The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

[pbrower2a]

If this keeps up, maybe it will turn out that 2010 was about Pelosi and not Obama after all?

So it was. If the special interests who bought the most servile and illiberal House of Representatives ever had gone after president Obama, then they  would have had to wait two years for the effect to take place. The House of Representatives and the Senate were more available. So were state legislatures.

Those special interests wanted a Congress that would fulfill its dreams of an absolute plutocracy: one in which about every liberal challenge to the power of capitalists, big landowners, and executives was no more. These folks want child labor (why waste the athleticism of youth in school when you can have them working for pittances in mines, farms, and factories?) but they want all labor cheap (Abolish the minimum wage!) They want the most crooked ways of doing business  -- Mafia methods in the use of "respectable" people -- as the norm because such maximizes profits.   

We are beginning to see two of the scummiest years in American politics even without Dubya. We are also going to get the most powerful lesson in civics that we could ever get. We already have a governor who has suggested that it would be acceptable to confuse Martin Luther King Day with St. Patrick's Day (regrettably, MLK did not completely drive the snakes out of American political life, as demonstrated in 2010),  and one who told the NAACP that it could kiss his derriere. We had two Congressmen attend a fundraiser/party instead of getting sworn in.  We are going to see what terribly-flawed people do when they get power. We are going to see how government works when unelected lobbyists responsible only to the giant corporations that retain them achieve legislative power.

[pbrower2a]

If you want to see an analogue for an incumbent winning 55% or so of the vote, then look to FDR winning his third term.

FDR won 54.74% of the popular vote and 84.6% of the electoral vote. Willkie won 44.78% of the popular vote and 15.4% of the electoral vote, which would result in roughly a 455 - 83 split of the electoral vote with 538 electoral votes to split.

 

  

[pbrower2a]

Obama, 49-47, North Carolina, PPP.  It looks as if 2012 is going to be a disaster for the GOP in the Presidential race, and it has nothing to do with the Mayan calendar.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NC_0125925.pdf

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...Sarah Palin's star is fading fast:

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Maryland --  No big surprise there. Obama would win this state in a landslide.

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PPP gave a poll involving new WV Senator Joe Manchin, whose approval rating is 52%. That poll asked nothing about President Obama. Republicans will have BIG problems downticket in states other than West Virginia if they can't hold West Virginia in the Presidential election. PPP so far says that President Obama's chances of winning West Virginia are "very dim", but it has no poll on the President there.





 

Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)
<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?

Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!

District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama,  3               
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 79
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   86
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 33
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 71
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 56
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   9



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I am adding a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3                 
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 79
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   90
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 29
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 23
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  49
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 38
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  9  

[pbrower2a]

Oh well, whatever the polls are regardless of PPP or Rasmussen, gotta put it on the 2012 map, that includes Washington.

It's irony how you guys favor PPP (a Dem leaning polster) over the others.

Rasmussen hasn't given any statewide polls lately, so we can hardly exclude those. I quit using them when those were available only on a subscription basis. That's the only reason for rejecting then -- because I am a cheapskate and I am not in the business. 

PPP has lately offered more statewide polls than anyone else. Of course I have included Quinnipiac.

As a rule, I reject pollsters who lack independence or consistently offer suspect results. Someone polling for a political party, a union, a trade association, fringe media or groups, or a 527 group like  American Crossroads is unlikely to get an unbiased result. As I have shown, I would reject a poll that shows 65% approval for the President in Oklahoma or 35% approval for the President in Vermont when nationwide polls suggest 50% is suspect. Would you trust a poll from the NAACP or NARAL? 

SurveyUSA has shown such off-the-wall results that I see no cause to believe them.

Rasmussen has shown nationwide approval and disapproval very consistently. 

[pbrower2a]

As a rule, I reject pollsters who lack independence or consistently offer suspect results. Someone polling for a political party, a union, a trade association, fringe media or groups, or a 527 group like  American Crossroads is unlikely to get an unbiased result. As I have shown, I would reject a poll that shows 65% approval for the President in Oklahoma or 35% approval for the President in Vermont when nationwide polls suggest 50% is suspect. Would you trust a poll from the NAACP or NARAL?

What about someone who does polling for a left wing blog (PPP for Daily Kos) or someone who has done polling for Fox News (Rasmussen)?  At one point, you were explicitly excluding Fox polls:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=91754.6270

"Has done" is excused unless one has evidence of plagiarism or fabrication (which was exposed with an entity known as Strategic Vision that was operating out of a strip mall far from any city and whose ownership could say little about itself. "Is doing" might not be so reliable.

In 2008, FoX actually had a reliable pollster (Opinion Dynamics) which usually got things right. Rasmussen did the polls that FoX sought to push the agenda.

Rasmussen was OK when independent. The difference between Rasmussen and other pollsters is is that Rasmussen uses a "likely voters" screen that tends to favor Republicans. It tends to underestimate youth vote in a Presidential election.

Daily Kos had one pollster that was giving mid-50s ratings for the President when everyone else was giving approvals in the forties. Daily Kos quit using that pollster after finding some questionable methodology.

[pbrower2a]

West Virginia will not be reverting to its pre-2000 norm of voting for a Democratic nominee for President  unless things change drastically. Barack Obama remains at the least the wrong sort of Democrat to win West Virginia.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_WV_0127.pdf

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The likely reason behind President Obama not winning over the hearts and minds of West Virginians:

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Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)
<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?

Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!

District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama,  3               
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 79
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   86
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 33
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 71
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 56
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   14



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I am adding a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3                 
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 79
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   90
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 29
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 23
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  49
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 38
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  14  

[pbrower2a]

Oregon (SurveyUSA): 51-45

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollTrack.aspx?g=87dabdb7-5435-402e-891e-11b3bf475127

New York (Quinnipiac): 53-40

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1318.xml?ReleaseID=1553

Both make sense. SurveyUSA may still be a bit low for Oregon, so it might still be 'provisional'.

Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)
<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?

Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!

District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama,  3               
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 108
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   64
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 26
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 71
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 56
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   14



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I am adding a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3                 
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 108
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   64
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 26
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 23
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  49
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 38
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  14  

[pbrower2a]

Nebraska, PPP.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NE_0131.pdf

This is complicated because the state splits its electoral votes. Statewide, Obama loses the state as a whole, but he wins the Second Congressional District against everyone else (here I take PPP at its word even if there is no specific poll shown for NE-02). One of the oddities of the 2008 election is preserved as a prospect for 2012.


Sarah Palin comes close to losing this very conservative state -- probably losing two Congressional Districts but winning the state at large, unless she slips even further. (She would win three electoral votes in Nebraska and Obama would win two, to make it clear).

Remember:

NE-01 (eastern Nebraska except for Greater Omaha. including Lincoln) voted like Texas and probably would do so again.

NE-02 (Greater Omaha within Nebraska) voted like Indiana in 2008 and I will reserve judgment on what state I compare it to -- until I see a poll for Indiana.

NE-03 (central and western Nebraska, including Scottsbluff and Grand Island) is one of the most conservative districts in America  and votes much like Wyoming.

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All major Republicans candidates project to do worse than did John McCain.  I am guessing that President Obama loses NE-01 by a high-single digit margin to the strongest Republican candidate (which I go with; Sarah Palin may completely disappear as a relevant candidate if she continues to fade in opinion polls).

Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)
<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?

Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!

District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama,  3                
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 108
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   64
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 27
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 71
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 56
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 4
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   17



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I am adding a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3                  
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 108
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   64
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 27
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 23
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  49
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 38
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 4
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  17  

[pbrower2a]

Nebraska, PPP.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NE_0131.pdf

This is complicated because the state splits its electoral votes. Statewide, Obama loses the state as a whole, but he wins the Second Congressional District against everyone else (here I take PPP at its word even if there is no specific poll shown for NE-02). One of the oddities of the 2008 election is preserved as a prospect for 2012.


Sarah Palin comes close to losing this very conservative state -- probably losing two Congressional Districts but winning the state at large, unless she slips even further. (She would win three electoral votes in Nebraska and Obama would win two, to make it clear).

Remember:

NE-01 (eastern Nebraska except for Greater Omaha. including Lincoln) voted like Texas and probably would do so again.

NE-02 (Greater Omaha within Nebraska) voted like Indiana in 2008 and I will reserve judgment on what state I compare it to -- until I see a poll for Indiana.

NE-03 (central and western Nebraska, including Scottsbluff and Grand Island) is one of the most conservative districts in America  and votes much like Wyoming.

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All major Republican candidates project to do worse than did John McCain. I am guessing that President Obama loses NE-01 by a high-single digit margin to the strongest Republican candidate (which I go with; Sarah Palin may completely disappear as a relevant candidate if she continues to fade in opinion polls).

Thank you, Tender Branson, for finding what I was looking for.

Side note for pbrower2a's map:

Obama's approvals are actually broken down by Congressional District in the PPP release:

CD1: 35-57
CD2: 51-45
CD3: 28-67

(page 15)

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NE_0131.pdf

Guesswork reworked for more reliable results.  

Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)
<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?

Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!

District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama,  3                
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 109
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   64
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 26
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 71
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 56
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   18



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I am adding a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3                  
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 109
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   64
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 26
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 23
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  49
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 38
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  18  

[pbrower2a]

Rasmussen Reports (February 1, 2011):


Presidential Approval: 50% approve (29% strongly)
                                    49% disapprove (40% strongly).

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

[pbrower2a]

South Dakota, PPP.

If Senator John Thune were the GOP nominee, he would do better than George McGovern did at least in his own state. Note that he does about 10% better than Huckabee or Romney; take your pick on which one is closer to being "Generic Republican". You can play little games to see how much difference the Favorite Son effect had in the same State in 1972 (contrast 1972 to 1976 or North Dakota to South Dakota in 1972).



Notably, Obama not only defeats Sarah Palin, but also Newt Gingrich. He does not beat either Huckabee  or Romney.    A 42% approval rating is pretty good for a state that the incumbent lost about 54-45. The state would probably be close to an Obama win against anyone but John Thune  (safe for the GOP) or Sarah Palin (GOP disaster!)

2012 GE matchups:

37% Obama
57% Thune

41% Obama
47% Huckabee

40% Obama
46% Romney

44% Obama
42% Gingrich

48% Obama
40% Palin

Obama Approval Rating:

42-49

Thune Approval Rating:

58-31

Favorable Ratings:

40-30 Huckabee
35-34 Romney
31-43 Gingrich
37-55 Palin

PPP surveyed 1,045 South Dakota voters from January 28th to 30th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-3.0%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_SD_0201513.pdf

Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)
<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?

Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!

District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama,  3                
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 109
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   64
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 26
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 71
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 41
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   18



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I am adding a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

(This time I am recalling Virginia, where in November no Republican stood to win against Obama in a PPP poll.)

District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3                  
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 109
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   64
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 26
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 10
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  62
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 41
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  18  

[pbrower2a]

I wonder how the situation in Egypt will effect, if at all, his numbers.

It's a high-risk, low-reward situation. The President must underplay his role.

[pbrower2a]

Arizona, PPP

Clinton won the state once (1996); Truman won it (1948). The only State not formerly part of the Confederacy to vote for Goldwater in 1964, it did go to its Favorite Son in 1964. It would have been close in 2008 had it not had a Favorite Son that year, which it won't have this time.   It looks like a close state in 2012, and the GOP certainly can't afford that. 45% approval now? That suggests about a 50-50 chance either way.

Two of the four most obvious potential GOP nominees win based on current polling; one ties, and Palin loses this state. But that is before the re-election campaign begins.

President Obama can win without Arizona; he'd have to win all  states that Dubya never won, Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, and New Mexico first, which themselves would ensure a bare Obama victory. He'd also win Virginia, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, and either Indiana or Missouri first and perhaps Georgia to have a real shot at Arizona.    
  
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_AZ_0202806.pdf

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Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)
<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?

Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!

District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama,  3                
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 109
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   64
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 26
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 83
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 41
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   18



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I am adding a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

(This time I am recalling Virginia, where in November no Republican stood to win against Obama in a PPP poll.)

District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3                  
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 109
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   64
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 26
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 22
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  62
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 41
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  18  

[pbrower2a]

Modified from a prior, now deleted post, to save space and recognize a significant change:  


South Carolina (PPP):

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_SC_02021210.pdf

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A potential Favorite Son wins the state, and  both Huckabee or Romney do about as well. Gingrich loses a state that borders his and has similar demographics.  Sarah Palin? Any Republican intent on defeating President Obama had better look elsewhere.

Republicans must win this state decisively to win the Presidency -- and I would best describe the state as "shaky Republican".  

FL (Quinnipiac):

47-49

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1297.xml?ReleaseID=1555

....

PPP just had a poll for the US Senate in California, and Diane Feinstein crushes everyone. I wouldn't lose any sleep over any chances of the GOP to win California in the Presidential election.  




 

Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)
<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?

Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!

District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama,  3                
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 109
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   64
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 53
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 63
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 41
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   18



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I am adding a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white or pale blue -- maybe medium blue, as I have seen only one state in that category -- in which who the nominee is matters. This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries.

District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3                  
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 109
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   64
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 55
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 10
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  33
close, but Obama wins against a 'blunder' of a nominee 23
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 38
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  18  

[pbrower2a]

He has handled Egypt pretty well up to now, so I don't see why his numbers would slide due to it. I guess Americans just like interventionist foreign policy.

It's one of those situations of a no win situation for any President.


Also, Obama has a penchant for losing ground whenever a foreign crisis erupts going back to the Georgia invasion by Russia.

The Georgia invasion was during the Bush administration. (mid-2008)

Also, Obama's handling of Egypt has been beyond incompetent.  That being said, if this is a change in approval of Obama, it happened when the major event was Mubarek/Army pushback and Obama's open call for regime change in Egypt.  Not that this is any proof of any change, of course.  Got to wait a couple of weeks.

It's hard to intervene  in a revolution and not get burned badly. Incompetent? What, really, can the President do? Whose side does the US government want to take? Even if the US had troops in Egypt, this would be "stay in your barracks" time.

Regime change is a certainty in Egypt. The question is whether moderates or anti-American interests predominate. Hosni Mubarak is beyond any possibility of propping up.

So far there seems to be little anti-Americanism. This isn't Iran in 1979.

[pbrower2a]

GA Insight 20/20:

47% Obama
43% Palin

50% Romney
44% Obama

50% Huckabee
45% Obama

47% Gingrich
45% Obama

...

2008 vote:

50% McCain
42% Obama

https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&pid=explorer&chrome=true&srcid=0B_KEK8-LWmzhOGM5OTQzNDMtNjdjZC00OWZlLThlMTgtZDFjM2JjN2Q2OWM1&hl=en&pli=1

Pollster with some promise.

Unfortunately this poll asks for an approval rating ranging from 1 (very poor) to 5 (very good), which does not boil down to an "Approve/Disapprove" response very easily. Ratings tend either toward "1" or "5", as the demographics of Georgia might suggest. if you ignore the "3" category as an indistinguishable middle, the results probably boil down to  42-50, which is about what I would guess for now.

Georgia looks as if it would vote roughly as it did in 2008, barring major changes in basic realities in America between now and November 2012. But I am putting an "S" on Georgia because the results are not so clearly translated into "approve/disapprove".

Huckabee and Romney would win by single-digit margins, and Gingrich by only a narrow margin. Sarah Palin is becoming a sick political joke; she loses about as Huckabee or Romney would win.  Gingrich does weakly enough in his home state that I can only wonder whether he would fare well in some Southern states not already polled. 




 

Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)
<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?

Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!

District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama,  3                
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 109
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   64
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 53
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 63
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 57
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   18



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I am adding a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white or pale blue -- maybe medium blue, as I have seen only one state in that category -- in which who the nominee is matters. This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries.

District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3                  
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 109
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   64
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 55
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 10
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  33
close, but Obama wins against a 'blunder' of a nominee 39
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 38
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  18  

[pbrower2a]

So what do you think of the "1-2-3-4-5" poll by Insight 20/20 ? It seems better than the "EGFP" polls that we have seen. Do you think my tentative interpretation of this new pollster useful -- that one can interpret (if such is explained) that

1 - very poor/strong disapprove
2 - substandard/disapprove
3 - middling and likely undecided
4 - good/approve
5 - very good/strongly approve

with categories "1" and "2" as "total disapprove" and "4" and "5" as total approve" with category "3" as effectively undecided?

(It is possible that someone could offer a similar poll with inverse instructions, so be careful.)

[pbrower2a]

Could be the snowstorms.

More likely Egypt.  The prospect of 'losing' a shaky ally that we never really 'owned' is raw meat for the neo-con wing of the GOP.

This is not eastern Europe in 1989. Egypt begins with a government generally friendly to the US and its economic interests. The best that could happen in eastern Europe was a miracle, and that happened; the worst was either Soviet intervention or the failure of democracy. The worst that could have happened in 1989 was in essence that nothing really changed. In Egypt, the best thing that can happen is that a genuine democracy emerges and that a long-time ally of the US gets to leave for some safe haven, and the new Egypt remains pro-capitalist and sympathetic to American objectives in the US (including a shaky relationship with Israel). The best that can happen for the Egyptian people isn;t going to make life better for Americans. The worst? Iran 1979 all over.

[pbrower2a]

The Golden State offers no golden opportunities for the Republicans in its 55 electoral votes. Fundraising, maybe, but that's about it.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I shall spare the gory details for the right-wingers as if there were a mercy rule.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_CA_0203424.pdf




 

Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)
<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?

Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!

District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama,  3                
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 109
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   64
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 53
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 63
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 57
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   18



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I am adding a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white or pale blue -- maybe medium blue, as I have seen only one state in that category -- in which who the nominee is matters. This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries.

District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3                  
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 109
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   64
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 55
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 10
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  33
close, but Obama wins against a 'blunder' of a nominee 39
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 38
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  18  

[pbrower2a]

Vanderbilt University has polled Tennessee recently and found Obama with less than 50% approval in the state. I cannot find exact numbers though:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The poll was conducted from Jan. 17 to Jan. 23 through statewide random telephone surveys. A total of 710 Tennessee adults responded with a margin of error at plus or minus 3.7 percent.

http://news.vanderbilt.edu/2011/02/economy-including-jobs-tennesseans%E2%80%99-no-1-priority-in-inaugural-vanderbilt-poll/

Imprecise, so not usable. In any event, Tennessee is one of the possibilities for the PPP poll of next week. The state would be interesting because traditionally, Tennessee has been one of the more liberal states in the South. The state has had Al Gore and Jim Sasser as senators, and came close to electing Harold Ford in 2006.

If any southern state west of the Appalachians has any chance of going for Obama it is Tennessee.

[pbrower2a]

Tennessee (Vanderbilt University/The Tennessean):

44% Approve
54% Disapprove

With 710 respondents to the Vanderbilt Poll, the margin of error for the poll is +/- 3.7 %. The poll was conducted by calling a random sample of landline telephone numbers over a period of seven days, from Jan. 17 to Jan. 23.

John Geer, professor of political science, and Josh Clinton, associate professor of political science, co-directed the poll.

http://www.tennessean.com/article/20110207/NEWS02/102070343/Tennesseans-skeptical-President-Obama-Sarah-Palin?odyssey=tab|topnews|text|FRONTPAGE

Higher approval than the vote was in 2008. Tennessee looks contestable in 2012. Should President Obama pick up the Clinton voters who rejected Gore in 2000 and Kerry in 2004
and were leery of him in 2008, then 2012 has the potential for an Obama landslide with over 400 electoral votes.  PPP may poll Tennessee next week, so there could be corroboration. The GOP absolutely needs this state, and at this stage the state is shaky.  

Sarah Palin is beginning to seem a joke, as President Obama beats her handily in this state. Southern white people may still be leery of voting for a sane and liberal black man, but they might be even more leery of voting for a crazy white woman.



 

Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)
<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?

Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!

District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama,  3                
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 109
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   64
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 53
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 74
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 57
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   18



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I am adding a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white or pale blue -- maybe medium blue, as I have seen only one state in that category -- in which who the nominee is matters. This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries.

District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3                  
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 109
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   64
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 55
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 10
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  33
close, but Obama wins against a 'blunder' of a nominee 50
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 38
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  18  

[pbrower2a]

One thing I noticed about Obama's dip in the polls (at least in Gallup), ALL of the decline in support from Obama came from independents, Democrats and Republicans have remained constant in their approval of Obama in the past few days.

Probably Egypt.  The President really can do nothing.  Almost everything is up to a capricious dictator  who can't decide whether he wants to hold onto power at risk of his life -- or flee. 

[pbrower2a]

Perhaps independents are just very fickle.

Fickle? No. They want good results and aren't patient enough to accept excuses. They are much more demanding than are partisan supporters.

[pbrower2a]

PPP, Colorado, where 2012 looks more likely to resemble 2008 than 2004 in the Presidential election.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_CO_0208424.pdf

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To save space, I am also putting New Mexico in. This is apparently not a swing state in 2012.

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As in California and Colorado, Sarah Palin is about as unfavorable as President Obama is in Idaho, Utah, or Wyoming.

Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)
<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?

Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!

District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama,  3                
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 114
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   73
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 53
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 74
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 57
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   18



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I am adding a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white or pale blue -- maybe medium blue, as I have seen only one state in that category -- in which who the nominee is matters. This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries.

District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3                  
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 114
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   73
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 55
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 10
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  33
close, but Obama wins against a 'blunder' of a nominee 50
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 38
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  18  

[pbrower2a]

I plan on moving out of CO in a few years, probably to Texas or somewhere down south, thank god! CO is the next CA, believe it or not.

Arizona demographics are just behind Colorado, followed by Texas.