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Author Topic: 🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)  (Read 216481 times)
Amanda Huggenkiss
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« Reply #2475 on: October 16, 2021, 09:34:51 AM »

Elect a left wing government, get the same absurd attitude to fiscal policy.

RIP Europe. You were too conservative, too intellectually impotent and too risk averse to ever have much chance of adapting to the 21st century
If you add up the FDP+CDU/CSU + AFD + Free Voters, that's 51.1% of the vote. It seems like a majority of the populace actually wants conservative policies and it's only because the AFD is too toxic to work with you have a left-wing goverment.

That’s the problem, or at least part of the problem. The real problem is the SPD and Greens caving in to the FDP’s demands because they don’t have any meaningful structurally innovative economic policies of their own. There is interesting and creative left wing thought on economics out there, but the SPD and Greens are far to timid and lacking in imagination to start really incorporating them into a governing programmes; hence their happy to let the liberals dictate this thing to them in return for the popular but hardly structurally meaningful ones like the minimum wage
Well you can't claim that the people elected a left-wing goverment when the majority of the vote went to parties promising right-wing economic policies of various stripes. Hell the german left should be grateful that the AFD and it's toxicity exists as it's the only thing allowing them into power, if the AFD was a less toxic party or didn't exist than the right-bloc would have easily been considered the winner of this election.

Many, if not the majority of AfD voters are in favor of economic state interventionism. Jörg Meuthen is one of the last ardent neoliberals in the AfD and he is resigning from his position. Most AfD politicians either don't care about having coherent economic policies but many, and most importantly, the vast majority from the influential eastern state branches, would be strongly against an economic policy favored by FDP and Union.
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parochial boy
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« Reply #2476 on: October 16, 2021, 10:02:54 AM »


Well you can't claim that the people elected a left-wing goverment when the majority of the vote went to parties promising right-wing economic policies of various stripes. Hell the german left should be grateful that the AFD and it's toxicity exists as it's the only thing allowing them into power, if the AFD was a less toxic party or didn't exist than the right-bloc would have easily been considered the winner of this election.

I think it is quite a stretch to claim a less toxic, or no AfD would mean there electorate mechanically folding into the FDP or the Union. In any case, the fact they exist reflects the German electorate and that they are so toxic meant that there was effectively no possible governing population that could have been led or dominated by the right. In that respect, it is pretty fair to say the left won the election in practice, as they found themselves in a position to lead and even dominate a governing coalition.

With that in mind


I disagree. SPD and Greens aren't "caving" to FDP demands, they're making meaningful compromises. No tax increases and return to the debt brake (not to be confused with a balanced budget, the debt brake still allows certain investments) were key priorities the party ran on and promised to deliver in any governing constellation. In doing so, they received a pretty good election result. Compromises are the essence of any governing coalition if you want stuff to get done. If people wanted left-wing policies across the board, they would have given Die Linke a stronger mandate or Red-Green a seat majority. If these compromises were not agreed to, we'd either end up with a Jamaica coalition or another Grand Coalition, which nobody wants.

I would have liked higher taxes on upper incomes, but now we need to see whether certain spending cuts (especially subventions) can still provide room for certain other expenditures. The debt brake won't get reinstated until 2023 anyway and it's certainly possible the new government will borrow several billions next year to make massive investments in renewable energy.

Scholz also has pretty detailled economic policies how to make sure Germany remains a strong industrial country in the coming decade, especially by managing the transformation to a carbon neutrality. He talked about that quite a lot during the campaign and I have no doubt he has the experience and competence to get it done.

The point I am making is not that the Greens and SPD shouldn't have compromised - including on economic policy - I know that. The criticism that I am making is that that fiscal orthodoxy is a hugely important issue and that from the outset the fact that the two parties neglected it, while the FDP have always had it as a core pillar of their outlook means that they folded too easily and gave the FDP and the economic right a huge win on a hugely consequential policy area.

As in, we know how harmful this was not just during the debt crisis and the enormous human impact that had - but in so far as fiscal orthodoxy has been a key reason as to why Western European economies are falling further and further behind. Germany has structural advantages in its size, wealth, the euro that makes its landing a bit softer, but it still suffers the long term consequences of having a state that is tied up to surpluses and afraid to invest in its own success. In that respect, the EU's largest economy being represented by a hardline deficit hawk as its finance minister and in its government programme is something that is going to pull the whole continent down with all the human consequences that will have.

As for the efficiencies, they are are on old populist trope that you can free up money this way. In practice it will almost certainly mean a real impact on the end users. For example, cut agricultural subsidies and you have either a consolidation under agribusiness (and environmentally disastruous mass use of pesticides, destruction of bocages etc...); enforced cost cutting (and therefore worse standards for the animals and for the produce); or more exports and hence more trade generated CO2 emissions. Especially if you still aren't ready to upgrade the freight rail infrastructure..


Anyway, I'll leave it there - conscious I'm turning this into another argument about "why parochial boy hates the FDP" rather than the actual election.
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Secretary of State Liberal Hack
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« Reply #2477 on: October 16, 2021, 10:06:54 AM »

Elect a left wing government, get the same absurd attitude to fiscal policy.

RIP Europe. You were too conservative, too intellectually impotent and too risk averse to ever have much chance of adapting to the 21st century
If you add up the FDP+CDU/CSU + AFD + Free Voters, that's 51.1% of the vote. It seems like a majority of the populace actually wants conservative policies and it's only because the AFD is too toxic to work with you have a left-wing goverment.

That’s the problem, or at least part of the problem. The real problem is the SPD and Greens caving in to the FDP’s demands because they don’t have any meaningful structurally innovative economic policies of their own. There is interesting and creative left wing thought on economics out there, but the SPD and Greens are far to timid and lacking in imagination to start really incorporating them into a governing programmes; hence their happy to let the liberals dictate this thing to them in return for the popular but hardly structurally meaningful ones like the minimum wage
Well you can't claim that the people elected a left-wing goverment when the majority of the vote went to parties promising right-wing economic policies of various stripes. Hell the german left should be grateful that the AFD and it's toxicity exists as it's the only thing allowing them into power, if the AFD was a less toxic party or didn't exist than the right-bloc would have easily been considered the winner of this election.

Many, if not the majority of AfD voters are in favor of economic state interventionism. Jörg Meuthen is one of the last ardent neoliberals in the AfD and he is resigning from his position. Most AfD politicians either don't care about having coherent economic policies but many, and most importantly, the vast majority from the influential eastern state branches, would be strongly against an economic policy favored by FDP and Union.
The AFD is uniquely lazzie fare in terms of it's economic policies compared to other right-wing populist parties across europe. Meuthen's resignation isn't because the party no longer supports his economic polices but simply because it's become more extreme than him like has happend with all the previous purges.

You are right to say that the average AFD voters probably doesn't care about a libertarian economy and might be in favour of state intervention but the party, it's membership and activists almost certianly aren't going to be in favour of that.

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Amanda Huggenkiss
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« Reply #2478 on: October 16, 2021, 10:12:33 AM »

Meuthen's resignation isn't because the party no longer supports his economic polices but simply because it's become more extreme than him like has happend with all the previous purges.

I never claimed this.

You are right to say that the average AFD voters probably doesn't care about a libertarian economy and might be in favour of state intervention but the party, it's membership and activists almost certianly aren't going to be in favour of that.

This is simply not true, especially regarding the AfD in Eastern Germany.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #2479 on: October 16, 2021, 03:26:22 PM »

Olaf Scholz leaves no doubt that he sees a trafficlight coalition as a real opportunity to implement lasting reforms. Today he tweeted the intension was not only "solid governing" (a term he uses frequently), but winning reelection. He already said this on election night.
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palandio
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« Reply #2480 on: October 16, 2021, 04:08:59 PM »




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mileslunn
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« Reply #2481 on: October 16, 2021, 05:16:52 PM »

As for caving on no tax hikes on rich, I suspect Scholz is hoping that in 2025 a Red-Green majority is feasible so will be able to do it, just delayed.  Also Germany's top tax rates on rich are not that out of whack with other EU member states.  True most of its neighbours are slightly higher, but not by a huge amount of enough to make a huge difference.  I live in Canada not Germany, but a decade ago our top marginal rate was 46.4% (Germany is 47.5%), today it is 53.5% yet the increase in revenue government got was negligible so other than ideologically feeling good you are soaking rich, it didn't really allow for any program expansions.  Point is if they only raised the 45% bracket, it likely would bring in so little revenue no one would notice a difference.  Austria on top of their 50% bracket, added a 55% one for those over $1 million Euro yet I heard fewer than 500 Austrians impacted by it and most probably have good accountants so pay much less.  If they raised the 42% bracket as SPD and Greens wanted, they would hit anyone over 57,000 Euros thus a lot of FDP's core base.  I guess for symbolism they could have just raised the 45% bracket and not 42% and taken Biden approach of no one under equivalent of 400,000 USD would see their taxes go up, but unlike US, Germany has far fewer people that make that kind of income.  Germany may be as rich as US on average, but is much more equal and doesn't have near the level of income inequality US has.

On debt brake issue, I don't see how that is so controversial.  Yes perhaps that means tax hikes which they can always in 2025 run on.  But reality is large deficits today are tomorrow's tax hikes and/or spending cuts.  While a different country and a long time ago, Tommy Douglas here in Canada who was founder of our universal health care system never ran a deficit once in his almost 20 years as premier of Saskatchewan yet founded most important social program we have.  His reason was large deficits today meant cuts tomorrow.  In Canada, we have 10 provinces, NDP is our version of SPD and in BC the only province they govern, we had a surplus before COVID-19 and will likely be one of the first provinces to return to balance.  Next door in Alberta which has a very right wing government, they are running much bigger deficits.  Heck in US, some of the worst deficits have been under Republicans.  In UK, their deficit is worse than any European country despite having a Conservative government.  So real world experience suggests lots on left have been good on balanced budgets and plenty on right have been pretty bad.

I realize not just on this post, but a lot of mine draw back to Canadian, American, or British politics, but then again being an English speaker from North America, those are the three countries whose politics I am most familiar with.  Also due to cultural similarities easy to understand other two where I don't live whereas Germany is very different than Canada culturally so similarities much less than US or UK.
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FrancoAgo
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« Reply #2482 on: October 16, 2021, 05:37:34 PM »


If you add up the FDP+CDU/CSU + AFD + Free Voters, that's 51.1% of the vote. It seems like a majority of the populace actually wants conservative policies and it's only because the AFD is too toxic to work with you have a left-wing goverment.

In the party list vote, the alone that count in the german system is
11.5+18.9+5.2+10.3+2.4=48.3
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MRCVzla
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« Reply #2483 on: October 17, 2021, 03:55:58 AM »

On Friday, the final official result will be announced, and some minor changes that affect the seat distribution could happen by then. By then, all re-counts and possible irregularities have to be completed - In Germany, there is no real "law" mandating a recount, but rather a general check of results by the respective authorities, for instance if a party performed disproportionally well in one precinct while another did extremely bad. Such mistakes can happen, for instance if ballots were switched by accident when counting, but they have rarely ever had any impact on the final outcome.

- In the constituency of Munich West, the final result has been announced, and CSU retains that seat by 137 votes (the preliminary results had the CSU ahead by 146 votes). If the Greens had gained that seat instead of the CSU, the Bundestag would have shrunken from 735 to 716 seats thanks to the complicated leveling calculations and the CSU running as a distinct party, which complicates the seat compensation.
- CDU was 738 votes away from gaining another seat, and with most vote tallies completed, it seems like they made it (one county seemed to have report problems, but the precinct results have been added since in the final vote tally) by a comfortable amount of votes - Hence, the Bundestag size will probably increase to 736.
- One seat of the Greens flips from NRW's to Bavaria's list.

Just to reconfirm since a few days ago the Bundeswahlleiter has released the final results, the final size of the Bundestag is 736 as CDU wins another list seat in NRW, also is confirmed the already mentioned Greens' seat flip.

Full report in German with detailed results and seat calculation process updated (PDF): https://www.bundeswahlleiter.de/dam/jcr/cbceef6c-19ec-437b-a894-3611be8ae886/btw21_heft3.pdf
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President Johnson
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« Reply #2484 on: October 17, 2021, 04:04:15 AM »

Another issue that didn't receive a lot of attention since formal trafficlight coalition talks were agreed to: Frank-Walter Steinmeier is now a lot closer to a second term as president. The FDP already expressed support for his reelection in March 2022. Trafficlight parties have a majority of the federal convention that elects the president (all members of the Bundestag and an equal number of electors sent by states, according to Landtag compositions). The Greens are rumored to have favored a woman for the presidency, but I assume they will join SPD and FDP in support for Steinmeier. With a Jamaica coalition, his fate would have been much more in question.

It's very likely the SPD will occupy all of the three of the highest offices in Germany (federal president, president of the Bundestag and chancellor). I guess the party will soon announce a candidate for Bundestag president. Caucus leader Rolf Mützenich's name was floated, however, my prediction is a woman since Steinmeier and Scholz are male.
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« Reply #2485 on: October 17, 2021, 07:18:29 AM »

It's very likely the SPD will occupy all of the three of the highest offices in Germany (federal president, president of the Bundestag and chancellor). I guess the party will soon announce a candidate for Bundestag president.

As of November 1, 2022, the SPD is likely to even occupy the four highest offices, once Hamburg's First Mayor Peter Tschentscher is going to assume the office of Bundesrat President.

Caucus leader Rolf Mützenich's name was floated, however, my prediction is a woman since Steinmeier and Scholz are male.

My first thought was Ullala, but she's already left the Bundestag voluntarily.
But I'm dreading anyway that it will be wannabe-Otto Wels and full-time boozer Martin Schulz who is gonna be offered that post.
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« Reply #2486 on: October 17, 2021, 08:21:51 AM »

Another issue that didn't receive a lot of attention since formal trafficlight coalition talks were agreed to: Frank-Walter Steinmeier is now a lot closer to a second term as president. The FDP already expressed support for his reelection in March 2022. Trafficlight parties have a majority of the federal convention that elects the president (all members of the Bundestag and an equal number of electors sent by states, according to Landtag compositions). The Greens are rumored to have favored a woman for the presidency, but I assume they will join SPD and FDP in support for Steinmeier. With a Jamaica coalition, his fate would have been much more in question.

It's very likely the SPD will occupy all of the three of the highest offices in Germany (federal president, president of the Bundestag and chancellor). I guess the party will soon announce a candidate for Bundestag president. Caucus leader Rolf Mützenich's name was floated, however, my prediction is a woman since Steinmeier and Scholz are male.

As far as women are concerned, I had heard Aydan Özoğuz' name being floated shortly after election day.
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« Reply #2487 on: October 17, 2021, 08:22:19 AM »

It's very likely the SPD will occupy all of the three of the highest offices in Germany (federal president, president of the Bundestag and chancellor). I guess the party will soon announce a candidate for Bundestag president.

As of November 1, 2022, the SPD is likely to even occupy the four highest offices, once Hamburg's First Mayor Peter Tschentscher is going to assume the office of Bundesrat President.

Caucus leader Rolf Mützenich's name was floated, however, my prediction is a woman since Steinmeier and Scholz are male.

My first thought was Ullala, but she's already left the Bundestag voluntarily.
But I'm dreading anyway that it will be wannabe-Otto Wels and full-time boozer Martin Schulz who is gonna be offered that post.

Schulz hasn't touched alcohol in 41 years. Aside from that he even won't be a member of the incoming new Bundestag and is therefore ineligible to become the president.
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« Reply #2488 on: October 17, 2021, 08:42:50 AM »

Aside from that he even won't be a member of the incoming new Bundestag and is therefore ineligible to become the president.

Really? Then I'm relieved. On the other side, with that woman with the unspeakable name, who thinks that German culture doesn't exist, we would come out of the frying pan and into the fire.
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« Reply #2489 on: October 17, 2021, 09:02:51 AM »

Apparently, the program of the future coalition want to abolish coal energy. I'm surprised FDP accept this insanity.

Abolishing coal AND nuclear in an heavy industrial country is...interesting.


Good news for French and Italian industries.


And good news for russian diplomacy.
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #2490 on: October 17, 2021, 09:26:31 AM »
« Edited: October 17, 2021, 10:48:34 AM by It's morning again in Germany »

Apparently, the program of the future coalition want to abolish coal energy. I'm surprised FDP accept this insanity.

Abolishing coal AND nuclear in an heavy industrial country is...interesting.


Good news for French and Italian industries.


And good news for russian diplomacy.

Italy had already shut down all of its nuclear power plants in the wake of Chernobyl and wants to exit coal energy by 2025... at least five years earlier than the incoming German government proposes. Belgium, Switzerland, or Austria are essentially doing the same.
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« Reply #2491 on: October 17, 2021, 09:41:12 AM »

Apparently, the program of the future coalition want to abolish coal energy. I'm surprised FDP accept this insanity.

Abolishing coal AND nuclear in an heavy industrial country is...interesting.


Good news for French and Italian industries.


And good news for russian diplomacy.

What do you think should be done about climate change while keeping coal?
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Astatine
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« Reply #2492 on: October 17, 2021, 10:06:19 AM »

Apparently, the program of the future coalition want to abolish coal energy. I'm surprised FDP accept this insanity.

Abolishing coal AND nuclear in an heavy industrial country is...interesting.


Good news for French and Italian industries.


And good news for russian diplomacy.

Italy had already shut down all of its nuclear power plants in the wake of Chernobyl and wants to exit coal energy by 2025... at least five years earlier than the incoming German government proposes. Belgium, Switzerland, or Austria are essentially doing the same.
Italy can rely on hydro power, same with Austria, and in Belgium, the governing coalition is on verge of falling apart because the liberals are backtracking on the nuclear phase-out (luckily) while the Greens want it done ... and replace them with gas-fired plants.

And Austria always bleats the most when it comes to nuclear energy, but then complained (only recently) that they need more time to reach their climate goals without nuclear and still happily accept clean energy from Krško, Temelin and Dukovany.
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bigic
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« Reply #2493 on: October 17, 2021, 11:38:34 AM »

Elect a left wing government, get the same absurd attitude to fiscal policy.

RIP Europe. You were too conservative, too intellectually impotent and too risk averse to ever have much chance of adapting to the 21st century
Did Germans even elect a left-wing government? Red-Red-Green has no majority, so CDU and/or FDP are needed for a government. Luckily for SPD and Greens, AfD is extremely toxic.

Yes 1998-2005, you had a Red-Green coalition under Schroeder.
I said "even", not "ever".
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Sozialliberal
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« Reply #2494 on: October 17, 2021, 03:12:10 PM »
« Edited: October 17, 2021, 04:17:26 PM by Sozialliberal »

In addition to palandio's maps on the previous page, I'd like to list the constituencies with the lowest and highest support for each coalition. Moreover, I'll try to explain why the constituencies voted that way.

Traffic light coalition (SPD + Greens + FDP)

Highest percentages:
69.3 Hamburg-Eimsbüttel (Hamburg)
67.3 Hamburg-Nord (Hamburg)
67.0 Hamburg-Mitte (Hamburg)
67.0 Stadt Hannover II (Lower Saxony)
66.8 Hamburg-Altona (Hamburg)
66.0 Köln II (North Rhine-Westphalia)
66.0 Oldenburg – Ammerland (Lower Saxony)
65.2 Aurich – Emden (Lower Saxony)
65.2 Stadt Hannover I (Lower Saxony)
64.8 Kiel (Schleswig-Holstein)

Lowest percentages:
30.6 Straubing (Bavaria)
30.9 Deggendorf (Bavaria)
31.2 Rottal-Inn (Bavaria)
31.5 Erzgebirgskreis I (Saxony)
31.6 Schwandorf (Bavaria)
31.7 Görlitz (Saxony)
31.9 Bautzen I (Saxony)
32.5 Sächsische Schweiz-Osterzgebirge (Saxony)
34.1 Altötting (Bavaria)
34.7 Mittelsachsen (Saxony)

Comment: Most strongholds of the traffic light coalition are in urban areas. It is especially strong in Hamburg, a city with a large international seaport. Many foreign sailors and businesspeople have been coming to Hamburg for centuries, which is why a liberal "Live and let live" attitude is more prevalent there than in some other German cities. The worst election results for traffic light can be found in rural, socially conservative areas.
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Jamaica coalition (CDU/CSU + Greens + FDP)

Highest percentages:
65.5 München-Land (Bavaria)
65.4 Köln II (North Rhine-Westphalia)
65.1 Stuttgart I (Baden-Württemberg)
64.3 Düsseldorf I (North Rhine-Westphalia)
64.2 München-Ost (Bavaria)
63.9 München-West/Mitte (Bavaria)
63.8 Münster (North Rhine-Westphalia)
63.5 Starnberg – Landsberg am Lech (Bavaria)
63.3 München-Nord (Bavaria)
62.6 Aachen I (North Rhine-Westphalia)

Lowest percentages:
28.5 Elbe-Elster – Oberspreewald-Lausitz II (Brandenburg)
29.1 Suhl – Schmalkalden-Meiningen – Hildburghausen – Sonneberg (Thuringia)
29.9 Prignitz – Ostprignitz-Ruppin – Havelland I (Brandenburg)
29.9 Gotha – Ilm-Kreis (Thuringia)
30.1 Cottbus – Spree-Neiße (Brandenburg)
30.1 Frankfurt (Oder) – Oder-Spree (Brandenburg)
30.3 Saalfeld-Rudolstadt – Saale-Holzland-Kreis – Saale-Orla-Kreis (Thuringia)
30.4 Uckermark – Barnim I (Brandenburg)
30.6 Gera – Greiz – Altenburger Land (Thuringia)
30.9 Mecklenburgische Seenplatte I – Vorpommern-Greifswald II (Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania)

Comment: CDU/CSU, Greens and FDP all do well with high-income voters. Therefore, the Jamaica coalition received the highest vote shares in affluent constituencies. Conversely, constituencies with low support for Jamaica are less affluent (cf. map of purchasing power in Germany by districts, 2018).
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Red-Red-Green coalition (SPD + Greens + Linke)

Highest percentages:
74.0 Berlin-Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg – Prenzlauer Berg Ost (Berlin)
65.9 Berlin-Mitte (Berlin)
65.3 Hamburg-Mitte (Hamburg)
64.9 Hamburg-Altona (Hamburg)
64.7 Hamburg-Eimsbüttel (Hamburg)
63.8 Stadt Hannover II (Lower Saxony)
62.2 Berlin-Pankow (Berlin)
61.3 Bremen I (Bremen)
61.0 Köln III (North Rhine-Westphalia)
60.6 Oldenburg – Ammerland (Lower Saxony)

Lowest percentages:
23.3 Rottal-Inn (Bavaria)
23.7 Straubing (Bavaria)
24.2 Deggendorf (Bavaria)
25.9 Altötting (Bavaria)
26.3 Schwandorf (Bavaria)
27.9 Donau-Ries (Bavaria)
28.3 Landshut (Bavaria)
28.4 Sächsische Schweiz-Osterzgebirge (Saxony)
28.8 Bautzen I (Saxony)
28.9 Erzgebirgskreis I (Saxony)

Comment: Unsurprisingly, Red-Red-Green is most popular in Germany's most hipsterish constituency. It's interesting to see that some RRG strongholds are also traffic light strongholds. Likewise, Red-Red-Green's weakest results are in rural, socially conservative areas.
⎯⎯⎯⎯⎯⎯⎯⎯⎯⎯⎯⎯⎯⎯⎯⎯⎯⎯⎯⎯⎯⎯⎯⎯⎯⎯⎯⎯⎯⎯⎯⎯⎯⎯⎯⎯⎯⎯⎯⎯⎯⎯⎯⎯⎯⎯⎯⎯⎯⎯⎯⎯

Grand coalition (SPD + CDU/CSU)

Highest percentages:
64.8 Mittelems (Lower Saxony)
63.9 Unterems (Lower Saxony)
63.8 St. Wendel (Saarland)
63.1 Cloppenburg – Vechta (Lower Saxony)
62.9 Borken II (North Rhine-Westphalia)
62.5 Steinfurt I – Borken I (North Rhine-Westphalia)
62.2 Hochsauerlandkreis (North Rhine-Westphalia)
61.5 Goslar – Northeim – Osterode (Lower Saxony)
61.2 Cuxhaven – Stade II (Lower Saxony)
61.1 Coesfeld – Steinfurt II (North Rhine-Westphalia)

Lowest percentages:
26.2 Berlin-Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg – Prenzlauer Berg Ost (Berlin)
30.1 Dresden II – Bautzen II (Saxony)
32.6 Berlin-Mitte (Berlin)
32.6 Sächsische Schweiz-Osterzgebirge (Saxony)
33.7 Berlin-Pankow (Berlin)
34.0 Leipzig II (Saxony)
34.4 Dresden I (Saxony)
35.0 Berlin-Lichtenberg (Berlin)
35.1 Görlitz (Saxony)
35.2 Meißen (Saxony)

Comment: The parties of the grand coalition got their best results in rural constituencies. As many younger people are moving away to the big cities, the rural population has a higher average age. Because older people tend to be more set in their ways, they're more loyal to the parties they're voting for. If someone has been voting CDU/CSU or SPD all their life, they're more likely to continue doing so. The constituencies with the weakest support for the grand coalition can be divided into two groups: The first group is urban constituencies with a very young population. The second group is rural constituencies in the former German Democratic Republic (commonly known as East Germany). Obviously, the AfD greatly cut into the grand coalition's vote share in the east, especially in Saxony. That's partly because the people in the east couldn't participate in democratic elections before 1990, which is why the older people there feel less attached to political parties than their counterparts in the west.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #2495 on: October 17, 2021, 04:46:22 PM »

Apparently, the program of the future coalition want to abolish coal energy. I'm surprised FDP accept this insanity.

The deep pits are all gone now and what's left are a certain number of large lignite opencast mines, and those are extremely and increasingly controversial even without the emissions issues.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #2496 on: October 18, 2021, 12:15:17 AM »

Apparently, the program of the future coalition want to abolish coal energy. I'm surprised FDP accept this insanity.

Abolishing coal AND nuclear in an heavy industrial country is...interesting.


Good news for French and Italian industries.


And good news for russian diplomacy.

The litmus test won't be about coal; the crucial question will be if the FDP is going to cave in to pressure from SPD and Greens regarding the speed limit question...
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mileslunn
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« Reply #2497 on: October 18, 2021, 12:47:50 AM »

Apparently, the program of the future coalition want to abolish coal energy. I'm surprised FDP accept this insanity.

Abolishing coal AND nuclear in an heavy industrial country is...interesting.


Good news for French and Italian industries.


And good news for russian diplomacy.

The litmus test won't be about coal; the crucial question will be if the FDP is going to cave in to pressure from SPD and Greens regarding the speed limit question...

I sure hope not.  One of the things I love about renting a car in Europe and driving in Germany is fact I can drive at over 200 km/h.  Its only place on earth I can legally do this, so I really hope that stays.
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« Reply #2498 on: October 18, 2021, 03:27:30 AM »

I sure hope not.  One of the things I love about renting a car in Europe and driving in Germany is fact I can drive at over 200 km/h.  Its only place on earth I can legally do this, so I really hope that stays.

Tell that to the SPD, the Greens and the Linke. Their yearning for a speed limit on German Autobahns has become pathologic in the meantime. If a foreign red avatar opposes a speed limit, that ought to give them pause for thought...





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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #2499 on: October 18, 2021, 03:39:32 AM »

When is Schulz likely to become chancellor? (educated guess on basis of what we know right now)

You mean Scholz. Schulz's train has already crashed with great panache.

So there is a 90% chance or so Merkel becomes longest serving Chancellor of post-WWII Germany?

At this juncture I'd like to discreetly cross-reference to my already four-year-old poll... Wink
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