Election 2018 Open Thread v2 - Mia, Mimi, Gil, and T.J.

[_]

Mia Love has pulled into the lead in UT-04 by about 400 votes.

I assume that was the remaining Utah County ballots. Do we know what's still out?

3 Precincts in Utah County, 18 in SLC.

Also as a note, Indy Redistricting is up 50.1-49.9 now.

[Tintrlvr]

With the exception of the open seat in CA-39, all these losing California House Republicans voted for ACA repeal.  Screaming ME ME can go home and have recurring nightmares about Elizabeth Warren, lol.

Looks like Young Kim lose long time.

Don't make racist jokes here.

He’s not that good-looking, either. He’s average. He also has serious gayface, not especially surprising for a young Republican.

A few points:

1. I did not know that you were Asian American, as someone else pointed out. I don't think this totally removes the racism inherent in that comment but I totally understand that it gets toned down.

2. My comment is not homophobic at all - "gayface" is a (largely joking but also semi-serious) gay male reference that honestly straight people don't know about at all, and it certainly doesn't have homophobic origins (unlike the "me love you long time" trope's obvious racist history). I can understand if you're straight not getting this (maybe you're gay and just don't like the topic). (By the way, I am gay, although I don't think this would necessarily absolve me of any borderline homophobic jokes.)

3. It's a bit ridiculous to go combing through someone's post history looking for potentially off-color remarks to retort with instead of just explaining.

Thanks.

[Tintrlvr]

Mia Love has pulled into the lead in UT-04 by about 400 votes.

I assume that was the remaining Utah County ballots. Do we know what's still out?

3 Precincts in Utah County, 18 in SLC.

Also as a note, Indy Redistricting is up 50.1-49.9 now.

I wouldn't call it for Love just yet in that case. Good news on the redistricting referendum.

[BundouYMB]

Katie Hobbs has increased her lead for AZ SoS to over 15,000 votes. This is over. Only 60~k ballots left and every batch is increasing her lead. Huge win!

[nclib]

Can someone list the House races that were called after election day? I was ill for a while and am catching up on Atlas.

[pppolitics]

Katie Hobbs has increased her lead for AZ SoS to over 15,000 votes. This is over. Only 60~k ballots left and every batch is increasing her lead. Huge win!

Also, there are only uncounted ballots left in Maricopa and Pima.

[Florida Man for Crime]

I know two people from Forsyth County, and they were absolute delights. I've never understood how the county has such a backwards history.

Yep, my opinion of Forsyth County has gone up knowing that Georgia Moderate lives there. That means there must be something not all bad there.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Nate Silver moved CA-21 to Tossup.

[Sestak]

Love leads by only 400 with 18 SL precincts out to only 3 in Utah? Will probably be close then, right?

[Politician]

Nate Silver moved CA-21 to Tossup.

To think that RRH moved this to Safe R on Election Day...

[Florida Man for Crime]

Love leads by only 400 with 18 SL precincts out to only 3 in Utah? Will probably be close then, right?

It depends on which SL precincts (and do we really know that it is precincts? I would think if it were provisionals and maybe a few late mail ballots they would gather them together from all over, not keep them separated by precinct this late).

NOVA Green did say earlier that a good chunk of the precincts left were from South Jordan, which is one of the more GOP parts of the district in Salt Lake County. If so then what is left probably will go to Love, unfortunately.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I know two people from Forsyth County, and they were absolute delights. I've never understood how the county has such a backwards history.

Yep, my opinion of Forsyth County has gone up knowing that Georgia Moderate lives there. That means there must be something not all bad there.

Aww, thanks.   I certainly won't defend Forsyth's past, but after over a decade here I'll say that it's been the most pleasant of the Metro Atlanta counties I've lived in (5 total).

[Torrain]

California vote dump has begun:

[Skill and Chance]

Mia Love has pulled into the lead in UT-04 by about 400 votes.

I assume that was the remaining Utah County ballots. Do we know what's still out?

3 Precincts in Utah County, 18 in SLC.

Also as a note, Indy Redistricting is up 50.1-49.9 now.

I wouldn't call it for Love just yet in that case. Good news on the redistricting referendum.

So it should pass now unless counting error or rural counties disproportionately out?

[Bidenworth2020]

Mia Love has pulled into the lead in UT-04 by about 400 votes.

I assume that was the remaining Utah County ballots. Do we know what's still out?

3 Precincts in Utah County, 18 in SLC.

Also as a note, Indy Redistricting is up 50.1-49.9 now.

I wouldn't call it for Love just yet in that case. Good news on the redistricting referendum.

So it should pass now unless counting error or rural counties disproportionately out?

dont get the excitement about it. You can easily draw a safe r seat entirely within SLC.

[ON Progressive]

Mia Love has pulled into the lead in UT-04 by about 400 votes.

I assume that was the remaining Utah County ballots. Do we know what's still out?

3 Precincts in Utah County, 18 in SLC.

Also as a note, Indy Redistricting is up 50.1-49.9 now.

I wouldn't call it for Love just yet in that case. Good news on the redistricting referendum.

So it should pass now unless counting error or rural counties disproportionately out?

dont get the excitement about it. You can easily draw a safe r seat entirely within SLC.

Nope. You can't draw a Safe R seat entirely within Salt Lake City or Salt Lake County.

Salt Lake City is really Democratic, and the GOP areas within the county are just too small to create a whole CD out of.

[2016]

Mia Love has pulled into the lead in UT-04 by about 400 votes.

I assume that was the remaining Utah County ballots. Do we know what's still out?

3 Precincts in Utah County, 18 in SLC.

Also as a note, Indy Redistricting is up 50.1-49.9 now.

I wouldn't call it for Love just yet in that case. Good news on the redistricting referendum.

Well, if the Provisionals in Utah County break the same way like it's breaking at this moment Love is going to pull this out

https://twitter.com/RobertGehrke/status/1063592097129750528

[Oryxslayer]

Katie Hobbs has increased her lead for AZ SoS to over 15,000 votes. This is over. Only 60~k ballots left and every batch is increasing her lead. Huge win!

Also, there are only uncounted ballots left in Maricopa and Pima.

Ducey congratulationed her on her victory today btw.

[lfromnj]

Nate Silver moved CA-21 to Tossup.

To think that RRH moved this to Safe R on Election Day...

TBF i never felt their ratings were Super hackish they may have been stupid for some but I never got the hack feeling for their ratings.

[Oryxslayer]

Mia Love has pulled into the lead in UT-04 by about 400 votes.

I assume that was the remaining Utah County ballots. Do we know what's still out?

3 Precincts in Utah County, 18 in SLC.

Also as a note, Indy Redistricting is up 50.1-49.9 now.

I wouldn't call it for Love just yet in that case. Good news on the redistricting referendum.

So it should pass now unless counting error or rural counties disproportionately out?

dont get the excitement about it. You can easily draw a safe r seat entirely within SLC.

Nope. You can't draw a Safe R seat entirely within Salt Lake City or Salt Lake County.

Salt Lake City is really Democratic, and the GOP areas within the county are just too small to create a whole CD out of.

The best you can draw pub wise is something like R+5 only in the county, 2020 numbers. If that was UT-04s pvi right now, congressman McAdams would be a thing easily.

[Bidenworth2020]

Mia Love has pulled into the lead in UT-04 by about 400 votes.

I assume that was the remaining Utah County ballots. Do we know what's still out?

3 Precincts in Utah County, 18 in SLC.

Also as a note, Indy Redistricting is up 50.1-49.9 now.

I wouldn't call it for Love just yet in that case. Good news on the redistricting referendum.

So it should pass now unless counting error or rural counties disproportionately out?

dont get the excitement about it. You can easily draw a safe r seat entirely within SLC.

Nope. You can't draw a Safe R seat entirely within Salt Lake City or Salt Lake County.

Salt Lake City is really Democratic, and the GOP areas within the county are just too small to create a whole CD out of.

incorrect



R+12

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

CA-25 is turning into a real ass-kicking for Knight. This seat will probably stay in Dem hands for a long time.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Orange dropped. Cisneros lead at over 3K votes-

We should be getting a call from AP tonight since they called the 45th for Porter when she had a 3K vote lead.

[lfromnj]

Mia Love has pulled into the lead in UT-04 by about 400 votes.

I assume that was the remaining Utah County ballots. Do we know what's still out?

3 Precincts in Utah County, 18 in SLC.

Also as a note, Indy Redistricting is up 50.1-49.9 now.

I wouldn't call it for Love just yet in that case. Good news on the redistricting referendum.

So it should pass now unless counting error or rural counties disproportionately out?

dont get the excitement about it. You can easily draw a safe r seat entirely within SLC.

Nope. You can't draw a Safe R seat entirely within Salt Lake City or Salt Lake County.

Salt Lake City is really Democratic, and the GOP areas within the county are just too small to create a whole CD out of.

incorrect



R+12

do you have the mcain obama numbers for that district?
Thats probably the best numbers to use to estimate SLC as the D+8 year probably gets cancelled out by the trend but Romney and Trump are too weird occurences to use currently.

[Florida Man for Crime]

CA-25 is turning into a real ass-kicking for Knight. This seat will probably stay in Dem hands for a long time.