Which Party Will Control Congress?

[nhmagic]

Senate: Democrats
House: Republicans

Healthcare reform will cause the democrats to lose in a landslide in 2010.  They openly declared war on the American people with their vote yesterday.  Republicans will win around 50 house seats and 6-7 senate seats.

[nhmagic]

Senate: Democrats
House: Republicans

Healthcare reform will cause the democrats to lose in a landslide in 2010.  They openly declared war on the American people with their vote yesterday.  Republicans will win around 50 house seats and 6-7 senate seats.

Yeah, not passing healthcare reform helped Democrats greatly in 1994, right?

That is only one of two explanations and we are going to find out which one is correct in 2010.

Democrats go by that interpretation.
Republicans say that it was because they were trying to pass something that Americans did not want.

Americans did not want this bill that the house passed - that much is clear and I tend to think the second explanation will be the one that is correct.

Additionally, we don't just have to flip congressional seats in Republican leaning districts to win a majority.  Dem leaning districts will be up for grabs just as republican leaning districts were in 2006.  So we won't need to win every single one of the Bush/McCain congressional districts back to assemble the majority.  Obviously, that will be part of it - a decent size part, but we will pick up Obama districts as well.

[nhmagic]

Senate: Democrats
House: Republicans

Healthcare reform will cause the democrats to lose in a landslide in 2010.  They openly declared war on the American people with their vote yesterday.  Republicans will win around 50 house seats and 6-7 senate seats.

Yeah, not passing healthcare reform helped Democrats greatly in 1994, right?

That is only one of two explanations and we are going to find out which one is correct in 2010.

Democrats go by that interpretation.
Republicans say that it was because they were trying to pass something that Americans did not want.

Americans did not want this bill that the house passed - that much is clear and I tend to think the second explanation will be the one that is correct.

Additionally, we don't just have to flip congressional seats in Republican leaning districts to win a majority.  Dem leaning districts will be up for grabs just as republican leaning districts were in 2006.  So we won't need to win every single one of the Bush/McCain congressional districts back to assemble the majority.  Obviously, that will be part of it - a decent size part, but we will pick up Obama districts as well.

1.  The American public wanted the public option

2.  The American public still views the Dems in MUCH better shape than the GOP. 

3.  While they weren't all that thrilled with the way Obama or the Dems handled the health care situation, they rated FAR higher than the GOP.

4.  Anyone who thinks the GOP can pick up over 50 seats is a moron.

1. No matter how many times you guys say this the polling does not bear you out, whether its Rasmussen or Gallup or PPP.  And irregardless of the public option, all the polling showed that Americans did not support the bill.

2 If the GOP runs the right candidates in the right districts, we will do fine.  The public does not view the Dems like they do Obama, and their and his numbers are decreasing by the day.

3.Where?

4. Anyone who thinks they cant is an idiot who cant read the tea leaves.

[nhmagic]

Senate: Democrats
House: Republicans

Healthcare reform will cause the democrats to lose in a landslide in 2010.  They openly declared war on the American people with their vote yesterday.  Republicans will win around 50 house seats and 6-7 senate seats.

Yeah, not passing healthcare reform helped Democrats greatly in 1994, right?

That is only one of two explanations and we are going to find out which one is correct in 2010.

Democrats go by that interpretation.
Republicans say that it was because they were trying to pass something that Americans did not want.

Americans did not want this bill that the house passed - that much is clear and I tend to think the second explanation will be the one that is correct.

Additionally, we don't just have to flip congressional seats in Republican leaning districts to win a majority.  Dem leaning districts will be up for grabs just as republican leaning districts were in 2006.  So we won't need to win every single one of the Bush/McCain congressional districts back to assemble the majority.  Obviously, that will be part of it - a decent size part, but we will pick up Obama districts as well.

1.  The American public wanted the public option

2.  The American public still views the Dems in MUCH better shape than the GOP.  

3.  While they weren't all that thrilled with the way Obama or the Dems handled the health care situation, they rated FAR higher than the GOP.

4.  Anyone who thinks the GOP can pick up over 50 seats is a moron.

1. No matter how many times you guys say this the polling does not bear you out, whether its Rasmussen or Gallup or PPP.  And irregardless of the public option, all the polling showed that Americans did not support the bill.

2 If the GOP runs the right candidates in the right districts, we will do fine.  The public does not view the Dems like they do Obama, and their and his numbers are decreasing by the day.

3.Where?

4. Anyone who thinks they cant is an idiot who cant read the tea leaves.

1. CNN/OR 10/30-11/1

"Now thinking specifically about the health insurance plans available to most Americans, would you favor or oppose creating a public health insurance option administered by the federal government that would compete with plans offered by private health insurance companies"

Favor 55%
Oppose 44%

Ipsos 10/29-11/1

"Creation of a public entity to directly compete with existing health insurance companies."

Favor 51%
Oppose 43%

NBC/WSJ 10/22-10/25

"And thinking about one aspect of the debate on health care legislation -- Would you favor or oppose creating a public health care plan administered by the federal government that would compete directly with private health insurance companies?"

Favor 48%
Oppose 42%

Gallup 10/16-10/19

"Now thinking about some of the specifics of health care legislation being considered: If Congress passes a health care bill, do you think it should or should not include a public, government-run insurance plan to compete with plans offered by private insurance companies?

Should 50%
Should Not 46%

ABC/WP 10/15-10/18
"Would you support or oppose having the government create a new health insurance plan to compete with private health insurance plans?"

Support 57%
Oppose 40%


2. Obama's numbers have been in the low 50's for about 3 months.  Really not going down.  As far as how the parties rate

Dems

NBC/WSJ 10/22-10/25
"Now I'm going to read you the names of several public figures and organizations, and I'd like you to rate your feelings toward each one as either very positive, somewhat positive, neutral, somewhat negative, or very negative. If you don't know the name, please just say so. The Democratic Party.

Very Positive 14%
Somewhat Positive 28%
Neutral 20%
Somewhat Negative 14%
Very Negative 22%

Total Positive 42%
Total Negative 36%
Positive - Negative +6%

CNN/OR 10/16-10/18
Favorable 53%
Unfavorable 41%

GOP

NBC/WSJ 10/22-10/25
"Now I'm going to read you the names of several public figures and organizations, and I'd like you to rate your feelings toward each one as either very positive, somewhat positive, neutral, somewhat negative, or very negative. If you don't know the name, please just say so. The Republican Party.

Very Positive 6%
Somewhat Positive 19%
Neutral 27%
Somewhat Negative 23%
Very Negative 23%
Total Positive 25%
Total Negative 46%
Positive - Negative -21%

CNN/OR
"Next, we'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of these people -- or if you have never heard of them. The Republican Party."

Favorable 36%
Unfavorable 54%

3  
NBC/WSJ 10/22-10/25

"Do you generally approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing in handling the issue of health care reform?"

Approve 43%
Disapprove 48%

"Do you generally approve or disapprove of the way that Republicans in Congress are handling the issue of health care reform?"

Approve 23%
Disapprove 64%

CNN/ OR  10/16-10/18

"Who do you trust more to handle major changes in the country's health care system: Barack Obama or the Republicans in Congress?"

Barack Obama 50%
Republicans in Congress 34%

4.  Yes anyone who thinks the GOP will pick up 50 seats is a moron.  Obama's ratings are far better than Bush's in 06.  Yet you expect the GOP to pick up more seats than the Dems did in 06/  The Dems still have the advantage in the Generic Ballot, the Democratic Party is rated higher.  All of these things = thinking the GOP will pick up 50 seats = Moron

5.  Game, Set, Match

Sorry buddy, try again using numbers from respectable pollsters.  The only respectable pollster you have in there is Gallup and that is on one question out of all others.  Gallup's question was terribly worded as well - its asking people to consider other aspects, aspects of the bill they may or may not know to ask a question on the public option.  Additionally, party leanings have changed dramatically since last year and Gallup still surveys more democrat leaners (12 pts worth), when the leaning gap has at most been at 6 points, at most its at 3 points right now.  I am sure, however, that you took a painstaking amount of time assembling the most favorable polls to match what you said without resorting to putting in the KOS polls and looking uncredible.