Hungarian elections and politics

[Antonio the Sixth]

What time do polls close? 20:00 I assume?

Also, turnout at 13 appears to be slightly down from 2018. 40.01% instead of 42.32%. What do we make of that?

[Antonio the Sixth]

19:00

Ah, thanks. That's early by European standards.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Will there be an exit poll at 19?

[Antonio the Sixth]

This is the official results page, right? https://vtr.valasztas.hu/ogy2022/orszagos-listak?tab=parties

Doesn't seem like any results are in yet.

[Antonio the Sixth]

No exit polls, only a pollsters prediction on 121 mandates for Fidesz. Fidesz people are talking about a 5% lead to media, which might be realistic. It takes an hour to have the first results. This time they will be published in time as all stations are closed now.

121 mandates with a 5-point lead seems weird to me. Fidesz won 133 seats with a 30-point lead last time. I know the situation is very different given that the opposition was fragmented and we can't expect linear effects, and the gerrymander might save Fidesz' ass, but I'd still expect them to lose a few more seats than that.

[Antonio the Sixth]

First results seem to skew heavily for Fidesz. I assume that has to do with where they're coming from?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yep Fidesz killing it in the FPTP seats, have seen projection of 89-17 for them there and 133 overall, just above the 2/3rds.

So this isn't close at all so far, they also won 133 in both 2014 and 2018.

If they end up at exactly 133 for the third time in a row, I refuse to believe these elections are legitimate. They must be rigging it and not even be subtle about it.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Lots of people failing basic reading comprehension on here. What else is new.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Time for the EU & NATO to throw Hungary out. Orban wants to go it alone he should do it without western money.

Add Poland lol.

Actually the opposition is in pretty solid shape in Poland and the Western liberal segment of the country is roughly 50% of voters.  And Poland tends to play fair when the EU makes certain demands. Orban's Hungary, on the other hand, is a farce and an embarrassment to the entire EU.

Yeah, however low my opinion of the PiS clique might be, they're in a whole other league compared to Orban. They might be reactionary nationalists, but they're European reactionary nationalists, not Putin fifth-columnists.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Time for the EU & NATO to throw Hungary out. Orban wants to go it alone he should do it without western money.

Add Poland lol.

Actually the opposition is in pretty solid shape in Poland and the Western liberal segment of the country is roughly 50% of voters.  And Poland tends to play fair when the EU makes certain demands. Orban's Hungary, on the other hand, is a farce and an embarrassment to the entire EU.

Yeah, however low my opinion of the PiS clique might be, they're in a whole other league compared to Orban. They might be reactionary nationalists, but they're European reactionary nationalists, not Putin fifth-columnists.

You do realize that Hungary voted to condemn Russia in the UN AND also implemented ALL of the EU sanctions against Russia, right?

Now, the fact that they do not want to literally ruin their own economy by banning Russian gas, and want to stay militarily out of the conflict (no weapons for Ukraine), is them putting their national interests first, not being a 5th column.

Passivity is complicity. Anyone who stands in the way of providing the aid Ukraine needs to fight is a Putin fifth-columnist. It's that f**king simple.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Geez, I'm not ignoring nearly as many people as I should be. Time to update my list.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Hungary supports Orban's position on LGBT issues by 92-96% LOL

This means even a huge majority of the liberal parties voted NO on all of the questions.

Do you support the holding of sexual orientation sessions for minor children in public education without parental consent?

Do you support the promotion of gender reassignment treatments for minors?

Do you support the unrestricted introduction of sexual media content to minors that affects their development?

Do you support the display of gender-sensitive media content to minors?

https://magyarnemzet.hu/valasztas-2022-nepszavazas

No, you cretin, it means opposition voters abstained to try to deny the quorum, exactly as their parties had instructed.

Whether that succeeded or not remains to be seen.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Hungary supports Orban's position on LGBT issues by 92-96% LOL

This means even a huge majority of the liberal parties voted NO on all of the questions.

Do you support the holding of sexual orientation sessions for minor children in public education without parental consent?

Do you support the promotion of gender reassignment treatments for minors?

Do you support the unrestricted introduction of sexual media content to minors that affects their development?

Do you support the display of gender-sensitive media content to minors?

https://magyarnemzet.hu/valasztas-2022-nepszavazas

No, you cretin, it means opposition voters abstained to try to deny the quorum, exactly as their parties had indicated.

Whether that succeeded or not remains to be seen.

If we count the invalid ballots as a YES, it means around 70% support Orban's current position.

And if we count Fidesz votes as votes for the opposition, they won in a landslide!

Electoral analysis is fun like that.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Orban's coalition led in the polling against the United Opposition by about 7 points toward the end. It appears that coalition is going to win by about 18 points. Polls around the world are consistently underestimating the strength of right-wing, specifically right-wing nationalist candidates and parties. This is a trend, not an anomaly.

And predictably, the left is not taking it well. "Democratic backsliding" and all that gets invoked whenever a person they don't like wins. Many of the typical excuses - one-sided media coverage, changes to voting rules, etc. - can be seen to some extent in many "western liberal democracies" including the US. And if that doesn't sufficiently explain the result, just trash the character of the voters. Because after all, democracy is when the good guys win and the bad guys lose. Under this warped mindset, someone can "vote against democracy". Doesn't sound like a secure system that can preserve a free society if that's the case.

What an utterly idiotic post. Please stick to commenting on US elections, where at least you have a vague understanding of what's going on (if only through personal experience, clearly not through analytical capacities) rather than just spouting off prepackaged talking points about a continent that's alien to you.