Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Torie]

CNN says the NATO "deconfliction" line with Russia is not working.

[sguberman]

S-300 are apparently on the way
https://twitter.com/LisaDNews/status/1504104741705502727

[Sir Mohamed]

Apologies if someone already posted but some interesting results from the Russian poll published in WaPo last week:

"DO YOU SUPPORT OR DO NOT SUPPORT THE MILITARY OPERATION OF RUSSIA ON THE TERRITORY OF UKRAINE?"
(age w/net support/oppose:)
18-24:29/39
25-30:37/30
31-35:45/24
36-40:52/29
41-55:63/22
56-65:71/14
66+:75/16

(locality)
city >1+M:48/31
city 500k-1M:56/31
city 100k-500k:56/24
city 50k-100k:63/23
city <50k/rural:65/16

(career stage)
studying:36/31
working:56/24
neither studying nor working:49/28
retired:69/17

(if working, for a federal, municipal, or private enterprise)
federal:61/19
municipal/local:77/12
private employee:49/29
private owner: 64/20

(financial situation in past year)
worsened:47/32
stayed the same:62/20
improved:67/15

> Russian polls

I guess FL Quinnipiac polls are more accurate.

[dead0man]

Apologies if someone already posted but some interesting results from the Russian poll published in WaPo last week:

"DO YOU SUPPORT OR DO NOT SUPPORT THE MILITARY OPERATION OF RUSSIA ON THE TERRITORY OF UKRAINE?"
(age w/net support/oppose:)
18-24:29/39
25-30:37/30
31-35:45/24
36-40:52/29
41-55:63/22
56-65:71/14
66+:75/16

(locality)
city >1+M:48/31
city 500k-1M:56/31
city 100k-500k:56/24
city 50k-100k:63/23
city <50k/rural:65/16

(career stage)
studying:36/31
working:56/24
neither studying nor working:49/28
retired:69/17

(if working, for a federal, municipal, or private enterprise)
federal:61/19
municipal/local:77/12
private employee:49/29
private owner: 64/20

(financial situation in past year)
worsened:47/32
stayed the same:62/20
improved:67/15

> Russian polls

I guess FL Quinnipiac polls are more accurate.

tea leaves, tarot cards and chicken bones are more accurate

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Lots of missiles. I agree with Biden on no jets and no no fly zone I think, but the SAM's should have been delivered a week ago at least. Biden had a bad case of the slows there IMO. Perhaps there was a good reason for the delay. If so, I would like to know what it is.

this times a thousand.  There should have been modern missile defense systems in Ukraine a long (months/years) time ago.  The west has failed Ukraine for decades, same with Georgia and the Kurds.

The principal arguments against long-range SAMs in Ukraine pre-war were:
- If Ukraine was as outmatched as it seemed prior to the invasion, they wouldn’t change things but would get captured (muh sensitive technology)
- Cost. Ukraine was broke and the US thought its limited military aid was better spent elsewhere. Ukraine could keep restoring its older systems at a much cheaper cost
- Time cost (something like a Patriot system would take years to learn)
- A significant upgrade in those kinds of capabilities could create tensions between Russia and Ukraine

This is all understandable, but there should have at least been a strategy to quickly deliver Russian SAMs and aircraft (among other Russian weaponry) to Ukraine if and when an invasion happened.

Let’s assume the imminent deliveries is to be taken at face value - I’m a bit skeptical, because the official claimed they were sending two kinds of S-300 system but also said what they were sending “wasn’t the S-300” (they have probably misidentified something at the very least). With that assumption, we know Ukraine is still not being sent all the SAMs it can use that the West has operational. We don’t know how many systems are being sent (i.e. whether countries are emptying their inventories), but we do know that types like Buks and Kubs have been completely overlooked.

Yesterday, there was a report that Biden was mulling the delivery of Switchblade drones. They might have a fast learning curve, but - at least officially - Ukraine isn’t trained to use these yet. It might also be a non-starter because of concerns about sensitive technology. would make more sense to send more Turkish drones that Ukraine already uses, but I suspect one of the reasons that Switchblade story got boosted was because US lobbyists were concerned that Turkish drones would eat their market share thanks to a strong performance in Ukraine.

Whether it’s real or just hype for the US drone industry, it didn’t seem carefully planned. Congresscritters proposing the delivery of A-10 planes (which Ukraine has zero maintenance experience with) and “non-kinetic no fly zones” from Star Trek just add to the impression of disorganisation.

[compucomp]

Financial Times reports that Ukraine and Russia have made significant progress on a tentative 15-point peace plan including a ceasefire and Russian withdrawal if Kyiv declares neutrality and accepts limits on its armed forces, according to three people involved in the talks.

I read over that article (link below), honestly I think it's not a bad result for Russia given the gains they have made up to now, if in addition they get that Ukraine renounces their claim to the Donbass and Crimea then they probably should accept the deal and declare victory.

Edit: If Ukraine is seriously considering any iteration of this deal then it means they know they are still in trouble and their nation has suffered from the war, and it's not all peaches and roses as their propaganda, cheerfully relayed on this thread, would have us believe.

https://www.ft.com/content/7b341e46-d375-4817-be67-802b7fa77ef1

[It’s so Joever]

Financial Times reports that Ukraine and Russia have made significant progress on a tentative 15-point peace plan including a ceasefire and Russian withdrawal if Kyiv declares neutrality and accepts limits on its armed forces, according to three people involved in the talks.

Armed forces limits?!
That is a terrible idea. Why should Ukraine accept that?

[Badger]

CNN says the NATO "deconfliction" line with Russia is not working.

Sorry, what? Can you please expand on that Torie?

[Torie]

CNN says the NATO "deconfliction" line with Russia is not working.

Sorry, what? Can you please expand on that Torie?

That is the text that I saw on the CNN screen. I have no further knowledge. It seems to be a different phone from the infamous red one.

Addendum: More about the phone line: https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-putin-news-03-04-22/h_b9af65dfcc767f7d5c70fb6e1ee440c6

[Badger]

Financial Times reports that Ukraine and Russia have made significant progress on a tentative 15-point peace plan including a ceasefire and Russian withdrawal if Kyiv declares neutrality and accepts limits on its armed forces, according to three people involved in the talks.

Armed forces limits?!
That is a terrible idea. Why should Ukraine accept that?

 I generally agree,  But the devil is in the details. If it's a high threshold and there are more than adequate International security guarantees, it might serve Ukraine's needs in order to facilitate peace.

[jaichind]

Financial Times reports that Ukraine and Russia have made significant progress on a tentative 15-point peace plan including a ceasefire and Russian withdrawal if Kyiv declares neutrality and accepts limits on its armed forces, according to three people involved in the talks.

Armed forces limits?!
That is a terrible idea. Why should Ukraine accept that?

I agree on this point.  Ukraine should not give an inch on its ability to defend itself in the future.  

On the flip side, I think Ukraine's demand for Western security guarantees is a mistake.  It put Ukraine in a position vis-a-vis the West that it wishes to avoid with Russia.  If Ukraine wants the West to promise a military intervention in case of a future invasion from Russia, a nuclear power, then the West would then want to control Ukraine's domestic and foreign policy to make sure that Ukraine does nothing to provoke that conflict which could put the safety of the West at risk. It is unwise for Ukraine to cede that much power and control to anyone, Russia or the West.

I still think the deal should be
a) Constitutional neutrality for Ukraine with a de facto understanding that Ukraine joining any alliance or having foreign troops on its solid without Russian permission would mean another Russian invasion
b) Russian as a second official language in Ukraine
c) Ukraine accept Crimea as part of Russia
d) The two Donetsk republics rejoin Ukraine as autonomous regions

[Torie]

Financial Times reports that Ukraine and Russia have made significant progress on a tentative 15-point peace plan including a ceasefire and Russian withdrawal if Kyiv declares neutrality and accepts limits on its armed forces, according to three people involved in the talks.

Armed forces limits?!
That is a terrible idea. Why should Ukraine accept that?

 I generally agree,  But the devil is in the details. If it's a high threshold and there are more than adequate International security guarantees, it might serve Ukraine's needs in order to facilitate peace.

What are the odds that Putin would accept the US giving security guarantees to Ukraine? If Putin accepted that and withdrew, the war is over. I don't see it happening. And the US is not going to give such guarantees without Ukraine having adequate armament for its defense, because that means the US does most of the fighting. That ain't happening.

[Sir Mohamed]

CNN says the NATO "deconfliction" line with Russia is not working.

Sorry, what? Can you please expand on that Torie?

That is the text that I saw on the CNN screen. I have no further knowledge. It seems to be a different phone from the infamous red one.

Addendum: More about the phone line: https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-putin-news-03-04-22/h_b9af65dfcc767f7d5c70fb6e1ee440c6

US Department of Defense recently established a direct line of communication with its Russian counterpart to avoid possible missunderstandings in conjunction with military actions/exercises of both sides. That was done to ensure to avoid a potential unintentional escalation.

I read about this a week ago or so, and that the line is primarily used by Americans.

[Illiniwek]

Financial Times reports that Ukraine and Russia have made significant progress on a tentative 15-point peace plan including a ceasefire and Russian withdrawal if Kyiv declares neutrality and accepts limits on its armed forces, according to three people involved in the talks.

Armed forces limits?!
That is a terrible idea. Why should Ukraine accept that?

Yeah this seems to just set up a re-invasion in a few years when they invent another phony reason to invade.

I still think the deal should be
a) Constitutional neutrality for Ukraine with a de facto understanding that Ukraine joining any alliance or having foreign troops on its solid without Russian permission would mean another Russian invasion
b) Russian as a second official language in Ukraine
c) Ukraine accept Crimea as part of Russia
d) The two Donetsk republics rejoin Ukraine as autonomous regions

This would appear to be an acceptable deal.

[Torie]

Financial Times reports that Ukraine and Russia have made significant progress on a tentative 15-point peace plan including a ceasefire and Russian withdrawal if Kyiv declares neutrality and accepts limits on its armed forces, according to three people involved in the talks.

Armed forces limits?!
That is a terrible idea. Why should Ukraine accept that?

I agree on this point.  Ukraine should not give an inch on its ability to defend itself in the future.  

On the flip side, I think Ukraine's demand for Western security guarantees is a mistake.  It put Ukraine in a position vis-a-vis the West that it wishes to avoid with Russia.  If Ukraine wants the West to promise a military intervention in case of a future invasion from Russia, a nuclear power, then the West would then want to control Ukraine's domestic and foreign policy to make sure that Ukraine does nothing to provoke that conflict which could put the safety of the West at risk. It is unwise for Ukraine to cede that much power and control to anyone, Russia or the West.

I still think the deal should be
a) Constitutional neutrality for Ukraine with a de facto understanding that Ukraine joining any alliance or having foreign troops on its solid without Russian permission would mean another Russian invasion
b) Russian as a second official language in Ukraine
c) Ukraine accept Crimea as part of Russia
d) The two Donetsk republics rejoin Ukraine as autonomous regions

As to the bolded bit, one could say that about any NATO member. I think that argument is make weight. And there is no excuse by Russia to invade Ukraine, none, unless it invades Russia first.

[jaichind]

Financial Times reports that Ukraine and Russia have made significant progress on a tentative 15-point peace plan including a ceasefire and Russian withdrawal if Kyiv declares neutrality and accepts limits on its armed forces, according to three people involved in the talks.

Armed forces limits?!
That is a terrible idea. Why should Ukraine accept that?

I agree on this point.  Ukraine should not give an inch on its ability to defend itself in the future.  

On the flip side, I think Ukraine's demand for Western security guarantees is a mistake.  It put Ukraine in a position vis-a-vis the West that it wishes to avoid with Russia.  If Ukraine wants the West to promise a military intervention in case of a future invasion from Russia, a nuclear power, then the West would then want to control Ukraine's domestic and foreign policy to make sure that Ukraine does nothing to provoke that conflict which could put the safety of the West at risk. It is unwise for Ukraine to cede that much power and control to anyone, Russia or the West.

I still think the deal should be
a) Constitutional neutrality for Ukraine with a de facto understanding that Ukraine joining any alliance or having foreign troops on its solid without Russian permission would mean another Russian invasion
b) Russian as a second official language in Ukraine
c) Ukraine accept Crimea as part of Russia
d) The two Donetsk republics rejoin Ukraine as autonomous regions

As to the bolded bit, one could say that about any NATO member. I think that argument is make weight. And there is no excuse by Russia to invade Ukraine, none, unless it invades Russia first.

But all current NATO members are not part of Russia's core interest states with the possible exception of the Baltic Republics which is why I also think Baltic Republics being in NATO is a bad idea and highly disablizing.

[Logical]

If true then the Winter War comparisons were very apt.

[Torie]

Financial Times reports that Ukraine and Russia have made significant progress on a tentative 15-point peace plan including a ceasefire and Russian withdrawal if Kyiv declares neutrality and accepts limits on its armed forces, according to three people involved in the talks.

Armed forces limits?!
That is a terrible idea. Why should Ukraine accept that?

I agree on this point.  Ukraine should not give an inch on its ability to defend itself in the future.  

On the flip side, I think Ukraine's demand for Western security guarantees is a mistake.  It put Ukraine in a position vis-a-vis the West that it wishes to avoid with Russia.  If Ukraine wants the West to promise a military intervention in case of a future invasion from Russia, a nuclear power, then the West would then want to control Ukraine's domestic and foreign policy to make sure that Ukraine does nothing to provoke that conflict which could put the safety of the West at risk. It is unwise for Ukraine to cede that much power and control to anyone, Russia or the West.

I still think the deal should be
a) Constitutional neutrality for Ukraine with a de facto understanding that Ukraine joining any alliance or having foreign troops on its solid without Russian permission would mean another Russian invasion
b) Russian as a second official language in Ukraine
c) Ukraine accept Crimea as part of Russia
d) The two Donetsk republics rejoin Ukraine as autonomous regions

As to the bolded bit, one could say that about any NATO member. I think that argument is make weight. And there is no excuse by Russia to invade Ukraine, none, unless it invades Russia first.

But all current NATO members are not part of Russia's core interest states with the possible exception of the Baltic Republics which is why I also think Baltic Republics being in NATO is a bad idea and highly disablizing.

OK. I disagree. The Baltics in NATO are not destabalizing. Putin does not lay awake at night worrying about an attack from Estonia. What is destablizing has only one loci - the corpus of Putin.

[AndyHogan14]

Financial Times reports that Ukraine and Russia have made significant progress on a tentative 15-point peace plan including a ceasefire and Russian withdrawal if Kyiv declares neutrality and accepts limits on its armed forces, according to three people involved in the talks.

Armed forces limits?!
That is a terrible idea. Why should Ukraine accept that?

I agree on this point.  Ukraine should not give an inch on its ability to defend itself in the future.  

On the flip side, I think Ukraine's demand for Western security guarantees is a mistake.  It put Ukraine in a position vis-a-vis the West that it wishes to avoid with Russia.  If Ukraine wants the West to promise a military intervention in case of a future invasion from Russia, a nuclear power, then the West would then want to control Ukraine's domestic and foreign policy to make sure that Ukraine does nothing to provoke that conflict which could put the safety of the West at risk. It is unwise for Ukraine to cede that much power and control to anyone, Russia or the West.

I still think the deal should be
a) Constitutional neutrality for Ukraine with a de facto understanding that Ukraine joining any alliance or having foreign troops on its solid without Russian permission would mean another Russian invasion
b) Russian as a second official language in Ukraine
c) Ukraine accept Crimea as part of Russia**
d) The two Donetsk republics rejoin Ukraine as autonomous regions

**Only after a free and fair referendum on the subject.

Russian as a primary language of the country is likely a non-starter politically (hell, I am seeing anecdotal stories about Russian speakers are switching to Ukrainian as a form of protest). If the Donbas is to be given autonomy, it should only be within the previous line of control. I don't think the areas of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts that remained under Ukrainian control should be subject to the crazies that have been in control of the "DPR" and "LPR" over the past eight years.

[Torie]

One thing I don't get about Putin's strategy in the past few days is the firing of missiles with apartment buildings being the deliberate target with the whole world watching. That makes it next to impossible for the West to appear to be rewarding Putin for doing that, and that is not going to intimidate the Ukrainians per se, and it will not kill enough Ukrainians so that their mindset becomes irrelevant.

Is Putin nuts, or are the missiles meant to hit something else, and Russia's guidance systems need work?

[Torie]

Financial Times reports that Ukraine and Russia have made significant progress on a tentative 15-point peace plan including a ceasefire and Russian withdrawal if Kyiv declares neutrality and accepts limits on its armed forces, according to three people involved in the talks.

Armed forces limits?!
That is a terrible idea. Why should Ukraine accept that?

I agree on this point.  Ukraine should not give an inch on its ability to defend itself in the future.  

On the flip side, I think Ukraine's demand for Western security guarantees is a mistake.  It put Ukraine in a position vis-a-vis the West that it wishes to avoid with Russia.  If Ukraine wants the West to promise a military intervention in case of a future invasion from Russia, a nuclear power, then the West would then want to control Ukraine's domestic and foreign policy to make sure that Ukraine does nothing to provoke that conflict which could put the safety of the West at risk. It is unwise for Ukraine to cede that much power and control to anyone, Russia or the West.

I still think the deal should be
a) Constitutional neutrality for Ukraine with a de facto understanding that Ukraine joining any alliance or having foreign troops on its solid without Russian permission would mean another Russian invasion
b) Russian as a second official language in Ukraine
c) Ukraine accept Crimea as part of Russia**
d) The two Donetsk republics rejoin Ukraine as autonomous regions

**Only after a free and fair referendum on the subject.

Russian as a primary language of the country is likely a non-starter politically (hell, I am seeing anecdotal stories about Russian speakers are switching to Ukrainian as a form of protest). If the Donbas is to be given autonomy, it should only be within the previous line of control. I don't think the areas of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts that remained under Ukrainian control should be subject to the crazies that have been in control of the "DPR" and "LPR" over the past eight years.

What would be really tough is that the residents on the real estate Putin is rewarded with from invasion don't want to live under Putin. That would make for bad press if there are huge demonstrations by said residents against the notion that they have become unwilling pawns for "peace."

[Sir Mohamed]

One thing I don't get about Putin's strategy in the past few days is the firing of missiles with apartment buildings being the deliberate target with the whole world watching. That makes it next to impossible for the West to appear to be rewarding Putin for doing that, and that is not going to intimidate the Ukrainians per se, and it will not kill enough Ukrainians so that their mindset becomes irrelevant.

Is Putin nuts, or are the missiles meant to hit something else, and Russia's guidance systems need work?

I think he wants to "break" civilians here and show them who has the military might. He's just doing the same appalling stuff as he did in Grozny 1999 and Aleppo post-2015.

The West has sanctioned him to the stone age anyway, so he doesn't really care about that. He also feels certain enough NATO won't intervene directly because nobody in DC or Brussels wants to risk WWIII.

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/DanLinden/status/1504121874149744644

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/DanLinden/status/1504121874149744644

Putler's reaction:

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The two dissenters are Russian and Chinese. Shocking!