Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[It’s so Joever]

The cello is my favorite instrument in the orchestra. My Dad played it.




https://www.yahoo.com/now/kharkiv-cellist-performs-against-backdrop-053159122.html

Wouldn’t be the first cellist in a major Eastern European war in the past 50 years

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vedran_Smailović

[jaichind]

IFX reports that Russia will demand that countries it has labeled “unfriendly” must pay in RUB for Russian gas. 

It seems Italy is "not inclined" to pay RUB for Russian gas.  If Russia and Italy do not back down this will lead to Italy w/o Russin gas.  I guess the good news is Spring is coming soon so Italy's demand for Russian gas will be lower.

[AndyHogan14]

IFX reports that Russia will demand that countries it has labeled “unfriendly” must pay in RUB for Russian gas.  

It seems Italy is "not inclined" to pay RUB for Russian gas.  If Russia and Italy do not back down this will lead to Italy w/o Russin gas.  I guess the good news is Spring is coming soon so Italy's demand for Russian gas will be lower.

It seems like this might be the push some EU countries need to stop buying Russian gas. This could very well end up being an "own goal" for Russia if countries like Germany and Italy refuse.

[compucomp]

IFX reports that Russia will demand that countries it has labeled “unfriendly” must pay in RUB for Russian gas.  

It seems Italy is "not inclined" to pay RUB for Russian gas.  If Russia and Italy do not back down this will lead to Italy w/o Russin gas.  I guess the good news is Spring is coming soon so Italy's demand for Russian gas will be lower.

It seems like this might be the push some EU countries need to stop buying Russian gas. This could very well end up being an "own goal" for Russia if countries like Germany and Italy refuse.

It's only an own goal if Italy and Germany can stop buying Russian gas and suffer only mild effects. That would be like the Confederacy enacting a cotton embargo at the start of the Civil War to pressure the European powers into recognition only to find that they could not move the market like they thought and that they had missed the opportunity to sell as much cotton as possible before the Union blockade became effective. However, if Italy and Germany suffer acute fuel shortages and substantial surges in energy costs, then they could be forced back onto Russian gas and then it would be a win for Russia at least in the short term.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1506650200420585477?s=20&t=Hq9mKiJ...

[jaichind]

IFX reports that Russia will demand that countries it has labeled “unfriendly” must pay in RUB for Russian gas.  

It seems Italy is "not inclined" to pay RUB for Russian gas.  If Russia and Italy do not back down this will lead to Italy w/o Russin gas.  I guess the good news is Spring is coming soon so Italy's demand for Russian gas will be lower.

It seems like this might be the push some EU countries need to stop buying Russian gas. This could very well end up being an "own goal" for Russia if countries like Germany and Italy refuse.

This is a calculated risk Russia is taking. They know their leverage will be a lot weaker in the spring of 2023 so they are gambling that Italy and especially Germany will back down since no Russian gas for Germany would mean a very big it for German industry.  Russia is playing its card before the card becomes a lot less valuable.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

IFX reports that Russia will demand that countries it has labeled “unfriendly” must pay in RUB for Russian gas.  

It seems Italy is "not inclined" to pay RUB for Russian gas.  If Russia and Italy do not back down this will lead to Italy w/o Russin gas.  I guess the good news is Spring is coming soon so Italy's demand for Russian gas will be lower.

It seems like this might be the push some EU countries need to stop buying Russian gas. This could very well end up being an "own goal" for Russia if countries like Germany and Italy refuse.

This is a calculated risk Russia is taking. They know their leverage will be a lot weaker in the spring of 2023 so they are gambling that Italy and especially Germany will back down since no Russian gas for Germany would mean a very big it for German industry.  Russia is playing its card before the card becomes a lot less valuable.

Only if Germany/Italy etc. actually phase out Russian gas by then, which is uncertain - especially if Russia wraps up the active phase of the war in Ukraine by then.

Playing this card now makes it more likely that they stop using Russian gas. If that happens, Russia is denied even the hope of retaining its most valuable source of revenue in Europe.

[sguberman]

Interesting article from the New York Times
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/23/climate/europe-russia-gas-reagan.html

[Badger]

Seems like Lukashenko has more sense then Putin.

https://twitter.com/MrKovalenko/status/1506466784815288327

 Whoever expected that Lukashenko would play the role, albeit even tentatively and borderline, as an FF in this conflict?

[Badger]

BTW, in a slightly off track note, Netflix has recently Provided access to Zelensky's old sitcom, Servant of the People.

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1506657183840313349

[Oryxslayer]

Seems like Lukashenko has more sense then Putin.

https://twitter.com/MrKovalenko/status/1506466784815288327

 Whoever expected that Lukashenko would play the role, albeit even tentatively and borderline, as an FF in this conflict?

Dictatorial regime's look out for themselves first, above all else. He's calculated that after what happened last year, and what is happening to the supply lines through his country, perhaps getting involved for no gain would be to the regime's determent. I'm sure if the situation were reversed and little green men were advancing west of Kyiv then the scales would be balanced differently, but we as observers have no idea how those scales look.

[pppolitics]

Seems like Lukashenko has more sense then Putin.

https://twitter.com/MrKovalenko/status/1506466784815288327

 Whoever expected that Lukashenko would play the role, albeit even tentatively and borderline, as an FF in this conflict?

He isn't stupid.

He knows that if he sent his troops into Ukraine, there would be another coup and he probably won't be able to survive this one.

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/FridhKleberg/status/1506661639323541504
https://twitter.com/WSJ/status/1506664676536598530

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/WSJ/status/1506664676536598530

[ugabug]

https://twitter.com/WSJ/status/1506664676536598530

Was just about to post that. If true though this has to be one of the largest military disasters Russia has experienced at least since ww2.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/WSJ/status/1506664676536598530

Was just about to post that. If true though this has to be one of the largest military disasters Russia has experienced at least since ww2.

How many do you think they will need to lose before they give up? 200000 is now 160000.

[DINGO Joe]

Seems like Lukashenko has more sense then Putin.

https://twitter.com/MrKovalenko/status/1506466784815288327

 Whoever expected that Lukashenko would play the role, albeit even tentatively and borderline, as an FF in this conflict?

Well, we're talking about the Belarus "army" here and Lukashenko cares about himself first and foremost so he ain't FF out of the goodness of his own heart.

[ugabug]

https://twitter.com/WSJ/status/1506664676536598530

Was just about to post that. If true though this has to be one of the largest military disasters Russia has experienced at least since ww2.

How many do you think they will need to lose before they give up? 200000 is now 160000.

With luck maybe we've already reached that point and it's only a matter of time until Putin is deposed and his replacement takes Russia out of Ukraine or I'm just being overly optimistic.

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/sciam/status/1506684818154831873

Ukraine has disconnected its electrical grid from Russia/Belarus grid and is now connected to the European grid.

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/bpolitics/status/1506658242264547328

[ugabug]

https://twitter.com/NatashaBertrand/status/1506693038080417800

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Seems like Lukashenko has more sense then Putin.

https://twitter.com/MrKovalenko/status/1506466784815288327

 Whoever expected that Lukashenko would play the role, albeit even tentatively and borderline, as an FF in this conflict?

Luka is in a very fragile position at home and the Russian army clearly won’t be able to bail him out this time like they did 2020. He can’t afford send his military away.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

https://twitter.com/DonaldJTrumpJr/status/1506702774674808842
1. Ukraines treatment of LGBT+ individuals isn't the best, for sure. It's still a quite Conservative country overall, but one that has a growing LGBT rights movement and is quickly liberalizing on a pace that is similar to other Western countries, especially among young people. Queer people are not persecuted in Ukraine as they are on the level of Russia for instance.

2. Trump Jr's attempt to use LGBT people as a reason to push 'Ukrainian Nazi' BS conspiracy theories is the worst part, even though I'm sure he thinks he's being clever. He isn't. The Trump family really aren't hiding their allegiances in this conflict, are they?

I'd rather celebrate the LGBT people in Ukraine on the front lines of the war against Russian imperialism. The truth is, Ukraine is a society in the early stages of developing a vibrant democracy and open society, Russia is an autocratic mafia state where minorities are ruthlessly suppressed, which side should LGBT people be on?

https://twitter.com/Openly/status/1505845307661336580?s=20&t=BJ2ZmRi01rs-C8t...
https://twitter.com/PinkNews/status/1500965012730490895?s=20&t=BJ2ZmRi01rs-C...
Would you ever see that in Russia? I think not.

[Storr]

This war has been a goldmine for western defense and intelligence research.

https://twitter.com/MikeDix24458223/status/1506681546060664837?s=20&t=peohf8...

https://twitter.com/space_osint/status/1506688082657091584?s=20&t=sn22b6gweW...