: Lean GOP
Iron: Lean GOP
Ray: Lean GOP
Lafayette: Likely GOP
Reynolds: Lean GOP
Washington: Likely GOP
Hickory: Likely GOP

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Rep. Lauren Arthur had massive facebook enthusiasm and the DLCC invested rather significantly here as well. She was a great candidate who had a great win.

Indeed, great win!

[Gass3268]

Corlew is on track to underperform Akins 2012 performance.

No way. McCaskill won Clay County as a whole by 19 points, and SD-17 is slightly bluer than the county as a whole

This post just caused me to check the map and I noticed that McCaskill lost a county in 2012 that she won in 2006. Oregon County, MO must be a very "special" place...lol.

some of the old yellow dogs probably died between 06 and 12 lol..

literally thats the reason.

The only rural counties McCaskill could win:

Ste Genevieve: Lean to likely D in probability but close in margin.
Saline: Toss Up
Adair: Lean GOP
Iron: Lean GOP
Ray: Lean GOP
Lafayette: Likely GOP
Reynolds: Lean GOP
Washington: Likely GOP
Hickory: Likely GOP

What about Jefferson?

My dad lives in Saline County. Dems always do better there in statewide races.

[jamestroll]

Corlew is on track to underperform Akins 2012 performance.

No way. McCaskill won Clay County as a whole by 19 points, and SD-17 is slightly bluer than the county as a whole

This post just caused me to check the map and I noticed that McCaskill lost a county in 2012 that she won in 2006. Oregon County, MO must be a very "special" place...lol.

some of the old yellow dogs probably died between 06 and 12 lol..

literally thats the reason.

The only rural counties McCaskill could win:

Ste Genevieve: Lean to likely D in probability but close in margin.
Saline: Toss Up
Adair: Lean GOP
Iron: Lean GOP
Ray: Lean GOP
Lafayette: Likely GOP
Reynolds: Lean GOP
Washington: Likely GOP
Hickory: Likely GOP

What about Jefferson?

My dad lives in Saline County. Dems always do better there in statewide races.

I don't consider Jefferson rural really. But it will lean Democratic if McCaskill is winning.

I know I go back and forth on this and try to hold back my emotions hence why  I continuously had MO Sen as lean Republican but I am finally changing it to a Leaning Democratic hold.

[Ebsy]

McCaskill will win Jefferson County if she is winning statewide.

[jamestroll]

something like this I think

[Gass3268]

Arthur only lost 3 precicents:

[LimoLiberal]

DLCC director saying they are "all in to win" for the two Wisconsin specials next week. Suggests to me they think they can win both.

https://twitter.com/JessicaPost/status/1004193554015518720

[Ebsy]

Her uniformly good performance across the district should worry the GOP.

[LimoLiberal]

Humiliating loss for California Democrats incoming -->

Shall Josh Newman be recalled (removed) from the office of State Sentator, District 29?
Completed Precincts: 0 of 369
Vote Count   Percentage
Yes   21,128   62.1%
No   12,900   37.9%

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

Humiliating loss for California Democrats incoming -->

Shall Josh Newman be recalled (removed) from the office of State Sentator, District 29?
Completed Precincts: 0 of 369
Vote Count   Percentage
Yes   21,128   62.1%
No   12,900   37.9%

Why do you use the red colors of the democratic party but support republicans? Reminds me of someone that will be within the Fremont commons next week.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Humiliating loss for California Democrats incoming -->

Shall Josh Newman be recalled (removed) from the office of State Sentator, District 29?
Completed Precincts: 0 of 369
Vote Count   Percentage
Yes   21,128   62.1%
No   12,900   37.9%

Where are you seeing this? NYT isn't covering it and the SOS doesn't have anything up yet.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Way too early to say anything definitively yet, but first tea leaves from the Senate 32 Special Jungle:

   Bob J. Archuleta
(Party Preference: DEM)
116   
5.4%
Rudy Bermudez
(Party Preference: DEM)
91   
4.2%
Vanessa Delgado
(Party Preference: DEM)
295   
13.7%
John Paul Drayer
(Party Preference: DEM)
30   
1.4%
Darren Joseph Gendron
(Party Preference: DEM)
10   
0.5%
Tony Mendoza
(Party Preference: DEM)
237   
11.0%
Vivian Romero
(Party Preference: DEM)
118   
5.5%
Vicky Santana
(Party Preference: DEM)
140   
6.5%
Ali S. Taj
(Party Preference: DEM)
139   
6.5%
Ion Sarega
(Party Preference: REP)
284   
13.2%
Rita Topalian
(Party Preference: REP)
689   
32.1%

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

First tea leaves from the recall. Again, it's very early, so take these numbers with a heavy grain of salt.

Shall JOSH NEWMAN be recalled (removed) from the Office of State Senate District 29?   Yes - 12,900   37.9%   No - 21,128   62.1%

Candidates to Succeed Josh Newman as State Senator if he is Recalled

Candidate   Votes   Percent
Kevin Carr
(Party Preference: DEM)
2,424   
7.7%
Joseph Cho
(Party Preference: DEM)
6,158   
19.5%
Josh Ferguson
(Party Preference: DEM)
3,414   
10.8%
Ling Ling Chang
(Party Preference: REP)
11,266   
35.8%
George C. Shen
(Party Preference: REP)
1,639   
5.2%
Bruce Whitaker
(Party Preference: REP)
6,598   
20.9%

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

First numbers from the 45th assembly race. Again, extremely early:

Jesse Gabriel
(Party Preference: DEM)
60   
44.4%
Justin M. Clark
(Party Preference: REP)
75   
55.6%

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

With all precincts at least partially reporting, Dems easily held the 39th Assembly District:

Luz Maria Rivas
(Party Preference: DEM)
20,598   
69.8%
Ricardo Antonio Benitez
(Party Preference: REP)
8,926   
30.2%

Ditto in the 45th Assembly District:

Jesse Gabriel
(Party Preference: DEM)
28,721   
63.8%
Justin M. Clark
(Party Preference: REP)
16,279   
36.2%

In the 32nd Senate District, no one obtained a majority. A republican secured their place in the August Runoff. Democrats Vanessa Delgado and Tony Mendoza are in a tight race for second place, watch the late ballots.:

Bob J. Archuleta
(Party Preference: DEM)
9,534   
11.9%
Rudy Bermudez
(Party Preference: DEM)
3,570   
4.5%
Vanessa Delgado
(Party Preference: DEM)
13,050   
16.3%
John Paul Drayer
(Party Preference: DEM)
893   
1.1%
Darren Joseph Gendron
(Party Preference: DEM)
409   
0.5%
Tony Mendoza
(Party Preference: DEM)
11,600   
14.5%
Vivian Romero
(Party Preference: DEM)
3,504   
4.4%
Vicky Santana
(Party Preference: DEM)
5,256   
6.6%
Ali S. Taj
(Party Preference: DEM)
4,583   
5.7%
Ion Sarega
(Party Preference: REP)
7,413   
9.3%
Rita Topalian
(Party Preference: REP)
20,244   
25.3%

In Senate District 29, Josh Newman was recalled overwhelmingly:

Shall JOSH NEWMAN be recalled (removed) from the Office of State Senate District 29?   Yes - 55,539   59.5% No -   37,850   40.5%

As there is no runoff provision for recalls, Ling Ling Chang (R) has been elected to the seat.

Candidates to Succeed Josh Newman as State Senator if he is Recalled

Candidate   Votes   Percent
Kevin Carr
(Party Preference: DEM)
7,953   
8.9%
Joseph Cho
(Party Preference: DEM)
17,962   
20.1%
Josh Ferguson
(Party Preference: DEM)
10,690   
12.0%
Ling Ling Chang
(Party Preference: REP)
30,503   
34.2%
George C. Shen
(Party Preference: REP)
4,561   
5.1%
Bruce Whitaker
(Party Preference: REP)
17,514   
19.6%

-------------

The next special elections are on June 12 in Wisconsin.

[LimoLiberal]

I'm optimistic on the two Wisconsin specials next Tuesday. Both democratic candidates have decent facebook enthusiasm, and the DLCC is getting heavily involved. Also saw an article indicating outside groups are already putting tens of thousands in SD-01 in favor of Frostman (D).

[Gass3268]

I'm optimistic on the two Wisconsin specials next Tuesday. Both democratic candidates have decent facebook enthusiasm, and the DLCC is getting heavily involved. Also saw an article indicating outside groups are already putting tens of thousands in SD-01 in favor of Frostman (D).

I personally feel better about SD-01 than about AD-42. SD-01 is more swingy, while AD-42 is gerrymandered just right with some really nasty Republican areas in the eastern part of the district that offset a more Democratic friendly western part of the district.

[Gass3268]

This feels like loser speak:

https://twitter.com/jessieopie/status/1004444193794781186

[junior chįmp]

This feels like loser speak:

https://twitter.com/jessieopie/status/1004444193794781186

Walker knows its over for him

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

This feels like loser speak:

https://twitter.com/jessieopie/status/1004444193794781186

Walker knows its over for him

Chokin' Scott!

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

We deserved to lose our supermajority in the CA senate.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I'm optimistic on the two Wisconsin specials next Tuesday. Both democratic candidates have decent facebook enthusiasm, and the DLCC is getting heavily involved. Also saw an article indicating outside groups are already putting tens of thousands in SD-01 in favor of Frostman (D).

I don't know, I think these two races are Lean R.