Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Badger]

Do American communists realize Russia isn't communist anymore?

https://twitter.com/medicalmomentum/status/1502916076560072704?s=20&t=973mwn...

WTF is this sh**t?

Every person in that room is either a Fed or an informant.

You underestimate how stupid contrarianism can become.

Impossible. I'm on Atlas.

[Badger]

German ministry of defense has made its first decision on how to use its new 100 billion Euro budget.

https://mobile.twitter.com/AFP/status/1503299897868664833

good news for everyone (except German taxpayers and Russia)!

I thought the Germans were banned from running any military.

They will be straight into Poland.

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Russia Imposes Sanctions on Biden, Blinken.  Sanctions would block entry to Russia, freeze any assets there

I find it hilarious that Hillary Clinton is randomly on the list as well.

https://twitter.com/HillaryClinton/status/1503752794158911493?s=20&t=VBC552r...

 Hate her all you want, but Hilary has had he has had one of the most consistently funny Twitter feeds in Washington for years now. Don't know What ratio of tweets are staff staff written versus personal, but whoever authors them needs to be commended.

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CNN says the NATO "deconfliction" line with Russia is not working.

Sorry, what? Can you please expand on that Torie?

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Financial Times reports that Ukraine and Russia have made significant progress on a tentative 15-point peace plan including a ceasefire and Russian withdrawal if Kyiv declares neutrality and accepts limits on its armed forces, according to three people involved in the talks.

Armed forces limits?!
That is a terrible idea. Why should Ukraine accept that?

 I generally agree,  But the devil is in the details. If it's a high threshold and there are more than adequate International security guarantees, it might serve Ukraine's needs in order to facilitate peace.

[Badger]

When Putin stops blasting Ukraine cities, that will be a signal that a real deal is out there. Until then, I suspect its deflective noise. I still have trouble believing that Putin will sign a piece of paper wherein his forces leave, and Ukraine gets armed to the teeth on a subsidized basis, and some kind of security guarantee. Sure the security guarantee might not be honored, but in the interim it is a far better place than now, and Putin is not going to be around forever. But I don't see Putin accepting that until he gets pretty desperate.

I wonder if there is some kind of wind down where Russian troops stay in place, how sustainable that is for Russia.

The blasting won't stop until the second a deal is made. He wants maximum leverage and pressure on Ukraine.

However,  the positive messages from Ukrainian negotiators are quite heartened.

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https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1504157074372108300?s=20&t=Zf2RGNOBURt...

Also, I am not the 'Oryx' who is nicely posting military updates on twitter btw.

 This is effing excellent. I hope most literal kidnapping criminals posing as real soldiers who Committed this war crime kidnapping him all died a very gory and painful death.

These were not some poor conscripts who have nothing to do with Putin or his foreign policy, but special forces with the ugliest reputation in the world.. H*** is just a little bit Fuller with their deaths

[Badger]

Russian officers at the front: "Don't worry lads, the South Ossetians are coming!"

https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1504056749229326343?s=20&t=YP_9vqyiY3H...

South Ossetia apparently has 2,500 active duty personnel and fifteen tanks:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armed_Forces_of_South_Ossetia

 And presumably they're not sending their entire force, or even most of it.

[Badger]

Meanwhile... totally get it that the overwhelming majority of y'all don't like me, don't agree with my posts, and basically have me on virtual ignore, not planning on shutting up quite yet (Regardless of whomever the narc was who snitched me out last night... Karma will beat your Dogma any hour of any day of any week).

What gives you that impression?

It's okay.

I know what I did and accept responsibility for my actions and will attempt to "shut up" to the best of my abilities.

Not about me on this thread, although in the almost 50 years of my life in all sorts of IRL experiences never ever been a snitch or a narc, so let that lay on the moral consciousness of whomever went down that route.

Can't discuss this topic any more within this venue, but as it is suspect have been wasting way too many hours of my life providing reports from various media outlets, rather than shifting my energy elsewhere on broader Social Media outlets.

Will continue to lurk and occasionally provide updates, but don't really expect much in the way of actual written word content anymore except within extremely condensed content, which effectively for substantive content is the equivalent of neutering a male cat.

 Whatever it is, man, it can't be that bad. I for one think you're a great poster and your posts about this war are particularly valuable.

[Badger]

Between this and the whole encouraging patent theft i can't help but think that even if/when sanctions get lifted from Russia. Companies may be more careful in the future about doing business in Russia now.

Russia is seizing hundreds of commercial jets owned by US and European leasing companies, a further sign of the challenges the country's airline industry faces due to sanctions following its invasion of Ukraine.

President Vladimir Putin signed a law Monday as part of the government's anti-sanction measures that will allow Russian airlines to register planes leased from foreign companies in Russia, where they will be issued local certificates of airworthiness, according to a statement from the Kremlin.

The bill will make it possible for Russian airlines to keep their foreign leased aircraft and operate the planes on domestic routes, while making it harder for foreign companies to reclaim their jets without Russian government approval.

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2022/03/16/business/russia-aircraft-seizure/index.html

 Oh, definitely. And add on the  The fact that the Russian stock market has been closed down For Over 3 weeks now, and the Government seriously considered and hasn't even yet ruled out nationalizing out nationalizing foreign businesses that stopped production there, I can't comprehend how Foreign investment in Russia doesn't Get completely decimated for the next several years at least assuming Putin remains in power. I think it's going to take a change of leadership to a very 2nd coming of glasnost/parastroika  Before Western companies start even very cautiously dipping their toes in again.

 Would anyone disagree? This is one time I would actually like Jaichind's input.

[Badger]

https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1504157074372108300?s=20&t=Zf2RGNOBURt...

Also, I am not the 'Oryx' who is nicely posting military updates on twitter btw.

 This is effing excellent. I hope most literal kidnapping criminals posing as real soldiers who Committed this war crime kidnapping him all died a very gory and painful death.

These were not some poor conscripts who have nothing to do with Putin or his foreign policy, but special forces with the ugliest reputation in the world.. H*** is just a little bit Fuller with their deaths

It was a prisoner swap - the Russians got back nine men in exchange.

:

Oh well, at least the Mayor is safe. Bad precident though

[Badger]

The Case Of Russia's Apparently Back From The Dead Black Sea Warship

Tl;dr the rocket barrage against the Vasily Bykov mentioned a few days ago most likely didn't work. Ukraine was right to request anti-ship missiles.

The real takeaway from this article is that many Ukrainian reports of casualties, battlefield victories, etc, are exaggerated or outright fake news.

That  is not the point of the article at all.  It explicitly was limited was limited to saying that the reported sinking of a Russian vessel, which was reported as "probably" sunk, apparently was only damaged. There's nothing whatsoever in there about all the other reports of large amounts of Russian troop and equipment losses being over-reported.

[Badger]

The Case Of Russia's Apparently Back From The Dead Black Sea Warship

Tl;dr the rocket barrage against the Vasily Bykov mentioned a few days ago most likely didn't work. Ukraine was right to request anti-ship missiles.

The real takeaway from this article is that many Ukrainian reports of casualties, battlefield victories, etc, are exaggerated or outright fake news.

That  is not the point of the article at all.  It explicitly was limited was limited to saying that the reported sinking of a Russian vessel, which was reported as "probably" sunk, apparently was only damaged. There's nothing whatsoever in there about all the other reports of large amounts of Russian troop and equipment losses being over-reported.

It's very difficult to sink warships with land-based artillery because it's hard to get a direct hit with an armor-piercing shell, usually at long distance, and more importantly, ships can usually sail around them or bombard them from a distance with bigger guns, missiles, or airstrikes, which is why you don't see coastal defense artillery anymore. The fact that they even got a hit on the Vasily Bykov is pretty impressive.

 Oh, absolutely agreed my friend. The point of my post was the entire article focused on the fact that the warship was hit but probably not sunk as originallythought was likelythe case, but didn't mention anything about all the other well documented heavy Russian troop and equipment losses being being mere Ukrainian Propaganda As compucomp claimed.

[Badger]

The Case Of Russia's Apparently Back From The Dead Black Sea Warship

Tl;dr the rocket barrage against the Vasily Bykov mentioned a few days ago most likely didn't work. Ukraine was right to request anti-ship missiles.

The real takeaway from this article is that many Ukrainian reports of casualties, battlefield victories, etc, are exaggerated or outright fake news.

That  is not the point of the article at all.  It explicitly was limited was limited to saying that the reported sinking of a Russian vessel, which was reported as "probably" sunk, apparently was only damaged. There's nothing whatsoever in there about all the other reports of large amounts of Russian troop and equipment losses being over-reported.

Around a week ago this thread breathlessly celebrated as they accepted without question the Ukrainian report of supposed ambush that destroyed the Vasily Bykov. Turns out that report was fake news. Given the obvious interest the Ukrainian government and media has in putting out favorable reports regardless of veracity, and now multiple documented cases where these reports have proven to be fake, how can any thinking person trust the reports coming out of Ukrainian sources? If you tell me one lie, then everything else you say is questionable too, that's how society has always worked. Clearly people in this thread are more interested in cheerleading for Ukraine than getting at the truth, which is their right, but they are bound to be disappointed if/when the two stray far from each other.

You claimed the article broadly attacked stories of heavy Russian troop and equipment losses as likely Ukrainian propaganda. It did not.  It solely discussed an early report of the VB being sunk as opposed to damaged as having been over optimistic. You made up out of whole cloth the supposed indictment of all the other many many reports of Russian losses as being "exaggerated or outright fake news." This was simply false.

As someone recently said:

  If you tell me one lie, then everything else you say is questionable too, that's how society has always worked.

[Badger]

https://twitter.com/MuellerSheWrote/status/1504553418890756107

A veritable who's who of $hitbags.

[Badger]

Some of the posts above imply that Russia needs to accomplish what it wants to accomplish pretty soon (soon being undefined), before it runs out of gas as it were, as opposed to just keep grinding along indefinitely slowly wearing Ukraine down until it has nothing left. Which point of view is more accurate, or is that just an unknown? If Russia does have a limited time window to attain its objectives, does anyone have any idea how long that might be?

it's the first one causing the second one, the Russians do not want to do the grind thing, nobody on offense wants to do the grind thing (even if you don't care about the numbers of your own men you kill, you would still rather not do it that way outside of extremely specific situations that probably couldn't even exist in the real world in 2022) .  The thing is though, if the front line units are just getting an erratic trickle of fuel/gear/men, even slowly grinding is impossible to sustain.  The actual men doing the fighting are going to lose what little moral they have left in such a situation.  Russia's position is likely getting worse by the day.

Take the VDV and Spetsnaz (specops) units.  Those are filled with loyal, well trained, well equipped and experienced men.  They have taken extremely heavy casualties, but are also (likely) the cause of most of Russia's gains.  These men are exhausted as they've (likely) been overly relied upon by the higher ups.  Their moral must be in the toilet if they had one to put it in.  It's unsustainable.  The fact that Belarus has done nothing, the fact that Russia is calling in men from Syria and C.A.R. puts further proof to that point.

Or I'm wrong and Putin is about to pull a quarter of a million well equipped, well trained and experienced men out of his butt and place them on the border as if he was turning in a set of Risk cards late in the game.

Speaking of VDV losses:

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1504706312667643931?s=20&t=uTxMgQCM...

The 331st is part of the 98th Guards Airborne Division, which is fighting near/in Irpin, northwest of Kyiv.
This unit is one of those that had soldiers caught after "accidentally" entering Ukraine in 2014.

 May he rot in h*** for his many bloody sins.

[Badger]

Western observers (and the Ukrainian government) have been trying very hard to make this into a clash of systems and ideologies. It’s not; it really is ‘two tribes go to war’.

Perhaps, but one tribe is going to engage in less suppression of the other tribe than the other.

Plus the fact that, notwithstanding its flaws, the Ukraine is still fundamentally a liberal democracy whereas Russia clearly and manifestly is not.

[Badger]

Ummm...

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1505264048002240515?s=20&t=rV8M-l...

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1505258123434639360?s=20&t=rV8M-l...

 Holy s***, has this been confirmed?!?

This is literal ethnic cleansing!

[Badger]

Can ya'll seriously stop feeding the troll? Most of the last 3 pages have been taken up by a inane debate caused by one or two bootlickers

Not everyone who disagrees with you in automatically a troll.

But compucomp is

You can call me what you want. But the fact is, I am expressing the views broadly held by 1.4 billion people, 1.3 billion or so have a government whose actions up to now are indistinguishable from China's, and as described by Red Velvet earlier in this thread, hundreds of millions live in countries that either sympathize with the alternate viewpoint or refuse to go along with Western sanctions, including American allies Saudi Arabia and Israel. I thought this was a political forum to discuss all viewpoints, and normally it is, but for some reason on this issue it is a complete echo chamber.

Again what exactly does sending aid to Russia give you? If you truly do want better US China relations but are also willing to balance other factors how will China sending aid to Russia benefit either America or China or their relations ?

Your position is merely one of wanting to own the libs.

It's quite embarrassing for Russia but they might need our support to keep the war going to a conclusion they can claim is a "win". If I really want to "take off the mask" and go full realpolitik, then I would say that having Russia as the West's chief antagonist is very good for China as then it means China is not, and Russia can be a huge supplier of energy and food for China to compensate for us possibly having our sea lanes cut off by the Americans. But Putin being removed and Russia in ruins or as a pro-Western client state would be a huge loss for China; we lose our ally, we become public enemy #1 to the West again, and Western relations with China will only get worse from that point; in short if Russia falls we're next.

 Rather disingenuous have you to claim your views are hailed by 1.4 billion people when they are or forbidden from expressing their thoughts, voting to elect a representative government, and force fed state propaganda media with Strange censorship of alternative points of view. But Hey, if Patting yourself in the back  About it Get you through the night, whom I to say to stop doing it?

Also, FTR even if it is broadly held among even a majority of Chinese, that doesn't make it any less a s****** view. I mean, to take an extreme version Early 40% of Germans voted for Hitler.

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26% of 10% is not really a significant demographic though.

 Thank god

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https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1506256136504184834?s=20&t=AMO2rwqUf1U2J...

Needs to be confirmed by a more unbiased source, but that fantasied pocket everyone was talking about yesterday may have actually somehow occurred.

How the hell do you spend 22 years and trillions of dollars 'modernising' your military only for this to happen?

I would not want to be a Russian senior officer right now.

Answer: Corruption, both local and higher up. No doubt the bosses are cooking the books, but then you also have examples of common soldiers taking sh**t and reselling in. There was an image back at the start of march of a several-years long multi-sale ebay listing for Russian MREs from a St. Petersburg server.

 Here is another reason. This thread was sent to me by my closest friend and I posted it earlier in this thread, but I'm sure many overlooked it as it update as this has grown to / 300 pages. It is extremely insightful indeed and absolutely worth reading through the 2020 or 30 tweets to get a picture of how The Russian government relies on the state's security service to stay in power, and explicitly nuters/dumbs down it's military leadership to avoid to avoid being taken out.

https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1502673952572854278?s=20&t=VKopazV0byqI-cLBHQoYCQ

Highlights, the notorious thieves in law criminal gang regularly extorts military army bases for cash with the tacit approval of the government, and military conscripts are frequently forced into gay prostitution to earn money for higher Ups. The list goes on

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"It’s difficult to know exact details of Russia’s stockpile, given its lack of transparency. Larry Korb, with the Center for American Progress, says that any tactical weapon “is still pretty powerful.” One that was detonated over New York City, for example, would destroy the city, while a full strategic nuclear weapon would destroy the entire state."

Two points of note.

Even during the height of the Cold War, any nuclear strike and counter strike would more than likely have devastated select targets in Europe either side of the Iron Curtain before immediate de-escalation in response. Any European alive then would have probably agreed. The USSR and the USA weren't stupid and neither were we. The same is true today.

Secondly what I was trying to hint at is that even if Russia went completely loco and lobbed a nuke at New York for the hell of it, using missiles and guidance systems that make it and don't get intercepted, I am more...confident now than a month ago that the west could effectively atomise a dozen Russian targets before the Russian missile passes the Azores. Slight exaggeration of course.

This is in no way a situation I would ever wish to happen, but we are basing Russian ability and effectiveness and weaponry on what was, as the article hints 'unknowns', prior to the Ukraine conflict. There is less fog now.

Are Russia a nuclear power as we assumed, or do they have what is effectively a series of 'dirty bombs' with the same capabilities and limitations as other countries that try to build them? That still makes them a threat, but in growling at us, they've shown a lot of missing teeth.

 But the problem and distinction here is of course the Ukraine does not have even baby nukes to respond to such an assault. And Putin is just as blood thirsty and ruthless and desperate to take such an action potentially.

[Badger]

Seems like Lukashenko has more sense then Putin.

https://twitter.com/MrKovalenko/status/1506466784815288327

 Whoever expected that Lukashenko would play the role, albeit even tentatively and borderline, as an FF in this conflict?

[Badger]

BTW, in a slightly off track note, Netflix has recently Provided access to Zelensky's old sitcom, Servant of the People.

[Badger]

Seems like Lukashenko has more sense then Putin.

https://twitter.com/MrKovalenko/status/1506466784815288327

 Whoever expected that Lukashenko would play the role, albeit even tentatively and borderline, as an FF in this conflict?

He isn't stupid.

He knows that if he sent his troops into Ukraine, there would be another coup and he probably won't be able to survive this one.

 Oh I get it. He is still fundamentally a dictatorial POS and abuser of human rights. And i totally agree hes acting in self interest.

But at the same time as that Twitter feed notes he is risking Putin trying to take him out with a coup as well. I understand that he is that he is just balancing the odds as to which to which decision will more likely oust him from power, and if it turns 51% in favor of being ousted by not invading then he'll send the troops in. It's just odd that even through naked self interest and real politic he is making decisions that benefit the Ukraine and liberal democracy..