🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[Gass3268]

Is there any place where I could see how the math worked in this election for the Party list seats?

Try this one: https://www.mandatsrechner.de/

Thanks, but I'm looking for like how actual calculations/equations that were run so I could run an example in a non-German scenario.

[President Johnson]

Is there any place where I could see how the math worked in this election for the Party list seats?

Try this one: https://www.mandatsrechner.de/

Thanks, but I'm looking for like how actual calculations/equations that were run so I could run an example in a non-German scenario.

This site at least has some features how you can allocate seats in various different modes: https://wahlinfo.de/probewahl/sitzverteilung/

[buritobr]

Is there any possibility of the Ampel coalition be confirmed tommorow?

[Astatine]

Is there any possibility of the Ampel coalition be confirmed tommorow?

The plan is to get that far in the pre-negotiations ("Sondierungen") right now that on Friday a conclusion might be driven and the parties would get into the formal coalition negotiations. But it might take more time.

[President Johnson]

Is there any possibility of the Ampel coalition be confirmed tommorow?

No, the talks will resume Wednesday and Friday. On one occasion Scholz won't be present because he has an international meeting in Washington DC as finance minister. The parties are expected to make a statement on Friday. Actual coalition negotiations could start as soon as next week. This schedule was already agreed upon last Friday.

Today's meeting went smoothly according to sources and lasted ten hours. There were no leaks so far what suggests the talks were conducted very professionally and with mutual trust, despite the many policy issues that need to be resolved.

[Gass3268]

Is there any place where I could see how the math worked in this election for the Party list seats?

Try this one: https://www.mandatsrechner.de/

Thanks, but I'm looking for like how actual calculations/equations that were run so I could run an example in a non-German scenario.

This site at least has some features how you can allocate seats in various different modes: https://wahlinfo.de/probewahl/sitzverteilung/

Still not it, but thank you, I'll have to keep looking.

[MRCVzla]

Is there any place where I could see how the math worked in this election for the Party list seats?

I found a PDF file of the Bundeswahlleiter with the step-by-step math process of calculating seats with the preliminary results of this year' election (probably a new file will be done with the final results): https://www.bundeswahlleiter.de/dam/jcr/bf33c285-ee92-455a-a9c3-8d4e3a1ee4b4/btw21_sitzberechnung.pdf

The file I found in a site related to the elections of the Bundestag of the state of Baden-Württemberg (in german): https://www.bundestagswahl-bw.de/sitzberechnung-btw

[President Johnson]

A new poll, that confirms previous ones after the election. SPD easily the strongest party, while the CDU continues to decline. Greens and FDP stable in the mid teens, slowly catching up to the Union. Die Linke is on the edge to become irrelevant.

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1447598007386578948

[buritobr]

Do you think some young people will vote for the CDU when they get older?
If not, the CDU is in a serious trouble

[Gass3268]

Is there any place where I could see how the math worked in this election for the Party list seats?

I found a PDF file of the Bundeswahlleiter with the step-by-step math process of calculating seats with the preliminary results of this year' election (probably a new file will be done with the final results): https://www.bundeswahlleiter.de/dam/jcr/bf33c285-ee92-455a-a9c3-8d4e3a1ee4b4/btw21_sitzberechnung.pdf

The file I found in a site related to the elections of the Bundestag of the state of Baden-Württemberg (in german): https://www.bundestagswahl-bw.de/sitzberechnung-btw

Gonna need to use some Google Translate, but this is what I was looking for! Thank you!

[palandio]

Do you think some young people will vote for the CDU when they get older?
If not, the CDU is in a serious trouble

In the past I believed in "people becoming more conservative when they get older", but others on atlas prompted me to take a closer look at the representative electoral statistics from past elections and I saw that historically evidence is very thin. (If you count the FDP as right-of-center for which there are good justifications then the vote of young people actually was ideologically not very far from the average this time.)

On the other hand party allegiance in general is indeed decreasing, particularly among younger voters, but not only. Hence in principle young people could vote for the CDU in future. Greens and FDP have good reasons not to take the youth vote for granted.

But the disproportionately huge losses of the CDU among young voters didn't come by accident. A big majority of young voters apparently felt that the CDU cared about them less than about everything else. To change that the CDU would have to change and currently you can get serious doubt that it is capable of that.

[President Johnson]

News about government formation: General Secretaries Lars Klingbeil (SPD), Volker Wissing (FDP) and Michael Kellner (Greens) gave a joint statement today that after 14 hours of consultations yesterday and today. So, there's likely going to be a decision after the next meeting, scheduled for Friday. All three will summarize the talks over the next days and then see whether there's basis for actual coalition negotiations that could start as soon as next week. Secrecy was again agreed to and it very much seems all three parties are keeping their word (which is very important to build trust). All three spoke of constructive talks again, Kellner said differences in some areas got smaller and there's now more understanding for each side's positions.

Perhaps talks could have resumed sooner, but Olaf Scholz had to leave today in the afternoon for the IWF's annual meeting of finance ministers that takes place in Washington DC. He'll be back on Friday.


Another story in the news: There's some controversy over seat arrangements in the Bundestag's plenary chamber between Union and FDP now, because the latter doesn't want to be seated next to AfD. They already complained about that in 2017. The current seat order from left to right is Linke-SPD-Greens-Union-FDP-AfD. Free Democrats now want to move to the center between Union and Greens, though the Union vehemently opposes that.

At the new Bundestag's first meeting on October 26 the factions will be seated in the same order as during the previous term. However, the seat order could be changed for the FDP in case of a trafficlight coalition. All it takes is a majority vote and SPD-Greens-FDP have a comfortable majority. The governing parties in a trafficlight coalition would then be seated next to each other in the chamber's center.

[DL]

Its interesting that both the Greens and the FDP do so much better among 18-29 year olds. I have a pretty clear stereotype in my mind of a German 20-something who votes Green (don't Germans call them "muesli-fressers"?:-))

But who are the 20-somethings who vote FDP? I'm pictured uptight young (mostly men and some women) who studied economy and commerce and who waddle around with briefcases and dream of jobs as real estate agents or working in a bank tower in Frankfurt.

Am I right?

[Astatine]

Its interesting that both the Greens and the FDP do so much better among 18-29 year olds. I have a pretty clear stereotype in my mind of a German 20-something who votes Green (don't Germans call them "muesli-fressers"?:-))

But who are the 20-somethings who vote FDP? I'm pictured uptight young (mostly men and some women) who studied economy and commerce and who waddle around with briefcases and dream of jobs as real estate agents or working in a bank tower in Frankfurt.

Am I right?

Well, every young generation has its center-right voters, it's just that the CDU is that much out of touch with nowadays' new voters that most of them opt for the FDP instead.

While there are definitely some who fit that description, some others are just enchanted by the rhetorical talent of Christian Lindner (who is arguably one biggest rhetorical talents in federal politics right now), but the FDP's niche lane as a somewhat reasonable (pro vaccines, generally not too opposed to mask mandates, in favor of less buerocracy and better digital infrastructure in health authorities for instance) but yet against tough measures (lockdowns, curfews) party on Covid has probably won them a good chunk of younger voters.

Together with the Greens, the FDP is the party with the most extreme age gap, and interestingly, its voter structure based on age has developed a lot over the last years while the Greens were always stronger amongst young voters:

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Its interesting that both the Greens and the FDP do so much better among 18-29 year olds. I have a pretty clear stereotype in my mind of a German 20-something who votes Green (don't Germans call them "muesli-fressers"?:-))

Young Germans, like the broader German electorate, are a very volatile voting group and have little problem swinging back and forth. Remember that the CDU romped amongst young voters in 2013 and 2017 (even if a little bit less than 2013)! The CDU got 34% of the 18-29 year old vote in 2013 and 25% in 2017 (compared to 24% and 19% for second-place SPD, respectively). There was definitely a big CDU --> Green swing amongst young Germans over the past 8 years, along with smaller swings to other parties such as the FDP.

Anecdotally, probably a majority of my German friends support the FDP and CDU, which is a natural result of going to business school. The margin has really been cut down since moving to Berlin, but still, the bürgerlich parties have the advantage. There is also stereotype that professions such as medicine and law also skews towards the CDU and FDP, and this is backed up by some other analyses I managed to find (unfortunately all in German). Obviously again this depends on the role, income, and age (older, high-earning dentists vs. a young nurse who just started), but the trend is true. Fields such as education are not as left-skewing as you would think. The CDU also doesn't perform badly amongst salaried civil servants.

I have also learned to assume that basically anyone from south/southwestern Germany is also much more likely to vote CDU than in the rest of the country, regardless of their age and occupation. I have met quite a few students and also coworkers who are from Bayern or Baden-Württemburg and support the CDU. It's a cultural bubble of conservative Catholicism with some conservative Protestantism thrown in, not hard to see how young people who grow up in that environment would support the CDU. The CDU is also not antagonistic on cultural issues, and I have to admit they have a record of presiding over much of Germany's prosperity, so again not hard to see how even many young people view the CDU as "good" or "okay", even if they are not so much into the Christian conservative image the CDU likes to project.

But who are the 20-somethings who vote FDP? I'm pictured uptight young (mostly men and some women) who studied economy and commerce and who waddle around with briefcases and dream of jobs as real estate agents or working in a bank tower in Frankfurt.

Am I right?

Obviously the businessperson stereotype carries some truth, but my understanding is that since the hard lockdown of late-2020/early-2021, the FDP has gained across all age categories but extremely so amongst young people. There is a tiredness amongst young people, with many feeling that everything, including their economic prospects, is being sacrificed on the alter of saving the elderly ahead of an election. Obviously not a majority, but there is a sentiment of resentment and frustration. While affluent young people obviously went strongly for the Greens and FDP regardless of the pandemic, I would not be surprised if the FDP managed to gain a lot even amongst more downscale young people who otherwise would not support them if 2020-2021 didn't happen.

Before the pandemic, I did ask some of my friends about their thoughts on the current state of how things are in Germany. Many just shrugged and said, "Things are alright". Merkel is widely respected, even amongst left-leaning young people. She's the only leader that many people under 30 have any real memories of. There is, however, a deep frustration with things like German bureaucracy, the total lack of digitalization in the country, a tax system that penalizes being young and single, a welfare state that is skewed towards families and the elderly, the demographic cliff Germany is facing, climate change, and a general sense of stagnation.

They view the FDP as a modernizing force that is ultimately non-threatening to them on cultural issues while rebalancing the economic system to treat young people like them better, and a party that wants to modernize the state and resolve the blatantly inefficient and time-wasting way of doing business in government bureaucracy that causes such headaches.

I honestly have to sympathize with the frustration, even if I disagree with the solutions of the FDP: I see that income + payroll taxes consume 36% of my income here compared to 23% in Sweden, see high capital gains taxes make private savings and investing less worth it, have to f**king stand in line at the Bürgeramt to change my address in the Year of Our Lord 2021, constant receive notices in the mail and yet no answers to an email or phone call, hear about infrastructure projects that are promised but always delivered behind schedule and over budget, seem my rent increase 13% in one year, pay the highest energy prices in Europe, and see high internet + phone bills in part because of government suppression of competition to protect former state monopolies (cough Telekom cough). Ultimately I view Germany, like many continental European countries, as completely stagnant countries and merely coasting on the diminishing returns of the past 40 years while doing little to address the coming crises of the next few decades. I don't think taking a chainsaw to the social and economic model is the way to go, but I get the frustration and desire for change.

However, I doubt any of them want a single-party FDP government. Jamaica seemed to be pretty popular, and Traffic Light seems like something they could swallow.

But again, this is purely anecdotal from my experiences.

[mileslunn]

Its interesting that both the Greens and the FDP do so much better among 18-29 year olds. I have a pretty clear stereotype in my mind of a German 20-something who votes Green (don't Germans call them "muesli-fressers"?:-))

But who are the 20-somethings who vote FDP? I'm pictured uptight young (mostly men and some women) who studied economy and commerce and who waddle around with briefcases and dream of jobs as real estate agents or working in a bank tower in Frankfurt.

Am I right?

Somewhat, but I also think even a lot of lower income ones voted for them.  They opposed lockdowns although not other public health restrictions and generally speaking lockdowns were much harder on people in their 20s who tend to be out a lot more than older people.  While not all of them, I suspect some voted FDP over that and may not necessarily agree with them on other economic issues.  Because Germany tends to result in coalitions that are usually close to centre, younger voters who do have same loyalty to a party as older ones will easily crossover for a variety of reasons.  Its not like US where most always vote for a party on one side of the spectrum  There isn't the same hatred towards left or right that you see in English speaking world from other side.  Personality and stance on issues and general competence rather than where one falls on political spectrum play in bigger role in how Germans vote.  Because all parties close enough to centre, ideology matters less than in places that are more polarized. 

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Finally managed to compile all of ZDF's exit polls (why does nobody in this industry make it easy??), I'm a little bit suspicious of how just how high "sonstige" is in the under 45 crowd, but otherwise seems more or less what you would expect

[Astatine]

Its interesting that both the Greens and the FDP do so much better among 18-29 year olds. I have a pretty clear stereotype in my mind of a German 20-something who votes Green (don't Germans call them "muesli-fressers"?:-))

But who are the 20-somethings who vote FDP? I'm pictured uptight young (mostly men and some women) who studied economy and commerce and who waddle around with briefcases and dream of jobs as real estate agents or working in a bank tower in Frankfurt.

Am I right?

Somewhat, but I also think even a lot of lower income ones voted for them.  They opposed lockdowns although not other public health restrictions and generally speaking lockdowns were much harder on people in their 20s who tend to be out a lot more than older people.  While not all of them, I suspect some voted FDP over that and may not necessarily agree with them on other economic issues.  Because Germany tends to result in coalitions that are usually close to centre, younger voters who do have same loyalty to a party as older ones will easily crossover for a variety of reasons.  Its not like US where most always vote for a party on one side of the spectrum  There isn't the same hatred towards left or right that you see in English speaking world from other side.  Personality and stance on issues and general competence rather than where one falls on political spectrum play in bigger role in how Germans vote.  Because all parties close enough to centre, ideology matters less than in places that are more polarized. 

That's true. The FDP interestingly increased their vote share among "workers" (blue collar mostly) and unemployed, while suffering a big dip among pensioners, making it their worst group when considering occupation. The perception and stance on age-related issues like Covid-19 especially seemed to have played a bigger role than the priorities during the campaign might suggest.

[H. Ross Peron]

Are there any numbers on how working-class German youths voted specifically? Would be curious to see if there's any big differences between those with and without immigrant backgrounds and if FDP made gains even with working-class youths of immigrant background due to stances on lockdown etc.

[mileslunn]

Are there any numbers on how working-class German youths voted specifically? Would be curious to see if there's any big differences between those with and without immigrant backgrounds and if FDP made gains even with working-class youths of immigrant background due to stances on lockdown etc.

Wouldn't be surprised if a lot in the hospitality sector voted FDP despite fact people who work there tend to usually lean left and are lower income.  That sector was hardest hit by lockdowns so would be understandable many would vote FDP over that.  Generally you tend to think of young females being overwhelmingly left wing, but I could see FDP doing quite well amongst young females over this issue.  Does anyone have exit polls with gender splits by age?  I know in English speaking world, males 18-29 tend to quite a bit more favourable to parties on right than females 18-29 are so be interested if same in Germany or not.

[Astatine]

Are there any numbers on how working-class German youths voted specifically? Would be curious to see if there's any big differences between those with and without immigrant backgrounds and if FDP made gains even with working-class youths of immigrant background due to stances on lockdown etc.

The publically available exit polls don't go that much into detail, either because the sample size is too small to derive accurate numbers for such small sub-samples... or because if someone is really interested in those numbers, one would have to buy the full election report analyses from the respective pollsters.

Also, immigration background is a metric that doesn't provide as much substantial information as one might assume. Official demographic statistics don't include "ethnic background" or even "race" (a category name that is not used in German for obvious reasons) for Germans, but only for people who have another citizenship (...who obviously can't vote).
At least im the demographic statistics I have seen so far there is no further separation (citizenship at birth due to foreign parents vs. naturalized German), and there are obvious differences between those groups. Even I am included in the "Germans with migration background" category and I doubt my voting patterns or intentions differ a lot from fellow Germans my age without migration background.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[mileslunn]

Is the middle part that is all red one large conurbation being built up in the entire area or is there some countryside in that.  Likewise for the black areas along periphery, how rural are they?  I know they have lower population densities but still seem to have plenty of smaller cities.  I have driven through the black areas and seemed mostly countryside but usually Autobahns in Germany tend to have trees along the side to block off side so hard to tell.

[President Johnson]

Another poll with the Union below 20%. The collapse continues, while Greens and FDP gain more ground. SPD is stable or slightly climbing. A recent poll also found that Scholz is even leading Söder by six points in chancellor preference (Laschet gets completely demolished, 52% to 8%).

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1448666331449024513

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Is the middle part that is all red one large conurbation being built up in the entire area or is there some countryside in that.

That's the Ruhr (in German: Ruhrgebeit), an endless set of industrial cities and former mining towns crammed together one after another and vaguely arranged alongside three rivers running westwards into the Rhine. It's named for the River Ruhr even though that river actually flows along its southern edge because coal seams were easier to access there and so it was developed first: industrial development and urban growth then followed the coal industry northwards. It isn't particularly noted for its pastoral scenery, though there's a bit of countryside on the fringes of the conurbation and they've done all sorts with land reclaimed from industrial degradation in places.

Likewise for the black areas along periphery, how rural are they?  I know they have lower population densities but still seem to have plenty of smaller cities.  I have driven through the black areas and seemed mostly countryside but usually Autobahns in Germany tend to have trees along the side to block off side so hard to tell.

It does depend a bit on what you mean by rural, but all gemeinden in NRW include at least one (and often more) substantial market town. The main feature of the places with the largest CDU leads on the map is that they are also very, very Catholic: the hinterland of Paderborn for instance. These were actually the places where modern Political Catholicism in Germany was born, back in the 19th century.