Election 2018 Open Thread v2 - Mia, Mimi, Gil, and T.J.

[Badger]

Katie Hobbs’ lead at 5918. Not sure what county updated but it doesn’t look like Pima or Maricopa

Apache

Also Cox added 180 votes in the Tulare County provisionals:

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1063103638732591104

Yup. This doesn't make much a difference on its own as Tulare County is just a tiny portion of the district, but, as I predicted, provisionals are going to be really ugly for Valadao. Cox could hit 80% in the Kern County provisionals, e.g., and, especially given that Tulare result, should be ahead in the Kings County provisionals, too. Mostly comes down to whether Valadao can build up a bit of a buffer in the remaining Kings County VBMs; right now, if only provisionals were counted, I think Cox wins.

But have Kern's counties vbms been counted either?

Also, can I just save that I realize this is totally greedy of me, but with the utter decimation of the California Republican Congressional Delegation, is it wrong that it's still bugs me Devin Nunes is one of those survivors (for now)?

[Badger]

As thrilled as I am that Golden won, the fact he only won by 1% against one of the weakest R incumbents makes me think this has “one-term rental” written all over it. Hence he should just go for Senate and hope to strike...gold

Nah. He beat an incumbent whom, IMHO, wasn't all that flawed. This is a district Obama won handily in 2008, and by a reasonable margin in 2012. Yes the district trended heavily for Trump, and was the reason LePage got reelected, let's call this a rental is way early and over-exaggerated.

I suspect boring a scandal or wave election, golden has a long career in this District, though I admittedly wouldn't bet the farm on it.

[Badger]

As thrilled as I am that Golden won, the fact he only won by 1% against one of the weakest R incumbents makes me think this has “one-term rental” written all over it. Hence he should just go for Senate and hope to strike...gold

Nah. He beat an incumbent whom, IMHO, wasn't all that flawed. This is a district Obama won handily in 2008, and by a reasonable margin in 2012. Yes the district trended heavily for Trump, and was the reason LePage got reelected, let's call this a rental is way early and over-exaggerated.

I suspect boring a scandal or wave election, golden has a long career in this District, though I admittedly wouldn't bet the farm on it.

Poliquin’s favorables were disastrous

Are trumps any better in the district? Serious question because I'm not sure. If not, one can readily argue that similar to most of the Midwest, outside of Ohio, damn it, these working-class areas are reverting to their natural Democratic lean after flirting with trumpism. If so, golden will probably be fine until the next Republican wave election.

[Badger]

Orange dropped. Cisneros lead at over 3K votes-

We should be getting a call from AP tonight since they called the 45th for Porter when she had a 3K vote lead.

Huh, this is it. Nixon's hometown, and presidential library are about to be represented by a Democrat.

I'm salivating at that thought.

[Badger]

Orange dropped. Cisneros lead at over 3K votes-

We should be getting a call from AP tonight since they called the 45th for Porter when she had a 3K vote lead.

Huh, this is it. Nixon's hometown, and presidential library are about to be represented by a Democrat.

Reagan’s library will also be represented by a Democrat

[Badger]

Yeah, I never understood why people thought Valadao and Hurd were unbeatable juggernauts. I didn’t even move these races out of the Toss-up category when it appeared that Democrats had given up on CA-21/TX-23.

Valadao made sense given his past margins and his 28 point win in the jungle primary. Hurd... not sure what they were smoking there with the absurd Hurd +15 polls in samples where Trump was popular

This. FWIW, I think Hurd and, if he pulls it out, Valadao are top targets next time with presidential level Hispanic turnout.

[Badger]

Was not expecting that Utah drop.

Democrats could actually get to 40 seats.

I'd love to pull out a 42nd seat to drop the GOP under 200.

[Badger]

https://mobile.twitter.com/AP_Politics/status/1065033426506522624

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6YMPAH67f4o

100%.
To think that I wrote this seat off once Romney announced.
It’s crazy to think that Love managed to lose a heavily-gerrymanderred R-leaning seat as many times as she won it.
Almost as weird as the fact that both times coincided with Mitt ‘King of Utah’ Romney’s presence on the ballot. Maybe there’s a quiet anti-Mitt vote in Salt Lake?

If she were a Dem, you guys would be screaming about how racist Utah is for not voting for her. I, for one, am not celebrating that the only black Republican in the House has lost, someone who was mocked by Trump for opposing his bigotry. Yeah, I know we don't need more Republicans and all, and if a future piece of legislation or big vote comes down to one Congressman named McAdams, it might be a good thing, but somehow I doubt it.

There's another black Republican in the House, although he almost lost reelection this year.

And likely will in 2020.

<Sigh> I kinda like Hurd. I wish he were in a safe R seat instead of almost any other TX congresscritter in such districts.

Maybe he could move to Galveston and primary Gohmert?

It would have been nice had Mia Love represented literally any other district in Utah, since there's no chance of us winning those and less diversity isn't exactly good, but alas.

This too.

[Badger]

btw anyone know why TJ Cox raised 2 million this cycle?
Thats a pretty damn good raise for some bankrupt gringo who carpet bagged after seeing he couldn't win in the 10th

TJ Cox is now an unbeatable titan because he took down another titan.

He unironically is though. This seat is gone for the GOP once it flips, and unless it somehow becomes a D vs. D race, I don't see how Cox loses, lol. And D vs. D seems unlikely since Republicans still have a sizable base in the district.

I hope he doesn't get screwed by top 2 primary. He deserves the seat after being the only one to try against a supposable unbeatable titan when a bunch of strong hispanic candidates like Salas and Huerta ran away from the UNBEATABLE TITAN VALADAO.

This X10. Assuming he doesn't turn out to be a twit, of course.

[Badger]

The 2018 election was truly an Attack on Titan. So many titans slayed.

Yeah, definitely not a good night for Unbeatable Titans.

Unbeatable Titan Dean Heller
Unbeatable Titan Adam Laxalt
Unbeatable Titan Carlos Curbelo
Unbeatable Titan David Valadao
Unbeatable Titan Dino Rossi
Unbeatable Titan Young Kim

All slain. The only remaining Unbeatable Titans are Unbeatable Titan Will Hurd and Unbeatable Titan Jon Tester, both of whom only narrowly survived.

In fairness, outside only a couple notorious hacks, only valadao and young Kim were seriously considered Titans especially the former.

[Badger]

I guess if he ends up losing his titan status will have been invaladaoated.

Ah, I see what you did there.

[Badger]

It would be nice to hear something more tangible than "irregularities". It'd have to be something pretty big to overcome a 2000-vote lead.

905 actually. At least according to the Charlotte Observer article links by Virginia.

[Badger]

It would be nice to hear something more tangible than "irregularities". It'd have to be something pretty big to overcome a 2000-vote lead.

905 actually. At least according to the Charlotte Observer article links by Virginia.

...oh, of course the NYT is out of date. What a joke.

At any rate, somehow getting that election result reverse would be awesome considering that, amongst Louvre Trump supporting one of these, Mark Harris is almost without question the worst new Republican elected to congress this year. He will quickly rise, or rather to send, to the ranks of folks like Steve King, Louie gohmert, Etc.

[Badger]

Democrats are the part of all Americans:

https://twitter.com/williamjordann/status/1068298612466167808

Isolated anomalies don't make a trend.

Kindly remember that theory the next time you want to Swoon over Tim Scott or John James.

[Badger]

This election really is something. You could've argued that Dems did better because of low turnout or that Trump's base didn't show up -- but nope, this was presidential level turnout, with Dems turning out 60 million votes, and even WITH Trump's base being awakened, they nearly took the house by 10 million votes. That's incredible.

Which leads me to think that this election is some indication of 2020. You couldn't argue that 2010 meant the defeat of Obama since the turnout was pretty low, but this election signaled mass enthusiasm in the opposition with the Democrats beating the GOP by nearly 10 mill in such a turnout.

Essentially, the Dem candidate in 2020 needs to live in PA, WI, and MI. Based on 2018, we have a good starting point.

M e h. This may be foolish this after 2016, but I just don't see pulling out Pennsylvania or Michigan again. It was like Obama carrying Indiana in 2008. The difference is whereas Indiana Shipley reverted to Norm in 2012, Trump has actively burned Bridges with pretty much any voter who ever supported Obama in either one of those States.

Wisconsin is still competitive I'll say, but only kind of in the same way Texas is for Democrats.

[Badger]

This election really is something. You could've argued that Dems did better because of low turnout or that Trump's base didn't show up -- but nope, this was presidential level turnout, with Dems turning out 60 million votes, and even WITH Trump's base being awakened, they nearly took the house by 10 million votes. That's incredible.

Which leads me to think that this election is some indication of 2020. You couldn't argue that 2010 meant the defeat of Obama since the turnout was pretty low, but this election signaled mass enthusiasm in the opposition with the Democrats beating the GOP by nearly 10 mill in such a turnout.

Essentially, the Dem candidate in 2020 needs to live in PA, WI, and MI. Based on 2018, we have a good starting point.

M e h. This may be foolish this after 2016, but I just don't see pulling out Pennsylvania or Michigan again. It was like Obama carrying Indiana in 2008. The difference is whereas Indiana Shipley reverted to Norm in 2012, Trump has actively burned Bridges with pretty much any voter who ever supported Obama in either one of those States.

Wisconsin is still competitive I'll say, but only kind of in the same way Texas is for Democrats.

I cant tell if you are implying the Rust Belt is gone for Ds, or that the Rs winning it was a "once in a blue moon" thing.

The ladder. That first sentence should have read that I can't see Trump pulling out Ohio or Michigan again.