Election 2018 Open Thread v2 - Mia, Mimi, Gil, and T.J.

[wbrocks67]

Honestly, it is kinda ridiculous that we’re over 3 weeks from Election Day and votes are still being counted.

I really don't see what the big deal is. Making voting as easy as possible is more important than counting quick.

This. It's sad that so many people in so many different areas want to make voting *HARDER* for people.

[Virginiá]

Or seriously let's just vote over the internet. 

Speaking as someone with a lot of background in tech and was once in favor of that idea, I can say for sure it's a terrible idea. Elections are too important to subject to such a risky system. We can barely protect corporations/govt systems as it is. And if we did do it at some point, it would be too complicated to allow states to manage. It'd have to be managed to by the federal govt.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Well at least Huerta did the right thing and ducked out. Because yes, I know this is a hot take, but I think if he got Huerta in for a rematch, I think Valadao would have survived. I legit think that TJ Cox is a better candidate than Huerta. Rudy Salas would have beaten Valadao by near ten points. But, this seat is safe D for the future now with the current lines. And Cox deserves to keep it. He was the underdog that even the consensus of overly optimistic for dems Atlas did not favor to win, and he went in there fearlessly, disregarding all the haters and doubters, when he could have gone the easy way in CA 10, and he won. That is the story of an underdog and champion. He put his head down and worked for this seat. Barring some major revelation about him (there won't be, he is a good man), he deserves to hold that seat, and dems should not try to primary him out. What he did showed his true courage and perseverance, and democrats need to reward that. I'm sorry for doubting you TJ, I'm a believer now.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Also:

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1068190105347792898


(#1 was Cook/Wasserman)

Although it looks like Wasserman was indeed the most accurate, it's worth noting that 538 was the most unbiased, since all of Wasserman's errors underestimated Democrats while 538's went in either direction.

[Tintrlvr]

Also, provisional ballots need to be individually examined to determine if they're valid, and CA always gets a lot of provisionals.

For the very small number of provisional ballots, it's fine if they take a while to count.  For the handful of races that are within 0.1% where the provisionals will actually matter, everything should be carefully counted and recounted and I have no problem expecting the outcome to taking a few weeks to decide.

But in California, you have cases where the race couldn't be called even when one candidate ended up winning by 7-10% because literally millions of mailed ballots that had already been received were just sitting there for a week or two.  If it costs a few million dollars to invest in a technology that will read these immediately, that seems well worth it.  

Or seriously let's just vote over the internet.  

It would cost way less to just hire more people to count the ballots. The "technology" aspect is a red herring - vote-counting machines are much more expensive than people, especially when you include the transition costs. (There's a reason so many voting machine companies are owned by people connected various boards of elections--it's all a grifting scam.) Other countries manage to find the staffing to count ballots quickly; we should be able to do the same.

[Gass3268]

Or seriously let's just vote over the internet. 

Speaking as someone with a lot of background in tech and was once in favor of that idea, I can say for sure it's a terrible idea. Elections are too important to subject to such a risky system. We can barely protect corporations/govt systems as it is. And if we did do it at some point, it would be too complicated to allow states to manage. It'd have to be managed to by the federal govt.

Universal vote by mail with automatic voter registration. The reason California takes so long counting their votes has nothing to do with vote by mail or allowing ballots postmarked on election day, it takes forever due to massive ballots due to a crazy amount of referendums and initiatives. It might make more sense to split the ballot in two for counting purposes. Count and announce the elected officials first then move on to the other items.

[Tintrlvr]

No one mentioned it, but Fresno County updated yesterday as well. Cox extends his lead slightly. There must be almost nothing left at this point.

[Antonio the Sixth]

There's no reason this hasn't been called yet. The only county with a significant number of outstanding ballots is Kern.

[DrScholl]

AP says that it will not call the race until after certification.

[Antonio the Sixth]

AP says that it will not call the race until after certification.

Cowards.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

No one mentioned it, but Fresno County updated yesterday as well. Cox extends his lead slightly. There must be almost nothing left at this point.

Looks like Tulare has updated at this point, going from 3499 ballots to 3671 ballots (172 ballots released). It has gone from Valadao lead 1899-1600 (+299) to 1954-1717 (+237). Overall district now has Cox ahead 56,751-56,160 (+591 for Cox). 50.26-49.74 Cox leads.

[Landslide Lyndon]

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Thanks, this is cleaner

[wbrocks67]

A couple updates.

CA-21
TJ Cox (D) 50.3%%
David Valadao (R) 49.7%

CA-39
Gil Cisneros (D) 51.5%
Young Kim (R) 48.5%

CD-45
Katie Porter (D) 52.0%
Mimi Walters (R) 48.0%

CA-48
Harley Rouda (D) 53.5%
Dana Rohrabacher (R) 46.5%

CA-49
Mike Levin (D) 56.1%
Diane Harkey (R) 43.9%

[Brittain33]

A couple updates.

CA-39
Gil Cisneros (D) 51.5%
Young Kim (R) 48.5%

WHY IS LIBRUL MEDIA NOT REPORTING FIRST KOREAN AMERICAN CONGRESSMAN EVUH... BECAUSE SHE REPUBLICAN?!

[wbrocks67]

The NYT polls were pretty spot on on a lot of races but they bungled most of the CA races, most of all Katie Hill's district. They had Steve Knight up by 4, and the final margin there is likely to be like Katie Hill +9.

[wbrocks67]

Has anyone seen any data or exit polls yet that break down specifically how certain gender/age demos voted? Like White Women 18-29, White Males 18-29, etc?

[Oryxslayer]

The NYT polls were pretty spot on on a lot of races but they bungled most of the CA races, most of all Katie Hill's district. They had Steve Knight up by 4, and the final margin there is likely to be like Katie Hill +9.

CA-25's dem base has a large chunk of Hispanic voters. I would not be surprised if the same phenomenon that produced relatively-larger GOP leads in places like TX-21, CA-21, NV-Sen, and to a lesser extent AZ-Sen was at play here as well.

[lfromnj]

Did everyone forget uc berkely polls which got basically all the races within 5 points besides the 48th. It even shows Nunes only up 8 and people laughed yet he was up5 in the end.hunter was up 2

[Gustaf]

Also:

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1068190105347792898


(#1 was Cook/Wasserman)

Although it looks like Wasserman was indeed the most accurate, it's worth noting that 538 was the most unbiased, since all of Wasserman's errors underestimated Democrats while 538's went in either direction.

Even 538 was 10-2. The 2 seats they had Democrats winning that Went GOP were KS-2 and MN-1.

The 10 seats that Went the other way were CA-21, NM-2, TX-32, OK-5, GA-6, SC-1, IL-6, VA-2, VA-7, NY-11.

[wbrocks67]

The NYT polls were pretty spot on on a lot of races but they bungled most of the CA races, most of all Katie Hill's district. They had Steve Knight up by 4, and the final margin there is likely to be like Katie Hill +9.

CA-25's dem base has a large chunk of Hispanic voters. I would not be surprised if the same phenomenon that produced relatively-larger GOP leads in places like TX-21, CA-21, NV-Sen, and to a lesser extent AZ-Sen was at play here as well.

Huh? Relatively larger leads in... NV-Sen and AZ-Sen where both Dems overperformed?

[lfromnj]

The NYT polls were pretty spot on on a lot of races but they bungled most of the CA races, most of all Katie Hill's district. They had Steve Knight up by 4, and the final margin there is likely to be like Katie Hill +9.

CA-25's dem base has a large chunk of Hispanic voters. I would not be surprised if the same phenomenon that produced relatively-larger GOP leads in places like TX-21, CA-21, NV-Sen, and to a lesser extent AZ-Sen was at play here as well.

Huh? Relatively larger leads in... NV-Sen and AZ-Sen where both Dems overperformed?

we are talking about the polling leads.  For example texas 23rd polls were +15 +8 +12 and an internal +25 Hurd. Yet the final result was the usual Rick scott margin for Hurd of +0.7.

[Gass3268]

Democrats are the part of all Americans:

https://twitter.com/williamjordann/status/1068298612466167808

[Young Conservative]

Democrats are the part of all Americans:

https://twitter.com/williamjordann/status/1068298612466167808

Isolated anomalies don't make a trend.

[Holmes]

Democrats are the part of all Americans:

https://twitter.com/williamjordann/status/1068298612466167808

Isolated anomalies don't make a trend.

I don't think Dems winning any of the districts in that tweet is an isolated anomaly.