🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[mileslunn]

Anyone know of a site with a link to Landkreis results and independent cities.  Be interesting to have a map of how Germany voted based on those as we have one for municipalities. 

[mileslunn]

Was wondering how come some rural areas like Northwestern corner of Lower Saxony and northern parts of Hesse so heavily SPD?  Is that just due to tradition or are there other reasons.  I noticed SPD won many rural areas, but when you take combined right and combined left, generally most rural areas voted right (CDU/CSU + FDP + Afd) while urban left (SPD + Greens + die Linke).  Most rural areas SPD came in first in was due to left largely united as Greens and Die Linke quite weak while right more split as FDP and AfD strong.  But those two, voted left overall.  I realize in Germany, rural areas are a lot more dense and usually have a large town so not quite same as in US, Canada, or Australia where rural areas more removed from cities and lower population density.  But still somewhat comparable to UK and Tories dominate rural UK even when Tony Blair was PM. 

Another question is earlier some forums were talking about decline of social democracy in Europe so if SPD forms government, does that help their cause or will it be more an isolated case like Portugal and Denmark who have popular social democratic governments but hasn't necessarily helped elsewhere.  Norway just elected theirs so too early to tell while in Sweden, Finland, and Spain polls show them struggling but still competitive not wiped out like Netherlands, France, or Greece.  Only reason I ask is Germany is largest EU member state so often what happens there has impact throughout Europe.  Portugal and Denmark are small countries which few pay attention to.

[mileslunn]

Its true fragmentation is a real issue in countries that use PR.  Malta and New Zealand seem two notable exceptions as first remains a two party system while latter used FTFP up until mid 90s so perhaps it will eventually fragment over time but is taking a bit longer.  Canada which uses FTFP is seeing that to some extent but more due to regional divides not across the country like in Europe.  UK is not largely due to system as I suspect in any other European country you wouldn't have Tony Blair and Jeremy Corbyn in same party (former in liberal or social democratic party, latter in further left) just as you wouldn't have Kenneth Clarke and Jacob Rees-Mogg in same party either.  US is off course the one you are not seeing fragmentation but since its winner take all, easy to unite half the country on stopping a particular party.

But yes you are right on parties on right seeing similar decline for most part with a few exceptions.  Even in Spain Popular party may be leading in polls but not too long ago anything under 40% was a bad result for them whereas now anything over 30% is considered a good result thanks to rise of Vox and to lesser extent C's.  Austria and Greece though still have centre-right doing well although in Greece bonus seats for winner probably helps.  OVP while doing better than most centre-right parties and highest its been in a while, still mid to upper 30s is below what they got historically but not record low.  FPO also has been around a lot longer than most right wing populist parties so perhaps that is why while Greens there mostly coming at expense of SPO.  Neos hard to say who they are hurting most but probably equally both sides.  But still point taken.

[mileslunn]

East Frisia and Northern Hesse are SPD strongholds because they are very industrial and very Protestant.* Despite stereotypes they have not actually been rural backwaters for a long time; longer than anyone posting on this forum has been alive and the only North/Western European countries where they would not be fertile ground for the primary social democratic party of record are those in which that party has collapsed into irrelevance or never had much to start with.

_{*A couple of additional cultural matters add further to SPD strength in the former, much in the way that similar issues add extra percentages to CSU totals in Bavaria and so on.}

That makes sense.  Obviously in Germany tough to compare to US or Canada as even so called rural areas are far more densely populated than in those two countries thus why right wing dominance not as automatic.  However UK is similar here and while its true areas like this were mostly Labour strongholds in UK until very recently, many similar areas Boris Johnson was able to win.  Correct me if I am wrong but they seem comparable to Copeland, Northwest Durham, Workington, Sedgefield which are all semi-rural and all Labour strongholds until very recently.  Mind you Scholz is a lot more moderate than Corbyn so its quite possible those areas in UK would have stayed Labour if they had someone similar to Scholz.  For US comparisons, a good example is Iron Range which will Democrats still have some residual strength, its not the Democrat stronghold it once was.  Only reason Minnesota has not moved right is due to Democrat gains in Minneapolis-St. Paul area easily cancel those out.  Asides from much lower population density, Canadian equivalents perhaps Northern Ontario, Cape Breton Island, and North Vancouver Island which did vote for Liberals or NDP, but were much closer than historical and wouldn't be surprised if Tories flip those areas whenever they return to power.

Also could fact all parties close to centre and Germany lacks the ideological polarization you see in English speaking world also play a role.  Left/right polarization seems much weaker in Germany than English speaking countries so that might help avoid the rural/urban polarization you have there.  I know in both US and Canada, Merkel and Laschet would be called RINOs in US or Liberal lite in Canada.  Certainly right in Canada and the US unlike Germany expects far more ideological purity and thus left being more dogmatic and turn off in rural areas could be partly a backlash to that.  Likewise on left, I believe a lot of the purists tend to be younger generations who are still very idealistic and not older members who are more pragmatic.  And SPD did quite well amongst seniors, quite a contrast with Labour Party which skews very much younger like Greens do.  To be fair in Canada Liberals do well amongst older voters while its NDP who skews younger, still both are very much big city parties and much weaker in rural areas than SPD, but not quite as urban centric as Greens are.

[mileslunn]

Earlier, we got a municipal map.  Wonder if anyone with good computer skills could produce the following: (chose whatever colours you think is best) but following two maps:

1.  Whether right or left got more votes so for simplicity right is CDU/CSU + FDP + AfD while left is SPD + Greens + Die Linke.  Be curious to see if urban/rural divide exists as seems a lot of smaller urban areas and rural ones SPD won, right got more votes whereas in urban areas, left generally got more.

2.  A map where left got over 50% and where right got over 50% and then ones where neither cracked 50% mark.

Just be interesting as this site is about maps, but understand doing it manually very tedious and would take a long time and most of us probably don't have the time or patience for that.  But if one knows how to code things by computer, could have it done instantaneously. 

[mileslunn]

Its interesting that both the Greens and the FDP do so much better among 18-29 year olds. I have a pretty clear stereotype in my mind of a German 20-something who votes Green (don't Germans call them "muesli-fressers"?:-))

But who are the 20-somethings who vote FDP? I'm pictured uptight young (mostly men and some women) who studied economy and commerce and who waddle around with briefcases and dream of jobs as real estate agents or working in a bank tower in Frankfurt.

Am I right?

Somewhat, but I also think even a lot of lower income ones voted for them.  They opposed lockdowns although not other public health restrictions and generally speaking lockdowns were much harder on people in their 20s who tend to be out a lot more than older people.  While not all of them, I suspect some voted FDP over that and may not necessarily agree with them on other economic issues.  Because Germany tends to result in coalitions that are usually close to centre, younger voters who do have same loyalty to a party as older ones will easily crossover for a variety of reasons.  Its not like US where most always vote for a party on one side of the spectrum  There isn't the same hatred towards left or right that you see in English speaking world from other side.  Personality and stance on issues and general competence rather than where one falls on political spectrum play in bigger role in how Germans vote.  Because all parties close enough to centre, ideology matters less than in places that are more polarized. 

[mileslunn]

Are there any numbers on how working-class German youths voted specifically? Would be curious to see if there's any big differences between those with and without immigrant backgrounds and if FDP made gains even with working-class youths of immigrant background due to stances on lockdown etc.

Wouldn't be surprised if a lot in the hospitality sector voted FDP despite fact people who work there tend to usually lean left and are lower income.  That sector was hardest hit by lockdowns so would be understandable many would vote FDP over that.  Generally you tend to think of young females being overwhelmingly left wing, but I could see FDP doing quite well amongst young females over this issue.  Does anyone have exit polls with gender splits by age?  I know in English speaking world, males 18-29 tend to quite a bit more favourable to parties on right than females 18-29 are so be interested if same in Germany or not.

[mileslunn]

Is the middle part that is all red one large conurbation being built up in the entire area or is there some countryside in that.  Likewise for the black areas along periphery, how rural are they?  I know they have lower population densities but still seem to have plenty of smaller cities.  I have driven through the black areas and seemed mostly countryside but usually Autobahns in Germany tend to have trees along the side to block off side so hard to tell.

[mileslunn]

Elect a left wing government, get the same absurd attitude to fiscal policy.

RIP Europe. You were too conservative, too intellectually impotent and too risk averse to ever have much chance of adapting to the 21st century

Did Germans even elect a left-wing government? Red-Red-Green has no majority, so CDU and/or FDP are needed for a government. Luckily for SPD and Greens, AfD is extremely toxic.

Yes 1998-2005, you had a Red-Green coalition under Schroeder.

[mileslunn]

Elect a left wing government, get the same absurd attitude to fiscal policy.

RIP Europe. You were too conservative, too intellectually impotent and too risk averse to ever have much chance of adapting to the 21st century

That is part of negotiations.  If Greens and SPD had a majority on their own, taxes on wealthy would go up and there would be more spending.  In fact I think this was probably a trade off as they got a minimum wage hike and that will benefit their supporters a lot more than tax hikes on rich.  If in 2025, left gets a majority, taxes on rich will go up.  And obviously on fiscal policy a lot depends on economy.  If a strong economic rebound, they may be able to fund their spending without large deficits or tax hikes.  But if economy experiences slower growth, then can always make changes.  And if FDP won't go along, could call another election.

[mileslunn]

As for caving on no tax hikes on rich, I suspect Scholz is hoping that in 2025 a Red-Green majority is feasible so will be able to do it, just delayed.  Also Germany's top tax rates on rich are not that out of whack with other EU member states.  True most of its neighbours are slightly higher, but not by a huge amount of enough to make a huge difference.  I live in Canada not Germany, but a decade ago our top marginal rate was 46.4% (Germany is 47.5%), today it is 53.5% yet the increase in revenue government got was negligible so other than ideologically feeling good you are soaking rich, it didn't really allow for any program expansions.  Point is if they only raised the 45% bracket, it likely would bring in so little revenue no one would notice a difference.  Austria on top of their 50% bracket, added a 55% one for those over $1 million Euro yet I heard fewer than 500 Austrians impacted by it and most probably have good accountants so pay much less.  If they raised the 42% bracket as SPD and Greens wanted, they would hit anyone over 57,000 Euros thus a lot of FDP's core base.  I guess for symbolism they could have just raised the 45% bracket and not 42% and taken Biden approach of no one under equivalent of 400,000 USD would see their taxes go up, but unlike US, Germany has far fewer people that make that kind of income.  Germany may be as rich as US on average, but is much more equal and doesn't have near the level of income inequality US has.

On debt brake issue, I don't see how that is so controversial.  Yes perhaps that means tax hikes which they can always in 2025 run on.  But reality is large deficits today are tomorrow's tax hikes and/or spending cuts.  While a different country and a long time ago, Tommy Douglas here in Canada who was founder of our universal health care system never ran a deficit once in his almost 20 years as premier of Saskatchewan yet founded most important social program we have.  His reason was large deficits today meant cuts tomorrow.  In Canada, we have 10 provinces, NDP is our version of SPD and in BC the only province they govern, we had a surplus before COVID-19 and will likely be one of the first provinces to return to balance.  Next door in Alberta which has a very right wing government, they are running much bigger deficits.  Heck in US, some of the worst deficits have been under Republicans.  In UK, their deficit is worse than any European country despite having a Conservative government.  So real world experience suggests lots on left have been good on balanced budgets and plenty on right have been pretty bad.

I realize not just on this post, but a lot of mine draw back to Canadian, American, or British politics, but then again being an English speaker from North America, those are the three countries whose politics I am most familiar with.  Also due to cultural similarities easy to understand other two where I don't live whereas Germany is very different than Canada culturally so similarities much less than US or UK.

[mileslunn]

Apparently, the program of the future coalition want to abolish coal energy. I'm surprised FDP accept this insanity.

Abolishing coal AND nuclear in an heavy industrial country is...interesting.


Good news for French and Italian industries.


And good news for russian diplomacy.

The litmus test won't be about coal; the crucial question will be if the FDP is going to cave in to pressure from SPD and Greens regarding the speed limit question...

I sure hope not.  One of the things I love about renting a car in Europe and driving in Germany is fact I can drive at over 200 km/h.  Its only place on earth I can legally do this, so I really hope that stays.

[mileslunn]

10 months after surpassing the Greens and the Union in the polls, SPD is back in third place:

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1527530766850306048

Wouldn't this though be enough for a red-green coalition as I have 46% for them while CDU/FDP/AfD only 43% (yes I know no one will work with AfD), but unless win over 3 constituent seats, one needs 5% to get any top up seats.